TNS BMRB’s weekly poll is out this morning with topline figures of CON 31%(+1), LAB 42%(-2), LDEM 11%(+3), UKIP 8%(+1), Others 8%. Changes are from last week and don’t show any significant movement.

Meanwhile this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, so right back to the normal YouGov Labour lead of ten points or so. While there is no obvious ims with the Sunday Times poll the regular economic trackers did show some significant movement following the GDP figures – most notably on the proportion of people who thought the government’s cuts were good or bad for the economy (36% thought they were good for the economy, up 4; 42% thought they were bad for the economy, down 9).


46 Responses to “TNS-BMRB – CON 31, LAB 42, LD 11, UKIP 8”

  1. Three post GDP announcement polls all showing double-digit Labour leads, even though some of the economic sub-question responses are a little less dire for the coalition.

    I know I’m stating the obvious here, but VI ratings won’t change until people feel materially better off and more confident about the future and, even then, if they have other reasons to dislike the government, there’s no guarantee that voters will necessarily reward the coalition parties for improved economic circumstances.

    These polls suggest to me that there are a myriad of reasons why voters aren’t warming to this government, and many of them probably have nothing to do with growth figures, borrowing and the size of the deficit. My hunch is that incompetence, unlikeability of leading government figures and a perception of aloofness are hurting them far more than some observers seem to think.

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  2. At the moment yes. When push comes to shove it will be the economy and confidence in the oppositon vs the status quo

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  3. I agree with Crossbat, recovery for gov VI will come when more people start feeling like they personally are doing alright.

    Also things like the Andrew Mitchell Scandal have had a lasting impact I feel. It really has set an “us and them” culture. The fact that he was replaced by another one of these privileged elite just harms them more.

    They need to diversify their top table a bit, get away from public school boys who went to Oxbridge.

    Obviously Maggie T was a divisive figure, but the Tory party really does need to go back to those sort of backgrounds. People with humble backgrounds who aspire to greater things. Yes she still went to Oxbridge, but her degree was in Chemistry.

    The truth is, the Tory party does have members who come from more humble beginnings, Portillio (ok his time is probably up now) David Davis, Nadine Dorris. But instead there is this born to rule class that really are a cancer for the Tory party. They need to be able to connect with ordinary people again.

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  4. Apparently banks have increased their lending to individuals which may be made people feel more optimistic.
    Ed’s line on cutting payments to Europe may have helped people realise some cuts can be made.

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  5. I think the next two years are going to be very tough for both government parties, I think we will see a cascade effect which will filter through and show up in the polls over the next few years, as the public realise that the scrounger down the road everyone has been talking about is actually their own family member, and one thing for sure they are not going to be happy at all…

    I don’t know how much of an effect it will be, but I reckon 5 – 7 million people are going to be very unhappy, and I don’t think they are all unemployed scroungers, in fact I would guess most will be hardworking family and friends of seriously sick and disabled people who have just found out they have got to pick up the slack whether financial or time with care needs…

    The other concern is the 130,000 public sector people who are losing their jobs each year for the next three years (government figures), that is without any from the private sector, which I also think are going to increase as businesses realise the flat lined economy is not going to improve; at least not as much as they wanted and so they start to lay off or cut hours, I think the announcement first by Ford and now UBS will start that slide as many more decide it is time to cut the slack.

    Of course there is always a period between people losing jobs and then those showing on the unemployment figures, but once they start it will be bad news for everybody

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  6. @ Man in the Middle (from the previous thread)

    “At the moment, I am very clearly working class, my Mum works on the till in a supermarket, and my dad is a mini cab driver, I am currently unemployed on JSA. But, in a few months time I hope to be on a Chartered Accountancy training course, the average fully trained chartered accountant earns 90K plus an average of 21k bonus. When I get to this stage, will I still be working class, or will I be considered a higher class?”

    Congratulations! That’s excellent news. I think that socio-economic class is mostly about self-identification and you should identify with what makes you comfortable.

    @ Amber Star (from the previous thread)

    “Really; I thought they believe he was born in Kenya. I don’t why they’d get all huffy about him being a Brit. We are the 51st state after all.”

    Well I was trying to make a joke (a bad one) about Kenya being a former British colony. I forget though when exactly Kenya gained independence (I thought it was the mid 60′s but may have been earlier…..I should remember these things).

    Actually, when Newt Gingrich and other right wing psychos like him talk desparagingly of Obama as being a radical anti-colonialist (because his dad may have been), I think they’re being somewhat unpatriotic. Because, the Founding Fathers, who we all worship were all radical anti-colonialists (just like Barack Obama Sr.).

    @ Billy Bob (from the previous thread)

    “Thankfully Sandy has been downgraded to a monster super-storm. I was getting a bit nervous around the time of landfall… but there are no reports of a major disaster in Atlantic City or elsewhere. Power could be down in New York for up to ten days it is being reported.”

    I was feeling nervous too but it looks like things are not quite as bad previously thought.

    “Chris Christie was saying he doesn’t have a beef with the guy (Langford) – but he is in longterm dispute with someone he calls a ‘rogue major’ and says is impossible to work with. There are other political dimensions to this though:

    h
    ttp://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/10/29/romney-wants-to-disband-fema-do-you-think-n-j-governor-chris-christie-agrees-with-the-gop-today/”

    Whether they have a beef or not, Lorenzo Langford should have followed Christie’s orders. Evacuation orders are evacuation orders and natural disasters are not a time to start going rogue. Hopefully, nothing bad has resulted from it but it’s not something that should have occurred.

    As for other political ramifications, I tend to doubt it. People aren’t going to be looking at things like this. Romney wanting to disband FEMA is just more evidence of the fact that Romney is an idiot and an ideologue…..something we knew already. There’s no need to attack him on this and doing so by anyone would be a major mistake.

    If I had to bet, I would say that within the next few days, Romney will force an error on this and attempt to politicize the storm and its cleanup. And it will probably backfire.

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  7. You and Yours on radio 4 today was rather interesting as they were discussing
    TheGDP figures and how they have impacted,or not on various members of the public.All anecdotal I know but the consensus seemed to be that the recent
    Drop in employment was based on large numbers of part time jobs and that
    These people are really struggling financially.Also the majority were concerned
    About rising prices,certainly no feel good factor yet.

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  8. @CROSSBAT11
    `My hunch is that incompetence, unlikeability of leading government figures and a perception of aloofness are hurting them far more than some observers seem to think.`

    You make a good point…I read on another blog that economic recovery is essential but not sufficient for a Tory win in 2015.

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  9. Depiste all troubles and cock-ups by the tories, their VI is not that much lower than the 36% they got in the 2010 election. Their lost votes seem to have gone to UKIP – so many of them may come back in GE.
    The big move has been lib dem voters switching to labour in digust at cleggs ‘betrayal’.
    So I feel that the next election is not going to be about fickle labour/tory swing voters. Labour dont need a single tory voter from last time to switch sides – they just need to keep hold of enough of their lib dem defectors.
    In addition I’m failing to see how the tories can increase their vote on 2010 – when they had everything in their favour. Their problem is that even if they equal their 2010 vote, labour can still easily win a majority thanks to lib dem deserters.
    To win cameron need to win increase the tory share of the vote on 2010 (last governmnet to do this was labour in 74 and only marginally and shortly after a gerneral election) AND Clegg has to win back a significent chunk of his lost voters.
    Given all this – Baring a political earthquake – I cant see anything else but a labour majority.

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  10. Ash tree alert,good news,sort of.Apparently 2% of Ash trees in Denmark are
    Totally resistant to the Ash Tree die back fungus.So restocking is possible.
    Different to Dutch Elm disease where there is 100% infection.

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  11. I fully realise this comment will be wasted on the usual class warriors who get off on the politics of envy. However, here goes, it is no more David Cameron’s fault that he was born into money and privilege, than it is Ed Miliband’s
    fault he is Jewish. Neither situation is a crime. It does not guarantee goodness or greatness, nor the opposite of those things. Frankly, I think the Tories need to get personal with the Labourites who push this kind of inverted snobbery.

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  12. Roland,welcome back!

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  13. crossbat11

    “These polls suggest to me that there are a myriad of reasons why voters aren’t warming to this government, and many of them probably have nothing to do with growth figures, borrowing and the size of the deficit.”

    Economic data has no effect at all on VI except it may engender in an extended period of consistenty bad news a feeling that the government should be doing something about something, and maybe is at fault.

    Even then there are many who will chose to blame their favourite scapegoats – immigrants, the EU or little green men from Mars.

    Most will have no economic data based explanation for a change in feel good/bad and, but they will notce if there is a steady drip, drip, drip of bad news on radio or TV even if hey understand none of it.

    “My hunch is that incompetence, unlikeability of leading government figures and a perception of aloofness are hurting them far more than some observers seem to think.”

    Very likely.

    What is obviously absurd is to claim that a marginal change in economic data directly and immediately causes a significant movement in VI in a poll already completed but not yet published.

    All of us who post here spend more time in a week thinking about economic aspects of political events, or even politics in general than the average voter spends in a year. The extent to which understanding of the concepts varies is similar.

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  14. @Reggieside

    Given all this – Baring a political earthquake – I cant see anything else but a labour majority.

    Well Reggie, I think you make a very brave forecast in the light of when the next GE falls. To misquote a great statesman and champion of the plebs, “if a week is a long time, what the hell is 2 and a half years”? It is well known on this site, that I would rather have spent 6 years in Colditz Castle, than see a Labour win, but some of these “no hope Tory” comments may be wildly delusional .

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  15. No Roland, we need less Oxford educated public school boys, on both sides, not less. Not a ban altogether, but parliament is supposed to be representative of the country as a whole, it’s not their fault they were born into that no, but it does hinder them in their job, as someone who’s never had a care in the world can’t relate to the working class. You need people at the top table who can relay the impacts of their decisions to them.

    For example increasing the tax on hot food, they didn’t see it as a big deal because they’ve never had problems feeding their kids. or the granny tax, they’re not too worried about their retirment, they were genuinely shocked by the reaction, if you had a few more people at the top table from humbler backgrounds they would have known not to try such stupid moves.

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  16. @Ann

    Many thanks Ann, nice to hear your “voice” again

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  17. I meant to say “we need less Oxford educated public school boys, on both sides, not more”

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  18. @MANINTHEMIDDLE
    Parliament already has an excellent cross section of people. We have our ex miners and David Davies.
    Labour have many ex union officials and Hattie and the Miliband boys. I personally was a grammar school boy, when I had kids, their hot food was cooked by their mother. BTW, if I cut myself, my blood is Tory Blue, but my background is South Yorkshire coal mining & Dorset agricultural labouring. I wish to God I had been born with the money and advantages of the Milibands.

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  19. Roland,and the same to you my dear.I fondly remember how you compared
    ONe of my first posts to being savaged by a dead sheep.Such fun.

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  20. @R IN N

    Sorry mate don’t agree.

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  21. ROLAND

    You just don’t get it -what we need ( as they say) is more Bog Standard Comprehensive School persons in government -and the Bogger the better.

    This is what “ordinary” people want. . Politicians who have been to Oxford or Cambridge can’t understand “ordinary” people because …….ummm…….they don’t have any of those at Oxford or Cambridge & they have just learned a lot of stuff which ordinary people don’t know about, so people who went to Oxford or Cambridge shouldn’t be politicians.

    They should be other things……..like……….ummmm.

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  22. @Roland Haines

    Off the top of your heard, without researching, how many currently full cabinet ministers do you know from humble beginnings? You mentioned Labour having a lot, but they’re not in government unfortunately.

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  23. Colin I know you were trying to be sarcastic in your post, but you’ve hit the nail on the head. People don’t want to see the hallways of power filled with toffs, some toffs are fine, but you can have too many.

    People want to see people like them in power, people who can relate to them, people who are REPRESENTATIVE. People like Alan Johnson, he was a postman, and he made it to Cabinet, inspirational stories like that are what we want to see. Even GBrown as much as I think he flopped as PM, it was nice to see that he was at least in touch with how people his decisions were affecting most.

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  24. MiM

    I think you are right.

    People who go to Oxford & Cambridge come out as Toffs-even when they went in as Plebs.It is horrendous.

    ….Plus they have learned all this useless stuff which is no good to Ordinary People.

    …I mean other countries don’t have well educated politicians………do they?

    ……..well anyway , we don’t want them .

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  25. @Colin
    Yer, I fink.

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  26. hmmm. think I will apply for a pass-out and go for a pint.
    Nite all

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  27. @MIDDLEMAN
    You may have missed Labour are not in power due to being voted out in 2010. Unfortunately their sons and daughters representing the toiling masses, pissed off the toiling masses. Oxbridge educated people have invariably
    led both parties. Did it make Heath a bad person ? Did it make Gaitskill a bad person?
    [Snip - AW]

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  28. @Ozwald

    Seconded.

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  29. COLIN.
    I was sent to study History at Oxford University, and have taught in state schools ever since I left. No Toff me,

    Our son received his degree at Oxford last Friday. No Toff he.

    ROLAND.
    As for Heath. OMG as they say, these days. Yes, I suspect he was not on the side of the angels.

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  30. Is there any polling on how many voters out there are aware of GDP figures and what it actually means ?

    I find the notion that voters were influenced by last week’s figures hilarious .

    Most of them don’t even know what it means thus Labour’s descent into negative American style attack dog politicking , even on Newsnight , to try and make them seem relevant in a very complicated global situation .

    As the mid term period passes , the Opposition will come under more detailed scrutiny from the media of their economic policies and , vitally , the figures .

    Labour has whispered it so far , but they intend to continue making cuts and will not be reversing the Coalition’s . The public sector wage freeze will also continue .

    How voters react to this , never mind the Unions will be interesting

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  31. [Snip - AW]

    I hate it when people deliberately use the ole strawman stuff. Ex-miners or typists or Eton schoolboys in govt is absolutely fine – bloody truck-loads of a single group isn’t.

    It is – in that awful jargon – a no-brainer

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  32. Rolly is back, Rolly is back, hello, hello…

    Oh gawd, I’ve just realised that is a Gary Glitter ditty.

    Now then, now then………

    Blimey, I’m into Savile mode now.

    Best get back to listening to the Villa thumping Swindon.

    lol

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  33. Paulcroft agree with exactly what you just said, although I didn’t see whatever it was that was snipped.

    Eton schoolboys in govt is absolutely fine – truck-loads of them isn’t.

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  34. Roland Haines

    “… it is no more David Cameron’s fault that he was born into money and privilege, than it is Ed Miliband’s
    fault he is Jewish. Neither situation is a crime. It does not guarantee goodness or greatness, nor the opposite of those things.”

    Quite so. I completely agree.

    A previous generation of old money would have deplored the blatent prioritsation of self interest; the lack of understanding of and value in the common good; the disregard of any sense of duty to the nation or the wider community; the absence ot the notion that those who were more fortunate whether through inherited wealth or one’s own efforts and good fortune, and worse, worse, worst of all, the bad taste to flaunt ones privilege and wealth that characterises our self-styled “elite”

    That’s why the alleged Mitchell offence is so significant. It encapsulates the values characteristic of the indecently over-rewarded.

    Hardly any of us, [2 SD] whether for intellect or size in shoes are very different from average and half ot these need help with their daily lives.

    Money does not make you part of a genuine elite even if you are Conrad Black or Jimmy Saville. Neither is wealth the only form of reward or basis of job satisfaction.

    As often as he comes into work, my cardiac surgeon meets someone who has been unconscious for four of the five hours they have been together and who is deeply appreciative of his skill as are many of his own colleagues.

    That’s elite. That’s job satisfaction.

    The rank is but the guinea’s stamp,
    The Man’s the gowd for a’ that.

    The party of the right understood that when they were patricians rather than people with new money and engaged in trade as wallpaper sellers or whatever Then they were Chrstian Democrats familiar with Matthw 25.

    Now the party has been taken over by fundamentalist believers in a cult or faith system, gamblers, money lauderers, drug dealers, tax dodgers and worse.

    I could use more money, but I couldn’t envy these people because I wouldn’t want to mix socially with them.

    Then let us pray that come it may,
    (As come it will for a’ that,)
    That Sense and Worth, o’er a’ the earth,
    Shall bear the gree, an’ a’ that.
    For a’ that, an’ a’ that,
    It’s coming yet for a’ that,
    That Man to Man, the world o’er,
    Shall brothers be for a’ that.

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  35. Ronald

    Even in jest you show your true colours no ordinary Stalag for you it as to be an Officers POW camp.

    I would rather have spent 6 years in Colditz Castle, than see a Labour win,

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  36. PAUL CROFT

    @” Eton schoolboys in govt is absolutely fine – bloody truck-loads of a single group isn’t.”

    So does a motorbike & tandem load of OLd Etonians meet with your approval? :-

    “With Sir George Young leaving the cabinet, the number of Etonians falls to two.( Cameron & Letwin)”

    The Guardian.

    THe Guardian

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  37. You missed some of my quote [Snip - AW]

    I didn’t imply govt was full of ex-miners, typists OR etonians. I used all of them as examples to illustrate a general truth. [Snip]

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  38. educational background really has very little to do with ability (or perceived ability) to govern. Take my brother (please, someone). We went to a comp school in South Wales, he ended up getting a first from Cambridge. There is no way he would find his way into government – not because of “either side” of his education, but because the boy is an idiot.

    For the record he campaigns for the Lib Dems and describes himself as an anarchist.

    However, there is something particularly “rub your nose in it” seeping out of Downing Street at the moment, and that really does not smell too good. It is that, rather than background people are picking up on.

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  39. Col:

    No typists. Not ONE.

    Arsenal 4-4 from 4-0 so more important things call.

    Plus Inspector Molbano on i-player

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  40. Paul,so pleased to see another Moltanbano fan.His house n the series is
    Available to rent.We did consider it,but had a rather odd holiday in Sicily a few
    Years ago,so decided it is better to just enjoy vicariously instead.

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  41. Ann: Apart from the series being great I think the actor is superb – especially at non-speaking reactive stuff. He is utterly convincing. the small comedic bits are a lovely bonus as well

    paul

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  42. @ Roland

    Nice 2 C U. :-)

    From ComRes (not my favourite pollster) but nevertheless:

    “Labour’s 44 per cent rating is the highest it has achieved since the election. Sixty-seven per cent of voters agreed that the Prime Minister and Mr Osborne were out of touch with ordinary people, with 26 per cent disagreeing. Even 40 per cent of Tory voters viewed the two men as out of touch.”

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  43. Okay – I’m bored of trying to moderate this into a sensible discussion rather than a silly partisan back and forth, in hindsight I should have nipped it in the bud to begin with. Enough now.

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  44. Enough of what exactly?

    Anyway, on to more important matters than whether perception of govt remoteness from the general population has any effect on pollig stats, it was nice to see that the Arse ran out as fairly straightforward 7-5 winners in the end.

    I do enjoy the old 12-goal thriller.

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  45. @ChasGlas

    I think once the public – unions included – realise that Labour or anyone else for that matter cannot make all or most of the nasty cuts go away, then we will quite quickly see rather more equal polling. However, there may be nuances in what is cut and whether something cheaper and almost as good is substituted, and of course perceptions of the parties and all the other non-economic reasons for voting.

    Did you see the announcement about the Met Police cuts? Closing police desks and putting “contact points” in all sorts of odd places, possibly with limited hours? Mmm, sounds like that might not be popular.

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  46. This poll seems to have caused at lot of comment in many other comment sites.
    My question is, if someone who does not hold a party political bias can answer it, How much confidence can we place on this and previous polls, during 2012, that show Labour in the lead mostly in double digits?

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