ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 33%(-2), LAB 44%(+6), LDEM 12%(-3). Changes are from ComRes’s previous telephone poll, which was conducted straight after the Liberal Democrat conference and, as you may remember, showed Labour dropping 4 points to a rather incongruous 3 point lead. In contrast this poll equals the biggest Labour lead ComRes have shown since the election, last seen in July this year.

The poll was conducted over the weekend, so after the GDP figures, suggesting no positive economic effect on government support here.


79 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 33, LAB 44, LDEM 12”

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  1. Ozwald – the proportion of people who worry they are likely to lose their home is extremely unlikely to affect voting intention. While it is the lowest since 2010, the change is tiny.

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  2. @AW
    Fair point. Housing does not seem to stir up strong feelings on this site..

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  3. Ozwald

    ” Fair point. Housing does not seem to stir up strong feelings on this site..”

    Ha, they were frothin at the mouth when I suggested that house prices would fall by 50% in real terms over the next ten years

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  4. Greek crackdown on dissent continues.

    “Tension rises between Greek government and media after TV presenters are suspended over criticism of public order minister”

    You know where

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  5. I very much hope the 7 or 8 % whom intend to vote UKIP,
    will be thrilled to see Ed Balls as chancellor. From my experience of UKIP supporters, they probably do not see the connection.

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  6. Second thoughts, it will probably be a Lib/Lab coalition and Cable will be chancellor. Still a brilliant prospect for UKIP supporters though.

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  7. @ NICK P

    “it was the effect of everybody except rich old southerners being too busy to do polls at the weekend.”

    I am old (66)
    I am a house owner, 2 car owner and do not need state handouts to live comfortably. I guess by your lights this makes me rich.
    I am a southerner.

    I was not polled as you suggest on that weekend.

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  8. Roland

    I think they don’t care, the telegraph is full of comments saying that the Tories have become socialists and folk should vote ukip. Odd but “nowt so queer as folk”

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  9. Good Morning Roland.

    Miliband, Balls and Alexander are allying with the tory right over the EU Budget apparently; maybe this is just political opportunism.

    Apparently the PM and GO are keen to increase the UK contributions in line with inflation.

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  10. @RIN
    Agreed. Balir & Brown did nothing much to solve the housing shortage. Nor did their predecessors. If any government built lots of social homes then supply & demand in the housing market would be affected. Values may fall and private rents may drop. Not likely to be popular so if there is a solution it may have to be spread over decades.

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  11. Cl45 it’s clearly a tactical move for Labour to be seen to back Cameron’s potential veto, this time they seek to deprive him of any bounce at all, clearly acknowledging that he could bounce again, and it might not be a one off as others stated last night.

    I’m surprised to see gov figures not rising even the slightest after the economic news. Usually good news like that does have some impact on the governing party(s).

    As for the EU budget, is it possible to make an agreement that Britain personally does not pay anymore in but we allow other countries to do so? I know the EU budget is worked on a formula, but if Merkel wants this compromise to increase the budget, surely we can say, we will allow you to increase your own contributions, but we’re freezing the amount we pay, so in real terms it’s going down. Surely that’s got to be more appealing to the EU than the current deadlock? Cameron may do well back home for being seen to be obstructive, but I feel that he should be open to compromise, whenever the chance for a veto arises, allow the rest of the EU to go on ahead as they wish, but get something back for Britain in return.

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  12. MintheM:

    Nice image of DC “bouncing again”. I’m surprised he has the time.

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  13. @PAULCROFT
    `I’m surprised he has the time`

    When he wants a break from the fruit ninja…

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  14. statgeek

    @RM “Is there a shy-UKIP effect or is it that on-line polls are more likely to attract the “angry, white, male” demographic that also seems to UKIP’s core.”

    It might be a simple case that the average UKIP voter has more technological know-how.

    Not sure where angry, white, male bit comes from. Isn’t that the BNP?

    Well the “angry, white male” thing is a bit of a (US) cliche hence the quotes. But it’s clear that UKIP are attracting some people that the BNP did in the past – which isn’t to say that that most of the people that UKIP are attracting are ex-BNP or share those views of course.

    Certainly UKIP voters are disproportionately male (10% men, 6% women in today’s YouGov) and they seem to score lower among non-whites among what polling I have seen. As to ‘angry’ you can judge that from the comments sections of an on-line newspaper near you.

    Apart from being male, the profile of UKIP voters isn’t automatically tech-y (it’s notably older and a bit C2DE), but I suspect they are more likely to use the internet to express their views (not just on politics) and being more likely to be retired would help that. So it may be that they are over-represented in on-line panels.

    UKIP-ers will be difficult to control for by the pollsters – many will have not voted UKIP last time and pollsters tend not to weight UKIP voters separately. So it could be that the 8-9% we are seeing for them in on-line polls is an over estimate and the telephone polls we are seeing such as this ComRes (5%), or the latest ICM (not available!) or Ipsos-MORI (6%) are more accurate. Certainly the constant disparity need some explaining.

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  15. @ Roland

    Re UKIP this is a perfectly normal trend when you have disatisfaction with your normal 1st choice party being in government whatever your political views are.

    Obviously it is a very valid question when potential UKIP voters look at a straight choice of Osborne v Balls and many may well come back into the fold. Equally some will say ‘I am so fed up with this current lot that it makes no difference and I want real change’.

    I had a similar thing with Greens and Labour- voting Green most of the time during Blair’s reign because I felt there was no difference between Labour and Tory that was significant enough to make me vote Labour. To an extent my gut tells me this is still true for me but there is enough of a difference to come back into the Labour fold (not having a Green candidate standing in Wigan helps!).

    The same thing could be said of naturally Labour voters who voted Lib Dem last time (tactically or otherwise)- they felt strongly enough that Labour did not deserve to be re-elected. Those ones seem to be back with Labour for now.

    I think this is just a natural swing when you are disappointed with whatever government is in. If a UKIP voter decides the key issue is getting out of Europe and the rest is just moving the deckchairs around then that is the reason they will stick with UKIP regardless of letting Balls become chancellor and if UKIP gets some successes along the way then that firms up their belief it isn’t just a wasted vote.

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  16. CHRISLANE

    @”maybe this is just political opportunism.”

    Maybe bears defecate in the woods :-)

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  17. ROLAND

    @”I am old (66)”

    A mere stripling Roly :-)

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  18. COLIN.
    Do you know why your comment about bears in the woods is not in Moderation?

    School holidays are here, and children may be watching.

    Good tactics though from the Labour Bears.

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  19. Thank goodness the polls have gone back to norm always need a good crowing to get up in the morning, must fix that alarm clock.

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  20. CHRISLANE

    Your are funny .

    Children know about the bears-they use words which would be moderated.

    Yes-good tactics-but I think bad strategy. The Hare had tactics I remember-but the Tortoise had a strategy.

    I see a growing list of Labour Janus Mask moments . I feel sure they are being written down somewhere.

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  21. CHRIS LANE

    I feel sure that you & Ed are aware of this :-

    “If the prime minister vetoed the budget at a special summit on November 22, the rules say the budget ceiling for 2013 would simply be repeated – plus inflation – for 2014.”

    FT

    After all Ed has some familiarity with the procedure :-

    “. EU budgets are agreed in seven-year tranches. The last major negotiation therefore happened on Labour’s watch, when Balls was Gordon Brown’s consigliere and Alexander was Minister of State for Europe.
    Not only did the Blair government agree to a substantial overall increase – unbelievably, it also gave away a large portion of Britain’s rebate in exchange for a promise that the CAP would be reformed, a promise which, seven years on, remains unfulfilled. As a result of those changes, Britain’s net contribution rose by 54 per cent in 2011. ”

    DT.

    I wonder if Ed’s “tactics” include this sort of change in his party ranks ? :-

    “On Monday, Gisela Stuart, a Labour MP who helped draft the EU constitution, said Britain should leave the union altogether. She told the BBC’s Analysis programme that others in the party may agree with her but were too afraid to say so.”

    DT

    This is Gisela Stuart-not Bill Cash :-)

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  22. I would need a few more polls before I would accept there was no lift for the government on the, for most voters, esoteric growth figure, but I would have doubted there would be for that reason.

    The slow creeping ‘shambles’ effect of the rail franchise debacle is another matter. Judging how people reacted to the MPs’ expenses, I suspect the series of reports that are to emanate, will have a coruscating effect on positive ‘confidence’ opinion, which is in any case already very negative.

    As the tens, perhaps hundreds of millions are shelled out, the articles about what that would have bought will flow, as with the anti-AV campaign.

    I thus disagree with Labour supporting colleagues here, who plead for mini manifesto pronouncements. If I were Labour I would just pour on the scorn and enjoy the fun.

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  23. Howard

    I think if Eoin’s investigations into the privatisation of the nhs and donations to the Tory party were printed in a national newspaper that we would soon see the blues on single figures

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  24. It seems like the Greek govt has collapsed, new elections before Christmas? Not good for the bail talks!!

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  25. It does not sound as if it has actually collapsed, it’s more that the expected troubles in such a broad coalition have become very obvious, so much so that the austerity bill might have to be debated and passed in chunks. That or delayed.

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  26. Interesting article about class identification, is your class measured by what you’re born into or what you currently are.

    At the moment, I am very clearly working class, my Mum works on the till in a supermarket, and my dad is a mini cab driver, I am currently unemployed on JSA. But, in a few months time I hope to be on a Chartered Accountancy training course, the average fully trained chartered accountant earns 90K plus an average of 21k bonus. When I get to this stage, will I still be working class, or will I be considered a higher class?

    It puts me in mind of Alan Johnson, what class would you label him as? He has no higher qualification, not even A levels, he has some O levels and was a postman, so very working class, but now he is an MP and former cabinet minister, so is he still working class, or a higher class?

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  27. @Chris Lane 1945
    Hello Chris old fellow. The change of heart you refer to, regarding certain leading lights on the left and their view on Europe, is like my 11 stone Newfoundland, telling me he is a vegetarian. These guys do make make one laugh.

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  28. Colin dear boy, at least you have gained great wisdom as you have grown older. Whereas I am still a dumb Tory backwoodsman.

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  29. ROLY

    If only.

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