ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 33%(-2), LAB 44%(+6), LDEM 12%(-3). Changes are from ComRes’s previous telephone poll, which was conducted straight after the Liberal Democrat conference and, as you may remember, showed Labour dropping 4 points to a rather incongruous 3 point lead. In contrast this poll equals the biggest Labour lead ComRes have shown since the election, last seen in July this year.

The poll was conducted over the weekend, so after the GDP figures, suggesting no positive economic effect on government support here.


79 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 33, LAB 44, LDEM 12”

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  1. Oops

  2. 11% lead in a phone poll with pretty good GDP figures just announced-Labour will take that!

  3. Highest Lab share yet from any of the pollsters that reallocates “don’t knows” back to 2010 allegiances?

    That said, fluctuations of this scale seem dodgy. They can’t really be explained by the long gap between successive ComRes polls, for YouGov have been pretty steady over the whole period..

  4. Phil – ComRes don’t reallocate don’t knows back to 2010 recalled vote!

    (They use a squeeze question asking how people would vote if they were legally obliged to, and then those that still don’t answer are allocated based on party ID, not past vote. ICM and Populus don’t use a squeeze question, so they do more reallocation. My impression is that ComRes’s reallocation doesn’t have a large effect)

  5. Very good poll for Labour.

    Maybe the Tory GDP boost was very short-lived or non-existent (i.e. just within MOE). I guess the next few days will confirm either way.

  6. Thanks AW, mea culpa.

    Tables are here. Looking at Page 15, I don’t think it would make that much difference if they did do a further reallocation by 2010 allegiance. I can spot 18 extra 2010 Con, 15 extra 2010 Lab and 24 extra 2010 LDs.

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_30Oct2012_2.pdf

  7. Massive over reaction to a previous poll showing only a 7% Lab lead and with Tories on 35%, with government approval up. Some of the talk was about the GDP and other good news making the Tories more popular. Many said it would be short lived and they were probably right.

    At the moment the government parties are unpopular and according to polls their ratings on various issues are reducing, while Labours are gradually improving. Labour has still got a lot of work to do, before people are confident about their economic competence.

  8. I suspect a bit of an outlier here, although I suppose we ought to reserve judgement until we see the latest YouGov tomorrow morning. The weekend poll suggested a mild boost for the Tories from the recent GDP figures; this one suggests precisely the opposite! The strangeness of polls indeed.

    My hunch is that we’ll continue with Labour 9-11% leads in the daily YouGov trackers and discover that the growth figures will have had diddly-squat effect on the main party’s VI ratings, although maybe a slight positive effect on some economic sub questions for the government.

    We sail serenely on until the forthcoming little clutch of parliamentary by-elections and Police Commissioner elections. This latest ComRes, if remotely accurate, suggests some rocky political times ahead for the Coalition and, quite possibly, some further reasons for Mr Miliband to look rather pleased with himself over the coming weeks.

    As I said yesterday, I think it’s going to take more than a few decent economic statistics to float this government off the the rather jagged rocks of unpopularity on which they have impaled themselves these last seven months or so. I sense some ingrained opinion has formed over this period, quite possibly relatively impervious to passing and transitory events too. In other words, there’s more to this government’s unpopularity than just disappointment with the state of the economy.

  9. It may not be significant, but the x-breaks are fascinating nonetheless… Tory VI higher in East Midlands and Eastern England than in the South East (excluding London). Labour and Tory level pegging in the South West. ComRes also picking up a handful of people in the SE, E and SW (9-7%, as opposed to 5% overall) claiming they are 10/10 certain to vote UKIP.

  10. Good Evening All.

    Good chess match draw, win for the team, and vg poll- for Lab, and good football match results at weekend.

    I fear for Obama.

  11. No knowing as yet how the aftermath of power outages and flooding could affect the election, but Chris Christie has started the blame game by denouncing the Democrat mayor of Atlantic City.

  12. Really the truth is surely that no polls really offer any empirical evidence beyond what the figures themselves.

    The reaction to the rduced YG was ridiculous as is the idea that we’ll “know” what caudes it in a few days time.

    No we won’t.Everything has to be taken as one, very long, averaged out opinion poll in my opinion, with very little notice given to the individual little rascals.

    And, on average, its looking pretty dire for the by-elections for the Tories. Which, of course, is a shame for them.

  13. What an appallingly written post.

    Too hurried.

    To sleep, perchance to wake up [as ole Shakespeare might have said.]

  14. @ Billy Bob

    “No knowing as yet how the aftermath of power outages and flooding could affect the election, but Chris Christie has started the blame game by denouncing the Democrat mayor of Atlantic City.”

    I just heard about that. I don’t think that is a partisan issue. In fact, Chris Christie gave a press conference this afternoon where he said very nice things about President Obama with whom he’s conferring on the disaster.

    As Christie explains it (and let’s just assume arguendo that his facts are correct), he gave an order to evacuate Atlantic City. Instead of following his order and evacuating city residents, local officials there (quite possibly the mayor) decided to move people to shelters within the city. Because they disobeyed his orders, the people are now stuck in those shelters. And state officials cannot get to them for the time being because it’s too dangerous. They mayor should not have disobeyed his orders.

    We’ll find out eventually what happenned (it’s possible that there’s an innocent explanation for this and it was simply a miscommunication).

    At least for the time being, all the leaders within the zone of the storm, Bob McDonnell (R-VA), Jack Markell (D-DE), Lincoln Chaffee (I-RI), Martin O’Malley (D-MD), Vincent Gray (D-DC), Andrew Cuomo (D-NY), Dan Malloy (D-CT), and Tom Corbett (R-PA) have all been behaving themselves and acting as leaders. Not as partisan hacks.

  15. @ Billy Bob

    And I forgot to add in that, Chris Christie (R-NJ). That was not a purposeful omission. He’s been fine and doing his job.

  16. If Obama loses in the US then could he become the UK PM?

  17. If you look at the ComRes pre-squeeze, likely to vote (5-10) people you get:

    Con 31%

    Lab 44%

    L/D 10%

    UKIP 5%

    Green 4%

    Nats 3%

    which is little different except it suggests the Lib Dems benefit by a few points.

    Note that as usual with telephone polls UKIP do worse than with on-line ones (they got 9% in the previous on-line Com Res). Is there a shy-UKIP effect or is it that on-line polls are more likely to attract the “angry, white, male” demographic that also seems to UKIP’s core.

  18. @Squeezedmiddle

    What for?

  19. @RM

    “Is there a shy-UKIP effect or is it that on-line polls are more likely to attract the “angry, white, male” demographic that also seems to UKIP’s core.”

    It might be a simple case that the average UKIP voter has more technological know-how.

    Not sure where angry, white, male bit comes from. Isn’t that the BNP?

  20. A decent study of UKIP support:

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/89024367/Study-of-the-UKIP-Electorate

    Although, again I disagree with the shortened summary of UKIP voters being predominantly ‘angry old men’ or ‘insecure old men’.

    Most polls show that most people are financially ‘insecure’ these days. What I see are older men, who feel that the Conservative Party of old has let them down on Europe.

    There’s almost certainly half of the UKIP VI to be won by the Conservatives if they play the Europe cards carefully.

    Also note:

    ttp://poliquant.com/who-votes-for-ukip/

    (findings taken from one Yougov poll, so beware!)

    47% of UKIP VI polled, voted Conservative in 2010. At 920,000 votes, this equates to 450,000 votes or 1.5% of vote share (out of 3.1% in 2010).

    Using my MAD calcs here…

    If we assume that UKIP are polling around 7.5% of national VI at present, that might equate to 3.75% of VI to be won, taking the Conservative current VI of 33..2% to 36.95 (37%), which is above 2010 results’ levels.

    Assuming the Conservatives can do the business on Europe and keep a reasonable economy, it’s a 40/40 split in 2015 I reckon. I don’t think the Lab VI is that soft that it will drop below 40 in a hurry, and I don’t see the Con VI rising above 40 in a hurry.

    Rainbow coalition?

  21. @ ChrisLane1945

    “I fear for Obama.”

    Don’t.

    The election was effectively paused today. And it paused with Obama ahead and surging in the polls, especially in the swing states.

    No Republican has ever won the Presidency without Ohio and right now Obama has a solid lead in the state and looks likely to win.

    Early voting turnout has been massive and appears to be reaching historic highs.

    I wouldn’t count the chickens at this point mind you. But I don’t think one needs to fear at this point.

  22. @ Squeezed Middle

    If Obama loses in the US then could he become the UK PM?
    ———————
    In theory, yes. There’s no need to be born in the UK, if that is what you are asking.
    8-)

  23. @ Amber Star

    “In theory, yes. There’s no need to be born in the UK, if that is what you are asking.”

    Well if you ask the birthers, he was. What a hokey group they are.

    @ Billy Bob

    What I am hearing reported is that 6.8 million people on the east coast are without power right now. If ConEd and PEPCO move in their typically slow and incompetent manner and those outages last for more than a week, that could definitely affect the election. Just based on being able to open up and actually run various polling precincts. (Although, really, should it? I mean, I figure between 1788 and some time in the early 1900’s, we conducted all of our elections without electricity). Though it could take a while to count ballots.

    Looking at the news, it seems like New York City seems to have born the brunt of the storm havoc. I feel like NYC will probably be able to clean up its messes fairly quickly (they are NYC) and there won’t be issues for people getting to the polls. In some states like Maryland and the District of Columba, early voting today and tommorow had to be cancelled though Maryland has already announced they’ll make up the day on Friday (always good to have someone like Martin O’Malley running the show). But that’s early voting and I think that won’t dampen the high turnout possibilities a week from now.

  24. CON 33%
    LAB 43%
    LD 9%
    UKIP 8%

    APP -31

  25. Gov’s cuts for deficit questions – (perhaps a look on the Q3 GDP figures, considering this poll does not seem particularly Con heavy):

    Good for the economy +4
    Bad for the economy -9
    DK +5

    Being done fairly +1
    or unfairly? -4
    DK +2

    Necessary +1
    or unnecessary? -4
    DK +3

    Too deep -5
    too shallow -2
    about the right level? +1
    DK +5

    Being done too quickly -3
    too slowly -2
    at about the right pace? +2
    DK +3

    Having an impact on your own life -6
    not having an impact on your own life? +2
    DK +4

    And who do you think is most to blame:
    Con/lib -1
    Lab -2
    Both +1
    Neither -1
    DK +4

    most to blame for the current spending cuts?:
    Con/Lib +1
    Lab -2
    Both +1
    Neither -1
    DK n/c

    Interesting that perceived changes in the economy can make people change their perception of their situation (if that’s what we’re seeing here).

    Nowt as fickle as folk.

  26. so…

    as I said…

    it was the effect of everybody except rich old southerners being too busy to do polls at the weekend.

  27. Statgeek
    “Nowt as fickle as folk” !?

    The stats you give (the movements) seem utterly consistent to me, and reflect a small move against the Gov in Lab’s favour across the range of issues. But perhaps I misundertand?

  28. Ah, ignore last post…doh. I misread the first few stats.

  29. Good Morning All; the Labour lead looks to be quite solidt.

    Many voters will receive their child benefit letters soon.

    Many voters on council tax rebates will soon be told they are going to pay the full amount.

    Maybe political ramifications.

  30. CROFTEE
    “Old Shakespeare”…If you’r bothered about your fractured prose while nodding off, I always thought the best of his sleep quotes was ” …that knits up the ravelled sleeve of care”

  31. ComRes seems to be jumping all over the shop lately.

    I guess that’s the problem with monthly polls.

  32. He that sleeps feels not the tooth-ache.

    Cymbeline

  33. ComRes aligns with YG. Stopped clock syndrome, IMO. The YG +10 is fine; the CR +11 is coincidence. :-)

  34. @SoCalLiberal

    Thankfully Sandy has been downgraded to a monster super-storm. I was getting a bit nervous around the time of landfall… but there are no reports of a major disaster in Atlantic City or elsewhere. Power could be down in New York for up to ten days it is being reported.

    Chris Christie was saying he doesn’t have a beef with the guy (Langford) – but he is in longterm dispute with someone he calls a ‘rogue major’ and says is impossible to work with. There are other political dimensions to this though:

    h
    ttp://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/10/29/romney-wants-to-disband-fema-do-you-think-n-j-governor-chris-christie-agrees-with-the-gop-today/

  35. BILLYBOB

    @”but there are no reports of a major disaster in Atlantic City or elsewhere. ”

    Looking at the US tv news channels that seem extraordinarily confident & misinformed.

    They won’t know the damage till daylight-but it doesn’t look good at all.

    A dozen fatalities already reported , 5 million without power & NY subway flooded with salt water doesn’t seem like a good start.

  36. STATGEEK

    They are interesting changes, and as a precursor to more confidence , encouraging from Cons point of view.

    Looks like a recognition that economic conditions are looking better-without any sustainable effect on VI.

    Just have to keep the good news coming. :-)

  37. Daily Telegraph headline on Child Benefit move looks interesting.

    COLIN.
    Good Morning, yes the UK economy is doing very well, isn’t it.

  38. Interesting timeline on Chalara fraxinea.

    After the fungus had spread to France , in 2007, Denmark had become badly effected. THe UK Horticultural Trades Association visited Danish nurseries in 2009 , as a result of which they asked DEFRA to ban ash imports.

    DEFRA reportedly replied that controls were “inappropriate” because the disease was endemic in EU & could not be controlled.

    Thought Alec might be interested…………..or not :-)

  39. Anthony,

    Has anyone done any work on whether devolution leads to more false recall with people remembering how they voted in the wrong election.

    Peter.

  40. CHRISLANE

    No-I wouldn’t say it is “doing very well” at all.

    I don’t know of any commentator with that view. Perhaps things are better in Bournemouth than elsewhere.

    For the rest of us it is, I think, cautious suggestions that growth has resumed-but at a pretty low level-perhaps 1% pa .

    Next year’s economic news is critical politically.

  41. “Next year’s economic news is critical politically.”

    Probably important economically too.

  42. Every mention of growth seemed to mention that it was largely due to the Olympics.

    I think people were pleased that something which we’d enjoyed (perhaps with a frisson of collective guilt about the cost of it during austerity) had also been good for the economy.

    Of course, most commentators were mentioning it as a caveat -but we just turned a selective ear & heard Olympics = growth = good.
    8-)

  43. @Colin

    There is no doubt that Sandy is a serious event… but historically these type of storms have the potential to radically alter a coastline… it was not of that order, and there are no reports of a major disaster so far. There is of course potential for things to go badly wrong if the aftermath of flooding etc is not handled well.

  44. @ SoCal

    Well if you ask the birthers, he [the President] was [born in the Uk]. What a hokey group they are.
    ———————
    Really; I thought they believe he was born in Kenya. I don’t why they’d get all huffy about him being a Brit. We are the 51st state after all. ;-)

  45. BILLYBOB

    I don’t think you can be so sure-till daylight & news from the US east coast.

    Re coast line change, I have been following reports by a storm chaser who described 30 ft waves removing dunes & beaches. I think there is every possibility that coastal profiles will have altered.

  46. AMBER

    @”Every mention of growth seemed to mention that it was largely due to the Olympics.”

    I don’t think that’s right.

    ONS cited one specific- 0.2% from ticket sales. Online retail & London high street reported negative effects from the Olympics. Transport & hotels were positive.

    Consensus annual underlying rate of growth inherant in Q3 is around 1% pa ( ie 0.25% per qtr as ONS bizarrly report it)

    But of course Q4 may tell a very different story.

  47. The TIMES today has a well written, and sad article about Food Banks. They are all over the country, apparently.

    The Trussell Trust has established a Food Bank for the first time in the Cotswolds.

  48. The government are apparently wanting to charge for people to drive on Motorways and major A-roads. No sure how they would apply the charges.

    It won’t happen, as it is a massive vote loser.

  49. @CL1945
    “The Trussell Trust has established a Food Bank for the first time in the Cotswolds.”

    And YG poll says that a whopping 40% are worried about maybe losing their home. The feel good factor, or lack of it, will surely affect VI?

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/r3dmkmhjem/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-291012.pdf

  50. The interim report on the WCML refranchising fiasco makes interesting reading, as it seems to be suggesting that a primary causes of the mistakes were staff reorganisation and reduction in the DfT, and the need to implement policy changes too quickly.

    Might the lack of an effective civil service explain why the government appears to leap from crisis to crisis? It’s also been suggested elsewhere that the civil service cuts have been made ideologically rather than based on effectiveness/added value (for example closing the Government Offices for the Regions who did a lot of coordination and partnership work to aid local agencies) meaning that the tools the government have to effect its agenda aren’t up to the job.

    If this is the case I’m suspicious of those saying that economic growth will save the government, because growth won’t prevent the drip drip of avoidable errors, which will give the impression of incompetence.

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