The weekly YouGov results for the Sunday Times are now online here, mostly covering the BBC and Jimmy Savile, topics which I’ll leave to another day. Topline voting intention results are CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. The seven point Labour lead is lower than YouGov normally show, but not by so much that it couldn’t be just normal sample variation.

There does appear to be some impact from the end of the recession though – there are very significant shifts on many of the economy trackers. 36% of people think that the government is managing the economy well, up 5 points from last week and their highest score since before the budget. Overall perceptions of the economy remain dire of course… but are less dire than they have been for a long time. 64% think the economy is in a bad state, the lowest since the general election. The feel good factor (the proportion of people who expect their financial situation to get better in the next 12 months minus those who think it will get worse) is up to minus 34, its highest since May 2010.

It may be a very short term effect from the good economic news, and made fade away again in coming weeks, but right now people are less pessimistic about the economy than they have been for 2 years. With that said, the large majority of people still expect the economic troubles to last a long time – 58% expect them to last another three years or more.

163 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 35, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. @ Nick P

    “The authorities have reacted by arresting him.”

    That is f***ed up man. He should flee to the United States at the earliest opportunity where he’d be protected from such totalitarian actions.

    Better yet, he should flee to California and see if he can take adantage of the anti-SLAPP statute. Tyrants of all stripes hate and despise free speech (something that well-intentioned but misguided European and other non-American leftists need to remember). But when tyrants attempt to shut down your free speech rights, it’s always fun when you can turn tables on them in court. :)

  2. @ RAF

    “Not good news for Obama I guess.”

    Anyone, anywhere, at anytime can say anything they want in order to push a political narrative. You have no idea who made that comment and whether it was genuine.

    I don’t even like going from anecdotes but when I do, I rely on stuff from actual people. When I see a blogger on a leftwing site like Daily Kos give a positive or negative anecdote, I give it a little more weight in terms of its credibility. But I take it with a grain of salt.

    And ‘Democratic machine’ sounds an awful lot like a code word. Honestly, there haven’t been any real Democratic machines since the late 1960’s. But it’s a common thread of complaint among Republicans.

    As for where we fall, the Democratic Party is a party that is generally center-left. It is a broad party though and welcomes in moderates and conservatives who support the party on certain critical issues.

  3. @MITM

    Just so I don’t leave you with the wrong impression, if I was in the US, I’d be an Independent (probably registered as such). But at election, time, I would probably vote Dem. Voting for a, third, party candidate in this, kind,of, election is a, wasted vote.

    In any event, while I dislike some, of, the, things the Obama administration has done, I generally like Obama. In, particular the fact that he usually considers discretion the better part of valour. That’s a good quality in a President. He doesn’t just, follow a fad or jump on a bandwagon. He didn’t rush into any wars (he was very wary in Libya – a war that closed the,door,on, intervention, in Syria). He isn’t falling (yet) for the guff from the Hawks on,Iran. And,(for,a US President) he’s been very clear in his contempt for the,Israeli PM (often suicidal for a Pres).

  4. @Colin
    “interesting to hear EM urging a reduction in EU spending, whilst doing the very opposite in UK”

    Good for him. The language of priorities is the religion of Socialism.

  5. @Socal

    That wasn’t my,quote. It was RiN requoting something he had read.

    I agree,the,Dem membership is generally centre left, but what about,the,Dem party in Congress?

  6. @SoCalLib

    Yes, but be careful. You have to put down enough to cover the maximum loss and if the event is deemed high-probability, the maximum loss will be lots bigger than the winnings.

    So if you’re betting that something high-probability will happen (e.g. that Jill Stein will not win WH2012), then the amount of money you will have to put down to win $10 will be something like $1000. Scary.

    But if you’re betting that something low-probability will happen (e.g. that Gary Johnson will win WH2012), then the amount of money you will have to put down to win $10 will be something like $1. Great, but you will then lose the $1 because in any real world Gary Johnson will simply not win WH2012. So that’s scary as well.

    It is difficult to make money from betting because the things that are likely to happen have low odds and the things that are unlikely to happen have high odds. To win big it is not just necessary for you to be right, the others have to be wrong as well.

    And when it goes wrong, it goes horribly wrong (Galloway’s win is a case in point)

    So be careful.

    Regards, Martyn

  7. @ RAF

    I’m sorry. I responded to a comment that Richard in Norway had made and not one you had actually made. I am sorry for this confusion and this misstatement.

    Although my comment about the Democratic Party still stands.

    There was some interesting analysis about the Colin Powell endorsement where Powell was described as an Eisenhower Republican (which is true) and how Obama is really an Eisenhower Republican (not totally true). But it got me to thinking about the relationship between Obama and David Cameron.

    I’m sure you heard but recently, George McGovern passed away. Joan Walsh, a great reporter for (good San Francisco liberal feminist) talked about how McGovern’s legacy was actually Obama. Why was this? McGovern was really the first party nominee who became the nominee because of his appeal to “New Democrats” who were Democrats without a labor background. The begginings of that coalition ultimately led to what would be a winning coalition for Obama in 2008.

    I think that if you looked at the moderate, Cameron wing of the Tories and you looked at a lot of the New Democrats who loved (and still love) Obama, you would find a lot of similarities, both culturally and even ideologically (except on economics). The sort of liberal do-gooder, non labor background. That said, New Dems are not like Tories on economic issues and would be far more likely to be supportive of Gordon Brown on economics than Cameron.

  8. @Socal

    It wasn’t my comment either :)

    I’m sure there are many disappointed leftish Dems, who consider Obama could have been bolder. But i’m sure many more (most) who believe the terrible, economic situation, when he,took over meant progress,would, always, be, slow.

    What surprises,me,is that,Dems, haven’t been as motivated to stop Romney as, they, were McCain/Palin, when the Republican base is,just,as,rightwing,as,it,was,then

  9. Raf

    I recently watch a video where Obama supporters were asked what they thought about a range of alleged romney policies. Things like using the drone warfare by 6 times or a law giving the pres the right to imprison any American that he considered to be a threat to national security. Of course all these policies were denounced by Obama supporters, but they were shocked to learn that the policies were not romney’s but things that Obama had already done. I must hunt that vid down.

  10. Obama under attack on Benghazi again.

    The timing couldn’t be worse with Sandy about to hit. Power stations being closed down etc.

    Wonder if this will affect the result of the election.

  11. @ Martyn

    “So be careful.”

    Thanks. I’ll think about it. I appreciate your advice. I don’t normally gamble at all but there is some allure here I think. You know. Just is that way.


  12. If EM advocates less EU spending, I’ld assume it is because – as I do – he thinks them, the Commission in particular, economically incompetent, notably in agricultural subsidisation under the CAP, and so supportive of incompetent governments and corrupt administrations and untrue markets – the Greek collapse didn’t happen overnight. By contrast EU reforms of working rights, the rights of women in the labour market, freedom of movement of labour, standards and cross border trade and movement are areas where the UK needs to stay in Europe and to continue and benefit from good regulation and continued reform.

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