Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has now been published. Topline figures with changes from their last poll in mid-September, before conference season, are CON 33%(+3), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 9%(-4), UKIP 6%. The Labour lead remains pretty steady at around ten points, again roughly the same sort of Labour leads MORI have been showing since May.

Part leader satisfaction ratings are Cameron minus 29 (from minus 24 last month), Miliband minus 12 (from minus 9 last month), Clegg minus 45 (from minus 43 last month).


309 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 33, LAB 43, LD 9, UKIP 6”

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  1. Spookily similar to today’s Yougov. There was a time when Ipsos/Mori and Yougov differed greatly. The various polster’s polls seem to be lining up together at the moment.

  2. Interesting to note that they are similar in terms of Labour Tory VI

    But on Lib/UKIP they are still a bot off. Most other polls are showing a tight race between the two with UKIP even leading. This poll is probably more accurate though as in the election, I expect some support to return to the Libs, and UKIP to go down as support goes back to the Tories.

  3. Could be a coincidence.

    However as party allege alters over time it might be showing that people who had previously been identified as LibDems but who intended to vote for someone else, are now being identified as non LibDem supporters.

    It’s really a methodology question for Anthony but it could show that the adjustment for false recall is diminishing over time or worse still for the LibDems their losses are becoming perminant.

    Like I say Anthony will know if my explanation is probable… Which with my track record will be a “No!”

    Peter

  4. PeterCairns – I’m not quite sure what your theory is so I can’t say whether it’s likely to be right or not, but for the record MORI don’t adjust for false recall at all (indeed, they don’t weight by past vote).

  5. I am actually sensing from the polls that Labours position is actually becoming more solid. For quite awhile now, Labour have been ahead in most age groups and regions, with their lead becoming more entrenched. Even for the rest of the south, Labour on average have increased their polling. On the polling done about the party leaders, Ed Milibands figures have been gradually increasing.

  6. And once again its only Alex salmond that has a positive satisfaction rating. How does he do it?!?!?

  7. RIN

    AS never has to make any hard decisions. He is given a lump sum by UK gov and then told to spend it how he pleases. He doesn’t have to raise any taxes from anyone, so no one dislikes him because of that, his only problem is finding out where best to spend the money in order to make the most people happy.

    Ironically his call for more financial powers may be his undoing. If he suddenly has to start raising taxes, that will turn some people against him (those paying the new tax) equally if Holyrood is left to its own funding devices instead of being given a Westminster Grant, money might be a bit harder to come by and cuts could be necessary.

  8. That -4% for the LibDems looks a “trifle sudden” (as Jeeves might say to Wooster!) given that I am not aware of the LibDems committing any major gaffe since the last survey by Ipsos/Mori which would warrant this downward slide? How much of this shift might be sampling error Anthony please?

  9. Tony – probably all of it. Most movements in polls are!

  10. Until fairly recent years I do not recall much media attention being given to GDP data. Attention was always focussed on other macroeconomic factors – principally inflation, unemployment and the balance of payments. Whilst economic growth is obviously absolutely crucial to material living standards, comment on quarterly GDP figures was largely confined to the business pages of broadsheet newspapers – even at the depth of recessions in the 80s and 90s.I suspect that to the public at large GDP remains a pretty obscure concept – which might explain why the electoral impact appears to be so limited..

  11. Thanks Anthony! Crumbs! That means 90% of the time all of us here get worked up and excited about what is actually no real movement at all between the parties, n’est pas?!

  12. Tony Dean – tell me about it :)

  13. Anthony,

    “I’m not quite sure what your theory is?”

    No problem, neither do I…..

    I was sort of thinking that if they did do an adjustment between how people would vote now and some historic measure of allege nice to a particular party that over time if a party suffered a sustained and genuine fall in support they effect would diminish.

    I know YouGov use a party identifier to compare who people would vote for today to who they say they traditionally support, but if as appears the LibDems have lost half their support then that party identifier base should change overtime.

    Out of interest, how long would it take, given the size and number of polls carried out, to refresh the identifier of the whole panel to realign the base with the kind of steep decline the LibDems have experienced.

    Sorry if that sounds weired, I know what I mean but I am a bit Poe bear, the words come out woobly!

    Peter

  14. IPad again, allegiance keeps coming out as allege nice!

    Peter.

  15. I know what you mean. If there was a sharp fall in the proportion of people who admitted having voting Lib Dem in 2010, yet pollsters didn’t adapt to it, they’d end up weighting up the dwindling number of people who admitted having voted Lib Dem and (assuming those people were more loyal) end up getting higher levels of Lib Dem support. Given the absense of the result we’d likely see if it was happening, it probably isn’t!

  16. “Yer all rubbish but YOU’re even worse” seems to be the clarion call.

    I think Ed’s mantra for 2015 should be:

    “I’m not as unpopular as those two: vote for ME.”

  17. @Maninthemiddle,

    If the economy improves, the best Labour can probably hope for is to deprive the Tories of a majority. If the economy doesn’t improve by 2015, I think we are probably looking at a Labour majority.

  18. Anthony,

    ” Given the absense of the result we’d likely see if it was happening, it probably isn’t!”

    Except that doesn’t ICM still adjust for how people voted at the last election?
    If we do have a substantial shift in LibDem support and that it is perminant then their normally reliable and often praised adjustment for false recall might actually be having the opposite effect to what it is supposed to.

    Peter.

  19. I agree with Ambivi and Paul I criticise all parties, and right now I think Labour needs to try and take control of their own destiny a bit, at the moment they just rub their hands when the economy goes down, and then seem a bit lost for words when it improves. Labour’s not going to be able to win like that.

    If the economy continues to tank Labour is pretty much a shoe in. But if the economy improves, Labour needs a plan B, at the moment they seem to be banking on the economy remaining stagnant too much. But they need to be looking at how they strike back if the economy starts to improve. Right now if such a circumstance were to occur the only weapon in the Labour arsenal would be continuing the “they’re out of touch and make inequality” attack. I don’t think that would be enough on its own to win enough independents over in the event of an economic recovery.

  20. On 538 Nate Silver (who is good on USA stuff as opposed to what he is here) detects ‘momentum in the polls towards Obama’ again, back from a month ago when it was towards Romney. .

    I don’t see any momentum in this poll.

    Looking at the tables, I can’t see what Mori ask (Q1). Do they prompt for parties?

  21. Richard in Norway

    “And once again its only Alex salmond that has a positive satisfaction rating. How does he do it”
    ________

    Just watch FM questions and then you will see why!!

  22. Howard, I agree, I don’t see much momentum in the polls at all. It’s still Romney leading nationally, with Obama leading in the electoral college with 11 votes over the required amount to win. That is easily overturned if Ohio, or a combination of (Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada) go to Romney.

    Whoever wins will be faced with gridlock and find it impossible to pass any legislation, as current polls show that the Republicans are almost certain to retain the house, it would need a big shift in the next 12 days for Dems to take the House. But on the other side, it’s almost certain that Dems will retain the Senate. Current polls have the Reps taking 3 seats, and Dems taking 2, so it would be Dems 52 – 48 Reps

    So President Obama would struggle to pass his legislation through the House and President Romney would struggle to pass his legislation through the Senate.

  23. Yes I agree that labour just relying on bad economic news to get them elected is not enough, well it might be enough to get them elected but then what?? Do they just wait for things to work themselves out? Hope and pray that the economy turns or will they have some bold vision of the future.

  24. It could be because Alex Salmond is a brilliant political performer (from a neutral).

    The party conferences seem to have reduced the likeability of all three leaders.
    I wonder when they will decide to do without them completely?

  25. MitM
    I was referring to the Mori poll.

  26. @Howard

    Are you saying then you do detect movement towards Obama? Where?

  27. Looks like the two major parties are recovering in this poll. Hasn’t this poll also been fairly bullish about the Lib Dems too or am I confusing it with a different poll?

  28. MANINTHEMIDDLE,

    Obama is doing a bit better among registered voters than immediately after the first debate. However, he’s trailing on likely voters, so his path to victory now is basically all about getting people who already prefer him to actually go out and vote.

    It’s been a surprisingly interesting election. Romney has been less smooth but cooler under pressure than I expected, while Obama has been less cool but also less aloof than I expected.

  29. Bill, and to some extent Socali, don’t you agree that whoever wins will struggle to get their agenda through as it looks like Congress will remain divided with Reps keeping the House and Dems keeping the Senate?

  30. @ Norbold (from a few threads ago)

    “That accusation is something we atheists continually have flung at us by fundamentalists whose bible condones things like slavery, stoning adulteress women to death, putting to death entire towns because one person doesn’t believe in God and killing people who work on Sunday just to name a few.
    I’ll stick to humanitarian morals thank you and not those supported by god.”

    I don’t consider myself an atheist. My late grandfather (who I never met) was an atheist though. He was raised in a devoutly religious household. But after he went off to fight in World War II and nearly lost his life in the process (spending over 9 months in a military hospital recovering from injuries caused by grenade shrapnel), he became an atheist. He decided that he simply could not believe there to be a god with all the destruction and suffering he had witnessed. He was though an extremely humanitarian and ethical person, even sometimes eschewing extra profits in favor of greater societal good (he was a successful real estate developer and a Socialist).

    Frankly, I think people need to respect everyone else’s religious beliefs, whatever they may be. People also need to not attempt to enforce their religious beliefs onto others.

    @ Alex Harvey (from a few threads ago)

    “THANK YOU!”

    You’re very welcome.

  31. yougov seem to think Obama is leading the polls and always has been.

  32. Socal

    Thanks for the good news on Elizabeth warren, but I really never had a doubt, having watched her tearing apart bankers that came up before her commission. Hope she gets on to a good committee and creates hell

  33. As to the discussion about the state of the economy in 2015.IMHO this will
    Not be based on statistics whatever they may say.I believe it will depend on
    Personal experience,the incredibly different to define feel good factor.The only
    Time I have been personally aware of this was in the 1960s and during Blairs
    Second term.Will the Tories be able to achieve this in two years time.We will
    See.

  34. NickP is that on the national poll or electoral college?

    The Real Clear Politics average shows Romney’s national lead widening, but in terms of the electoral college he is still slightly behind, and has always been behind as far as I know.

    The Democrats could be about to repay the favour from 2000. It looks as though Romney could win on total votes but that Obama may win the Presidency because of the electoral college.

  35. @ Howard

    “On 538 Nate Silver (who is good on USA stuff as opposed to what he is here) detects ‘momentum in the polls towards Obama’ again, back from a month ago when it was towards Romney. .

    I don’t see any momentum in this poll.”

    Among likely voters, the race is very close nationally, basically tied. Polls of registered voters show a different story with a decisive win for Obama. I feel like most of the back and forth momentum has come amongst LVs and not so much among RVs. Of course, not every pollster releases their RV numbers so we can’t get a complete picture.

    I read some interesting analysis at DKos last night that every single tracking poll had movement for Obama even in polls that showed him down. State polling is showing momentum for Obama. PPP polls (which btw, just for the record, leans Republican in its results even though they are a Democratic firm) in Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia, and North Carolina all show the President gaining. Especially in Virginia where he’s back to his pre-debate levels of support.

    Obama seems to have gained from his third debate performance but we’re not going to see the results of that quite yet. Other things that will possibly affect the polls include the Mourdock situation, the Colin Powell endorsement, and the possible October Surprise that Gloria Allred (god bless her) is working on.

  36. Socal@

    “atheism/respect etc”

    Yes, I find the Tony Blair doctrine that religion, with all its pick and mix mantras and beliefs, is an essential prerequisite to a moral code offensive, as well as intellectual rubbish. It alos seems a bit contrary to suggest that “faith” in something completely unproven should be uncritically respected whereas atheists are somehow seen as not requiriung such respect as “they believe in nothing2 whereas actually the reverse is true.

    I am keeping fingers crossed for Nov 6th. My birthday is on the 8th and it would be a rotten present [for me] if we had to look forward to Pres Romney.

  37. The latest (23/10/12) Gallup poll of 2700 (LV) gives a 50-47 lead for Romney over Obama, with a margin-of-error of only +/-2%.
    I expect Romney to win (narrowly). Some voters canvassed may not be revealing their true feelings for PC reasons.
    Given that Romney appears to be a gung-ho interventionist neo-Con, rather than a traditional isolationist Republican, this could be bad news for the rest of the world.

  38. I’m a little surprised, given that Cameron and Miliband had a decent conference each and have both had a approval boost with YouGov since the last MORI polling, that both satisfaction ratings have fallen.
    But there we go..

    Another good piece of economic news to round off a good set recently – plus Cameron gets to wield his veto again next month over the EU’s budget – we could see a repeat of the end of last year for VI.

  39. Maninthemiddle,

    I don’t think either has much of an agenda, so it won’t be much of a problem.

  40. @ Nick P

    “yougov seem to think Obama is leading the polls and always has been.”

    And YouGov is correct and should be listened to. Let’s just look at the reality. YouGov polled in the U.S. for the first time in 2010. YouGov was the fourth most accurate pollster in 2010 out of ALL of them. On their first try no less. So I trust their numbers.

    @ Richard in Norway

    “Thanks for the good news on Elizabeth warren, but I really never had a doubt, having watched her tearing apart bankers that came up before her commission. Hope she gets on to a good committee and creates hell”

    Well I’m waiting to see if she actually wins. Massachusetts has never elected a woman before as either a Governor or Senator. She’s in good shape now though.

    I think she will get on a good committee and create hell. I call it revenge of the lawyers. You see, Wall Street (as a whole) hasn’t just been out destroying our industrial manufacturing base and ruining the lives of so many of our blue collar citizens. And they haven’t just been working hard to destroy our housing and construction industries and wreaking havoc and financial devastation ont he sunbelt states. And they haven’t just been threatening to bring down the entire global economy and wipe out the life savings and investments of most people due to their reckless activities and financial Russian roulette. They’ve also been actively working to destroy the legal community too. And of course, they’ve done all this not because it made them a profit (they were already profitable) but because they could make just a little more. I think the lawyers want to go and push these people back and Liz Warren is someone who will lead that effort in the Senate.

    A further word about Wall Street and their profits. Despite giving up his own political capital to bail them out and prop them up, fighting off potential new taxes on them, discouraging legal actions that would harm them, watering down regulations that would inhibit them, and keeping the Bush tax cuts in place so that they wouldn’t see higher taxes…….Wall Street hates Obama because he’s not nice enough to them. He’s too mean apparently. You know, he said that if the federal government was bailing you out, you had to be limited to $500k a year only in executive compensation.

    Anyway, Kamala Harris was apparently in Massachussetts campaigning with Liz Warren yesterday and I thought, that’s a good pair those two. She’s been making life miserable for the large Wall Street home mortgage firms despite the President’s attempts to reel her in.

  41. Have just done my penance for questioning AW’s maths – by checking through the boundaries spreadsheet for a third time…

    so apologies AW.

  42. Good Evening All.

    Proud day tomorrow for me and for my wife. Our son receives his degree in Oxford tomorrow.

    Lib Dems on 9% is probably an error as people have already posted on here; perhaps there has been a consistently skewed sampling in the polls regarding the Lib Dems all year.

    Economic optimism, by the way, is good news for Labour when in Opposition, as voters feel safe to vote leftist.

  43. The caveats from AW & contributors re VI effect of GDP numbers are well made. It will be personal experience which matters-ie jobs, pay, Cost of Living.

    However, to the extent that people watch tv news & read the papers, the narrative on Balls v Osborne changed today :-

    a) Labour can no longer talk about being in a “Tory made recession”. THey can talk about having been in one-but that’s not quite the same thing-it becomes history, when what matters is the future.
    b) The IMF report on the UK pre-recession Structural Deficit has done Balls no favours. Both Neil & Boulton today stuck to this story & Balls’ previous denials, and he simply could not get on to his agenda at all.

    Of course , if any future GDP numbers are negative, all that changes again. But whilst GDP continues to grow, I think GO is now on the front foot vs Balls.

  44. CHRISLANE

    Congratulation to your son.

  45. “Economic optimism, by the way, is good news for Labour when in Opposition, as voters feel safe to vote leftist.”

    I’m sure that’s the second time I’ve heard that today!

    1945- If they were feeling ‘safe’ about the economy they were sadly misplaced. they just wanted change.

    1960’s- Presumably things were on the up.

    1974- I don’t think anyone was feeling economically secure

    1997- I guess- in fact looking back it seems strange that 1997 was the year to get Labour elected compared the 1980’s but I suppose that was down to Labour leaders and policy.

    So you could say that 50% of the time people who are economically optimistic vote Labour and 50% of the time they don’t. 2015 it seems very unlikely that if the economy has really picked up that people would vote Labour, the only proviso I have to that is how firm the Lib Dems who have moved to Labour are.

  46. Colin I must say that I agree with you regards Ed Balls.I think he is very
    Dangerous for labours chances in 2015,bcause of the close associatin with
    GB,and because he seems to be useless at interviews,ie,the world at one
    Today.If EdM is going to win in2015 ,he has to get rid of Balls.IMO.

  47. Chris lane,good news about your son.My daughter went to Wadham had a
    Wonderful three years,I hope hat your son will be as happy.

  48. @ChrisLane1945

    Which college did he attend and which degree did he take?

    Tell him the hard work has only just started… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  49. Meanwhile the Badger cull vote has been decisively defeated in the House Of
    Commons.Good.

  50. Shevii
    “2015 it seems very unlikely that if the economy has really picked up that people would vote Labour, the only proviso I have to that is how firm the Lib Dems who have moved to Labour are.”

    I think that a lot of the LDs who have moved to Labour were already Lab supporters who voted tactically in Tory-LD marginals. If they revert to Labour it will have the effect in most of those seats of actually making them safer for the Tories or even a Tory gain. I did some calculations once that assumed a 50% in LD support in those seats, with all the votes going to Lab, and it resulted in about 20 Tory gains!

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