Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has now been published. Topline figures with changes from their last poll in mid-September, before conference season, are CON 33%(+3), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 9%(-4), UKIP 6%. The Labour lead remains pretty steady at around ten points, again roughly the same sort of Labour leads MORI have been showing since May.

Part leader satisfaction ratings are Cameron minus 29 (from minus 24 last month), Miliband minus 12 (from minus 9 last month), Clegg minus 45 (from minus 43 last month).


309 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 33, LAB 43, LD 9, UKIP 6”

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  1. John, it’s a sign of nothing else to say when you start brining up Hitler, and making false comparisons

    “in your argument, immigrants are us, – we repeat the history of two World Wars if they are not.”

    You’re jumping on a major hyperbole if you’re comparing slowing the pace of mass unskilled immigration, and what Hitler did. Hitler based it on race, I do not, I’m just as against more white people coming here as any other race. Hitler imposed harsh laws on ethnic minorities, no ones suggesting that, he deported them, no one is suggesting that.

    You belittle the events of world war 2 when you band them about willy nilly. Slowing down the pace of immigration is nowhere near what Hitler did. I’d advise you to think more carefully before you make such statements next time.

  2. For the records I still think Obama is the most likely winner in the US and could as others have said get quite a comfortable victory in the Electoral College http://john-murphy.co.uk/?p=2844….

    Latest polls in Wisconsin show a narrowing and Obama campaign putting new money into the state. Most interestingly to me Missouri which Obama didn’t win last time looks a safe red state this time round – which means it is no longer the bell-weather state. That said it may be one of the reasons the democrats keep the senate which at the start of the year looked a very big ask indeed.

    Sadly however, it seems as with elsewhere in the developed world elections are not producing governments of the caliber to solve the problems and this one won’t resolve the institutional grid-lock in DC.

  3. The close race is most of the players interests

    Romney to try to gain momentum as he is behind in the EC.

    Obama to get his voters out to vote.
    And the media – a close race means more Ad money.

    It is the chance of winning rather than margin of error that shows an Obama victory if you multiply Romneys chances in all the states he must win for a victory then it is improbable he will win.

    The early voting results 2:1 for Obama in Ohio for example suggest that the Dems ground game is working so it is all looking good for Obama.

    So much so I have put a small bet on him winning :-)

  4. @Daodao

    For me, the point is that the trend among the, vast, majority of, national pollsters is towards Obama (even on Gallup). He has the momentum. Rasmussen has a,Republican bias. You only have to look at the, other polls to see,that.

    As for RCP, it cherry picks,polls for it’s national average, sometimes without any logic whatsoever. As for RCP being right,on the,day, it’s possible they will simply, use a more, representative sample of polls for their last poll.

    Obama,may,not,yet,have a wining lead, but, if the movement towards him continues, he could win, by 5% or so

    Also, i’ll repeat a point SocalLiberal made, some, days, ago. The popular vote,winner,almost always wins,the,EC. If you think about this,it makes, sense. While, not a proportional system, the allocation of votes,per state in the Electoral College generally,ensures the,EC,and popular,vote, totals tally.

    Is,it,close now? Of course. Even 538 has Obama, just 50 or so EC votes ahead (one and,a bit,larger states), and,a,tie,for, the, popular, vote. But the momentum is behind obama, and there, is,a,week, to, go

  5. RAF

    The momentum is behind Obama in states like Colorado, but nationally the momentum is behind Romney which doesn’t matter as the national vote doesn’t count to much as Al Gore found out.

    A 50 EC vote lead is still narrow as it means you only need to lose 26 EC votes to be behind, a simple combination of Ohio and Colorado changing would do this.

    I think everyone’s agreed Obama will win, it’s just then margin we’re uncertain of, some say a narrow win, some say an ordinary win.

    I bet Romney is kicking himself, he could have actually won this, but his stance on things like the 47% and the auto bailout have made sure he won’t win Blue Collar workers that are vital in Ohio.

    Romney is within 5% of Obama in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvannia and Michigan, so he’d only need a 2.5% gain to win them. It’s not unreasonable to believe that openly stating you would have let an electorates main industry go bankrupt cost you at least 3% maybe even more. Especially as he is from Michigan and his Dad was a popular governor there, as well as his running mate being from Wisconsin, they could have swept the midwest but their opposition to the bailout and alienation of blue collar workers has probably cost them the election.

  6. @ MITM

    I basically agree with your summary, and that the probability is that Obama will scrape a very narrow win, with Ohio the key state. However, I would not be as confident as others on this site about such a prediction with more than a week to go before 4th November. Assuming that Romney wins 4 of the 11 swing states (where the lead is less than 5%) – Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado – the Obama lead would only be 281 to 257 EC votes.

  7. MitM
    In 1968 when Enoch Powell made his “Rivers of Blood” speech and was sacked from the cabinet many workers went on strike in his support. The problem I find with “slowing down immigration”, which might be a good idea and is supported in both the main parties, is that it’s part of a mind-set and movement which does not stop there; for example, unemployment among young Asians is about twice that in the general population, and among young Afro-Caribbeans about three times. Iqbal Mahhab, who heads a Government committee on the reduction of minority unemployment points to the fact that the net result is a turning away from a society which denies them equal opportunity for work, but differs in the extent to which Asians, notably Pakistani young men, with some 13% unemployment are attracted to fundamentalist Islam, and by inference against mainstream British society.
    This has not changed in twenty years – I did a study for the British Council in the ‘eigthties on the development of Afro-Caribbean arts in the Midlands, and found that these unemployment rates among minority groups were prevalent then. What shocked me was that the responsible Council seemed both unaware that that was so and disinterested in getting either minority group into training, already running and available, where design and the arts could be linked to improving their employment prospects. These were second or their generation British kids.
    So what? My point is not to suggest that you intend to preach discrimination in seeking to slow down immigration in this generation. Rather that, along with economic development in countries from which migrants overwhelmingly migrate in the search for work, we need to understand and tackle the problem here, including, probably, not slowing down immigration but creating more jobs and increasing the safeguards against discrimination; otherwise we have a social and political problem which will work its way out on other stages.

  8. second or third generation…

  9. John as I said above, if there was work for everyone who sought work, and wages and working conditions were good and affordable housing, then I’m sure the immigration issue would melt away. you’d only be left with a few racists not even 1% of the population.

    Immigration has done a lot of good for this country but like a tap, you don’t leave it running all the time. It’s not even halting immigration per say, but reducing NET migration. A system for example where for every person who emigrates, someone can immigrate would be good. So we still have immigration into this country but our population stays the same so there is no squeeze on resources.

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