Lord Ashcroft has commissioned a second poll in Corby (not Corby and East Northamptonshire – it might be the name of the Conservative association, but the seat is just called Corby). The topline figures are CON 32% (down 10 from the general election), LAB 54% (up 15), LDEM 5% (down 10%), UKIP 6%, Green 1%, BNP 1%.

The 22 point lead equates to a thirteen point swing towards Labour, a very strong performance indeed. Lord Ashcroft last polled the constituency back in August when they found a 15 point lead – more in line with the sort of swing we are seeing nationally. Given the national polls haven’t moved the difference between then and now seems to be campaigning – the Labour party are clearly putting up the strongest campaign on the ground: 33% of people reported having been canvassed by Labour, compared to only 11% by the Conservatives; 59% had received Labour leaflets, compared to only 42% Conservative ones; 14% had been phoned by Labour compared to only 6% by the Tories and so on.

Meanwhile last night’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 8%


162 Responses to “New Lord Ashcroft poll of Corby”

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  1. AW

    I thought you would not like the subject matter, but if there is any truth to the allegations, it could be game changer in regard to polling/election. But it depends on what is actually revealed in the media and what then happens.

    That is my last comment on the subject.

  2. ANTHONY WELLS
    “Alex Harvey – because obviously he’s a reliable source!
    I suspect the impact will be zero, as the sort of people who believe it will be the sort of people who aren’t voting Obama anyway on account of their belief that he is a secret Muslim who wasn’t born in the USA…
    …and is possibly a lizard… in league with Prince Philip’s international drugs cartel… etc, etc”

    I think you’ll find he’s a Muslim Atheist Socialist Nazi, so…

  3. @RIN

    Just listen to the question raised by Tom Watson and then do your own research. As with all rumours/allegations, I suspect that not all of it is true and I hope for Britains reputation in the world, that it turns out to be pure fiction.

  4. @ A WELLS
    [Mullin’s] diaries are an excellent read (and his predictions are indeed so good at some points I did wonder whether he selectively edited out the bad ones!)

    Mullin talking in Mancs soon. I shall put your point to him, if I get a chance, & suggest he makes a prediction on UK POLLING [as if we needed any more propehts.]

  5. NICKP

    @” That’s a major Hillsborough scalp and proves these tightly woven establishment cover-ups can unravel very quickly.
    Hold onto your hats!”

    Yes.

    Hercules’ Fifth labour comes to mind.

  6. R HUCKLE

    @”Just listen to the question raised by Tom Watson and then do your own research.”

    ………or read the Murdoch Press-last weekend’s Sunday Times.

    ……..or read Edwina Currie’s autobiography, which was the source of The Times’ story.

  7. @ Colin

    When I first posted, I had not looked at the particular case Watson mentioned, just about allegations involving politicians/aides. There are similar stores about senior politicians/aides between the years 1970- 2005. If the media started to look into all of these, it would affect Labour and Tories, if there was any truth to the stories.

  8. Tom Watson’s own blog has a bit more detail and clears up some misunderstandings:

    http://www.tom-watson.co.uk/2012/10/a-little-more-background-on-todays-pmqs

    Once again this seems to be more to do with police inaction than political pressure, though of course you can have both. Alternatively it may be police over-sensitive to which investigations that might cause problems for the politicians. but I can’t see any political effects it might have and I suspect trying to make political capital out of it might not work.

    There’s also another paragraph on the entry I found interesting:

    One person also contacted me to suggest that the Met held a vast quantity of material suggesting Jimmy Savile was a predatory paedophile. I do not know whether this is true but I do know the source and she has been 100% accurate in the past.

  9. I love the Orwellian double-speak threat of

    “the retired should be ‘encouraged’ to volunteer.”

  10. thanks for watson blog link. as he says the aide isn’t the one edwina currie names in her autobiography so there are allegations against another one around the early 90s. more will obviously come out as the police will have to review the large amount of evidence they still hold but haven’t acted on yet.

  11. PAUL CROFT
    How about “the retired should be encouraged not to retire”? If ageing has changed so that we are physically and mentally fit into our eighties, , what on earth is the point of dispensing with a couple of quintiles of the work force? If the economy is denying people, at both ends of the age spectrum, a place in wealth creation, fix the economy, not your old man or the old lady.

  12. PAUL CROFT
    Yes, the right hook or the upper cut to the solar plexus might have been the right follow-up in the ring, but that really would have got him into trouble.

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