This month’s online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 33%(-2), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 9%(+1). Changes are from the last online ComRes poll which was conducted in late September, just before the Lib Dem conference. It’s a shift towards Labour, but it is very much a reversion to the mean following an usually tight poll last month. On average, since Labour’s lead grew after the budget ComRes’s online polls have been showing an 8 point Labour lead, so this is bang on average.

As with YouGov’s leader ratings for the Sunday Times, ComRes’s leader approval ratings show improvements for both Cameron and Miliband following their conferences, but with Miliband enjoying a larger boost. Cameron’s net approval rating is up 6 to minus 21, Miliband’s net approval up 9 to minus 11.

UPDATE: Tonight there is also the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer. Their topline figures are CON 31%(+1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 10%(-1). Changes are all well within normal margin of error and everything remains in the normal range of nine to ten point leads. As with YouGov and ComRes, David Cameron has only a minor improvement to his ratings from conference season – up to minus 17 from minus 21 before the Conservative conference (in contrast, Opinium had Ed Miliband’s net rating up seven points following his party conference, a boost he has mostly held onto).


82 Responses to “ComRes/Sunday Indy – CON 33, LAB 41, LD 10, UKIP 9”

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  1. @ Anthony

    MS at PB is reporting that the two Eds are level on the economy. Is this a gain for them or reversion to the ComRes norm?
    8-)

  2. I think there’s also an Observer Opinium due tonight.
    8-)

  3. Does ComRes ask a best PM question? (on a mobile device)
    I ask because Miliband is ahead for approva with yougov but behind on best PM. Wonder if there’s a similar pattern with other pollsters.

    Also does anybody know when the next MORI is due? IIRC they’ve had far higher net approval for Miliband than other pollsters (they use different wording) so it’ll be interesting to see if he gains with them or if it’ll be more muted.

  4. Smithson has tweeted Lab 40% Con 31% in the Observer Opinion Poll. No Lib Dem or UKIP numbers. So an increase in the Com Res and a decrease in the Opinion. Kinda tells us things are around 9 or 10% methinks.

  5. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/oct/20/opinium-poll-labour-lead-tories

    Here’s the Opinium being reported in the Garuan.
    8-)

  6. Opinium highlights:

    Opinium now has Ed Miliband’s party on 40%, the Tories on 31%, UKIP on 10% and the Lib Dems on 9%.

    On the leaders’ personal ratings, Miliband has hung on to most of his conference “bounce” having a negative net rating of -11% compared to -10% two weeks ago.

    David Cameron’s personal ratings have improved since his conference speech in Birmingham ten days ago. He now has a net rating of -17% compared to -21% two weeks ago.

    When asked which party they would trust more to run the economy, 30% say the Tories and 29% Labour.
    8-)

  7. Amber – sort of. ComRes ask if people agree or disagree that they have trust in each pair on the economy, the net figure for each pair is the same (the proportion of people who actually say they trust Cameron/Osborne is higher, but so is their distrust figure). It is one of those questions that is infinitely better asked NOT using agree/disagree bloody statements! As I said the other day, there are various different ways of asking preferred party on the economy and they all give slightly different answers… but the basic position is that the two parties are neck and neck on it.

    Tingedfringe – no. You can’t ask it as an agree/disagree statement :).
    MORI ask it occassionally, but haven’t seen them ask it this year.

  8. Amber – ref the Opinium best on the economy question, see, pretty much neck and neck. Other companies show the same and have done for a while.

  9. Where is the ukip support coming from, its not all disaffected Tories, is it??

  10. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any notable change after Mitchell’s resignation and today’s bad headlines for the government, those polls wouldn’t reflect that.

  11. I’m expecting/ was anticipating a temporary movement away from the 8-10 point Labour lead ceiling- that should last until the final 6 months of this parliament if later wait till then for their policy detail.

    This neo-omnishambles of rail franchising, Plebgate and Firstclass ticket gate along with ‘hot air but no results’ in Europe surely must bump Labour up a few points to a 13-14 point lead….though it won’t last.

  12. ‘later’ = ‘labour’

    iPhone strikes again !

  13. Another poll with UKIP in double figures AND ahead of the Liberal Democrats! This is getting to be quite a regular thing.

  14. Good Evening from Wiltshire Boarding School.

    IAN PENNELL.

    Do you have any clear ideas about why the Liberal democrats are closing in on UKIP in the VI, and do you think they will overtake them by the time of the 2015 GE?

    I’m sorry, very very sorry for asking.

  15. A reminder of AW’s summary of ‘house effects’:

    “YouGov, ICM and ComRes’s online polls tend to show the highest shares of the vote for the Conservative party. However, in the case of YouGov this is cancelled out by a tendency to also show the highest levels of support for Labour.”

    The other two pollsters which are shown to slightly favour The Tories are Survation and Opinium.

    Those said to favour Labour are ComRes phone, Populus and IpsoMORI… but only very marginally; YouGov (see above),TNS-BMRB and Angus Reid.

    What I find curious is that one or two of the polling companies whose house effects tend to show higher Con VI (Con maintaining more of their 2010 VI through 2011 etc) seem to have shown a more marked decline since the budget/local elections/omnishambles than others.

    h
    ttp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6077

    @Anthony Wells

    Given that you show your method for calculating house effects, might there be some fluidity, (pollsters detecting trends in different ways due to their methodology)? I was wondering if you plan to return to the subject at some point.

  16. @ Anthony

    Thank you :-)

    You know that I am not a ComRes fan. To be honest, I was a bit sceptical about the worth of being ahead in their economic question.

    I have more respect for the YG questions which drill down into specific issues on the economy & the cuts. They usually don’t get the results which I’d like :-( but they’re better indicators of the public’s opinions about the economy.

  17. Ian – it is a very regular thing with Opinium and Survation (and occassionally TNS).

    It is practically unknown amongst other companies (YouGov have shown UKIP in third occassionally, but only once in double figure). No telephone poll has even shown either.

    I need to write a post at some point on the variation in UKIP support between companies

  18. UKIP’s VI seems to be creeping back up again after the summer, during which it fell, probably due in part to some government u-turns. Now that DC is talking about repatriating powers and seeming to rule out an in-out referendum on the EU, this seems probable fuel for the UKIP engine.

    Until recent times UKIP swapping 3rd place with the LD’s would have been all but unthinkable. Much has happened since May 2010, though.

  19. KeithP,

    “Now that DC is talking about repatriating powers and seeming to rule out an in-out referendum on the EU”.

    He has always followed up ruling out an in-out referendum by the phrase ‘for now’. Will be interesting to see if he is merely holdinbg out until a year or so until the GE, or whether he really won’t allow an in-out referendum to take place.

  20. There seems to be a Survation poll for the daily mail: Con 3, Lab 43, UKIP 12, LD 8.

    Seems to cover pre-Mitchell resignation.

  21. Sorry Cons 30 (!)

  22. Keith:

    You could have let me enjoy “3” for more than a minute

  23. There is also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday – their topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, others 7%. See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2220773/Tories-poll-rating-plummets-wake-Plebgate-storm.html

    Regards, Martyn

  24. Has Smithson tweeted YouGov for Times yet please?

  25. Was watching This Week, and they were discussing that in the next national election (Europeans 2014) it’s quite conceivable, that the Lib Dems could come 5th!!! They came 4th in 2009, because of their very unpopular stance on Europe and since their huge fall in popularity since May 2010, the Greens have already beaten them into 4th in London, so it’s quite possible the Greens could beat them to 5th in the Euros!

    2014 is going to be a big year, not only do we have the Scottish referendum, but it is quite possible according to pundits, that due to Cameron’s unpopularity, and UKIP’s strength on the European issue, that in 2014, they may win their first ever national election. (And still probably get 0 MP’s in 2015!)

  26. Labours share of the vote has been remarkebly consistant for 9 months – its seems to be low 40s all the way.
    The lib dems are simarly stuck on 10%.
    The only movement seems to between the tories and UKIP.
    This seems to suggest that Labour has not won over any of the people who voted tory last time – but with the collapse of the lib dem vote it doesn’t have to.

    Also the consistancy of the labour rating suggests that their support is very solid and that these voters are unlikely to
    float back to the lib dems.

    Barring an economic miricle or Labour deciding to make a manifesto commitment to exterminate kittens the next election looks to be in the bag for labour.

    I wonder wether the pary strategists realise all this? The tried and trused and tiresome focus on targetting swing voters in marginal constituencies may not be the best way to campaign.

    The Tories failed to get a majority last time because too many people feared they would be like the tories of the 80s. I cant see many of the non-tory voters of 2010 having their opinion changed on that front – so I guess the tories need to win back votes from UKIP.

    Labour meanwhile need to keep their lib dem defectors whilst continue to paint the tories as scary thatchertie retreads. So a Tory campaign chasing UKIP voters is going to play into their hands.

    Who’d want to be the tory election campaign manager?

  27. @MitM

    I doubt Ukip will come first in the Euros, because I assume Labour will. The question will be whether Con vote beats the UKIP vote. It may well do so. As for Libs coming fifth: it’d depend on whether the Greens will beat them (again, they may well do so).

    Regards, Martyn

  28. 1am Sunday

    Sunday Times journalist tweeting that there is “GROUNDBREAKING” poll on the Scottish referendum.

    Word is that it shows big pro-yes move following SNP Conference andf YES majority if hated Torie3s were thought to be coming back to Government.

    HAS SALMOND DONE OVER CAMERON?

  29. Martyn – we shall have to check properly tomorrow, but that looks like a candidate for “worst newspaper poll reporting ever”. As far as I can see the previous Survation poll had the Conservatives on 29%. “Tory poll rating plummets” is an extremely odd way of reporting a poll showing them increasing their support by one point.

    As I said, will check properly tomorrow.

  30. Martyn

    You think Labour will win the Euro elections? Really? I’m not making that as a partisan point against Labour, as the name suggests I’m in the middle. But we have an extremely Eurosceptic electorate, tired of the big 3 parties. The Euros are not only a chance to voice Euroscepticism on Europe, but also a chance to kick the main 3 parties without any real consequence on voters day to day lives.

    Labour hasn’t won the European elections since 1994, (thats nearly my entire life!) and even then it was extremely narrow, (a win of 2% over the Tories) who were extremely unpopular after 4 terms and heading to landslide defeat in 97

  31. @Anthony Wells

    Thank you.

    Regards, Martyn

  32. Thank you Martyn :)

  33. @MitM

    Insofar as one can make a prediction about the Euros this far out, yes, my current position is that Labour will win the Euros.. As we get closer to 2015 and the polls change to measure Euro-intention rather than House of Commons intention, expect me to revise my position based on facts.

    Regards, Martyn

  34. (sorry, 2014. My bad)

    Rgds, Martyn

  35. @Gracie

    You’re welcome.

    Regards, Martyn

  36. Take off 5% from Labour and add it to the Lib Dems.
    Take off 5% from UKIP and add it to the Tories.
    Not as simple as that of course – but some truth in it.

  37. JJB:

    Why not add all the don’t knows as well while you’re at it?

  38. YG Sunday Times
    Con 32
    Lab 43
    LD 9
    UKIP 9
    Govt Approval minus 30

  39. JJB – Scientific!

    YouGov
    Con 32, Lab 43, Lib 9, UKIP 9
    Approval -30 (+1)

    Net Approval:
    Cameron -19 (+1) (although M Smithson is reporting it as -21?)
    Miliband -18 (-4)
    Clegg -56 (+2)

    Pure Approval:
    Cameron 37 (nc)
    Miliband 33 (-4)
    Clegg 17 (nc)

    Coalition good or bad for people like you?
    Good – 16 (nc)
    Bad – 56 (-2)
    Net: -40 (+2)

    How is the coalition managing the economy?
    Well – 31 (+3)
    Badly – 58 (-5)
    Net: -27 (+8)

    What’s the state of the economy?
    Good – 5 (+3)
    Bad – 71 (-5)
    Net: -66 (+8)

    Looks like the good economic news has filtered in to the figures?

    Tax avoidance is legal, evasion is illegal, blah blah blah

    The government is not doing enough to reduce the amount of tax avoidance by companies – 77
    The government is already doing all it can
    reasonably be expected to do to reduce the amount
    of tax avoidance – 9

    Acceptable/Unacceptable to legally avoid tax?
    Acceptable – 26 (Con 38, Lab 17)
    Unacceptable – 64 (Con 56, Lab 76)

    If you had an accountant and could legally avoid tax, would you?
    Yes – 42 (Con 53, Lab 34)
    No – 29 (Con 22, Lab 39)
    DK – 18 (Con 16, Lab 18)
    I don’t pay income tax – 12 (Con 8, Lab 9)

    That’s an interesting split which shows complex attitudes – people think it’s wrong, the government should do more to crack down on it.. but given the opportunity, they’d avoid paying tax anyway.

    Various tax statements-
    High tax rates in the UK on business and the rich encourage tax avoidance and should be reduced – 19 (Con 31, Lab 12)
    High tax rates in the UK on business and the rich encourage tax avoidance, but the government should crack down on avoidance rather than cut taxes – 52 (Con 52, Lab 57)
    Tax rates in the UK on business and the rich are not too high and don’t encourage tax avoidance – 13 (Con 8, Lab 18)

  40. Where is the ukip support coming from, its not all disaffected Tories, is it??

    -Farage’s lot managed 17% at the Last Euro Elections in 2009 dropping back to 3% at the 2010 GE.

    I suspect there is always a market for the blame it on foreigners party but most people return to their usual voting intention at GE.

    I would for what it is worth predict a good performance for UKIP in the EURO’s and around 5% in the GE

  41. Think JJB is broadly right imo
    We can argue that net gain for Con from UKIP might be a bit lower as some temporary UKIP is 2010 Lab.

    Also re LDs it is not only the liklihood of them achieving 15% (maybe more) in 2015 but the spread of their losses.

    Reckon where they have MPs their vote will hold up well maybe only 2-4% swing away but in Lab/Tory marginals they will be squeezed even more by ABTs and some, but less, ABLabs.

    So Lab in reality a modest lead but on we are course for another hung parliament.

    FWIW, I think a good chance Cons most votes and Lab most seats and we will have the ‘biggest mandate’ conundrum.

  42. “Farage’s lot managed 17% at the Last Euro Elections in 2009 dropping back to 3% at the 2010 GE.”
    People vote for different things in different elections – I’d imagine most people voting UKIP in the European elections are people who want out of the EU (but don’t necessarily agree with UKIP policy) and that’s the easiest way to express the sentiment.

  43. It’s also interesting how quickly certain sections of the press are willing to turn on Cameron –
    After a good conference performance and good economic figures, they were full of praise for him – one minister resigns (over something that happened before the conference) and they’re calling for Boris again.

    While probably a worry for the Conservatives, it shows how quickly they can also turn back to supporting him.

  44. Good Morning All.
    STEVE.
    In Bournemouth there was a pub called The Opera House.

    When I told students that I was going to ‘The Opera’ on the coming Friday, they were impressed, since it was the ‘trendy place’ at the time.

    They did not realise I was talking about Verdi’s ‘OTELLO’

    I see Tebbit and Currie are in the news as well.

  45. STEVE.
    The nasty comment about the homeless on the way from the opera is the other Young, who was in the Thatcher Government.

    JIM JAM.
    I agree with you on your analysis that we are heading for another minority government in 2015.

  46. It is an interesting point whether or not UKIP would hold on to those VIs at an actual GE or whether the Tory voters who’ve been doing a bunk recently will come back home. I do not think that the case that they will see that voting UKIP will contribute to delivering a majority Labour government and therefore switch back to voting Tory on the way into the polling booth is a given There are a number of factors involved. Many UKIP supporters feel that a large part of the Tory party are merely ersatz eurosceptics and there “unsound” on Europe. With the increasing degree of polarisation with regard to the EU amongst the voters there is some evidence that the aforementioned voters disenchanted with the Tory party are growing in number on the right-wing. Then we get to the “competence” issue. The recent months have been frankly terrible on that score for this government in general and several senior ministers in particular. If the Tory defectors perceive of this government as both incompetent and “soft” on Europe it is no way a given (IMHO) that they will coming running home to mummy at a GE.

  47. Will the Tories drop below 30% as an average of polls within the next month or so, following recently bad publicity ? I think it is possible.

    Will Labour gain as a result ? No, I think turned off Tories will give a VI of UKIP.

    Will the Tories start to become more Eurosceptic as a result ? Yes they are already doing this, by announcing they will use opt outs that had already been agreed, but not implemented. Theresa May announced something last week, although she could not actually say what the government would do. Presumably as the Lib Dems don’t agree with some aspects.

    Could the Tories posturing on Europe and more aggressive approach on law/order issues, lead to a split in the coalition ? Possible, as I am not sure the Lib Dems will agree with some of the policy changes that have been mentioned.

  48. @chrislane1945

    It was Sir George Young, 6th Baronet, who made the opera/homeless comment whilst Minister for Housing and Planning in the Major government. He had been a junior minister and whip under Thatcher. Shadow Defence under Hague… at age 71 you would have to say he has been brought out of retirement from frontline politics to fill Mitchell’s shoes.

    David Young (Baron Young of Graffham), was a CPS thinktank director brought into government by Keith Joseph to oversee privatisation, later minister for Employment, then Trade and Industry. Cameron brought him in to review health and safety but he had to resign because his “never had it so good ever since this recession – this so-called recession” remark had punctured the austerity/all in it together rhetoric.

  49. I seem to recall that Lord, then David, Young was Chairman of the manpower services commission before joining the cabinet.
    Mrs T is reported to have said that whilst others bring my problems he brings me solutions. (or something like that)

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