This month’s online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 33%(-2), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 9%(+1). Changes are from the last online ComRes poll which was conducted in late September, just before the Lib Dem conference. It’s a shift towards Labour, but it is very much a reversion to the mean following an usually tight poll last month. On average, since Labour’s lead grew after the budget ComRes’s online polls have been showing an 8 point Labour lead, so this is bang on average.

As with YouGov’s leader ratings for the Sunday Times, ComRes’s leader approval ratings show improvements for both Cameron and Miliband following their conferences, but with Miliband enjoying a larger boost. Cameron’s net approval rating is up 6 to minus 21, Miliband’s net approval up 9 to minus 11.

UPDATE: Tonight there is also the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer. Their topline figures are CON 31%(+1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 10%(-1). Changes are all well within normal margin of error and everything remains in the normal range of nine to ten point leads. As with YouGov and ComRes, David Cameron has only a minor improvement to his ratings from conference season – up to minus 17 from minus 21 before the Conservative conference (in contrast, Opinium had Ed Miliband’s net rating up seven points following his party conference, a boost he has mostly held onto).


82 Responses to “ComRes/Sunday Indy – CON 33, LAB 41, LD 10, UKIP 9”

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  1. There was also a George Younger (4th Viscount Younger of Leckie), Sec of State for Scotland before replacing Hestletine at Defence after the Westland crisis.

    @Jim Jam

    He (David Young) is reported to have grabbed Norman Tebbit by the lapels and yelled “”Norman, listen to me, we are about to lose this ******* election.” (1987).

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  2. Seems like we are pretty much back to where the polls were pre-conference.

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  3. STEVE.
    The nasty comment about the homeless on the way from the opera is the other Young, who was in the Thatcher Government.
    -According to the New Statesmen it is the current Chief Whip who made this remark .
    I of course stand corrected if I am wrong

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  4. Tebbit has fiercely attacked DC.

    The ‘revolt’ by the 2010 intake of Con MPs should be an alarm bell for DC.

    DC is deep trouble with his party, IMO, for a wide range of reasons.

    Gove talked up DC post Mitchell’s resignation. Great positioning by Gove as a future leader of the Cons.

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  5. Good Morning again all.

    I think that the Young who said the homeless jibe was not the current speaker, and the NS may be wrong.

    ‘The rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate, He made us high and lowly and ordered their estate’ was sung today. OMG as they say.Harvest Day, apparently.

    Talking of Tebbit, he said to the now BBC Political Editor in 1986: ‘I don’t need you to tell me about the ******g IRA, when the Anglo Irish Agreement was signed.

    IMHO, Ed M should be a long way ahead, into high double digit lead at this stage, if Labour expects to win in 2015.

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  6. The ComRes tables are here:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Ios_&_SM_Political_Poll_October2012.pdf

    There are some interesting questions around the area of class and politics. There’s net disagreement (42% v 38%) to the statement The fact that David Cameron went to Eton makes it harder for him to be a good Prime Minister for the whole country and (45% v 38%)to The fact that Ed Miliband went to a comprehensive school means that he is more likely to be in touch with the concerns of most people. Obviously these are agree/disagree questions but if anything that should have helped the agree options.

    Similarly those polled disagree with Labour is more of a “one nation” party than the Conservatives by 36% to 33% though even more strongly with The Conservatives are more of a “one nation” party than Labour by 45% to 25%.

    It all suggests that Labour may have to be careful with how it plays the “posh boy” card. It may be supported by the core vote (this is clear in the cross-tabs) but could also alienate less attached and undecided voters if done too stridently.

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  7. Re: UKIP vote.

    The BNP vote has dropped to 1%. Their old voters probably prefer UKIP to tory.

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  8. Tebbit’s demand for more party discipline is an sign of indiscipline in and of itself.

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  9. Very odd reporting in the Mail on their poll:

    “Conservatives 13 points behind Labour, one point ahead of UKIP Party”

    Con 30 UKIP 12 – Conservatives 1 point ahead of UKIP? Huh?

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  10. @chrislane1945

    The earliest web source attributing the homeless/opera quote to Sir George Young that I can find so far is from 2002:

    h
    ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1986119.stm

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  11. While I’m in linky mood here are the Opinium ones:

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/VI_16_10_2012.pdf

    No significant extra questions above the standard VI and leaders stuff apart from one that asks Now that the party conference season has ended, which, if any, party would you say you trust to handle the economy generally? which has headline figures of Con 30%; Lab 29%; L/D 5%; Other 9%; DK 27%.

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  12. The polls are very interesting at the moment given that Cameron is playing Russian roulette with his party and the public at the moment, with it has to be said 5 bullets in the gun instead of one. Given that I would have expected to see Miliband surging ahead in the polls rather than returning to pre conference levels, of course we have the impending police commissioner vote coming up which will no doubt turn into yet another fiasco so things may change.
    Problem Cameron has, the press and to some extent the media in general have for the moment decided it’s Cameron’s time in the barrel, fair enough, the press is fickle, but if as looks likely the economy will improve and unemployment keeps going down then the public may forgive/forget the Tories over the fairly trivial matters the press have had fun with of late, the press seem to work on a build them up and knock them down policy, one thing is for sure no party can count on any of them the Leveson Enquiry has put all politicians firmly in there sights.

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  13. “if as looks likely the economy will improve and unemployment keeps going down”

    I think that will not happen, sadly. Stimulus required.

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  14. @Turk – “….but if as looks likely the economy will improve and unemployment keeps going down…”

    None of us can ever be sure about how this recovery will pan out, but the expectation for Tuesday’s GDP figure is for +0.7%. This appears very good news, but just as pro government commentators seized on the one off Bank Holiday factors in Q2, which was claimed to have dented growth by 0.5%, they should now get very excited about the bounce back in Q3. Adding this half a percent in means we’ve barely crawled out of the second recession in real terms. Because of this factor, most forecasters have penciled in extremely modest growth of 0.1 – 0.2% for Q4 – really nothing of a recovery.

    I suspect we are a long way from the significant growth that we need to make this feel like a recovery, and the latest set of productivity statistics suggest a continuing sharp fall in productivity across all sectors. This indicates that unless demand growth picks up sharply, the rise in employment cannot continue.

    Leaving a recession the government told us we weren’t going to have is certainly good news, but I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if we had a few more negative quarters in the next couple of years.

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  15. ALEC, I think that an improving economy, as in 1964 and in 1997 is not bad news for Labour, as voters then feel ‘safe’ enough to vote lefty.

    Peter Shore used to say this.

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  16. The fincial media is reporting that there will be growth in Q3 because of the Olympics. But there is the expectation that another round of QE will be used in an effort to stop the UK going back into recession in Q1 of 2013.
    8-)

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  17. I think Q4 GDP is now more important than Q3 , which seems to attract a consensus around + 0.7%.to 0.8%

    There will be analysis which highlights the effect from Q2 & the Olympics.

    If Government spokesmen have any sense ( which is asking a lot, I know) , they will highlight these factors readily. No indication whatsoever of complacency, will allow them to attack Labour for continually making even modest good news sound like a bad thing.

    If-and clearly it is a big If -even modest improvements in GDP & employment become consistent, the Government can start to attack EM where it hurts-ie criticising for purely political reasons, even when there is better news -and without offering alternatives.

    Looking back to that You Gov 14% lead ( 6 Oct 31/45/8/8 ..-37 )
    there have been these changes in responses :-

    Approval -37 to -30
    DC -24 to -19 ( with EM -9 to -18 )
    Coalition good/bad for you . -43 to -40
    Managing economy well. -33 to -27
    State of economy good/bad for you. -70 to -66

    If these changes indicate that economic news-both general & specific to “you” -is impacting support for both DC & the Government, it does add weight to the “it’s the economy” factor as the ultimate game changer in this parliament.

    But much more MItchellitis & the like , and any economic good news will all be washed away in a tide of stuff about incompetent toffs.

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  18. Hearing about all this economic good news makes me wonder. I always asked, well if the economy doesn’t improve, what will Cons do? They will be the up the creak without a paddle. But then on reflection, the same is true for Labour. If we do start getting our economy going, what will Labour’s argument be then? Redistribution of wealth again?

    Also am thinking of subscribing to a French paper. I’m already learning French (started a few weeks ago so not related to this) and would love to keep track of Hollande’s funny activities.

    He was even mentioned on Xtra Factor last night. I was shocked Xtra Factor went political, but Caroline Flack made a point that a contestants popularity had gone downhill just like Francois Hollande’s. Then later, can’t remember the context but she mentioned the poll showing that Sarkozy would beat Hollande if they had the run off now.

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  19. @ MANINTHEMIDDLE
    ‘2014 is going to be a big year, not only do we have the Scottish referendum, but it is quite possible according to pundits, that due to Cameron’s unpopularity, and UKIP’s strength on the European issue, that in 2014, they may win their first ever national election. (And still probably get 0 MP’s in 2015!)’

    Labour is highly likely to win the EU elections in 2014 .Back in 1994 Labour actually polled 44% compared with just 28% for the Tories.
    The 2% lead you quoted earlier relates to 1989!

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  20. MiM

    Talking of what EM might face if he won in 2015, in the context of France is a good analogy.

    The booing which EM received at the anti-cuts rally , from the moment he started talking about Labour cuts illustrates your point.

    And by then Debt, will be as big a concern as Deficit- not far short of £1.5 Trillion, and 80% + x GDP.

    These are the sort of numbers which are causing a socialist administration in France to fall out of favour with everyone-from business leaders averse to high taxes ; to unions & the left averse to any reduction in the size of the State in France.

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  21. @MIM

    You make a good point…If the economy does improve,things will look better for the government.

    Just like `redistributing the proceeds of growth` became `austerity` for Cameron,Labour will change it`s position to reflect the mood of the country

    Currently Cameron scores better than the Tories…If the economy improves but the gaffes continue,it`s possible this position will be reversed.It will be interesting to see what Tory MP`s do in this situation

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  22. MITM,

    Good luck with the French. I learnt (am still learning) over the last few years from listening to the radio and reading all the French novels in the library, dictionary in hand.

    Also you can get free to view French tv channels online, like iTele and France24. Google free french tv.

    You can read Le Monde, Liberation and others online for free, though I haven’t looked at those two for a while and it may be different now.

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  23. A fascinating analysis of Hollande’s problems, with a hark back to Schroeder’s transformation of the German economy from similar difficulties , back in the early part of the last decade :

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/20interesting12/10/21/uk-france-reform-idUKBRE89K05F20121021

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  24. My prediction for Euros 2014 (a bit premature I know, but it’s the next big election)

    1. Ukip
    2. Labour
    3. Conservative
    4. Green
    5. Lib Dem

    In 2015, UKIP still get 0 MP’s.

    In 2009 it was, Con, Ukip, Lab. Since then it’s Con hemoriging votes. Personally, I agree with the political consensus of wanting to be part of a reformed, more democratic, more transparent European Union. But the public as a large are approaching 50% saying get us out now.

    The Euros are unique, as they allow people to give they’re say on Europe, kick the 3 main parties, and not have any negative impact on their lives. Also, turnout will be very differential. Eurosceptics, and Europhobes are much more passionate about it than Europhiles and in my opinion are more likely to turn out.

    Cameron appealed to Eurosceptics in 2009 offering a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, but that was seen to be a lie. So many Tories who will be Tory in 2015, may wish to say actually on Europe, we agree with Ukip. Then of course we have the generic switch of Cons now being the unpopular government so losing votes that way, Labour likely to gain.

    Also as the Euro crisis continues, Euroscepticism grows. And finally, actually there is quite a significant part of Labour that aren’t fond of the EU. Even people on the far left could vote for UKIP in the Europeans, as they aren’t seen as having any influence on day to life, and the far left wants out as well.

    I remember when the French voted against the European Constitution. The European elite blamed communists and UKIP interfering. Not usually comfortable bedfellows.

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  25. There’s no way to predict the Euro elections yet. A lot could depend on how much resources the Parties are able & willing to deploy.

    From DC’s perspective, I’d imagine: A good showing in the Euro elections for the Tories might help a bit to turn the tide of eurosceptism in the Party. And soundly beating UKIP would be a huge win for the Tories, if they are confident they could do it. To throw down the gauntlet & lose to UKIP might be a faux-pas too far.

    That’s why political strategists get paid their money; to make decisions about things like this! ;-)

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  26. CHRIS LANE wrote

    “Do you have any clear ideas about why the Liberal democrats are closing in on UKIP in the VI, and do you think they will overtake them by the time of the 2015 GE?
    I’m sorry, very very sorry for asking.”

    Chris

    Despite the great unpopularity of the Lib Dems after they got into Government with the Tories and then broke promises on tuition fees I think their support will rise slowly- possibly to be about 14% by the General Election. This is because a lot of folk have short memories- and no more does that apply to working class and student types who are more likely to support the Party.

    Vince Cable’s promises of Wealth Taxes and more banker-bashing will help the Lib Dems because these cohorts of the electorate will approve of the rich being taxed more so that they can have more education spending, pupil premiums, etc. Furthermore, as the economy gets out of recession- although I believe growth will only remain paltry- other folk may well give the Liberal Democrats credit for some of the decisions taken by the Coalition Government.. Also, much of the adverse publicity over recent months has hardly touched the Lib Dems- it has mainly been Tory Ministers who have been in the firing line.

    For all these reasons I would expect there to be some bounce back in Liberal Democrat support, but it wont be by more than a few percentage points. Most of the Socialist Vote in Britain will not forgive the Lib Dems for getting into coalition with the Tories, supporting Spending Cuts and breaking their pre-election pledge on tuition fees (certainly they will be in no mood to forgive before 2015).

    *******************************************

    As regards UKIP it is not just a Party about “Leaving The European Union”- although that remains a central policy. They have policies on new power stations, lower (and flatter) taxes and a tough stance on law/order and immigration. They are economically right-wing and support a smaller state, less regulation and less tax; and the electorate are beginning to wake up to the fact that they have a range of different policies to those put forward by the other Parties.

    People who work hard and are angry at Government Largesse at their expense, people who are worried about the possibility of the lights going out because of the “green energy” policies as practised by the main Parties, as well as those concerned about the growing impact of the EU on our economy and our potential loss of sovereignty- are going to be attracted by the policies that UKIP offer. And as UKIP and their policies become more widely known I am confident that their support will increase.

    The local Shire-County elections next year, and the Euro Elections in 2014 will provide UKIP with a platform to demonstrate that their policies are relevant- and vital- for Britain; and to show that they and they alone are really on the side of the hard-working and over-taxed Middle Classes. They are therefore likely to continue to grow at the expense of the Tories; If there are right-wing Tory MPs (i.e Douglas Carswell, Bill Cash) who get so worried about the Tories neglecting their traditional support base and so fret about their own futures, that they defect to UKIP then UKIP is likely to receive a further boost to their credibility in the eyes of the electorate.

    On the other hand if a major scandal involving UKIP MEPs our councillors occurs, or if they get beset by major infighting then UKIP will lose support. If that happens I do not think the Tories- with their tax-the-rich, pro-EU policies as they stand- will benefit. Most of these supporters will either not vote at all, or they will find another anti-EU and low tax Party/organisation to support (like the Taxpayers Alliance).

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  27. Maninthemiddle,

    I cannot see Labour polling less than 35% in the 2014 EU elections – UKIP will get nowhere near that.
    Remember also that in 2009 UKIP was helped significantly by the expenses scandal that was then at its peak. All the major parties suffered as a consequence – particularly Labour as the governing party .

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  28. IanP

    I’m sure that flat tax rate policy will be wildly attractive when the electorate understands it.

    A flat rate combined Income Tax and NI of 31% for all income over £11.5k.

    I reckon that someone on £30k pa would get a tax cut of ~ £400 per year from that policy. Someone on £1million

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  29. IanP

    I’m sure that flat tax rate policy will be wildly attractive when the electorate understands it.

    A flat rate combined Income Tax and NI of 31% for all income over £11.5k.

    I reckon that someone on £30k pa would get a tax cut of ~ £400 per year from that policy. Someone on £100k pa would get a cut of about £6k. And someone on £1million pa would get a cut that was well over £100k. (All rough figures but not a million miles out.)

    And of course there would be huge cuts in public spending to balance the books.

    I assume UKIP’s slogan wouldn’t be “We’re all in it together”?

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  30. Re: Tory Youth rebellion.

    I suppose a big factor in Cameron’s loss of authority amongst the 2010 intake is that the bulk of them are on narrow majorities many of the extremely narrow, having gained their seats from Labour incumbents. This makes them extremely likely to lose their seats at the next election and so, if they haven’t been given a ministerial post by now, have very little to lose.

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  31. Ian Pennel,

    Taxpayers Alliance is a tory organisation, set up by leading tories and media people.

    UKIP is just right-wing tories and that is going to be about 15% of the population tops.

    Workers may want to get out of the EU, but be less keen on 70 hour weeks on below minimum wage and no rights at work.

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