This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. YouGov’s polls do seem to be settling back into their pre-conference range of 9-10 point Labour leads.

There is also a new TNS BMRB poll out with topline figures of CON 29%(-2), LAB 42%(-2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 10%(+2), Others 11%(+2). Changes are from their previous poll a week ago.


105 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS-BMRB polls”

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  1. BILLY BOB
    ” YouGov Labour lead falls below the !0% in the last fortnight to 9.8%.”

    OMG!

  2. On another matter – we’ve analysed the state of the US Presidential Debate now that the second TV debate has finished.

  3. The TNS-BNRP poll looks interesting- UKIP three points clear of the Lib Dems;- UKIP have a raison d’ être, which the Lib Dems no longer seem to possess!

    On the subject of the Labour lead I cannot see this decreasing- the Tory-led Government shows no signs of “getting a grip”- Andrew Mitchell, George Osborne travelling First Class without a first-class ticket, the Prime Minister’s unravelling Energy Price Policy, the West Coast Main Line fiasco- what will the next bit of sleaze, incompetence, U-turns and apparent-to-voters arrogance from the Government take the form of?? It’s far more than the unpopularity of some of the fiscal policies that is damaging the Tory Poll Position.

    The forthcoming Corby by-election is certain to deliver a thumping win for Labour- even if the Government actually shows signs of competence and gets a grip- so entrenched now is the refusal of many more voters to trust the Tories. This win will result in momentum that will further increase the Labour lead- it will probably be 14 to 15% by Christmas.

    I write as one who despairs at the prospect of Ed Miliband winning the next Election, but who (sadly) concedes this is now almost certain to happen. The Boundary Changes will not be happening, which means that even if the Tories get ahead of Labour on 2% by Election Day (a miracle will be required!) Labour will still be the largest Party and will govern either in coalition with the Lib Dems (or as a minority Government with the SNP and Plaid Cymru supporting Labour).

    If I were a betting man I would consider it an Insurance Policy against troubled times ahead by betting £2000, say, on a Labour win- and then using the winnings to protect against the effect of the inevitable tax increases on businesses which would damage any shares/investments that I have.

    Which begs a question, what odds are William Hill putting on a Labour win?? And would betting £2000 be a worthwhile investment/savings insurance policy? I am beginning to think the answer to both those questions might be “Yes”.

  4. IAN PENNELL
    “I write as one who despairs at the prospect of Ed Miliband winning the next Election, but who (sadly) concedes this is now almost certain to happen.”

    Reasons?

  5. My own hunch is that the labour lead is rather soft, I do not suspect that this is because those intending to vote labour are liable to turn in large numbers to the lib dems or the greens. There may however be many would be Tory voters who are so dismayed at the omnishambles etc that they are registering as UKIP or don’t know – a slight upturn in the economy and they will be back where they naturally belong.. As, however, the Tories were unable to win a majority last time in circumstances very favourable to them I don’t see how they can do this next time either. All this, however, is simply based on gut feeling and I have no idea what evidence there may or may not be against it.

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