YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 41, LD 8, UKIP 10
This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%.
The seven point Labour lead is lower than YouGov have shown of late – it may be the first sign of a conference boost for the Tories, or it may just be normal margin of error. The temporary boosts parties get from their conferences normally tend to appear after the leaders’ speeches, so we shall see.
Just for the record, David Cameron spoke slightly earlier in the day than leaders normally do, so probably about a quarter of this poll would have been conducted after David Cameron started speaking (though of course, that is definitely not the same thing as assuming a quarter of the respondents had actually had chance to see any reports of the speech! Tomorrow’s poll will be the first when a significant proportion of respondents will actually have had chance to see reports of the speech.)
Veep debate.
A Joe-da-man win on points.
Not enough to turn back the last weeks drift to Romney but probably enough to halt any further drift until the next weeks Presidential debate.
It’s up to Obama now to save himself in next weeks ‘town hall’ and then the final debate.
ROBBIEALIVE
It’s more “banal” to attribute concepts such as “states whose power structure & elites cannot be distinguished from each other” to those who didn’t suggest these notions.
That’s just lazy thinking.
That all wars are the result of one political elite trying to dominate other political elites is self evident.
That the causation of WWII was significantly affected by the settlement of WWI is equally self-evident – as is that the causes of WWI were significantly affected by the settlement of the Franco-Prussian War etc etc.
@ Old Nat
“What a disappointing post. ;-(
I was hoping that you were going to weigh in with “America, through John Wayne, won every war”
We’ve had almost every other bit of “historical” nonsense on the thread so far.”
Disappointed? But the Nats won? You’re a Nat. You should be happy!
Anyway, I would not go into false fantasyland stuff. Yes, our military is second to none and we’ve won nearly every war we’ve fought. But not every war. We lost the War of 1812 and we lost the Vietnam War.
Btw, did you know that John Wayne had a height complex? He was 6’4 and yet constantly felt inferior. I guess it’s kind of like a form of anorexia. The John Wayne stuff is usually spewed by those who wouldn’t actually want to fight in war or sacrifice for a war themselves.
SoCalLiberal
I have just watched it. Definitely a Biden win – he knew the facts very well.
Ryan came across as a bit of a war monger – Alfghanistan, Iran, Syria. I particularily like Biden explaining that the Alfghans were now going into the most dangerous zones not Americans Ryan seemed not to really understand a draw down.
On taxes Ryan did not really explain at all but Biden raised a lot of concerns about this i.e. mortgage tax relief. So basically take money from the middle class and give it to the rich.
Making abortion illegal not sure if that is a vote winner.
SOCALLIBERAL
“But the Nats won? You’re a Nat. You should be happy!”
On that basis, David Cameron will be happy, Ed Milliband will be happy, Jim Murphy will be happy, Mariano Rajoy will be happy, Colonel Francisco Alaman will be happy, Artur Mas will be happy, as will the Nats campaigning to be President of “the greatest country on earth”!
Fortunately, there isn’t much in common between Rajoy and Alaman and the rest of us. There are Nats and nats, just as there are Republicans and republicans, Democrats and democrats.
Beware of applying labels from one political system to another! :-)
@ Liz H
Sun_Politics YouGov poll: Lab 42%, Con 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 7%
looks like Labour vote is holding (about 43%) con might be up slightly and lib dem has weakened (8% in last four yougov)
Good Morning All. 7% lead post conferences. LD and UKIP being squeezed.
Very close race to the GE in 2015, I think.
adam
“I do argue that WW1 generals are routinely criticised by people who do not have any idea what they would have done differently and that British generals were specifically the most successful generals of the war.”
I think more tanks and more planes might have helped. Running into machine gun fire didn’t seem to be working.
NICK:
The cunning plan.
Lions led by donkeys.
Hard faced men who looked as though they had done well out of the War (Baldwin’s description of the Liberals and Tories after the War).
Medals sold for food stamps by men who could not find work.
No Homes for heroes.
Looking at the Tory resurgence on today’s (yesterday’s) YouGov….it looks like it is in the Rest Of The South. Everywhere else, apart from being under represented compared to RoS, is staunchly Lab.
The question has to be asked…does piling up more votes in Reigate help Con at all?
The Society it wants is broadly the society I want -
Con 28 (+2)
Lab 28 (+1)
Lib 10 (-3)
Is led by people of ability -
Con 21 (+2)
Lab 16 (nc)
Lib 3 (-1)
Prepared to make tough decisions
Con 48 (+6)
Lab 11 (nc)
Lib 4 (-2)
Seems to chop and change all the time
Con 24 (+1)
Lab 23 (+3)
Lib 31 (-2)
Decent numbers for the Conservatives – clear bounce in able to take tough decisions, but no real damage to Labour.
Best PM (Can’t find any Cameron tables yet?)
Cameron 35 (+4)
Miliband 21 (-6)
Clegg 5 (nc)
But if we compare to pre-Milibounce period -
Cameron 35 (+3)
Miliband 21 (-1)
Clegg 5 (nc)
So still a clear bounce for Cameron, but for Miliband it’s not clear if he’s been damaged or if it’s just a case of fading Milibounce.
It’ll be interesting to see approval ratings this weekend – if we see a similar pattern, Miliband should drop back to the minus 25-30 area, while Cameron should surge ahead.
So we should give it another couple of weeks before we make any judgements.
If I were to guess, I suspect that any bounce for Cameron would have a longer lasting effect, whereas the Milibounce obviously faded relatively quickly.
Sergio
Congrats on your fourth child.
Too early to read a great deal into this first poll taken after the Conference season, but a 7% lead for Labour, even if somewhat reduced from a few weeks ago, suggests that the three major parties, in sporting parlance, have slugged out a fairly low scoring draw.
For those who may be tempted to get over-enthused by the Tory bounce, I’d offer two caveats and provisos. Firstly, if any poll was going to be the most favourable for the Tories, then it had to be this one, taken as it was in the immediate aftermath of Cameron’s speech. Secondly, just by virtue of the sequence of the Party Conferences, the Tories always have the inbuilt advantage of going last. This running order offers two, albeit fleeting, advantages. Firstly, you can have the last word and leave the final impression on the public and, secondly, you can gainsay and rebut all that has gone before. For example, Cameron rewrote his speech in the light of Miliband’s the week before. That’s one hell of an advantageous thing to be able to do. Miliband had no such option.
Accordingly, with the Labour VI almost untouched, I’d say we might soon revert to business as usual in the polls (i.e, circa 10% Labour leads) quite soon. Only a sharp drop in the Labour rating and/or a Tory surge rather than an upwards twitch, would convince me that any significant shift in public opinion had occurred as a result of the Party Conferences.
By the way, is there some unwritten rule that says that the Tory Conference always has to be the final Conference of the season?
@CB11
” Secondly, just by virtue of the sequence of the Party Conferences, the Tories always have the inbuilt advantage of going last. This running order offers two, albeit fleeting, advantages. Firstly, you can have the last word and leave the final impression on the public and, secondly, you can gainsay and rebut all that has gone before. For example, Cameron rewrote his speech in the light of Miliband’s the week before. That’s one hell of an advantageous thing to be able to do. Miliband had no such option.”
True, but I would add that going first can give one an edge in the ‘steal the show’ sense. Many have been saying Ed did just that up till now. Maybe they both did.
It seems that the Cameron factor is key to the Conservative fortunes for now. Boris may be popular, but any treat is popular until it’s a daily meal.
7% lead for two days. Given that the majority of the ‘veto bounce’ was lost to the budget (pastygate etc.) and assuming this 7% lead is soft (I doubt it will stay 7% or less beyond this time next week), the government needs to deliver better budget measures next time, while the opposition needs to think up a few policies and Ed needs to add to his performance with some non-spin (i.e. substance over presentation).
NickP
‘The question has to be asked…does piling up more votes in Reigate help Con at all?’
Well it won’t hinder them. A few days ago you were pondering a Labour victory there, so ‘every little helps’.
In fact the ‘little’ at 35% is just on the MOE border, but AW told us that this poll would show if there was a Conference bounce. You would have to be a very blind partisan to think that there has been.
Back to normal next week, thank goodness.
“Good Morning All. 7% lead post conferences. LD and UKIP being squeezed.
Very close race to the GE in 2015, I think.”
I agree. I know there are a few on here who are convinced that Labour will walk the next election – and get a nice, hefty majority – but I think everything points to a close one at the moment.
@Statgeek
“It seems that the Cameron factor is key to the Conservative fortunes for now. Boris may be popular, but any treat is popular until it’s a daily meal.”
True, and I thought Max Hastings was good on this in an article he wrote for the Guardian yesterday. As someone who knows Johnson well, and who isn’t politically antagonistic towards him, Hastings assessment of him provides food for thought for the budding Johnsonites amongst us.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/10/boris-johnson-unfit-to-be-prime-minister
Haven’t seen the debate yet, but looking forward to it having read through Patton Oswalt’s twitter feed… here is an interjection from Rex Huppke?:
The debate so far: Paul Ryan: “WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!” Joe Biden: “Hah! This little nerd is funny!”
HOWARD help them what?
Looking at the tables I am thinking that Conservatives may gain some southern seats and loss others to Labour (those nearer to the north and east of the south).
Labour will also be gaining more seats outside of the south and in Scotland where the SNP will gain as well.
The big losers being the Libdems and this might even extend into losses in the west country hart-land, we are talking Armacleggon here going back to the number of MPS pre liberal/ SDP mearger and maybe even 1970′s levels.
Challenging articele on the G spot about the north/south political divide and the issues facing the Cons in securing a better performance in the north at the next GE.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/oct/12/conservatives-conservative-conference-2012-northern-england-david-cameron-boris-johnso
Permanent Secretary Rutnam of DfT apologises , in person & in writing to Greening & Villiers for errors by “officials in this Department” on WCML & for giving them false assurances.
Respect, as I believe one needs to say these days.
Latest in the list of tragi-comic stories about “Tax Collection” , Greek style:-FRance & Germany have been investigating the tax affairs of their own nationals, and handed GReece a copy of a list of high value Greek deposits at HSBC in Switzerland. The Greek authorities lost it ………..or perhaps that should be “lost it”.
RE WWI. Times leader today hits the spot about the rightness of upcoming commemoration.
The defence of the sovereignty of small nations ( Historian Fritz Fischer refers).
They conclude with this :-
” For all their tarnished reputations, Britain’s politicical leaders in 1914 enunciated correctly the principle of the defence of small nations. Those who fought and died to uphold that principle command pride before pity.”
Edward Thomas, one of my favourite poets , did not survive the War, and wrote this beautiful poem whilst training in France.
So many many of the 750,000 British dead must have had thoughts like these as they prepared for battle :-
http://movehimintothesun.wordpress.com/2011/04/20/rain-edward-thomas/
CROSSBAT11
I read Hastings on Boris.
A timely warning to those who like to have comedy & statesmanship combined in one entity.
In the end , you get one or the other.