This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%. The eight point lead for Labour is well within the normal margin of error of the 9-10 point leads that YouGov have been showing in recent months, though perhaps it is worth noting that they’ve shown the Labour lead in single figures for three polls in a row.

Fieldwork for this poll took place on Monday evening and night and during the day on Tuesday, so it is the final “pre-Miliband speech poll”. Tomorrow morning’s poll (and those for the rest of the week and in the Sunday Times) will be our first chance to see what effect Miliband’s generally well received speech has had, and what sort of boost the Labour party get from their conference.


160 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 8”

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  1. @Colin

    Frankly, an office manager with a little common sense could get better stationary deals than some of the examples we see. Said person would cost a fraction for a better service.

    Big lead for Ed, but nothing bigger than we’ve seen in the past few months (3 x 14 in May, 2 x 14 in June, 2 x 13 September). Perhaps the reaction to the West Coast line issues are yet to reflect in the polls.

    Government popularity hasn’t changed too much (see previous sentence).

    It’s an outlier from the perspective of recent polls, and one or two crossbreaks are a little unusual. I think I’ll invent a cheesy, eighties game show catchphrase to sum up:

    Five in row, says it’s a go. :)

  2. If Gus O’Donnel has come out with his guns loaded, expect some fun.

    It looks like there is more to this than “the fault lies squarely in the DoT” and it will be interesting to see if, once again, the cover up turns out to be worse than the crime.

  3. I reckon the lead will grow for tomorrow.

    It doesn’t matter who’s to blame or whether the one nation mantra stands up to scrutiny: the public only get the headlines and if politicians live by soundbites it serves them right when they get bitten back.

  4. STATGEEK

    Yep.-they are a major, major problem.

    Saw bits of the debates. Thing which struck me immediately was that Obama looked down when Romney was speaking-not at Romney.

    It looked a bit “sheepish”.

    Is there a behavioural trait for which the avoidance of eye contact is a known symptom?

  5. Colin says: ‘I guess you are more class conscience than me.’

    LOL!

  6. @Bazsc

    Actually, there’s not much evidence either that underpaying scientists (and, ftr, science is my background and so I enthusiastically embrace the idea that we should pay scientists more) is actually much of a factor in skills shortage except at quite junior levels (not surprisingly, science graduates are not very enthused by the idea of filling technicial roles at 17kpa, and hence we’re short of technicians).

    the issue is more to do with the skills balance of current scientists.

  7. MIKEMS

    It isn’t me who constantly refers to Tofs & Eton, & Comprehensives -or actually takes the time to check out the school which an tv journalist went to , before deciding whether you admire them or not.!!

    I just don’t see people through this ridiculous prism.

    I

  8. NICKP

    @”If Gus O’Donnel has come out with his guns loaded, expect some fun.”

    On the basis of the Naughtie interview-he hasn’t.

    He sounded reluctant & disengaged-going through the motions-ie retired.

    But it was all really self serving defence of the Civil Service, with minor acknowledgement of the “need to improve ” on procurement ! -which was exactly what Naughtie wanted him there for .

  9. The Tory Party cannot win in 2015. This is for a number of reasons.

    Firstly, the demographics have changed the mainly older voters who gave Thatcher her victories in 79, 83 and 87 have all but passed away now and there is no longer the consistent 43% polling they achieved from 79 to 92.

    Secondly, despite Labour having a weak leader and being tired after 13 years of government and the Tories having by far the best leader available they still could not get an overall majority. Are we seriously saying that Miliband will do less well than Brown’s 29% in 2010.

    Thirdly, the Lib Dems positioned themselves to the left of Labour with Labour voters voting for them in protest and a fair chunk of them will come back to the Labour Party in 2015 especially with policies such as the graduate tax.

    Finally, the cancellation of the boundary changes means Labour needs to be just 1 or 2% ahead to get a majority. The question is not will Labour be the largest party it is whether they will or will not have a majority. I think they will do it by about 20.

  10. with UKIP and LibDems level pegging so long, surely it is perverse not to routinely add them to polls and report their figures too?

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