Tonight’s monthly ComRes phone poll for the Indy has topine figures of CON 35%(nc), LAB 38%(-4), LDEM 15%(+3), Others 12%(+1). Changes are from ComRes’s last telephone poll a month ago. The three point lead is the lowest any poll has shown since April, and the lowest ComRes has shown since March. Leaving aside ICM, who consistently show higher support for the Lib Dems anyway, it is the highest level of Lib Dem support in any poll for over a year.

I will give my normal caveats about being careful about polls showing sharp movements – sure, they could reflect a genuine change in public support, but they could equally be normal sample error. The poll does, however, come after a YouGov/Sunday Times poll showing Labour’s lead dropping and it would not be particularly surprising to see the Liberal Democrats enjoy some degree of a boost from their conference. Even if other polls do show the same don’t get too excited about it – there is every chance Labour will have their own boost in the polls later this week and the Conservatives in a week’s time. Conference season is often a rollercoaster of polls going up and down as each party gets its own shot of positive publicity, wait and see what it looks like when the season is over.

The rest of the ComRes poll had trust in the economy questions (Cameron & Osborne were trusted by 30%, Miliband & Balls by 24%) and a question on whether Miliband and Cameron has what it took to be a good PM. 22% of people thought Miliband had what it took, 39% thought Cameron did.


268 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 35, LAB 38, LDEM 15”

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  1. @ann in wales; I can assure you Ann that people aren’t exactly pleased about Labour in Wales. Only 1 part of the country is cutting the NHS and that is Wales and Wales is run by Labour. The cuts to the NHS are starting to effect public opinion, its a widely discussed subject especially out West in places like Llanelli and they aren’t blaming the Tories, their blaming Labour. If the Llanelli AM stands down to ill health, Plaid Cymru could easily win back the seat and leave Labour without its minority and unable to hold power on its own. Lets not forget the new Labour administration is already hated in Cardiff, in my part of Cardiff where Labour won a lot of seats from the Tories in the Locals on just a handful of votes they’ve announced plans to build thousands upon thousands of houses on green land and also this talk of a new congestion charge in Cardiff is annoying many. I wouldn’t be too contempt Ann, Labour is not as liked as you think in Wales and the Tories do still get a fairly large share of the vote – 25% in the 2012 Assembly Elections.

  2. Make that 2011

  3. james Landale:

    “and so on ad mauseum”

    “perhaps one day the geek will inherit the earth”

    Is this really what BBC “reporting” has come to? We can read that on ConHome ot the Express. I thought the BBC offered impartial reporting

  4. @A in W
    ‘Oh come on Howard,do you really think Clegg could have pulled a speech like
    That off.The man who ended his own conference speech with”let’s go for it”’

    I don’t know Ann, I didn’t hear it, thankfully, (I only read ‘Corse Matin’ over the last fortnight and thus am only knowledgeable about vendetta murders and people drowning off northern Corsican beaches..

    I just think he is a better smoosher (yiddish) or (as he speaks Dutch and may read this), a ‘vlooper’ .

  5. PAULCROFT

    “I thought the BBC offered impartial reporting”

    :-) Self-deprecating humour at its best!

  6. Howard,I envy you your holiday in Corsica,and perhaps it is a good idea to go
    On holiday during party conference time,I think we probably all get too .uptight
    At these times.I know I do

  7. I must admit i have just read Landale and thought I had perhaps missed the subtleties of his humour.

    Too long in the conference bar?

  8. @A in W
    ‘Oh come on Howard,do you really think Clegg could have pulled a speech like
    That off.The man who ended his own conference speech with”let’s go for it”’

    If memory serves Clegg spoke off-the-cuff a couple of years ago: as Cameron also has done!

    @Howard

    or ‘en babbeler’

    I always liked that verb!

  9. ANNE IN WALES

    @”Colin,I am sure that you will have read the diaries of James lees Milne from
    Which it is quite plain the founding principles of the National Trust were all about.”

    Nope.

    I’m just interested in what they do now-which is fantastic.

    Together with RSPB, Woodland Trust & County Wildlife Trusts -( not forgetting the National Parks), they have saved what is left of our countryside & wild places from utter destruction.

  10. Rich,I am the last person to be contemptuous of anyone.My response to
    Anthony was my crude attempt at humour,hence ended with Lol.I am afraid
    That I do not know anything about Llanelli but find it had to believe that
    Labour is hated in Cardff.Tinged Fringe would ask you what your evidence
    For this is.However it is good to see someone else from Wales posting.

  11. Rob Sheffield,we all know that Cameron has delivered off the cuff Conference
    Speeches but I was not aware that Clegg had done so.

  12. I was waiting for the ‘One nation ….under the groove’ line, leading into the funky back beat as Milliband ripped off his trousers to reveal red sequined flares, while Ed Balls jumps in with a 1970’s moustache and half of Pan’s People digging the rhythm.

    Isn’t that what he meant?

  13. Just read Landale.

    He is right about this :-

    ” to many voters, the United Kingdom is made up of four nations, not one.”

    and this :-

    “Slogans minted for conferences often have a habit of dying a slow death.”

    (Have predators & pre-distribution died, or are they just sleeping?)

    and this :-

    “It is easy to argue for one nation – who is going to argue for two? – but it is harder to argue for the tough stuff that any future government will face. . Does one-nation Labourism tell us how long it should take to cut the deficit?”

    These are all perfectly reasonable & sensible points & questions.

    And just before the crack about “geeks” , he says :-

    “Today he gave an outstanding speech, without notes or text, a performance that was assured and confident, engaging and near-faultlessly delivered.

    In the hall, there was an overwhelming sense of relief among the Labour members that they had a leader who could rise to the occasion, and appear, well, a little more prime ministerial than he has done in the past.”

    How on earth anyone can criticise this piece is beyond me.

  14. ALEC

    :-) I think I enjoyed looking at Pan’s People – but can’t remember why, now. :-)

  15. Looking at today’s events and reactions, I’m wondering if there are a few people in Tory HQ having odd doubts about their ‘go for Ed’ strategy. The trouble with telling us that your opponent is useless is that if voters see a different and less bad side, you’ve blown a deal of credibility.

  16. Colin,I like you ,much appreciate the work of the National Trust in preserving
    The heritage of this country.Especially as it was the influence of the NT
    That was one of the main voices that persuaded this government to U turn
    On its misguided policy to sell off large amounts of the woodland of England.

  17. ALEC
    Good Evening to you.

    I agree with you about the leader’s speech.

    The boy becoming the man was quite moving to behold.

  18. COLIN

    Actually five nations. Those who consider themselves to be primarily British, are just as entitled to their identity as any of the other four (or more) nations.

    For the UK, “nation” was an inappropriate term for Miliband to use. He could have used “country” or “state” or “kingdom” or various other terms.

    Clearly using a term which is traditionally Tory was more important to him and his advisers.

  19. @”‘en babbeler’

    The Old World babblers or timaliids are a large family of mostly Old World passerine birds.
    They are rather diverse in size and coloration, but are characterised by soft fluffy plumage.

  20. I was in the hotel bar tonight, watching Man Utd and went for a toilet break, in the loo they had the newspaper front pages, the “i” struck me, as I’m sure it did others in other hotels etc. “Only 1 in 5 see Ed M as prime ministerial”. On the eve of a speech which could help someone set out a vision for our country, which we may benefit from if people rally behind, whatever the message transpired to be, I asked “How’s that helping ?” Still at least I know one when I see one

  21. OLD NAT

    @”Actually five nations. ”

    Oh god-I knew it was a mistake to post about nations after dark :-)

    @”Clearly using a term which is traditionally Tory was more important to him and his advisers.”

    Yes-clearly-I think that’s what it was all about it seems-“We are the Tories now” !

    :-)

  22. If he was reading that off the cuff he wasn’t half flapping his arms about a lot.

  23. He needn’t have bothered, that was obvious.

  24. Margaret Curran said on STV…

    “Ed’s speech was electrifying”

    I’ve seen more electrifying stuff in a 12w bulb.

  25. Colin

    With respect (and I’m not using that ironically!) that wasn’t what I said.

    The “One Nation” terminology is well known to you and me, so it seems reasonable to assume that Milliband and his advisers are even more aware of it.

    Labour can’t win in England (and, therefore, the UK), unless they recapture those voters who don’t shift their positions much, but judge whether Labour or Tory are closest to that position. Minimising the distance between his brand of Labour and moderate Toryism, while presenting opponents as extreme, is a sensible political strategy.

    The only problem is that the language used needs to reflect political sentiment outside England as well, if he wants to maximise his chances.

  26. OLD NAT

    Thanks.

    I wasn’t really being too serious.

    Off to bed now.

    Guid nicht, an joy be wi’ you a’.

  27. Maybe the “lefties” who gave up when Major defeated Socialism and left Blair a free run with new labour, will realise their resposonsibilities, “come home” and deliver the death to Thatcherism they craved in their youth, or maybe a tax cut will once again allow the “brat pack” to prove the futility of their struggle. Ed’s the next generation, he needs a bit of help, the right kind of help, they know who they are! You get what you deserve!

  28. ^ when I was at Uni it was very trendy to be a lefty/socialist. I think I was well in the minority been more conservative leaning, but then again it was in Hull.
    The irony is that many of my friends who were the archetypal firebrand uni socialists seem to have rather changed their view now they have families, want to move up the property ladder, understand aspiration etc.

  29. STV’s “Scotland Tonight” ended with a montage of all Ed’s repetitions of “One Nation”.

  30. RIch O, I agree, put up or shut up, but do it before you die and leave the planet to your darlings, where are they now? shouting at telly?

  31. Sorry Rich O, that’s not what you said, you said they’d changed their values, I guess I’m saying that this is a new and their last chance to reappraise their choices and remember what they struggled for.

  32. I always thought lefties had long hair and played the banjo in the back of VW Camper Vans.

    Or am I thinking of New-aged Liberals? ;)

  33. Milliband on Disraeli – I didn’t know about the 2 bottles of brandy that he consumed while delivering the “One Nation” speech!

    However, Milliband’s strange interpretation of it that “no one felt left out” certainly didn’t apply to the Irish at that time.

    Politicians are almost always really crap when they try to use history.

  34. OLDNAT

    Dreadful stuff. I don’t know who the editor was but hopefully his p45 will be in the post. ;)

  35. I’m getting worried now. I’ve just heard Danny Finkelstein on Newsnight say the very same thing that I’ve been saying for some time; namely Miliband is entirely sensible not to make detailed policy announcements at this stage of the electoral cycle. Up to now, I’d been encouraged to see that the insistent calls for more policy detail from Labour were coming from the Spectator, Daily Telegraph and a motley crew of disinherited Blairites, but now Finkelstein is taking my line, I may have to think again!

    The usually hilarious political panel on Newsnight, Danny Finkelstein, Miranda Green and Deborah Mattinson, were actually quite complimentary about Miliband’s speech this evening, although Finkelstein, predictably, tended to damn with faint praise. Actually, I thought Mattinson, Brown’s former private pollster, summed up the significance of the speech quite succinctly, echoing my thoughts about it being more targeted at the party rather than the wider electorate. She said this: –

    ” The Labour Party and its members will have a little spring in their step tonight…………. Up to now, a lot of them were saying to themselves, “why did we vote for this guy”. I don’t think they’ll be thinking that any more.”

    My guess is that this was Miliband’s primary objective all along. Another piece in the jigsaw; plenty more to put in place though. Job done for this Conference however.

  36. Milliband on education

    Why has this suddenly become “One Nation” as England? – or is a single policy to be applied across all of the UK?

  37. An excellent speech by Miliband, in terms of trying to establish a consistent set of values likely to appeal to the centre ground. Simultaneously courting the centre ground in terms of emphasising one nation values which have always sat far more naturally with Labour than the Conservatives, whilst continuing to distance the party from the discredited neo-liberal economic recipes of New Labour. That could have some resonance if followed through consistently.

  38. @OLDNAT

    “Politicians are almost always really crap when they try to use history.”

    It reminds me slightly of ‘Reflections’. Remember that? :)

  39. The party leaders ‘ speeches matter not one whit because voters arent watching . If they are , the ones with a brain are swithering between a sick bag and curling their toes such is the lack of meaningful content and rehearsed nauseating patronising platitudes and cliches.

    Thus we have 65 % turnouts in UK elections and thousands not even bothering to register and parties pandering to the soon to be minority who do vote !

  40. @ Old Nat

    STV’s “Scotland Tonight” ended with a montage of all Ed’s repetitions of “One Nation”.
    ———–
    Was it to music? Was it funny?
    8-)

  41. Amber

    40+ repetitions of the same phrase can’t be funny!

  42. @CHASGLAS

    Turnout is on the increase. Given that we had a hung parliament last time, there’s probably going to be a better turnout next time. Of course there will always be people who won’t vote, and there will always be people who don’t vote due to being in a safe seat (“What’s the point?”).

    I have always lived in a seat which has delivered a politician I didn’t vote for. I could vote with the likely winner and change that, or I could maintain my inclination to independent thought and action.

    I just wish everyone else would too.

  43. STATGEEK

    “Reflections”? Nope. If from a politician of any party (with the exception of John MacIntosh), I’dpresume it’s crap.

  44. According to Tim Montgomerie, lots of Tories were a bit panic’d immediately after Ed’s speech but a few hours later they’d settled back into their comfort zone based on: ” speeches matter not one whit because voters arent watching” & similar.

    I ‘missed’ Baroness Warsi; she used to be first to the barricades after every major Labour speech give it a rousing thumbs down. Grant Schapps (Two-Tags) & his ‘Labour isn’t Learning schtick simply could not compare with Warsi in full, indignant, flow. :-)

  45. You can’t possibly say turnout wiil increase because of a coaltion .

    GE turnout is falling as is voter registration .

    Our votes don’t matter unless we live in marginal seats

  46. I thought there were some rules for this website.

    Am I wrong Anthony?

    (apologies if this post appears twice)

  47. Labour have always had to eschew the One Nation thing in the past – too close to National Socialism! I guess being able to claim the One Nation tagline is one of the benefits of having the child of holocaust survivors as your leader.
    8-)

  48. @Chasglaz

    “You can’t possibly say turnout wiil increase because of a coaltion .”

    I didn’t. I said it may increase because of a hung parliament.

  49. @OLDNAT

    ‘Relections’ was a Grampian TV program, usually on for 5 mins after the news at ten on ITV. Religeous thought for the day, if you like. It occurred to me that politicians also like to take unusual examples to try to introduce an audience to a concept.

    I see the BBC are reporting the economy grew in the 3rd quarter:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19795642

    Good for all, or just for the Con VI?

  50. Amber

    “too close to National Socialism”

    Pity that the likes of Davidson didn’t eschew that phraseology, though.

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