This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. Yesterday had a thirteen point lead, but today’s is very much back into the normal range. There is no sign of any bounce for the Liberal Democrats from their conference, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect one yet – any impact normally peaks after the leader’s speech. Interestingly enough where there is some whiff of a conference boost is UKIP, who YouGov have shown at 9% for two days in a row. Its not significantly above the seven to eight that YouGov normally record for UKIP so could easily be normal sample variation, but YouGov haven’t shown them that high for a good six weeks.

Tomorrow and Sunday’s polls will show any impact from the Lib Dem conference, although as always in conference season the peaks of troughs of each party as their conferences come and go isn’t really that important – it is whether things are any different once these short term publicity effects fade.


293 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 41, LD 9, UKIP 9”

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  1. For those interested, there’s a good piece of analysis of VI about LD support and views about VC and NC in the NorthernBlog at:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/sep/28/liberaldemocrats-liberal-democrat-conference-2012

  2. Could a recovery in Lib Dem VI hurt the Tories and not Labour?

    I was just thinking that if right of centre voters who would think about voting Lib Dem liked what Nick Clegg said in his speech, they may give a VI of Lib Dem. The Lib Dem VI then goes up and Tories goes down. While the Labour VI remains unaffected, as left of centre voters have already moved towards Labour.

    Does this make sense ?

  3. @tingedfringe – “For LibDem vs Con seats, it’s Con 39 (-2), Lab 19 (+6), Lib 31 (-9).”

    That was one of the interesting findings in Lord Ashcroft’s poll of marginal Conserative seats (Sept 2011).

    The figures you quote are *after* respondents in Lib Dem target seats had been asked for their voting intention:

    Con 41%, Lab 26%, LD 18%.

    Then respondents were asked to think about their particular constituencies, the parties and candidates who are likely to stand there… that is when the Con 39%, Lab 18%, LD 31% figures emerge.

    So the actual VI is Con n/c, Lab +13%, LD -22%

    That is dangerously close to “LD vote in collapse”, and if Labour decide to campaign on that basis there is a good chance they can turn Con/LD marginals into Con/Lab marginals. That could be a risky strategy, it depends on how tight the national race is at the time.

    It comes down to a calculation about how best to compete against a Tory candidate, carry on squeezing the Lab vote (Tories probably win), or try squeezing the LD vote for a change and see what happens.

    There will be plenty of little bar charts in campaign leaflets… In my own ward, for example, it is Lab/Con/LD in that order, but that doesn’t stop LDs showing Lab and LD almost neck and neck saying “Conservatives are switching to Lib Dem, only Lib Dems can win this seat!”

    If there is a fairly reputable poll in the local paper during the closing stages of an election though, that can change things.

  4. *Lab 19%*, not 18%

  5. @Ozwald

    “Blues back in the lead among over 60s.
    Weird figures for Scotland. The usual huge Lab lead over Cons has disappeared and now its almost level pegging.”

    I noticed that. The ‘Scotland Votes’ Westminster page suggests that these numbers would return MPs as follows:

    Lab: 32 (-9)
    Con: 17 (+16)
    SNP: 6 (NC)
    Lib: 4 (-7)

    I can’t see it somehow.

  6. @Statgeek
    “I can’t see it somehow.”

    Cheers. Agreed. When I can find the time I will rebuild my rolling averages spreadsheet. The daily YG roller coaster gives me a ‘fix’,
    but what would we do if daily polls stop? But it can feel like a white-knuckle ride some days! Some of the figures seem odd lately and I am not convinced that it is all sampling variations.

  7. Ozwald
    “…I am not convinced that it is all sampling variations”

    So, what do you think is the cause?

  8. NICKP

    I don’t quite see the case for a Labour voter in Reigate giving support to the LibDem on a tactical basis. Firstly, it is a very safe Tory seat and,secondly, it is a seat where Labour has quite often come second ahead of the LibDems! A third reason ,of course, might be that there is little point in casting an anti – Tory tactical vote for a party so willing to prop the Tories up.

  9. Aaargh! I was afraid somebody would put me on the spot! lol.
    And I haven’t had enough coffee yet to get my brain into gear.
    I can’t think of anything other than ‘outlier of outliers’ but did wonder if YG have been experimenting in some way lately and haven’t quite got their system fully krypton-tuned yet?

    The YG results for 25-26th gave a list of newspaper readership and I thought this was heavily skewed towards Mail/Express and Mirror/Sun numbers were low. Perhaps this is nothing new though? Not sure.

    I do wonder about the ‘disenfranchised’ folk, those who never buy a newspaper and have no landline and no internet access either. How do pollsters connect with them? In the longer run will the influence of newspapers decline as more people get their news online, as I do?

  10. Lots of bad news coming out of the Eurozone again.

    Spain in the crosshairs now, and once again we have commentators across the world showing surprise that ‘the deal to end all deals’ has unraveled. How surprising.

    It appears that the northern states have reneged on a key part of the deal, that the bail out of Spanish banks would bypass the sovereign debt and enable a collective bank recapitalisation without implications for Spanish sovereign debt status. There seems to be fury in Spain over this, as Germany and Holland have now imposed conditions on the Spanish state as part of the deal – not what the markets took to understand at the time.

    Beneath all this though, is the realisation that whatever happens, the Spanish economy is ruptured. No amount of bail outs will be relevant if growth doesn’t happen, and the conditions attached to bailouts just makes recession longer.

  11. @Corkscrew

    “Remarkable attack on Cameron’s tory party by Janet Daily of The Telegraph (no less) on This Week last night”

    I saw her little “take on the week” piece, and her interview/discussion with Andrew Neil, Michael Portillo and Jacqui Smith afterwards, and I thought it was particularly incoherent, even by her sorry standards. Under some heavy fire from Portillo and Neil, she wilted noticeably and ended up waffling like the corny old waffler she is. Sounds like a few leading Tory figures had been beastly to her in the past and she was venting some spleen. She named no names and it was essentially just a rant about how rude and disrespectful most of the Cameroonians were to anybody who disagreed with them. She was using the recent Mitchell case as a basis for her more general accusation.

    Seems like another illustration of why those on the right in politics tend to deserve each other! lol

  12. @crossbat11

    As do those on the left!!!

  13. graham

    Don’t worry, I’ll be voting Lab.

  14. There was a theory through the last Con governments that the reasons the Cons were in power was the split left vote, with the implication that the LibDems were a left wing party.

    Now no one s in any doubt that the LibDems are NOT left wing – so the LibDem voter that considers themself on the left of politics will go back to Labour.

    Lab->Lib tactical votes won’t happen so the Libs will lose some seats they picked up from the Tories.

    So from that POV Labour are in a good position, Liberals very bad.

    Also – Is anyone excited about seeing Ed Milliband again and hearing what he has to say? What has he been doing all summer?

  15. @Crossbat11 – Daily, this week, last night? I’m lost…..

    More pertinent however, is the substance of Daley’s comments. The general tone has been backed up by numerous other witnesses and Tory party colleagues, and the insular and sometimes downright rude manner in which Cameron and his circle deal with people who aren’t first order friends is well known.

    This extends back to his days before politics, when he had a reputation among business journalists of being offhand and extremely rude if you wrote anything he didn’t like. His lack of friends among Tory backbenchers is well known, largely through his unwillingness to show a more open and respectful style.

    Ultimately this will be his downfall – and indeed, it is already showing through, with a distinct lack of basic loyalty to the man being one evident symptom within the Tory ranks.

    You reap what you sow, as the saying goes.

  16. It’ll be funny if what brings down Cameron is his personal unpopularity at Westminster while he retains a level of popularity amongst voters.

  17. @RAF

    Yes, I think the TV interview in the USA is the first sign that Cameron is looking for a career after being PM.

    If the polls still look bad for the Tories in the lead up to the next general election then I think that he will quit rather than risk losing.

    I think it is only a matter time before Boris takes over from Cameron.

  18. NICKP,
    ‘Don’t worry, I’ll be voting Lab.’

    I will not be voting Labour here in Norwich North – no way I can support a candidate selected from an All Woman Shortlist.. I know it will help Chloe Smith’s bid for re-election – but so be it!

  19. @NickP

    “Don’t worry, I’ll be voting Lab.”

    You sure? You’ve definitely considered all the options? :P

  20. “I think it is only a matter time before Boris takes over from Cameron.”

    I don’t know about that, but I’d be amazed if Cameron quit before the next election barring some new scandal.

  21. statgeek

    The options for me were tactical antiTory vote for LD or just vote Labour which is my preferred party.

    I take the view that a LD vote is nearly the same as a tory vote at present, so I will vote Labour and barring an enormous upset, waste my vote!

  22. @nickp

    I think Cameron will stick around until the next general election but won’t stand again if the polls still look bad for the Tories.

  23. The result of the Corby bye-election will resonate through the two main parties. A big win for Lab will provoke further problems for DC. A poor win for Lab will probably benefit DC and place EM under further scrutiny.

    As I’ve said it before, I’ll be surprised if DC is still PM and leader of the Cons in May 2013.

  24. @ Oswald

    See the Con’s Scottish VI (red are outliers, according to my calcs).

    http://i49.tinypic.com/bhxez8.png

  25. @Crossbat

    I agree with your analysis she seemed pretty bitter. Not being a Telegraph reader I have never heard of her.

    It does however highlight real problem for Cameron that he is so unpopular with many on the right, but the pressure on him is now to take his party further right.

  26. @statgeek
    Many thanks, very interesting. I will keep a beady eye on Scottish figures in future. Have to pop out now, on babysitting duty!

  27. ‘I don’t know about that, but I’d be amazed if Cameron quit before the next election barring some new scandal.’

    I agree it is unlikely, but if he knows he is going to lose and there is a big scandal (not too unlikely given the track record and upcoming trials) and thus for the chop anyway, why not resign before the election and make sure Boris is stuffed?

  28. I’m not sure that the libdem deserters will all vote like sheep for labour, if they were sheep like they would have never voted libdem in the first place, but I’m not an insane optimist that believes that most of the ex dems will return to the fold, in the same way that I don’t believe in Santa. I still think a large number will vote green and suspect that quite a few activists will help the green campaign, even more will just sit on their hands and not vote when faced with a choise between 3 right-wing iliberal parties. At this moment in time I’m leaning most to withholding my vote, Oldnat’s news on the shift to the right by Scottish labour is very worrying.

  29. @SoCalLiberal – “Miracle Mile”

    I’m in danger of getting an admonishment from Martyn for digression here, but the first thing that comes into my mind is:

    I walked alone down the Miracle Mile;
    I met my baby by the shrine of the martyr
    She stole my heart with her Cajun smile…

    Steely Dan are talking about New Orleans here. Those French Acadians are speaking a romance language, so a maybe for “Latino” (options include No. 8 – “Yes. Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin” – then write beneath it either “Louisiana Creole” or “Cajun.”. Or No – write in under Section 9 “other”).

    Secondly, I’m glad I found this…

    “A W Ross [developer of the 1920s farm track known as Western Avenue] ordered that all building facades along Wilshire be engineered so as to be best seen through a windshield. This meant larger, bolder, simpler signage; longer buildings in a larger scale; architectural ornament and massing perceptible at 30 mph (50 km/h) instead of at walking speed. These simplified building forms were driven by practical requirements but contributed to the stylistic language of Art Deco and Streamline Moderne. Ross had invented the car-oriented urban form… this stretch of Wilshire was named Miracle Mile.”

    That said, it’s a privilege to read your essay on redistricting, and I’m looking forward to your analysis when the dust settles after November 6th. It’s under way already (Iowa – vote early September 27):

    h
    ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3jDk80NDwU

    Indian National Congress is a party with an interesting history, I didn’t realise that it was founded by members of the Theosophical Society.
    The Gandhian concept of Sarvodaya (upliftment of all sections of the society) is still important, but I note that in common with other left of centre parties since the 1990s there has been an inevitable shift towards adopting market policies: ” …a cautious approach in proceeding with liberalization to ensure that the weaker sections are not affected too hard by the process.”

  30. @richard in norway – “Oldnat’s news on the shift to the right by Scottish labour…”

    Old Nat is now your shepherd? Old Nat quoted partial interpretations and extrapolations based on rhetorical questions posed by Johan Lamont. I’m in favour of universalism as a broad principle, but we’ll have to wait and see where the discussion goes, and if there are any specific policies before we can accept the “shift to the right” spin.

  31. @ Billy Bob (and others who are interested in our election)

    This is a quote I just saw on a Republican acquaintance’s Facebook wall this morning. I was shocked because he’s a real conservative. I knew him back in college and he was always a big defender of Bush and he’s something a quiet, religious Christian type (though not a zealot).

    “I won’t vote for Romney because I don’t want a multi-millionaire pretending to care about my interests when I’m struggling to pay back $120k in student debt and working my tail off. Could he understand e plight of millions of Americans? Could he understand what it means for families out there to barely be able to make it? I don’t think so. Besides, he campaign is 90% attacks and 10% solution. Where’s the innovation?”

    My jaw nearly dropepd to the floor when I read that. I’m not even going to say anything (out of fear he might change his mind).

  32. @mikems

    Cameron will want to quit at the top before he is pushed (either by his own party or at a general election – which seems highly likely) and then he will be able to do a Blair and swan about around the world earning a fortune and pretending that he still has some power.

    Politically, there was nothing to gain from going on the Letterman show, so it seems likely that he was more so doing it to raise his profile planning for his future after politics.

  33. Recently I have been mulling over the role of Labour’s relative disciplined unity in maintaining a consistent lead in the polls. In the early 80’s and late 90’s early 00’s Her Majesty’s loyal opposition penchant for internal fighting helped hand the governments of the day landslide victories at the polls. I’d be interested to read other people thoughts on this.

    On tactical voting – for the first time in my life as a voter I find myself living in a constituency with a massive Tory majority and no chance of Labour ever winning. I know many Labour orientated people in the area who tactically voted LD last time who definitely won’t next time round. As a loyal apparatchik I will always vote for the People’s Party.

  34. “I’m not sure that the libdem deserters will all vote like sheep for labour,”

    I think that a lot of the Lib Dem voters were actually Labour voters using tactical voting. Those people will now probably just vote for Labour (as they will now see a vote for the Lib Dems as a vote for the Tories).

  35. Billy bob

    The whole history of nu labour has been a constant lurch to the right, have they changed now? Johan’s speech would suggest that they haven’t. Seems we will not be offered an alternative to the neoliberal consensus at the next election. I fear it will be 2020 before the politicans wake up to the fact that neoliberalism doesn’t work

  36. Cameron’s relationship with his party is odd. He cannot control his backbenchers effectively and they have little loyalty to him, it seems.

    But he has been at the helm, unchallenged, for a long time now. So different to the old party where the leader was tossed aside regularly.

    If he goes before the election test or after an election loss he may throw the party back into the sort of leadership by (actual and attempted) coup de parti we became used to after Thatcher’s resignation.

    It’s something of a poisoned chalice, being leader of the tory party, a bit like being Chelsea or England manager.

  37. “The result of the Corby bye-election will resonate through the two main parties”

    One thing about by-elections I have never understood is why turnout is so poor. You would have thought with the parties having nothing better to do and putting a lot of work into them with presumably a 100% canvass and plenty of helpers to drag voters to the polls that the turnout would be much higher. Same applies to even more of an extent in local council by-elections.

  38. BILL PATRICK
    The lowest fruit in the orchard and the most ready for plucking is overseas aid, for which the 0.7% of GDP has long be known to a meaningless shibboleth, and the international agencies the greatest beneficiaries. But does any party have the courage or the savvy to cut and replace it with a system better geared towards non-governmental aid, fair trade and R&D?

  39. @SQUEEEZEDMIDDLE REDRICH

    l live in a Tory LD marginal with a strong Labour presence (22% on the council) but a poor parliamentary vote at the last election Could be interesting ,especially if Labour can use the LD vote in frrefall/meltdown line. FPTP is a very crude weapon indeed but has a beautiful simplicity if you are a supporter of one of the two main parties

  40. BILLY BOB / RiN

    “we’ll have to wait and see where the discussion goes”

    http://reidfoundation.org/2012/09/weve-had-the-debate-universalism-won/

    “We’ve had the debate: universalism won”.

  41. I can’t see Cameron going before the next election. I don’t think there has been any other example of a first term PM resigning.

    I would imagine (as many of us would) that he would see being PM as the ultimate achievement and not want to give it up readily. He will be hoping all the way through that the economy will pick up and he will also, as many have pointed out on here, hope that the opposition lead will fall as it gets nearer to an election.

    Although the Tory press and many of his MPs may not like him it doesn’t feel like there is enough there to force him out.

    The more likely to go would be Clegg 6-12 months before the election once he feels he has done as much as he can do and can see that ‘for the good of the party’ a new face might save them some seats.

  42. richard in norway @ Billy bob

    “The whole history of nu labour has been a constant lurch to the right, have they changed now? ”

    Not a constant lurch, more a clandestine creep. If true, this is an upfront lurch and commendable for its unexpected honesty even if that’s all that’s good about it.

    JL couldn’t be an SNP mole, could she or more likely Labour for independence? It won’tbe her policy anyway will it.

  43. Aid is not a meaningless shibboleth, it is part of our law.

    We never reached 0.7 percent anyhow.

    Aid is being attacked by the same people who ran it badly, linked it to NGOs and govt contracts and undermined the principle we signed up to as a country.

    The usual self-interested two-step, in fact.

  44. JOHN B DICK

    She does, however, have support – apart from the Daily Record!

    http://www.welshconservatives.com/news/lamont-right-and-must-convince-welsh-labour

  45. OldNat,

    There is plenty of expenditure that SHOULD be cut, but that doesn’t qualify as “low-hanging fruit”, because its politically costly to cut.

  46. BILL PATRICK

    True.

  47. MICKEMS
    I wasn’t attacking aid, but the 0.7% of GDP commitment. The UN agencies frugally staffed, and international development finance institutions making right investments in small farmer agriculture and livelihoods diversification, NGOs a poor instrument of grassroots development, sufficient and well directed research resources provided for agriculture and water resource development, adequate protection provided to indigenous peoples in river basins affected by hydropower? In many respects the score is pretty good, but it could be done vastly better, without the UN feather bedding, and at a fraction of the cost.

  48. SqueezedMiddle

    I don’t think Cameron going on Letterman was anything other than more evidence of the way a certain sector of the English Establishment is perpetually starry-eyed over the US. Going on any US show should have got him credit among these types even though less than 1% of Americans watch it (2.2 million). In the end of course he managed to make a mess of even the gentlest of the late night shows.

    SoCal rather kindly suggested he might be trying to gain support for Obama among Toryish ex-Brits, but even if such people exist, if they haven’t been convinced by four years of being nagged by Andrew Sullivan, they never will. And do I vaguely remember some intervention by Cameron on behalf of McCain in 2008 that didn’t go well?

    This small town type worship of the US and its politics by the Westminster Bubble has always bemused me – especially as many of those involved seem to have little grasp or knowledge of the country outside the Beltway or how the complex system of checks and balances operates. But it’s a completely cross-Party matter from pretty-far left to pretty-far right. And they all have West Wing box sets.

    I’ve always put it down to being Anglo monoglots (apparently some of them can’t even handle pig Latin), but there’s no corresponding interest in say Canadian or Indian politics. With Mrs Thatcher’s generation you could put it down to the glamour of wartime American, but I doubt anyone gave this lot silk stockings.

    I begin to suspect that it’s because the US has developed a multi-billion dollar politics industry with all its lucrative jobs and perks. There’s certainly been a move in that direction here – even as traditional Party structures wither away and membership collapses.

  49. Good Afternoon All.

    I think Dave Cameron will stay unti 2015 at least, that Nick Clegg will go to Europe in 2014 and that Ed will lose the GE in 2015, and that Tony Blair will become leader, of the Labour Party, probably, in 2015

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