The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out and has topline figures of CON 31%(-3), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 14%(-1), Others 14%. In the last couple of years ICM have tended to show smaller Labour leads than many other polling companies for methological reasons, so while ten point leads for Labour have been two-a-penny these last six months, for ICM it is a very large lead, the biggest they’ve shown since 2003. The poll also has UKIP at 6% – a high figure for a telephone pollster.

There is also a new TNS BMRB poll out with topline figures of CON 28%(-3), LAB 44%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), Others 19%(+2) (including UKIP at 7% and the Greens at 5%). While TNS do tend to show some of the largest leads anyway, the sixteen point Labour lead is the largest any company has shown this Parliament. Suffice to say, I think we can write off the sharp narrowing of the lead in the weekend ComRes poll as an outlier!

From here on in we are into conference season polling. In some past years this has produced a rollercoaster effect, with each party enjoying a boost in the polls in the immediate aftermath of their conference and their leader’s conference address. In other years it has had hardly any effect… we shall have to see which sort of conference season 2012 is.


313 Responses to “New ICM and TNS-BMRB polls”

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  1. @ COLIN

    Thank you also!

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  2. @Divid
    “The message was that only the Lib Dems combine economic competence with a commitment to building a fair, free and open society.”
    maybe the message people are getting is that “the Lib Dems combine economic incompetence with a commitment to building an unfair, fettered and closed society.”

    I say this because increasingly it is becoming apparent that this gov is very right of center, and is delivering radically different results than put forward by the Liberal Democratic socially Liberal base of the LD Party. Most notably this would be on the economic argument that underpins the Gov being a massive U turn from the pre election position, Labour can say we are in the miss we arwe in becouse of the Liberal democrats “pulling the rug out from under the economy”. Also there is footage about of Nick Clegg saying all these cuts would be “wrong”.
    The reason that Nick clegg may remain as leader might be that it at least then the disator of the 2015 election, not getting HOL reform, double dip recession, tuition fees, NHS sell out can be put on his shoulders and that then at least the local base of the Libdem party will survive.
    Labour are clearly in a strong position for the next election and the likelihood is that they will get an overall majority (imho)

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  3. @ TheGreeny

    I am a tactical Lib Dem voter. I would currently vote Labour, but they are not in the running. In local and European elections, I vote independent or Labour. In a general election, I would still vote Lib Dem, unless the Tories put up a brilliant candidate.

    I don’t like the Tories generally for many reasons, but would actually contemplate voting for a Tory candidate of a high calibre, with an independent mind. The trouble is the Tories never select anyone I would vote for. Their last candidate was some chap who was born into money and ran the family business. I had actually met him on a couple of occasions and he was not someone I would vote for. A arrogant twit.

    Whether I am a typical voter I don’t know. Both my parents were floating voters, who had voted for all of the main parties at some point, so I must follow in their footsteps.

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  4. Lab slogan at next GE: “Vote LD, get Tory government”?

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  5. tingedfringe

    Anyone know where I can find the tracker for who is to blame for local service cuts?

    I can never remember either. It’s actually under “The Economy” (at the start):

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/at2ww6tiuz/YG-Archives-%20Trackers-%20economy-180912.pdf#page=1

    Today’s figures aren’t a record in blaming the government rather than local councils, but they are at the top end that way.

    Anthony

    I assume that the usual person who did the Archive updates has left/been promoted/is ill/is increasing world population, because it’s been a mess for the last few weeks with inconsistent titles and classifications. A lot of the daily polls are being also classified as Trackers.

    Given the number of things that appear on the Archive in a week (job ads even), it makes it more difficult to find things. A clean-up would be nice.

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  6. Why not just destroy all the gilts/bonds they’ve bought with funny money annd destroy a lump of debt with them?

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  7. The Greeny/MIke N,
    I am with Alec on this one and think many Labour sympathising ABTs in con/ld marginals will vote LD at the GE. The idea of votes going from LD to Lab to let the con imo will only apply in a few seats.
    Anecdotes are not good as we know but my sister (more left than me in many ways) lives in Tim Farron’s seat and will vote LD to keep out the con, she remembers that her vote helped get rid of Tim Collins who even many Tories disliked; local Lab people kind of encouraged it off the record.

    I guess there will be some seats where lab is a close third or have a strong local government presence and so will want as many Lab votes as possible so will campaign harder; also, perhaps certain LDs will get less ‘Lab’ support than Farron.

    Our Scotttish posters seem to agree the LDs will hold 2 may be 3 only but in E&W I expect them to hold 75% of their seats where the cons are the main challenger but less than half where Lab are.

    Re latest poll any one with access pls tell me the actual numbers, there are a lot of others even after UKIP, Greens maybe?

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  8. Because that WOULD BE “printing money”.

    That would bypass Government Debt completely & would consist of BoE gives Nu Cash to Banks ,-Banks give it Government.

    THis is Zimbabwe style money printing-ie create new money & use it to pay state payroll & other purchases.

    It allows any government to spend money without constraint, regardless of the outcome for citizens.

    It creates massive inflation as more money circulates in an economy which is producing no more -or even less-goods & services.

    THe Asset Purchase Programme that is QE WILL remove the additional liquidity at some point-either :-

    a) When BoE sells it’s Gilts back into the market & withdraws the NuCash from circulation.
    or
    b) When BoE hold their Gilts to maturity-the Treasury repay BoE -and need to go back into the market for replacement funds.

    The difference is merely one of timing-but Government Debt continues to exist throughout.

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  9. Today’s YouGov poll seems to confirm that the Conservatives are really losing it among the over-60s – Labour is leading 37% to 33%.

    The reason the headline VI lead is down slightly is because of our old friends Da Yoof, where the lead is only 5 points (the underlying Labour lead is probably around 20). Although YouGov seems to have been making an effort over the last few polls to increase the sub-sample size, it’s still only about half what it should be and this mean every day seems to be odd in some way.

    The 5% for UKIP looks high for this group and the 2% for Greens low – but then the percentages are only based on the responses of about 73 people. However the weighting means that the choices of each under-25 respondent has perhaps three times the power to affect VI of those in other age groups.

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  10. @David
    FANTASY
    “The message was that only the Lib Dems combine economic competence with a commitment to building a fair, free and open society.”
    —————————-
    REALITY
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/27/uk-gdp-economy-data-second-quarter

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  11. Colin

    I’m one of those saying “oh yeah, when?!” I was saying when QE was 250 billion and I’m still saying it when is 400+ billion. There is as far as I can see no possibility that QE will ever be reversed, Japan has been doing QE for more than a decade and last week embarked on QE8. And there is no end in sight

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  12. R HUckle
    @” We need to change the balance of the economy, so we earn our way, through producing the goods/services that the rest of the world want to buy”
    Given that governments do not make or sell things which of the enabling strategies of the two main parties do you buy into?

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  13. @ John Pilgrim

    Labour, as I think they would work more with business and would put money in to facilitate. e.g tax incentives for investment in the UK.

    The Tories believe in getting out of the way of business and leaving them to it. Labour in my opinion showed that they could work with business when they were in office and so far with the coalition I have not seen the same level of effort.

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