The full details of the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here. Topline figures are CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 8% – so a nine point lead and pretty much in line with YouGov’s recent polls (the seven point lead some people were tweeting last night comes from hypothetical match ups, of which we’ll come to later).

The regular leaders approval ratings stand at minus 21 for Cameron, minus 29 for Miliband and minus 63 for Clegg, this is Clegg’s worst score so far (although only marginally down from minus 61 last week, which itself was a record low).

As I mentioned, YouGov asked several hypothetical voting intention questions. I should start with the normal caveats about these type of questions – they are quite low information, so while they can give us a steer on whether politicians who are very well known, respondents don’t know what policies those politicians would actually put in place if they were leader, what their priorities would be, how the media would react to them as leader and so on.

If the leaders remain as they are now at the next election (which YouGov ask as a control question) people’s voting intentions would be CON 34, LAB 41, LDEM 9 (when asked this way it consistently shows a slightly smaller Labour lead than usual – probably the effect of mentioning Ed Miliband in the question).

If the Liberal Democrats replaced Nick Clegg with Vince Cable they would increase their vote by a third, taking support from Labour – CON 34(nc), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 12%(+3). If the Conservatives replaced David Cameron with Boris Johnson they would increase their support by four percentage points, wiping out Labour’s lead – CON 38%(+4), LAB 38%(-3), LDEM 9%(nc). And if you combine both changes and the leaders at the next election were Boris, Ed and Vince, voting intentions become – CON 39%(+5), LAB 35%(-6), LDEM 11%(+2): a Conservative lead. As I said, extremely hypothetical and I expect many people are projecting onto Boris and Vince whatever they would like their ideallised Tory or Lib Dem leader to do.

On the Liberal Democrats and the coalition, with the benefit of hindsight 34% of people think entering the coalition was the right thing for the Liberal Democrats to do, compared to 48% who think it was the wrong decision. A majority (52%) think the decision to go into coalition has turned out to be bad for Britain. Asked what they would like to happen in the future, 30% would prefer to see a Labour/Lib Dem coalition, 26% a minority Conservative government, 19% for the coalition to continue. More interesting are the breakdowns amongst party supporters – slightly more Tory supporters would prefer a minority government (49%) than the present coalition (44%), amongst remaining Lib Dem supporters only 38% support the coalition, 26% would prefer a coalition with Labour, 16% would prefer a minority Conservative government. A hefty majority (63%) of Labour supporters would naturally prefer a Lab-LD coalition.

Turning to Nick Clegg himself, he is seen as indecisive by 66% (decisive 14%), untrustworthy by 58% (trustworthy 24%), weak 75% (strong 11%)… but is still seen as likeable by 42% (dislikeable by 38%). Attitudes to the apology are mixed – while people say it had made Clegg look weaker (by 41% to 21%), they are evenly split on whether they feel more positive or negative about him as a result of it – 16% of people say it has made them more positive about Clegg, 17% more negative. They are also quite evenly split on whether the apology was genuine – 35% think it was, 40% think it was not.

Better results for Clegg are that people do at least think he apologised for the right thing – 47% think his mistake was to make a promise he couldn’t keep, compared to 31% think the bigger mistake was to back the policy. 7% think he needed have apologised for either.

Moving on to policing, 64% would oppose the routine arming of police officers, with only 24% in support. A majority (57%) would support the death penalty for the murder of a police officer. There are also majorities in support of the death penalty for terrorist murders, multiple murders and the murder of a child but people were narrowly opposed to the death penalty for all murders, by 42% to 38%. Apart from a slight increase in support for the death penalty for the murder of a police officer, these are pretty much unchanged since the last time YouGov asked.

The figures from the Survation poll last night have also shown up, topline figures there are CON 29%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%.


156 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 43, LD 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. @ Colin

    Actually-just watched NC respond to a ” why have you been so right wing in public finances policy) question.

    It was a blistering put down & simple explanation of some facts ( including the operation of fiscal & time related stabilisers ) -I wished it had been DC saying it actually -maybe he will !
    ———————–
    I too hope that Cameron will indulge in ‘blistering put-downs’ of his own activist base during the Tory conference by explaining that the UK essentially has a socialist economy & there are no plans to change that; if I thought he would I might even attend the Tory conference myself. :evil:

  2. Sorry for asking, but what do you mean by “bavarianisation”? I’ve googled for this and the top two results come from the UKPR comments section, and nowhere had a clear explanation about it

  3. “fiscal & time related stabilisers”

    Such gadgets are not much use if the wheels have already dropped off your budgetary bike
    :-)

  4. AMBER

    Yeah yeah-but by 2015:-

    The economy will be growing.

    Unemployment will still be falling.

    Business confidence will be improving.

    Inflation will be falling.

    The deficit will have resumed it’s fall ( having stalled in the current FY)

    Conversely , Total Government Debt will still be rising-perhaps as % of GDP too.

    So Cons will ask-who best to keep this momentum going , and ensure that DEBT ( & with it Debt servicing costs-which by then will be very significant) does not get out of control ?

    That is the question Labour will need to answer. No one will be interested in how it might have looked in the past.

    ……and there are other policy areas & records to be compared, as well as the economy :-)

  5. OZWALD

    @”Such gadgets are not much use if the wheels have already dropped off your budgetary bike”

    They aren’t “gadgets”. !
    They are absolutely vital if you want to maintain some semblance of social cohesion during the effort to get rid of Labour’s £158 BN PA Deficit.

    IMF urged GO to use them-and he has.

    NC drew a nice parallel with USA-where Obama has to legislate for welfare related stabilisers. They happen automatically here, unless the Government alters them.

    And whilst GO has conceded ( & no doubt will do so again) more time to implement fiscal tightening-the USA is still facing the so-called Fiscal Cliff of tax reduction reversals at the end of this year-with no political consensus on how to deal with it.

  6. AW

    Thanks for updating the moving average.
    We seem to have no Opinium Poll on there(and two Survation)

    was the field work for Opinium too late?

    Thanks

  7. Would we normally expect a popularity ‘bounce’ for parties at their conferences?

  8. Andyo – haven’t been able to find fieldwork dates for Opinium yet

  9. independantchris1 – some years there is, some years there isn’t. In 2009 there was an obvious boost for each party during their conference. In 2011 there wasn’t really. Perhaps people are paying less attention when its not the run up to an election.

  10. @AW

    Thanks

    I see having the two Survation Polls is correct. Very close together, but different papers.

  11. @Amber Star – “Martyn & I were the only two who said the eurozone was certain to survive”

    I very obviously don’t have any economic credentials, but I did question what I saw as a conventional wisdom emerging in the UK that the Euro was irrevocably doomed.

    Again, knowing nothing about economics, and listening to the pundits laugh every time EU officials and politicians announced measures which did not solve the crisis at a stroke, the only way I could make sense of the strategy was to see Merkel et al as a kind of modern Kutusov, who kept delaying, manoeuvring, suffering inconclusive defeats, withdrawing in the face of Napoleon’s advance… until the inevitable happened.

    h
    ttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/fear-and-loathing-as-the-hedge-funds-take-on-the-euro-1915776.html?origin=internalSearch

  12. @”the eurozone was certain to survive””

    But are it’s people?-we have no idea how bad it is:-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19682049

    Those who chant the easy mantra-“let’s build stuff ” should be forced to read the story of “building stuff” in Spain & RoI.

  13. Alec:

    “wafers”

    I don’t know. was that a religious joke?

    Still don’t understand how an updated 10% lead equals the polls “tightening” but I suppose it must do…. somehow.

  14. @ Colin

    [1] So Cons will ask-who best to keep this momentum going , and ensure that DEBT ( & with it Debt servicing costs-which by then will be very significant) does not get out of control ?

    [2] That is the question Labour will need to answer. No one will be interested in how it might have looked in the past.

    [3] ……and there are other policy areas & records to be compared, as well as the economy
    —————————-
    [1] So Labour & ex-LibDems will ask, how has austerity affected the majority of the population? Has the deficit reduction benefited the few at the expense of the many?

    [2] That is the question Labour will need to [ask &] answer. No one will be interested in how it might have looked in the past.

    [3] ……and there are other policy areas & records to be compared, as well as the economy; & a big part of that will be: How has employment fared in the wider sense? Are jobs more secure? Are wages rising again, or still being eroded by inflation? Have the employment prospects of women & young people improved?
    How have public services fared? Is the NHS better or worse? Is crime rising or falling? Are there more or less people homeless or inadequately housed because of housing policy? etc.
    And are there any signs that general improvements in the economy are being shared amongst the population?
    Labour do best when the economy is showing green shoots but the public feel they aren’t the ones who’ll benefit from it.

    You begin by saying: Cons will ask… I venture to suggest there are more Labour & ex-LibDems than there are Cons – but that is something which we could debate all day!
    8-)

  15. Colin

    Those who chant the easy mantra-”let’s build stuff ” should be forced to read the story of “building stuff” in Spain & RoI.

    Well there is a slight difference between building houses for speculation and building them because people need them to live in (yes, who knew?). Given that the belief of Mrs Thatcher and her mini-me successors that the market would provide was proved false in this case (unless houses in a different country count), it might be time to try a different tactic.

    I do appreciate that the English propertied classes would rather have everyone else in the country live in sewers for ten generations than have their house prices drop by a penny. But maybe the well-off have to make the occasional sacrifice for the common good rather than the poor for once.

  16. @ Billy Bob

    I very obviously don’t have any economic credentials, but I did question what I saw as a conventional wisdom emerging in the UK that the Euro was irrevocably doomed.
    ———————
    Indeed you did question it, in your considered & measured way. :-)

    I’ll rephrase: Martyn & I were the only ones who were absolutely adamant, that based on a combination of economics, politics & the self-preservation instincts of the wealthy & powerful (nations, corporations & individuals), the eurozone would not be allowed to fragment or collapse.

  17. Roger:

    That’s all very well but I don’t want the less well off plebs living in a sewer near to me. It would play havoc with the price of my mansion.

  18. ROGER MEXICO

    @”I do appreciate that the English propertied classes would rather have everyone else in the country live in sewers for ten generations than have their house prices drop by a penny”

    ……………ummm……run that by me again?

    English propertied classes ?

    Sewers?

    ………………second thoughts-please don’t bother.

    “Prestige” infrastructure projects ,dreamed up by politicians , which become pointless white elephants are the same in any language.

  19. lcfreitasf

    In Bavaria different right wing parties stand for different legisatures.

    Murdo Fraser unsucessfully stood on a platform of having a Scottish Conservative party for the Scottish Parliament. Several years ago I asked my two Conservative MSP’s why they didn’t do it. They said they were a unionist party and there was no debte about it within the party. One voted for Murdo, the other didn’t.

    Today’s news is that Labour may be moving towards unified local management.

    The present situation of rivalry between MP and MSP can be used to advantage by constituents. It is the same in my constituency where a sure way of getting a reply from the LibDem MP is to CC to the SNP MSP. It also works if both are Labour

    The LibDems could have avoided the worst of the damage of coalition with the toxic tories if there had been two parties. Much of their vote was anti-tory in rural areas where Labour’s focus on urban working class issues left them at a disadvantage. Now of course the SNP have it all.

    The effort and press coverage on the hunting with dogs issue was hugely disproportionate to that on a hundred neglected rural issues of more importance to many, maybe most, rural Scots who had never in their lives seen a hunt in action.

    Bavarianisation would also make the parties independence-ready and avoid the embarrasment of having to set up a Scottish Party after the referendum but before fighting a Scottish Election.

    I’m sure foreign based and funded political parties aren’t permitted in UK law, are they?

    Actually, if they had done it immediately after devolution, the SNP might not have a majority today.

  20. Sorry, the hunting point was meant to relate to Labour, not LibDem.

  21. Seems like a circa 10 point lead is firmly established.

    Obviously anybody who sees me post here knows I generally have Conservative views, in particular on the economy, but I have to say I really do think Andrew Mitchell has to go.

    It was arrogant, and helps serve a narrative that Labour are pushing around out of touch upper middle class men. He further cemented that image, and I actually think it’s more damaging than some of the more recent bigger issues such as the pressure people like Hunt, Gove and Osborne have come under. Will be disappointed if he stays.

  22. lcfreitasf

    “Sorry for asking, but what do you mean by “bavarianisation”? I’ve googled for this and the top two results come from the UKPR comments section, and nowhere had a clear explanation about it”

    One is my comment, and the other is OLDNAT commenting on my use of a cognate word.

  23. Colin

    “Prestige” infrastructure projects ,dreamed up by politicians , which become pointless white elephants are the same in any language.

    I couldn’t agree more. And yet some people fall for them – do you know we’ve actually had people on here praising the Olympics. :D

  24. @Paul Croft – “wafers”

    I don’t know. was that a religious joke?”

    No – you said ‘flake’ and I said ‘do you get wafers with that’.

    The correct response (Monty Python, Albatross sketch, live version) is “Of course you don’t get [email protected] wafers with it’.

    @lcfreitasf – “Sorry for asking, but what do you mean by “bavarianisation”?”

    Hello & welcome – not sure our paths have crossed before. My understanding now of ‘Bavarianisation’ is of a federal system, with autonomous regions within a single national boundary, as opposed to ‘Balkanisation’ which is splitting into ever smaller national jurisdictions.

    Previously, as a young man, I took Bavarianisation to mean ladies with big chests serving large volumes of lager to drunk men in leather shorts. This probably said more about me as a young man than it does about political theory.

  25. @Amberstar – “Martyn & I were the only two who said the eurozone was certain to survive”

    Just to correct a falsehood there – I think you will find I have also always maintained the Eurozone will survive – only not in it’s existing form. From memory, @Martyn’s last substantive dialogue on this matter also concluded that there would be significant changes, and probably one country or so leaving, but this is from memory only and was a while ago, so please don’t ask me to reference.

    I would maintain that events have proved my analysis broadly correct. The EZ is making whatever changes it needs to survive, which in practice means it is becoming a different currency agreement.

    Long term, of course the Euro won’t survive. No currency union ever has.

  26. @ Colin

    “And whilst GO has conceded ( & no doubt will do so again) more time to implement fiscal tightening-the USA is still facing the so-called Fiscal Cliff of tax reduction reversals at the end of this year-with no political consensus on how to deal with it.”

    I feel like consensus will develop on the morning of November 7th no matter what the outcome is. These people have demonstrated an enormous willingness to be productive and to compromise when they’re no longer worried about the next election. Sigh…..

  27. Alec:

    Oh, rightyho.

    My favourite Python line is “in easy stages via banking”.

    I can’t say “easy stages” to anyone without adding that bit which can be awkward at times.

  28. @ Alec

    Okay, I will rephrase yet again: I, Amber Star, was the only one who was … blah, blah, blah …of the opinion that the eurozone would not be allowed to fragment or collapse & would survive, pretty much in the same form as it currently is over a significant period of time, which it would be reasonable to describe as the medium to longterm i.e. it will still be going when we most of us have shuffled off this mortal coil – notwithstanding some incredible advance in genetics which extends our lives beyond the current acturial estimates.

    Anybody else who mooted the survival of the eurozone, please chip in. This is getting to be quite fun – for me anyway*. ;-)

    * Anthony will likely tell me to give it a rest, any minute now…

  29. Alec

    “Long term, of course the Euro won’t survive. No currency union ever has.”

    I suppose that depends on your time-scale. In the Deutscher Zollverein, the introduction of the Vereinsthaler seemed to create a fairly stable currency union.

    Of course, with subsequent changes, and the adoption of the euro, the German currency union didn’t “survive” – though I’m not sure that appellation is appropriate.

  30. Amber:

    i believe I was the only one who definitely thought whatever it was that has turned out to be broadly correct so far but couldn’t be bothered to write in about it and I claim my five pounds.

    Croftee.

  31. Lest I be thought of as prescient (mmmm…warm glow of omniscience), my position is more observing the logistics: if the Euro was to collapse, what would you expect to see happening as precursors? From this, we get the following:

    * There are specific precursors to an involuntary currency collapse: I listed them (money moves out of all banks, money moves out of banks of country A and into those of country B, country C starts printing Euros uncontrolled, country D punitively sanctions country E until country E leaves, and so on), and gave them whimsical names to remember them (the Stephanie Flanders, the Roger Bootle, the Open Europe, the Wolfgang Schauble, and so on).

    * There are specific precursors to a voluntary currency collapse: primarily a Government that wants to do it, just like when Latvia left the rouble voluntarily.

    From memory, there have been two occasions when the Euro came close to involuntary collapse: just before Draghi announced the first “lets buy bonds and pretend we’re not”[1] effort from the ECB, and just before the Greek elections (as I mentioned to @Alec). In both cases we saw quick upsurges in bank movements[4]. And in both cases we saw powerful compensatory functions come into play: Draghi played fast and loose with the rulebook, and the Greek electorate even rejected a party (SYRIZA) that wanted to stay in the Euro but just, y’know, fiddle it a bit.

    To date, no Government has been elected on a “drop the Euro” mandate.[2] Although that’s not the same as saying one will not be elected, and (as I explained to @Roly) Spain may do so in the future. I don’t know if it will, but I think that it can, unlike Greece, Ireland, etc.

    So to summarize. It is entirely possible that the Euro may collapse, and it has come close, but each time compensatory forces deriving from the politicians (retain power and respect of peer group), bankers (prevent bank collapse), and the electorate (prevent life savings become worthless) have prevented it. That doesn’t mean that it’ll survive indefinitely, but it does mean that the concept that the Euro is imposed on an unwilling populace is not the whole story.[3]

    As vague predictions are worthless, I made a measurable one: that Germany and Greece will still be in the Euro on January 1st 2014. To date the only countervailing measurable prediction I have read is from Norman Tebbit (yep), who predicted it’ll collapse between 10 and 20 years after its creation.

    Hope that helps, regards, Martyn

    PS I don’t know if she was the only one, but I do remember Amber maintaining the position she said she did, so it’s not false recall on her part.

    [1] With due deference to Colin, who took pains to explain that it’s not as simple as that
    [2] although some have been elected on a “actually, on second thoughts, we won’t adopt it thanks” mandate
    [3] as I said to somebody: “it’s not a question of explaining slowly to the Greeks that they can escape the Euro, it’s a question of hitting them hard enough across the knuckles to make them release their grip on it”
    [4] the famous “bank jog”

  32. PAULCROFT

    In the context of that discussion, should you not be claiming five euros, or even five drachmas – since your cogitations were clearly related to those currencies?

  33. @ Martyn

    Thanks for confirming & :-)

    @ Old Nat

    Thanks & :-)

    @ Croftee

    LOL :-) but you’re only getting LOLs – no £, € or other currency from me.

  34. @amber et al

    I also backed the ‘euro will survive’ brigade (and still do).

    Though I thought by now that Greece would have been forced out. Not sure now if they still will be- touch and go and related to many factors not least the direction of the European and global economies: enough growth and optimism in the coming 36 months and they’ll pull the miracle off. Even if they are now though they’ll be back within a few decades.

    I also (as I have said several times previously) believe that we need supra national governance to combat speculators and hedgers and to, well, deal with the world as it actually is rather than some pre 1960s utterly outdated notion of national ‘sovereignty’ or-worse-‘autonomy’, that has been completely bypassed by economic reality over the last 45 years.

    That is precisely what Barosso has recently been pushing for with his call for tighter control/ merger of fiscal and monetary functions within the EuroZone and a new major unification treaty. Small independent countries, or moreover their economies (which under global capitalism in effect means the same) are an idea that history is remorsefully putting out with its garbage and has been for several decades now and will continue to so so. Within 40 years the world will- for economic purposes- be made up of a bunch of trading blocks that have their own currency and whose member ‘states’- within each bloc- have no independent economic control. There will be *far* fewer currencies than there are now.

    Unfortunately though (like the setting up of the EU in the first place) Britain won’t be involved again until decades afterwards/ way too late and on far worse terms than if we had been centrally involved from the ground up. But involved inevitably we will be (or a part of NAFTA as some of those on the right have argued for us to be- as an antidote to EU membership- over the last 20 years). UKIP regularly at 10%? They say that- in any epoch- an electorate gets the politicians it deserves.

  35. ROGER MEXICO

    @”do you know we’ve actually had people on here praising the Olympics. ”

    Yes-and rightly so. The sport was incredible & the nation responded.

    THe jury is still out on the infrastructure though………….but I have hopes because the politicians gave it’s construction management to a former athlete……..and he hired a former merchant banker . :-)

  36. “Moving on to policing, 64% would oppose the routine arming of police officers, with only 24% in support. A majority (57%) would support the death penalty for the murder of a police officer. There are also majorities in support of the death penalty for terrorist murders, multiple murders and the murder of a child but people were narrowly opposed to the death penalty for all murders, by 42% to 38%. Apart from a slight increase in support for the death penalty for the murder of a police officer, these are pretty much unchanged since the last time YouGov asked.”

    I’m surprised by this polling number. I thought there was greater opposition to the death penalty in the UK.

    Anyone here who is strongly opposed to it still has opportunity to convince me to vote against it (I asked Sandra Fluke too on Twitter but she hasn’t taken me up on my offer).

  37. http://beverlyhills.patch.com/articles/romney-cali-becoming-more-european-under-obama?ncid=wsc-patch-article-headline

    I wonder what he meant by this. I know it was meant as an insult but (1) I’m not sure what it means to be more European and that this is happenning, (2) I’m not sure this is a bad thing, and (3) I’m not sure how this is the President’s fault.

  38. Well, as I predicted one or two threads ago, and was castigated in various ways by various posters, the Mitchell story has not faded – indeed it has become more damaging the longer it has gone on.

    I’m going to be ‘kind’ to the PM. If Mitchell has not been forthright about what he said to the police, one can say DC accepted his word without question. That it now looks increasingly like Mitchell did say ‘pleb’, we are left with the view(s) that the PM is gullible (some observers might recall similar naivety by DC) and that the Con MPs etc see themselves as above everyone. For his own sake, and the office of the PM, DC should sack Mitchell today.

    …………………………..

    On the Euro zone, I have never said whether it will collapse or continue. I remain faithful to this position.

  39. @SoCal

    Anyone here who is strongly opposed to it [the death penalty] still has opportunity to convince me to vote against it.
    —————————–
    Look at the racial profiles of people murdered & whose killers are sentenced to death in America.

    http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/Blume_etal.pdf

    Perhaps Martin Luther King can persuade you to vote against it.

    “The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral, begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy. … In fact, violence merely increases hate. … Returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars.”

    “Make your way to death row and speak with the tragic victims of criminality. As they prepare to make their pathetic walk to the electric chair, their hopeless cry is that society will not forgive. Capital punishment is society’s final assertion that it will not forgive.”

  40. Just watched the Mitchell “non ” statement.
    By not offering clarification Mr Mitchell appears to be following the Maxim if you find yourself in a hole keep digging.

  41. “no monetary union ever has”
    How about the CFA Franc (actually the two interrelated Central African and West African CFAs) created by France on Dec 26 1946 and guaranteed by the French Territory, and given stability by its linkage with initially the French Franc and now the Euro?
    1 January 1999 onward – 100 CFA franc = 0.152449 euro or 1 euro = 655.957 CFA franc. (1 January 1999: euro replaced FRF at the rate of 6.55957 FRF for 1 euro)
    The 1960 and 1999 events were merely changes in the currency in use in France: the relative value of the CFA franc versus the French franc / euro changed only in 1948 and 1994 (Wikipedia).

  42. Treasury, not territory.

  43. Incidentally, hugely valuable to the 14 member countries over the years. Also to any organisations operating in neighbouring countries. The Holy Father running support for NGOs working with the Catholic Mission in Upper Region Ghana, when the Cedi and the Ghanaian economy was collapsing in the late 1970’s, ran a support operation trading aid vehicles over the border in Burkino Fasu (the Upper Volta) for CFA, at a rate which funded a number of excellent anti-poverty programmes. Women’s dry season vegetables production from dug wells in river beds was one.

  44. Amber:

    I feel quite emotional at the award of a LOL and a smiley from you, especially given how rarely you use them………………..

    pAul

  45. The tables for the Opinium poll in the Observer are now up:

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/OP3001_FINAL_Tables.pdf

    Some interesting questions on whether people would consider voting Lib Dem in various situations – always bearing in mind Anthony’s warnings about hypotheticals.

  46. And Survation’s tables for the Mail on Sunday are here:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Law-Order-Tables.pdf

    Questions include whether the various Party leaders are charismatic, strong, compassionate, attractive and statemanlike – nothing as mundane as competent. Later we’ll presumably have the swimsuit round and they’ll tell us they would like to work with children or animals.

    There are also questions on the effect of Nick Clegg’s “apology” – as with YouGov an evenly split response with the majority unmoved either way, and an equal split on on whether “he should be applauded for his honesty and courage” or “he has made himself a laughing stock”.

    Survation were also speedy enough to ask The government Chief Whip – Andrew Mitchell MP, has reportedly sworn repeatedly at police when they declined to open a Downing Street gate to let him cycle through. Should Andrew Mitchell MP resign from his position as Chief Whip?, though only of a sub-sample (413). 67% said yes, including 56% of Tories, though the sample is small and a bit odd-looking.

    There’s also a lot of questions on the death penalty and arming the police.

  47. On a different topic, a big story here in Scotland is the Mail on Sunday’s independence poll of 16 and 17-year-olds (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2207207/Scottish-teenagers-say-NO-independence-blow-Salmond.html).
    However, it appears they conducted the poll themselves, and there’s not any information on the selection of schools, participants or weighting. In spite of this, they’re reporting the results as if they were comparable to results from proper polling companies.

  48. If some kind person posted a link to the Opinium tables, how likely is it that you would trawl through all 115 pages in the hope of finding something that supports your own political viewpoint?

    Very likely, quite likely, neither likely nor unlikely, quite unlikely, very unlikely, don’t know?

    While it is interesting to compare the ‘voted LD in 2010, now Labour’ cohort’s reponses to a Clegg-or-Cable question, there is some doubt on LD Voice about whether there will be a leadership contest *before* the election unless Clegg steps down voluntarily, (they say it won’t happen – look at the constitution – there have been changes to the constitution recently but I still can’t get to the bottom of it unless there is something about him being deputy PM)… in any event the outcome of any leadership contest is by no means certain. If they had asked about Ed Davey and Tim Farron there would probably have been more ‘don’t knows’ and we would be looking at up to 200 pages.

    The findings are somewhat contradictory if we include the hypothetical about a new LD leader, but Opinium is also showing Labour VI level with Con on ‘likelihood to vote’. Is this a reliable indicator, or have Labour supporters declared themselves equally likely to vote in recent general elections (where this has proved not to be the case)?

  49. @Thomas Widman

    There is a little info at the bottom of the article:

    “We polled 2,457 pupils aged 14 and 15 in 24 schools across Scotland between September 3 and September 17.”

    However, as you say, there’s no mention of which schools.

  50. UKIP on 12% and 2% AHEAD of the Liberal Democrats, with the Tories on 29%- perhaps the Rich and the Go-Getters in Britain are finally waking up to the fact that there is a real, viable anti-socialist Party emerging in Britain that is a proper alternative to the become-socialist Tories as led by David Cameron.

    And for all Nick Clegg’s postering about Wealth Taxes it seems to have done him little good: the market for the Socialist Vote is SATURATED- and most of them will never trust his Party for a long, long time (prefering to vote “Labour” who are on 41%) no matter how many times he says “Sorry”!

    Seems to be a fair assessment of the political landscape at present!

    Ian Pennell

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