The full details of the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here. Topline figures are CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 8% – so a nine point lead and pretty much in line with YouGov’s recent polls (the seven point lead some people were tweeting last night comes from hypothetical match ups, of which we’ll come to later).

The regular leaders approval ratings stand at minus 21 for Cameron, minus 29 for Miliband and minus 63 for Clegg, this is Clegg’s worst score so far (although only marginally down from minus 61 last week, which itself was a record low).

As I mentioned, YouGov asked several hypothetical voting intention questions. I should start with the normal caveats about these type of questions – they are quite low information, so while they can give us a steer on whether politicians who are very well known, respondents don’t know what policies those politicians would actually put in place if they were leader, what their priorities would be, how the media would react to them as leader and so on.

If the leaders remain as they are now at the next election (which YouGov ask as a control question) people’s voting intentions would be CON 34, LAB 41, LDEM 9 (when asked this way it consistently shows a slightly smaller Labour lead than usual – probably the effect of mentioning Ed Miliband in the question).

If the Liberal Democrats replaced Nick Clegg with Vince Cable they would increase their vote by a third, taking support from Labour – CON 34(nc), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 12%(+3). If the Conservatives replaced David Cameron with Boris Johnson they would increase their support by four percentage points, wiping out Labour’s lead – CON 38%(+4), LAB 38%(-3), LDEM 9%(nc). And if you combine both changes and the leaders at the next election were Boris, Ed and Vince, voting intentions become – CON 39%(+5), LAB 35%(-6), LDEM 11%(+2): a Conservative lead. As I said, extremely hypothetical and I expect many people are projecting onto Boris and Vince whatever they would like their ideallised Tory or Lib Dem leader to do.

On the Liberal Democrats and the coalition, with the benefit of hindsight 34% of people think entering the coalition was the right thing for the Liberal Democrats to do, compared to 48% who think it was the wrong decision. A majority (52%) think the decision to go into coalition has turned out to be bad for Britain. Asked what they would like to happen in the future, 30% would prefer to see a Labour/Lib Dem coalition, 26% a minority Conservative government, 19% for the coalition to continue. More interesting are the breakdowns amongst party supporters – slightly more Tory supporters would prefer a minority government (49%) than the present coalition (44%), amongst remaining Lib Dem supporters only 38% support the coalition, 26% would prefer a coalition with Labour, 16% would prefer a minority Conservative government. A hefty majority (63%) of Labour supporters would naturally prefer a Lab-LD coalition.

Turning to Nick Clegg himself, he is seen as indecisive by 66% (decisive 14%), untrustworthy by 58% (trustworthy 24%), weak 75% (strong 11%)… but is still seen as likeable by 42% (dislikeable by 38%). Attitudes to the apology are mixed – while people say it had made Clegg look weaker (by 41% to 21%), they are evenly split on whether they feel more positive or negative about him as a result of it – 16% of people say it has made them more positive about Clegg, 17% more negative. They are also quite evenly split on whether the apology was genuine – 35% think it was, 40% think it was not.

Better results for Clegg are that people do at least think he apologised for the right thing – 47% think his mistake was to make a promise he couldn’t keep, compared to 31% think the bigger mistake was to back the policy. 7% think he needed have apologised for either.

Moving on to policing, 64% would oppose the routine arming of police officers, with only 24% in support. A majority (57%) would support the death penalty for the murder of a police officer. There are also majorities in support of the death penalty for terrorist murders, multiple murders and the murder of a child but people were narrowly opposed to the death penalty for all murders, by 42% to 38%. Apart from a slight increase in support for the death penalty for the murder of a police officer, these are pretty much unchanged since the last time YouGov asked.

The figures from the Survation poll last night have also shown up, topline figures there are CON 29%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%.


156 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 43, LD 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. Has ICM’s Lab 41/Con 31/Lib 14/Other 14 been discussed yet? It’s unusual to see such high Labour figures from ICM, so on the one hand it seems like we could discard it, on the other hand ICM seems to be pulling behind the figures the other pollsters are showing. Does anyone know what the ICM headline figures would be after turnout alteration but before their 50% of prior voter reallocation?

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  2. err – 00ps rubbsih oZwald
    Con 31
    Lab 41
    LD 14

    apols

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  3. TOH:

    Ta for your concern – I’m as fit as a fiddle wot’s just been on a round-the-world fiddling holiday with an attractive viola though.

    and

    1/ You’re confusing me with someone who gives a toss

    and

    2/ You’re the one confusing point of view with lack of capacity. I merely note that to accuse Miliband and Balls of the latter because you don’t agree with the former is rather typical right-wing arrogance. That doesn’t make me Mr. Angry but Mr. Well-Balanced.

    Phil: Thanks for what I think was support…

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  4. NicP

    “I’m not sure that Conservative can win the next election on an “economic credibility” platform unless we can see some signs of a recovery.”

    Of course there will be “some signs of a recovery”, but will it be a big enough sign; will it be in time to make a difference; will it last long enough; will it be significant; will it be believed to be stable?

    We didn’t see these signs of recovery last week. Will we see them next week? The week after? In time to lift the mood for Christmas? Christmas next year?

    It needs to be more than a “sign” of recovery, it needs to be a real one, and it needs to come soon.

    When is too late? That’s a matter of opinion, but there must come point when even the most partisan Cons would have to agree it’s too late.

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  5. Top Hat
    We’ll have to wait for the tables, which usually takes a couple of days.
    But it usually knocks a few % off Labour and boosts the Libs by a few.
    So we could be looking at somewhere between 41 and 45 for Lab – which would be in line with the other pollsters of somewhere between 10 and 14.

    And as a general question- is anybody getting tired of “My side’s going to win because they’re the best and the economy will x and then everybody will love them because the other side are incompetent fools” narratives?
    Because that’s what it looks like the last few pages of comments have been like.

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  6. Guardian’s reporting hasn’t a clear indication of VI if Cable were leader, but it seems to be:
    Con 30, Lab 38, Lib 19
    This would be a pretty dreadful result for the Conservatives but seems a very unlikely scenario.

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