This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%, a nine point lead for Labour.
Yesterday also saw the revised recommendations from the Scottish Boundary Commission – published here. While the boundary review looks unlikely to be actually implemented the law still requires the boundary commissions to deliver a review by October 2013, so the process rolls onwards. The English commission is due to report its own revised recommendations next month.
I will put up updated notionial figures in due course, but the revised proposals in Scotland make very little difference – eighteen seats see changes to their recommended boundaries, but apart from around Dundee these are mostly minor tweaks, often to the detail of how divided wards are split. The Scottish Commission’s proposals were much better received than in England and received comparatively little comment or objection – largely it seems because they happily split council wards, so were not forced into strange decisions by the arithmetic of the ward electorates. There is no difference from the provisional recommendations in terms of how many seats the parties would have won in Scotland at the last election – it remains Conservatives 1 (no change), Labour 37 (down 4), Liberal Democrats 8 (down 3), SNP 6 (no change).