This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%. Full tabs are here

Meanwhile the now weekly poll from TNS BMRB has figures of CON 30%(-1), LAB 41%(-2), LDEM 12%(+2), Others 17(nc) – changes are from their last poll a week ago.


136 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS polls”

1 2 3
  1. It’s official. No postive reshuffle effect for Con.

    Latest YouGov/The Sun results 11th Sept – CON 31%, LAB 44%, LD 9%, UKIP 8%; APP -40

    This is the lower and upper ends recently for Lab and Con…will we see 30 and/or 46…or back to 6 points lead?

  2. Does anyone have a link to today’s YouGov tables? The one on Twitter and on their website leads to a page not found.

  3. Extraordinary how the crossbreaks are looking

    18-24 lab *22
    25-39 lab +22
    40-59 lab +22
    60+ con +5

    lon lab+10
    ros con +7
    mid/w lab +20
    north lab +27
    sco lab +23 (but SNP complicates)

  4. @Amberstar

    Being long retired, I miss going to the TUC Conference as a guest of TGWU. I always found it screamingly funny and it used to cheer me up if i was down. The current Conference seems as funny as ever.

  5. “Poll with Boris as leader –
    Con 37, Lab 38, LD 11”

    I wonder what a poll would show if the sample was asked for their voting intention if Jimmy Tarbuck became leader of the Labour Party? Or Jessica Ennis, maybe? Mo Farrah and we’d be in landslide territory, wouldn’t we?? lol

    As for the real, rather than the fanciful poll, that’s two 31%s for the Tories in succession and YouGov are now slap bang in line with nearly all the other pollsters in respect to the Tory VI. We might need to keep an eye on this because with the Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP VI more or less static, it seems to be only the Tory VI that’s on the move; and that move appears to be steadily downwards.

    I have to say that, rather like someone else who posted on this subject yesterday, I’m still astounded that the incumbents haven’t had the remotest boost or benefit from the summer events that appear to have captivated the nation (Jubilee, Olympics etc). I’m not arguing that they deserved one, by the way, just that one of the basic laws of politics usually says that national feelgood factors benefit, albeit temporarily, those in power. The fact that they haven’t on this occasion is a matter of no little curiosity and interest.

  6. The Boris poll isn’t the same sample as the one which produced the 13 point Labour lead so the 8 point Labour lead when the actual Party leaders are named isn’t a direct comparison.

    There’s no switch in Scotland or the North when Boris is substituted for DC. He’s a Tory, they all look, sound & smell the same from up here. ;-)

    A slight switch in the Midlands & RoS (less than I’d have expected, if I’d been asked to guess) but the main movement is in London which has more Boris support than I’d have thought there would be for him as leader of the Cons.

    Despite these polls, I think Boris will be looking for a safer seat than Zac Goldsmith’s for his return to Westminster.

  7. Nick P.
    Many thanks.

    HOWARD THE OTHER.
    I found them funny at one level, but then having thought about them later, they became deeply saddening. Their well paid leaders destroying their own TIGMOO and the lives of their own members by outlandish rhetoric and ‘composites’

    But, yes, funny stuff!

  8. So while The Sun is reporting that the poll goes from Lab 42, Con 31 to Lab 38, Con 37.. the actual tables show Lab 40, Con 32 – when prompting with a similar question.

    So Lab -2, Con +5.. not Lab -4, Con +6 as reported

    Shock and surprise in The Sun inaccurate reporting scandal!

  9. CB11: “..no little curiosity and interest.”

    ….and pleasure.

  10. Nick, Amber,

    Thanks!

  11. @crossbat11 – “…if Jimmy Tarbuck became leader of the Labour Party?”

    Seriously though, that isn’t going to happen, but Andy Burhaqm does have a Jimmy Tarbuck face when he needs it:

    h
    ttp://www.zimbio.com/photos/Andy+Burnham/Oldham+Saddleworth+Election+Count/ta21cHM70kz

  12. Even with Boris as leader, fresh from the Olympics & Paralympics ‘victory’ parade the Tories still can’t sneak ahead of Ed’s Labour Party.
    8-)

  13. @Chrislane1945

    Nice we can agree on the TUC, and yes, i agree it is also sad. In my day Bill Morris was my contact, nice man if misguided politically (in my view). We always talked cricket, safe ground for both of us and he loved his cricket.

  14. @OldNat

    You said “…Quite why you want to pretend that only one person in Scotland wants independence seems somewhat odd. You aren’t stupid – so why make such a stupid comment?…”

    You misrepresent my position. I wasn’t saying that Salmond was the only person wanting independence. I was using Salmond as a synecdoche for “post-independence Scotland government” and the situation in which I was using the synecdoche was one where a post-independence Scotland government was seeking other countries’ cooperation in considering rUK as a new state instead of the legal continuation.

    And the point I was making (to which I wearily return for the nth time) is that the cooperation of other countries is required for your desiderata[1] to happen. And the number of countries that have announced their cooperation to date is zero.

    Calling me partisan, or silly, or absolutist will not change this.

    Regards, Martyn

    [1] That Scotland and rUK will be deemed successor states to UKGBNI. That Scotland will accede to the EU.

  15. Jimmy Tarbuck would of course be far more likely to become leader of the Conservative Party. It’s odd how Scouse celebrities seem to be Tories above a certain age – so are Cilla Black & Ken Dodd.
    The 13% Labour lead is interesting though there was a 14 not that long ago. The lead seems to be towards the upper end of what we’ve seen during this parliament. It isn’t statistically significantly higher than the 10-11% leads other polls have tended to show, but if it were to grow any further it would start to be a really serious worry for the Tories.

  16. Zac Goldsmith reportedly went into a detailed ward by ward breakdown of Tory support in his attempt to show Boris Johnson that Richmond Park is winnable.

    Johnson had calculated that a second term as Mayor of London would keep his profile high enough so that he could take Cameron’s job after the GE.

    Cameron has got into trouble too quickly though, with the possibility of a leadership challenge next year. In a way that could suit older candidates (like Hague and Johnson) because by 2015 new intake MPs will be coming to the fore, but Boris reaaly needs to decide if he is going for the naked leaqdership bid.

  17. Boris will never have a better opportunity; he’ll become Boris the bottler, if he lets it sail past.
    8-)

  18. AMBERSTAR

    “And his speech wasn’t booed; nor was his Q&A jeered but there was some, isolated heckling in response to a few of his answers”
    ____

    Well you had better get yourself onto the phone and call The Scotsman News and Herald both of whom have done one over on the iconic Ed Balls.

    “Mr Balls received polite applause after attacking the government’s “failed” economic policies and calling for alternatives, but it turned to heckling when he made it clear he would not change his mind on public sector pay despite sparking anger last year by supporting restraint.”

    “He said there would have been spending cuts if Labour had won the last election, admitting there would be “disappointment and difficult decisions from which we cannot flinch”.

    “Ed Balls booed after comments on public sector pay freeze”

    ” Unison general secretary criticises shadow chancellor for comments”

    “Union delegates reacted angrily to Mr Balls when he told a delegate in a question-and-answer session that a Labour government would have to continue with pay restraint ”
    _____

    Poor guy but for what it’s worth I agree with Balls on distancing himself from the Unions over strikes. Wouldn’t we all love to have a pay increase and not just those in Public sector Civy land? :)

  19. Lot’s of polls regarding a potential Boris Bounce (I would pay to see Boris Bounce). Utterly pointless because even though the Tories are renowned for stabbing their leaders in the back they have not done so after the afore mentioned leader has not actually lost an election (call it a score draw) and is in their first term of office as PM.

    It may be that Boris will be nicely placed as leader of the opposition in 2015 and potential PM in 2020 but if a weeks a long time in politics 8 Years is pushing it.

  20. Boris Bounce?

    Crikey the only “Boris Bounce” I’ve seen was someone bouncing off the saddle on a Boris bike when she mounted the curb!! ;)

  21. It seems crystal clear now that Murdoch’s out to get Cameron if he can. But if we’re discussing “what ifs”, what if Murdoch doesn’t get his way, and Johnson fails to oust Cameron as leader before the next election, after several years in which Murdoch uses all the still considerable resources at his disposal to try and effect that result?

    The mud thrown to try and effect that result has to be aimed mainly at the record of a Conservative government under Cameron’s direction, rather than at Cameron as a person. There’s the potential for very real damage to the Conservative brand in the meantime. So it’s a very high stakes game that Murdoch’s playing, in terms of the electoral prospects of the Conservatives.

  22. The 31 for Con is an outlier, but only just, while 44 is the mode value for Labour at present. My MAD figures for the day are:

    Con: 33.2
    Lab: 43.7
    Lib: 10.0

    So as it stands, it looks pretty much as if the Lib Dem votes of 2010 have been shed to Labour, with the Others taking some Con votes.

    It’s striking that in spite of the all the doom predictions regarding the Con VI, it’s only 2.9% down from 2010 (36.1 to 33.2).

    The success story is that Labour is up 14.7 (29.0 to 43.7) so it seems that the Lib Dems have given Labour their voters through coalition politics.

    All assuming my data is correct, that is.

  23. Around 30% of the voting public will vote Tory irrespective of who or indeed what is being put up as a candidate.

    I agree with your assessment the true story is the growth of Labour Support ,this is mainly but not exclusively down to the fact that 60% of LD voters voted for LD as a centre/left alternative to Labour and the Coalition has removed this option.

    Reality check says there will be no sudden arrival of the other Old Etonian to save the Tories bacon in 2015 and similarly while the LD’s are propping up what centre/left supporters perceive as a Tory government those votes aren’t going anywhere other than Labour.

  24. It is possible that the “call for Boris” cry might lead to natural Tory voters voting him/them out or abstaining next time beause then they get their perceived dream leader. It’s all conspiring to make [] Ed PM with a very usable majority next time out.

    All our politicians have feet of clay. See Blair, Obama whoever.

  25. OLDNAT
    “If London determined to cast Scotland into the darkness inhabited by Norway and Switzerland, that might actually increase the Yes vote.”

    That is why I think it very unlikely that rUK would try to prevent/veto Scotland’s membership of the EU – because it would provoke a strong reaction from the Tory right. And as you pointed out Scotland would probably do OK further fuelling UKIP and the Tory right.

  26. Boris is a great cheerleader, and he does have an easygoing and self-deprecating manner which makes him a popular personality. He also has the kind of independent mind Londoners want in a Mayor.

    But…when it comes to core policy, there really isn’t much between him, Cameron or Osborne. He may even be further to the Right of Cameron.

    If the Tories opt for Boris as Leader of the Cons, they will effectively be attempting to win the next election on positive cheerleadering, rather than policy.

    Also those London stats need to be treated with caution. Lab were around +10 in London for the London Assembly election, even when Boris won he Mayoralty. So, I can’t really see erstwhile London Labour folk voting Tory in a GE (parliamentary election) just because,the Tory party is,lead by Boris.

  27. Don’t forget how close the Boris Ken vote actually was.

    As a Lab voter the Boris effect is as big an illusion as the idea that a shift to traditional right wing Con values will get the Tories elected with a majority again.

    It’s Fool’s Gold.

  28. @STEVE – “Tories are renowned for stabbing their leaders in the back”

    You would be right that a challenge to Cameron would be unprecedented – however, new rules governing a challenge to the Conservative leader were introduced in 1998 (Howard attempted to change them again, but failed) – so Cameron as sitting first-term PM is in something of a unique position.

    Currently 46 letters (from15 per cent of the parliamentary party) to Graham Brady (1922 Committee Chairman) would be required to trigger a contest for the leadership of the party.

  29. STEVE

    “However, frankly it is difficult to see how from the present VI the Conservatives can rationally expect to achieve a majority come 2015.”

    There are broadly four outcomes Con or Lab majority or hung left or right.

    So that’s one, who like me who thinks that No Con majority is now a safe prediction.

    As they used to say, “Tell me sir, do you hang [dress?]to the left or the right.?”

  30. postageincluded @ OldNat

    “… luckily for you, most of your Tories (they were once fairly common) have disappeared. Don’t be shy, now, tell us where you put them!

    The crematorium.

    Scottish Tories were anti-Labour Presbyterian Christian Democrats, some of them to the left of new Labour on many issues. Long before Thatcher, the values that she represented began to dominate in the Conservative party and a drift first to the Liberals and recently to the SNP began to sweep down from the North.

    The Butskillite consensus suited these people. They mistrusted economic fundamentalism (left or right)and their successors cautiously accept SNP pragmatism and competence. UKIP they were not.

    The sermon on the mount rather than the sermon on the mound was their inspiration.

    Harold Macmillan had the same challenges as DC in keeping a disparate party together but he managed it rather better. His failures were mostly due to the people he relied on. (the Murdoch excuse)

    Was that because of bad judgement or a too limited choice of competent, sober, honest ministers of conventional sexual habits? I’m much more sympathetic towards him now than I was at the time.

  31. @John B Dick & Steve

    I was thinking similar thoughts whilst washing up a little while ago.

    There is no sign at present of the Conservatives doing betternext time than they did in 2010. Quite a lot of signs they will do a little (1-2%) worse, thanks to Labour and UKIP pecking a little support away each. Conversely, there’s plenty of signs that Labour are going to do quite a lot better than in 2010.

    So, at best Cons/Lab more or less neck and neck, mid 30’s, LD’s mid teens, UKIP 4% – that’s some sort of hung parliament, Labour largest party.

  32. Martyn

    I know that you like being certain of everything – but HoC researchers and scholars in the field don’t share your certainty.

    http://eutopialaw.com/2011/11/14/685/

  33. @OldNat, hi!

    Thank you for your http://eutopialaw.com/2011/11/14/685/ Looking at it as follows:

    * Para 1-2: Hi, I’m Aiden! I read stuff Arabella and Gavin wrote! They are brainy! I am pricey!
    * Para 3-9: There are three alternatives: a) C&S, b) separation, c) dissolution
    * Para 10: Life is complicated.
    * Para 11-12: EU is big on law
    * Para 13: You can’t deprive a EU citizen of citizenry without due process
    * Para 14-16: In the EU, people are important
    * Para 17: We reckon the CJEU would plump for b) separation. Because, y’know, stuff.
    * Para 18: Member States can’t just leave.
    * Para 19: Eurosceptics suck

    (I think I’ve met Gavin, btw. It’s a small world…)

    Incidentally, Para 18 is a non-sequitur. Scotland is not a EU member state so the question of its secession does not arise. He threw that in for padding.

    Para 17 is the important part, with the author arguing that the primacy of the citizen in EU law would prevent their EU citzenship being withdrawn without due process (fair enough) and that this would lead the CJEU to rule that Scotland remains in the EU. So how would UK react? Hmmm…

    The United Kingdom would argue that the citizen may voluntarily deprive himself of EU citizenship via due process and that rejecting his own UK citizenship in favour of citizenship of an “other state” constitutes such due process if that “other state” is outside the EU. This happens thousands of times a day and meets para 13. Consequently the CJEU cannot admit that “other state” to the EU as a member state to prevent its citizens losing EU membership because:

    * i) that lies outside its power (it’s ultra vires) and
    * ii) it would enable the CJEU to admit every state on Earth to the EU, a plainly ludicrous outcome.

    There y’go. Aiden QC reckons the CJEU would rule b). I reckon CJEU wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole. Neither Aiden nor I are ever going to stand before the CJEU so our opinions are of equal validity. And mine used less Latin, so I win… :-)

    Incidentally, OldNat, I’m disappointed. You put me up against a QC? Jeez, couldn’t you find somebody with brains? Put me up against a quant and then I’ll start worrying… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  34. Martyn

    Lawyers will argue the case! :-)

1 2 3