This morning’s YouGov results for the Sun had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 45%, LD 8%, UKIP 6%. It’s been a funny week of YouGov polls, with some 12 points leads and some 6 point ones. There have been rather more of the former than the latter, but I’m still not sure what the underlying picture will turn out to be when things settle down a bit. Meanwhile the latest figures from TNS-BMRB, who are now doing weekly voting intention polls, have topline figures of CON 31%(nc), LAB 43%(+3), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 17%(-1).

I will off at EPOP2012 this weekend (or Glastonbury for political scientists, as my colleague Joe Twyman calls it) so won’t be posting much on the weekend polls.


164 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS polls”

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  1. The rebound of Miliband’s rating rather suggests that he was being hit by the lack of attention than anything else. Either that or the public likes a man who gets the coffees when it’s his turn.

    Cameron’s rating is the worst since May, but not dramatically so. As so often in the Sunday Times polls, we learn as much from what the questions say about the News International agenda as what the answers themselves tell us about what the public think.

    It’s quite clear that NI are really putting the pressure on Cameron – the questions on his personal qualities are a good example. Whether they want to keep the pressure on him to move rightwards or want him replaced outright is another matter. Boris is being lined up, but I suspect NI would prefer a bait-and-switch operation to get their man Gove in. Despite his overtures to Murdoch, I suspect they don’t trust Boris and of course he is in the pay of the Telegraph group not them. Whether the public or the Conservative Party want either is another matter – but they probably think they can arrange that.

  2. NICKP

    Of course, you are entitled to be sad. Those who wish for things to remain the same are often sad when their cosy world is threatened.

    Still, we can’t let you Tories stop reform, change and progress! :-)

  3. @Roger M

    I’m still puzzled by the under 25 sample. I’d also spotted from the tables that the unweighted number is shown at 199 weighted up to 224 – in fact that’s just about the first thing I always look for now. But go to the very end of the file on the weighting data, and you’ll see that there are still only 36 u25 males, and 48 u25 females, making 84 rather than 199. At that point I gave up trying to make sense of it.

    Perhaps AW might find the time to explain what’s going on when he returns from ‘Glastonbury’.

  4. @Howard,

    I don’t think any party will reject debates in principle, but I suspect it is likely they will fail to agree on a format. Labour has already made it clear that it would find a repeat of the 2010 unacceptable on the basis that it would be unfair for two Coalition leaders to be up against a single Opposition party leader.On the other hand, Labour’s proposal of debates between Cameron and Milliband whilst Clegg debates with Harman is not likely to find favour with the LibDems..
    A further alternative might be three debates – Cameron v Clegg- Milliband v Clegg – and Cameron v Milliband..
    More generally,though, I think it is a mistake to assume that simply because we have had debates at one election , we are stuck with them for all time. Many people found that X Factor politics seriously trivialized the election. Also worth recalling that in the US debates took place in 1960 between Kennedy and Nixon – yet did not happen again until 1976.

  5. JIMJAM

    Since NickP mentioned etymology, you may wish to look at the etymology and history of the term “Britain”.

  6. The British Isles is an archipelago consisting of the two large islands of Great Britain and Ireland, and many smaller surrounding islands. By tradition, it also includes the Channel Islands, although they are physically closer to the continental mainland.

  7. Amber

    Seems a good appointment, but I think you get the stress wrong in comparing her and the FM.

    Kate Higgins describes them as having a “symbiotic relationship”, which I think is accurate. Which of them leads on a particular issue is the result of their joint judgement, I think.

  8. NICKP

    We agree.

  9. “The rebound of Miliband’s rating rather suggests that he was being hit by the lack of attention than anything else. Either that or the public likes a man who gets the coffees when it’s his turn.”
    IIRC His approval rating has been bouncing around for the last few weeks, yo-yoing between 22-ish and 28-ish – so I suspect that the bounce back up is just the fluctuation.
    Probably not too much to read in to it rather, like the 6 to 12 lead bouncing, it’s just natural fluctuation.

    Same with Cameron’s drop this week – I expect, black swan events excluded, they’ll be back to neck and neck in the 21-24 range by next week.

  10. Phil

    Sorry, I should have warned about that. I’ve more or less given up looking at the weighting tables. The last few times they usually appear to belong to a completely different sample entirely. I think there’s some technical thing with how YouGov does them that makes it very easy to pick up the wrong figures. That or they’re just not bothering to update them

  11. Graham
    “Also worth recalling that in the US debates took place in 1960 between Kennedy and Nixon – yet did not happen again until 1976.”

    And with good reason. Polls of voters who had heard the 1960 debate on the radio had Nixon well ahead. But he’d had flu that week; on TV, he looked pale, weak, sweaty and shifty and voters who had seen the TV footage were decisively on Kennedy’s side.

    ‘Course, the correct decision may well have been arrived at, but for entirely the wrong reasons. Whatever your opinions, it just shows how a TV debate skews the impact.

    I had a similar experience in the first TV debate here in 10. Listened to it on the radio whilst on a train and I thought Clegg sounded shallow and twee. I was astonished to arrive home and fund the pundits hailing the Second Coming. But on watching the TV footage, he appeared the most commanding, natural and honest of the three.

    As I say, it just goes to show how TV debates can give a grossly wrong impression…

  12. tingedfringe

    If you look at the trackers:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4rxhn3nhqa/YG-Archives-Trackers-Leaders-060912.pdf

    Cameron has been mid-20s for a while, the -21s during the Olympics may have been the exception rather than the rule. Today’s -28 may be a blip or could be a further fall caused by an unpopular reshuffle.

    Miliband’s ratings have been even more volatile over the Summer, possibly due to lack of coverage. He has had more low 20s recently than anything else. so last week’s -29 was probably the blip. It’s also worth pointing out how dramatic his recovery has been since earlier in the year when it was in the 40s.

  13. David Weir wins the Marathon, to add to his wins in the 800m, 1500m and 5000m. The greatest athletics achievement since Zatopek?

  14. Roger
    Thanks for making that clearer – I guess that I haven’t been paying close enough attention.

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