This morning’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%. This is the second YouGov poll in a space of a week to show the Labour lead down to six points. After yesterday’s YouGov poll showed a Labour lead back to eleven points following the six point lead at the weekend I had rather dismissed the YouGov/Sunday Times poll as just an outlier. This poll suggests there may be more to it.

Of course all the YouGov polls over the last week or two have had the Conservatives within two points of 33% and the Labour party within two points of 42%. While two six point leads after months of nine to ten points leads is rather a big co-incidence, strictly speaking there isn’t actually anything that couldn’t be explained by normal sample variation. Let’s wait and see a bit longer before looking for explanations.

There is also a new Opinium poll out today which has figures of CON 31%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 9%(-1). There is certainly no sign of a narrowing Labour lead there.


167 Responses to “New YouGov and Opinium polls”

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  1. “I’ve just had a mate on the phone frothing at the mouth at having “that tea lef Laws” in his Department. Which made me think.”

    No wonder Gove has a struggle with his so called Civil Servants.

    UK Civil Service is the biggest sheet anchor in UK governmental policy,

  2. “…the biggest sheet…”

    One sheet does plenty

  3. “UK Civil Service is the biggest sheet anchor in UK governmental policy,”

    You forgot to add ICWO*

  4. @NickP
    Laws’ return to the govt was mooted all the way back in 2010 just after he resigned, and it is no surprise at all. Even though, as others have rightly noted, he perhaps should have spent time at HM pleasure for a while, and surely I would have done for claiming 40k I was not entitled to.

    What the reshuffle betrays, other than the weakness of DC’s position, is that he is giving up hope of attracting any moderate/undecided voters who did not vote Con last time round. I was amazed Hunt was promoted to Health (I had tipped him for defenestration – shows what I know). Perhaps it is reward for acting as a human flak jacket over Murdoch & Leveson, but it also shows that DC has given up on detoxifying Con re. the NHS. From a strategic point of view, placing someone whose integrity has been so publically questioned into a role which his predecessor royally mucked up strongly suggests you have stopped caring about that department. It was right to drop Lansley, but to replace him with Hunt is nonsensical. Hunt is simply adding to Lab’s NHS ammunition.

    I am most bothered by the (as ever) near invisibility of women and the total invisibility of BEM. Anyway.

    The reshuffle will do nothing for Con VI. What other tricks does DC have to rally the voters? It cannot all rest on us building more conservatories.

  5. *In Colin’s Wrong Opinion

  6. tark

    but the difference between the reshuffle and the omnishambles budget is that the right and therefore much of the press and other commentators quite like it.

    But I tend to agree about giving up on attracting the centre and left. “Back to the bunker”?

  7. I see last night’s was one of those rare polls that show Respect at 1%.

  8. @TingedFringe

    The best possible government is right at the end of the Government Approval tracker, page 19.

  9. @NickP

    “Personally I was disgusted that Hunt wasn’t sacked and that Laws is back in cabinet.”

    They’re all at it. Mandelson and Blunkett spring to mind.

  10. “I’m not too posh to take my turn to make coffee for my colleagues” would have been a good riposte in my opinion.

    It was an inane comment.

  11. Statgeek – remind me what did andelson actually.
    As I recall he borrowed money off a friend to bring a mortgage within reach and did not declare it to the Building Society.
    Not the same as fiddling £40k on expenses is it.

    For the second resignation he always denied the charge but ‘stepped down to avoid further embarrasment’ for the Government and was sunsequently completely cleared.

    He is undoubtedly slippery and is not my favourite Labour politcian by a long way but as far as i am aware he never fiddled a penny.

  12. With respect Nick-you are the last person I would accept assurances from about Civil Service political impartiality :-)

    I also question work ethic in the modern civil service, and believe they have lost sight of two important stakeholders in their employment-the taxpayer, and the customers & clients.

    Just an opinion of course-perhaps I spend too much time reading leftwing & anti-government opinions posted on blogs & websites during the so-called working day.

  13. “with respect”?

    pah

  14. And pah again.

    “The last person” is equally risible – for fairly obvious reasons of logic.

  15. Anyway “err…. with respect” shows much less respect if that’s what one wishes to convey as it adds the implication that t.he person you don’t really respect is also an utter idiot

  16. I tried to be as respectful as possible your entitlement to your views as a private individual.

    But suit yourself Nick .

    If “without respect “-or anything else- is your preference, you decide.

  17. Goodness knows what joe public will make of DC’s announcement today about the planning rules being scrapped for twelve months. Sounds attractive – cut red tape, boost the economy – but removing the checks on developments might lead to concficst with neighbours. In any case, not all conservatories or extension need planning permission – some can be done under building regs.

    There is also the prospect of green belt development occurring.

  18. concficst = conflict

  19. Mike N

    I often write in on planning here. Hardly anyone is interested in planning until it affects them. In my area (and i note, increasingly, others) many neighbourly rows have been started as a result of localism and a loosening of local authorities’ willingness to uphold Development Plan policies.

    If this continues, the political parties who will get the brickbats will be those who are perceived to be responsible.

    The irony, as in all political mood music, is that some of those complaining will forget that they thought localism and ‘do your own thing’ seemed attractive at the time but forgot that meant that others would be doing it too.

  20. Craig

    I see last night’s was one of those rare polls that show Respect at 1%.

    Due, by the look of it, to ONE poll respondant (male, under 25, voted Lib Dem in 2010, lives in London).

  21. Walked past the Scottish parliament today and saw all the Lib/Dem MSP’S get into a mini.

    2 in the front and 3 in the back. :)

  22. Amber

    “I am having visions of folks having a few pints in England driving half way home, leaving their car at the border, & walking the rest of the way.”

    I bet that happens all the time in Ireland :-) – 50 ml in Eire, 80 ml in NI. :-)

  23. Obviously DC has decided to “go right”, or at least have rightish MP’s in positions of power, whether they actually collectively do anything more right wing with the same PM is another matter. Possibly it’s enough to entice a few uncertain UKIPers back. Those more convinced will need action not words on Europe and Immigration, etc, and I doubt they will ever get it.

    The loosening of planning laws seems a little desperate to me. Oftentimes at the moment it is money that’s needed, not permission from the authorities to get a building built. And one man’s extension is another’s eyesore or light/view blocker.

    I see NC seems to be uncertain about the heathrow 3rd runway. This will hardly help him or the LD’s, although I feel whatever happens now, they cannot lose much more support beyond the diehards.

  24. OLD NAT.
    Good Evening to you.

    Dear Me. EIRE is a term no longer used.

    The Republic of Ireland has been in existence since 1949 ish.

    A mad start to the school year, but 35th year of teaching is off to a good start here in Dorset.

  25. @KeithP
    “The loosening of planning laws seems a little desperate to me. Oftentimes at the moment it is money that’s needed, not permission from the authorities to get a building built. And one man’s extension is another’s eyesore or light/view blocker.”
    ———————-
    Agreed. I caught part of an interview on BBC in which a senior Kent councillor (leader?) blamed delay in housebuilding on the Highways Agency who insisted on provision of new roads to meet HA (red tape?} requirements to accompany the housebuilding. So it seems the red tape delays are not all the fault of town halls.

    Errr – now who controls the Highways Agency ?

  26. CHRISLANE1945

    “Irish government nameplates at meetings of the European Union have borne both Éire and Ireland, following the adoption of Irish as a working language of the European Union.” (Apologies – that’s from Wiki :-( )

    I do accept that eire is a misspelling (which can have another meaning) but, alas, I have to copy and paste Éire to include the accent, and I can be lazy!

    Just as those from the Republic drinking in NI are probably too lazy to walk home from the border, just because the Brits allow them to drink too much and still drive!.

  27. Gary Gibbon reports that the PM has promoted one cabinet member who is associated not only with rebellions over the EU referendum and HoL reform, but also with allies on the backbenches who have ‘contingency plans’ for Cameron’s departure, and a possible ‘challenge’ after the local elections next May. (The same people who started the rumblings prior to last year’s veto.)

    Who is he talking about?

    ~~

    The iplayer/parliament/C-Span coverage of last night’s Democratic Convention proceedings is worth watching imo.

    Kamala Harris, Christina Saralegui… all the way to Bill Clinton. Too many to mention, but their engagement with, and enthusiasm for the political process is quite infectious.

  28. @Mike N
    “removing the checks on developments might lead to concficst with neighbours”
    Is there anything in the relaxed planning laws to prevent disgruntled homeowners from blowing dust off the plans and implementing all of the terrible projects that been refused permission over the last few years? For every happy voting household there could be several p***ed off neighbours.

  29. Whilst still mourning Worcestershire’s almost certain relegation, and at the same time having to endure the sight of Birminghamshire clinching the title on the sacred turf of New Road, I’ve only just caught up with the latest YouGov poll showing the reappearance of that delectable 12% Labour lead. What on earth are we to make of it all? The difference between the size of lead (6 or 12%) seems to be totally down to Labour’s VI, with the Tory vote continuing to dead-cat bounce in the low 30s range. 40% for Labour one day, 45% the next; variation that seems outside normal MOE margins, yet unexplainable by any obvious political events.

    We are almost at the halfway mark in this Parliament now so I suppose large leads for the opposition can be partly explained away by the legendary “mid-term blues”, but I still think the March budget changed the political weather quite significantly. Six months in from that Osbornian calamity, I’m as convinced now as I was then that it will have long-term ramifications for the coalition. It was an event that may well have “re-toxified” the Conservative brand and reminded voters of why they had turned their backs on the party for nigh on 20 years.

  30. @Howard

    I’ve never been afflicted by NIMBYism. However, it really,does depend what you mean by localism.

    Bromley Council wants to revamp much of the area from Bromley,South Station to the pedestrianised High Street area, demolishing in the process scores of residential properties including my entire road, to make way for MORE commercial developments.

    Almost all local residents are opposed, but the council, none of whom live in,the town centre, are ploughing on regardless. They are not even following proper notification procedures or their own policies. Indeed, it is the decision makers who are the NIMBYs. We already have the largest shopping/commercial area locally.

    So to me, the loosening of planning regulations is just a joke.

    You will however be pleased to hear that the LDs locally are actively opposed to the plans. Mind you, the local LD IS local. Unlike the Tories.

  31. ‘Dear Me. EIRE is a term no longer used.
    The Republic of Ireland has been in existence since 1949 ish.’

    Two years ago I heard someone seriously ask for a parcel to go to ‘Southern Ireland’; and the person was my age, akoy I’m not youmg, nut I’m not that old.

    I did think that if I was Irish I would seriously get upset, rather then merely horrified. Who said the Empire was dead…

  32. OLD NAT.
    Thanks for the post!! (smiley face!)

    CROSSBAT 11.
    Good post, thank you. On reading your post, due to having three glasses of very good red wine inside me to celebrate third daughter’s entry to a Great University, I have to confess that I initially read your ‘re toxified’as: re- something else.

    As you said recently we must all calm down, but how credible is YG, …. especially with the outliers on you know who?

  33. RAF

    My point is that the planning system, where national principles are (or used to be) found in the national planning policies and then interpreted at a more local level a a sort of cascade through considered Local Plan Inquiries – were like justice, blindfolded as to the petty infighting at local level between those trying to make a fast buck and those seeking to protect the environment or their very localised environment. next door.

    So while not knowing about your own particular local issue, I think there will be a huge effect on voters’ perceptions according to who they choose to blame for the ‘Wild West ‘ version of planning that is about to unfold.

  34. @Howard

    I generally agree. But what do local authorities do anymore? Much of their education remit has been clipped, libraries and leisure facilities sold, waste management sold, housing stock sold or taken on by private management agents and now planning…

  35. @RAF

    They take the blame for “Political decisions to cut local services”.

  36. RAF
    It may amuse you that a few years ago, my LA (of which i was a Member) wanted a logo. One of my colleagues suggested (as an alternative to the pompous nonsense put forward by officers) – :

    ‘For our sins, we empty your bins’.

  37. @Howard

    Indeed it does amuse me :)

  38. Interesting moves from the ECB. Markets love the apparently unlimited bond buying, especially as the ECB has foresaken senior lender status, meaning that this move shouldn’t close off normal lending sources as other previous bailouts have.

    Theoretically, this is the end of the Euro crisis, no countries will leave the Eurozone, and everything will be perfect. But this is a Euro bail out – the good news only lasts for weeks or days.

    The ECB will require conditions, so this is where the next zone of crisis will probably emerge. The ECB has also said that, in order for the scheme to remain legal, bond purchases will be balanced by withdrawals elsewhere in the financial system. No one seems to know what these will be and where they will occur.

    I think I’ll wait a week or two before I judge this one.

  39. alec

    Haven’t they also said that bond buy-outs are dependent upon cuts and selling off public assets?

  40. @ RAF

    …demolishing in the process scores of residential properties including my entire road…
    ————————-
    OMG, that’s terrible! Have they proposed a viable alternative that you could think about accepting or do you have this horrible proposal just hanging over you?
    8-)

  41. @Alec

    “Where the policy will matter is if people wanted to build poorly designed and inappropriate extensions – ones that would otherwise be rejected. Building an economic renaissance on badly designed buildings isn’t a particularly bright idea, in my view.”

    Good to see another poster other than @Howard with a grasp of what ‘local planning’ actually means at the coal face (rather than the lazy ‘red tape’ polemical guff).

    The other ‘key’ plank of the planning element of today’s “growth statement” was to delete the requirement for developers to build homes for affordable rent via social landlords and for affordable purchase via mechanisms such as shared equity. Before this deletion can be applied there is supposed to be a ‘test’ to prove that the requirement to build these units for the affordable/ social sector (rather than private purchase and buy-to-let sector) is the single factor stalling a particular development. It does not take much imagination to predict that some of our less scrupulous comrades in the construction sector will be able to get around that paper tiger.

    If economic growth soars and house construction hits tens of thousands above trend by 2015 it will be because the world economy has gone into a rapid upswing combined with the government here spending money directly (rather than making guarantees to the private sectors investments) in mega infrastructure- with the concomitant confidence, employment and household income increases that this would imbue.

    If this rosy pictures occurs, the reforms to planning that this government have introduced (abolition of the regional tier in autumn 2010, localism and neighbourhood planning in 2011; NPPF in March 2012 and ‘reform and deregulation’ today) will not have meant diddly squat. They are merely a mixture of pure window dressing- straight out of the ‘look we ARE doing something’ playbook; and are- like the reshuffle- to appease the Tory right (aside from when their inevitable conclusions start impacting these very MPs leafy south east constituencies)!

    Interestingly the reforms to planning and economic regeneration at the English city-regional level (the SNR) that Brown was pushing through at the time he was kicked out, were much more significant and much more likely to boost urban centres as ‘engines of growth’ then the sum total of every ‘reform’ to planning, housing and regeneration that this government has introduced since 2010.

  42. NICKP I have a theory that the Government are bluffing. They are waiting for the economy to recover by itself and in the meantime they will cut spending and make up pretend and ludicrous policies that have no chance of affecting growth.

    Think you have hit the nail on the head there….the coalition assumed growth would happen reagrdless of what they did. This theory makes sense of the last 2 1/2 years. Cant think of any other explanation of their policies.

  43. The vast majority of unpopular permissive planning decisions are henceforth, rightly or wrongly, likely to be interpreted as being a consequence of the relaxation of planning controls. I can’t see where the votes are in that.

    As a case in point, personally, on the back of today’s announcement, I’m worried about whether next door’s residential home will make yet another attempt at extensive back building, and also whether the landlord over the back will try again to extend the 1st floor of their property back sufficiently to overlook our back garden. Both were proposals that the local authority deemed inappropriate, but will they still have the powers to refuse henceforth?

    The problem is that GDP is measured in economic activity, ignoring whether that activity has adverse impacts on third parties, which is what local planning is all about. Planning gain (s106) is at least a means of economic recovery of such external consequences, via de facto taxation, but that also seems to have bit the dust today. I’d previously had some hope in the Government’s attempts to develop wider measures of well being to set against GDP, but on the back of today’s announcements that all seems to have disappeared up the chimney.

  44. Oakeshott said: “Liberal Democrats will welcome support for the Liberal Democrat manifesto commitment to a mansion tax wherever it comes from, even from Ed Balls the prodigal son. But the wealth gap widened to a yawning chasm in his years at the Treasury and he wouldn’t say boo to a non-dom goose.”
    ————————
    I am a fan of Ed’s but this is just too ‘good’ a put down by LD Oakeshott not to share. :-)

  45. @Amber

    Sorry, I couldn’t copy across your message.

    I’m in the fortunate position of currently being a tenant, many on the road are not. According to the Loca Area Action Plan, we’re currently looking at 2015.

    By the way, I noticed you didn’t mention anything about Lab registering 45% in tonight’s YG poll :)

  46. http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/62pwr9guby/YouGov-Top25%20(2).pdf

    YouGov moves up the list of top 25 global research companies</b.

    "The Honomichl Global Top 25 Report recognised YouGov for its robust increase in revenues
    and impressive international expansion in recent years"

    Mmm Quality of research rates no mention – but YG makes lots of cash. A strange concept of "research"!

  47. Oops

  48. RAF

    Something to do with 0% of under 25s with an SNP/PC VI perhaps?

    re YG variations dependent on a differential pattern of clubbing in different parts of the UK? (Seems as good a theory of oscillation in YG polls as others I’ve seen :-) )

  49. “re” = “Are”

  50. Damn!

    Scotland will continue to be a rich economy, and this is just an additional bonus – and I was so looking forward to Osborne being right. :-)

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-news/top-stories/bp-s-pioneering-technique-will-unlock-6bn-barrels-of-north-sea-oil-1-2509353

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