This morning’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%. This is the second YouGov poll in a space of a week to show the Labour lead down to six points. After yesterday’s YouGov poll showed a Labour lead back to eleven points following the six point lead at the weekend I had rather dismissed the YouGov/Sunday Times poll as just an outlier. This poll suggests there may be more to it.

Of course all the YouGov polls over the last week or two have had the Conservatives within two points of 33% and the Labour party within two points of 42%. While two six point leads after months of nine to ten points leads is rather a big co-incidence, strictly speaking there isn’t actually anything that couldn’t be explained by normal sample variation. Let’s wait and see a bit longer before looking for explanations.

There is also a new Opinium poll out today which has figures of CON 31%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 9%(-1). There is certainly no sign of a narrowing Labour lead there.

167 Responses to “New YouGov and Opinium polls”

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  1. UFOs do exist after all. At least, when this is over they’ll start flying again.

  2. @ RAF

    By the way, I noticed you didn’t mention anything about Lab registering 45% in tonight’s YG poll
    I’m glad that you aren’t upset about that planning thing but that you do care about your neighbours who are unhappy about it.

    On the 45%, I am not too concerned now about Labour hitting the dizzy heights of >45%; Labour just need to get a lock on ‘no’ to the boundary changes & I think a 6% lead will be ample. I’ll do my cartwheels when the BCs are officially abandoned or voted down. :-)

  3. Amber

    ” I’ll do my cartwheels when the BCs are officially abandoned or voted down.”

    That would suggest that you have an attitude similar to the old Ulster Unionists – changes to constituencies that might benefit other parties are “a bad thing” regardless of other factors.

    Sad for you that the franchise for Burgh constituencies isn’t as it was pre-1832. :-)

  4. @ Old Nat

    …changes to constituencies that might benefit other parties are “a bad thing” regardless of other factors.
    Not at all. If you recall, I was amongst the 1st people in the country to do the analysis which showed that the boundary changes would be less advantageous for the Tories than it first appeared; & that LD would take heavy losses: Little yellow islands in a sea of red & blue.

    I have taken into consideration the other factors. I do not think the boundary changes wrought by the current legislation are workable or fair.

  5. @Amber

    Re: planning

    Oh, I am strongly against the proposals for my own sake to. It’s a beautiful place in a very good location. It’s just that others having bought their places are in a more difficult position.

    Re: BC

    I favour a more proportional system (STV) where individual constutuency boundaries would be far less relevant.

  6. @Phil

    Here’s hoping for their success.

    “Where the policy will matter is if people wanted to build poorly designed and inappropriate extensions – ones that would otherwise be rejected. Building an economic renaissance on badly designed buildings isn’t a particularly bright idea, in my view.”
    Tell me if I am wrong, but removal of planning restraints on extensions up to 8 metres is sufficient for building second houses, not a conservatories. This is to drive a coach and horses through the planning legislation and related environmental and social safeguard systems, and goes far beyond a measure to stimulate the economy.

  8. Well, there’s the 45% for Lab. Doesn’t mean much by itself.

    Will Com slip back to 31% or will the rightward shift ease them back toward 36%?

    Will we see a Lab 46%? Will both main parties see an increase as things get polarised?

    Maybe Con 36% Lab 46% LD 8%?

    Or the Lab dream (for now) of Con 31 Lab 46 LD 7?

    Oh, the excitement!

    Can we have our 10 o clock announcements back, AW?

  9. Nick – I presume you are referring to yesterdays 45% or is today’s out yet?

  10. The problem is not boundary changes…

    By all accounts cutting the number of MPs to 600 was one of those snap decisions which was made in haste as part of the coalition agreement. 600 was not in either party’s manifesto and was not a halfway house between their positions – which to be frank – always looked like a populist measures clinging to the coattails of the expenses crisis.

    As the constitutional affairs committee concluded, no considerstion had been given to how the changes would affect the function of an MP relative to constituents or the executive.

    Sweeping away balancing considerations which the Boundary Commission had always previously taken into account was another a misjudgement imo.

  11. No poll results ?

  12. @Chordata

    “No poll results ?”

    I’m presuming that the results of YouGov’s Thursday’s poll should be in the public domain by now. Wednesday’s poll was published on the YouGov website yesterday morning at 6.00am. There’s nothing there now, so maybe there wasn’t a poll conducted on Thursday for some reason.

    Or are there other machinations going on within YouGov that are preventing them publishing the results. Anthony, we need to be told!!

  13. Maybe the new poll is big news? 15 point lead? Con VI collapse? UKIP in 2nd?

  14. Aaargh deprived of my morning fix!

    I wonder if there is some sort of technical problem. Yesterday’s sample size was a bit lower than normal (around 1500 rather than 1700) so there might be some problem with getting responses.

  15. @crossbat11 – ” …machinations going on within YouGov”

    It’s execptional for a polling company to be reporting five times every week.

    There has been some interesting testimony from former News International execs about the importance of mirroring the views of the readership… I’m guessing that was part of the reason for awarding YouGov the contract.

    Are YouGov results reported as a matter of course in the Sun?
    Possibly not, but the other survey results which go beyond basic VI will be informing editorial policy one would think.

  16. Think YouGov are on an office away day down to Southend or other essex resort. Better than sitting in an office in London, on one of the nicest days of the summer.

    You can just see Anthony sitting on a deckchair with a knotted hankerchief on, eating a pot of jellied eels !

    Only joking by the way !

    Or Labours lead is showing at 15% and they are having trouble explaning to The Sun, about sample errors which may have distorted the result.

  17. Lab 45%, Con 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 6%, APP -38%

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