This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%. A nine point lead today, but YouGov have shown three twelve point Labour leads over the last week, so the underlying average appears to be creeping upwards.
I’m always somewhat wary of overanalysing small changes in the polls. There is, after all, not much difference between a couple of consecutive polls at the top of the margin of error (particularly either side of a bank holiday weekend) and a genuine movement in opinion. Still, it is certainly worth keeping an eye on, especially as the silly season ends and we get back into politics as usual.