This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%. A nine point lead today, but YouGov have shown three twelve point Labour leads over the last week, so the underlying average appears to be creeping upwards.

I’m always somewhat wary of overanalysing small changes in the polls. There is, after all, not much difference between a couple of consecutive polls at the top of the margin of error (particularly either side of a bank holiday weekend) and a genuine movement in opinion. Still, it is certainly worth keeping an eye on, especially as the silly season ends and we get back into politics as usual.


114 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 42, LD 10, UKIP 8”

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  1. @ Martyn

    As Anthony says, no it’s not me. I’ve got a pretty comprehensive collection of general election nights on DVD (all the way through from 1959 until 2010, with only October 1974 and 2001 missing) so have little use for YouTube in that regard.

    My own view is that the best coverage of all was 1970, but then I’m biased in favour of Ted Heath.

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  2. Oswald,many thanks for the link.I believe thar RD was one of the new
    Elizabethans or whatever that series is called.Such a tragic life but also such
    Enjoyment of it.We happened to be browsing in Hay on Wye recently and I
    Found the RD cookbook that he wrote with his wife Liccy ,just before he died.
    It is brilliant,full of wonderful recipes,anecdotes and insights into their life at
    Gypsy house.All their family and friends contribute to it.Highly recommended
    Even if you cannot cook,
    Regards Ann.

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  3. @Anthony

    Thank you.

    @SoCalLib

    Thank you.

    @RobinHood

    Seriously, if you can and if you have the time, shove them on YouTube

    Regards, Martyn

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  4. @Robin Hood

    with 2001 you’re not missing anything exciting. It’s a sort of “static landslide”. It’s also the first one I watched a lot of since 1992.

    I have only seen snippets of October 1974 and 1970. Fascinating to see more.

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  5. @ Martyn

    You’re welcome.

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  6. YouGov
    Lab 41, Con 35, Lib 9
    Approval -36

    Approval -
    Cameron -26 (nc)
    Miliband -29 (-5)
    Clegg -56 (+1)

    Lots of questions about the economic situation and solutions – and quite a few about Clegg’s leadership.
    The pressure on Clegg seems to be building.

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  7. HOWARD
    “I always see the Daily Mail as a magazine for line dancers. Surely all fox trotters are dead now?”
    In fact – I assure you as a signed-up practitioner (climbed down from the Gods at the Albert Hall with Birkbeck chums to gate crash Chelseas Arts Ball and dance to Joe Loss and Edmundo Ros, 1953, I think) it was the adoption of quick-step quarter turn in jive and disco-dancing that started the rot.
    See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGUEyZshBgE for Loss playing on the QE, including superb one-liner from a free-loading Alan Whicker.

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  8. Big swing from Lab to Tory? Within normal variance of 9? An outlier?

    These and other questions will be (partially) answered in Monday’s episode of YouGov.

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  9. It is several months with YG since either the Tories have been above 35 or Labour below 40.
    Suggests a fairly static picture of a lead around 9 or 10 but moe giving the odd 6 or 14 and/or an occassional short term point or 2 difference due to a short term factor.
    Conferences will produce the usual fluctuations and Labour should win Corby and may get a temporary boost but but unless something dramatic happens I expect we will be back in this position by the end of November
    Perhaps (in a bizarrly satisfying way for them after years being peripheral) the LD conference has the biggest potential to be interesting.

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  10. Tories already pushing the “Labour lead falls to 6! Miliband should be doing better!”
    Perhaps AW needs to remind people of how not to report polls?

    Bet it feels like bashing your head against a brick wall.

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  11. Todays YG is definitely an outlier.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/0g6ojop7sa/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-3108-020912_HTcorrected.pdf

    When you look at the femaie Tory VI equal wiith Labour on 40%, it is a bit odd. They have typically been showing the Tories in the low 30′s. The rest of the data appears normal, so I have no idea why this polling made females respond differently. Does not make any sense.

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  12. Time of the month?

    (leaves hurriedly)

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  13. @nickp

    “Time of the month?

    (leaves hurriedly)”

    Perhaps women have read that if they say they vote Tory, they are more likely to meet a rich man.

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  14. Banana skin alert.

    Osbourne talking about taking lumps out of the greenbelt. Given the reaction to the privatisation of the forests this may not be a good move…

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