Last night’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%.

There is also a new TNS BMRB poll out with topline voting intention figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 40%(-2), LD 11%(+1), Others 18%(+2). Changes are from their last poll a week ago. Up to now TNS have been conducting voting intention polls every month or so, but I understand this is the start of a shift to regular weekly polls.


193 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. HOWARD

    @”On foreign undergraduates, an amazing coincidence such a measure is reported a month prior to party conferences?”

    Only if you are not familiar with the goings on at LMU , which have been providing news for some time.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/9508660/London-Met-A-history-of-controversy.html

  2. @ Billy Bob

    “I’m also quite liking Cenk Uygur on The Young Turks, not so funny maybe, but engaging nonetheless.

    Here he is on Chris Christie’s 2016 bid (Ann Romney “It’s all about love”… Christie “Don’t gimme that love stuff, it’s all about repect”:”

    I like that guy too even though I don’t watch Cenk Uygur all that much. I just watched it and he’s absolutely right. The whole thing is a racist appeal and it’s appallingly based on something they’ve made up.

    There’s an old saying that if you’re a lawyer and you go into court with a case where your facts are bad, argue the law; if the law is not on your side, argue the facts; and if neither the facts nor the law favor you, pound your fist on the table. Mitt Romney has come up with a new one here, if the facts don’t fit your case, just make up a brand new fact pattern! In a court, he’d be probably be held in contempt and reffered to Bar Counsel for ethics violations. But this being an election campaign, probably helps him shore up his base.

    As for Chris Christie, that guy is a surly, nasty, angry, off-turning personality. I honestly fail to see his big appeal. He needs a nutritionist, a personal trainer, a psycho therapist, and perhaps a gastric bypass doctor….not a political convention. My only worry with him is the larger his media profile is, the more people abroad who have never been to the United States look at him on tv and think that all Americans are like that.

    The consensus btw is that Ann Romney’s speech was good. I was totally turned off by it but I’m not exactly her target audience.

  3. Carfew

    Thank you for you reply on the previous thread, summarised above. As far as ‘shy’ voters goes I’m sure that there are some who feel like that, but I suspect that the vast majority saying “Don’t Know” or refusing or even saying they won’t vote are genuinely uncertain about what they will do. The “shy” thing may have been stronger when interviewing was done face to face and may still be stronger with telephone polls than on-line, but people are both less emotionally attached to their political identity than they once were and possibly more willing to be open about personal opinions.

    In any case the motivation may be a distraction. The adjustment that ICM and others make to reallocate back is based on their belief that people are more likely to go back to where they came from, whether they know it now or not. The same thing presumably lies behind the ICM downgrading of intentions of those who didn’t vote last time – past behaviour as a predictor of future.

    To complicate matters there may also be a ‘retro-shyness’ factor – people who forget or are unwilling to admit who they voted for last time[1]. There may be ways of compensating for this but it might be difficult to separate out from normal weighting.

    [1] YouGov have less of a problem with this as they asked their panelists how they voted at the time of the last election, so there was less time for repenting. But even then I suspect some people replied how they would have voted if they had bothered or not been left off the register. And of course as new people join the panel they only give the information at that point, so that advantage gradually weakens.

  4. @Billy Bob
    Alexsander the meerkat? Or do you mean our endangered red squirrel?

  5. Immigration back in the news today, with the gov trying to claim some kind of success with reductiion in net migration.

    I’ve consistently contended that immigration is a double-edged sword/issue.

    And of course at moments of despair / desperation the gov issues some new immgration policy / statement to recover lost ground.

    There is a good article on immigration by Sarah Mulley on the G spot.

  6. @Paul Croft

    The whole MPs expenses scandal was quite odd in many ways. It appeared that if you got your apology in early, and also paid back some of the money that you had dubiously claimed, then you could turn your venality into a virtue. It also helped if what you’d done could be fitted into the arcane and opaque rules that applied. However, if, foolishly as it transpired, you tried to brazen it out, you were more likely to be de-selected as an MP and/or prosecuted. From what I could see, the difference between what was deemed prosecutable and what was seen to be merely inadvisable, was minuscule. David Laws was a classic case of someone who traversed this divide very skilfully, although, of course, there were many others too, from all parties.

    Cameron, then Leader of the Opposition, handled it all very skilfully and, in so doing, allowed, amongst many others, leading Tories like Michael Gove to ride out the storm unscathed.

  7. @ Statgeek

    “Why didn’t he just pay for his ‘live in landlord’ himself? The expenses aspect is just an excuse (imho).”

    Because he’s greedy and saw that all his colleagues were getting lots of nice free stuff through expenses reimbursements. And he decided he might as well take advantage himself.

    My only point is, I think his excuse of why he claimed what he claimed is legitimate at least as it pertains to his own personal reasons (it’s not a legal defense).

  8. @ Nick P

    “I’ve been assuming that Obama is going to be re-elected in November. Anything much changed to make me reconsider that assumption?”

    I wish I had your confidence. Elections are too unpredictable, especially in this day and age. There are a handful of things that concern me.

    1. Romney’s constant lies on welfare and Medicare, repeated over and over again become seen as truthful and take down the President.

    2. All the roadblocks erected to prevent people from voting. Not only will most of the disenfrancised be Democrats but creating chaos and long lines at polling places will ultimately discourage voting by casual and non-excited Obama voters.

    3. The economy is still terrible. Any President with numbers like this would typically lose reelection.

    4. We don’t know what the effect of all the massive super PAC money will be or how much will ultimately get spent against Obama (I think upwards of 1 billion is the fundraising target set by Karl Rove).

    “What was the site where the chances of election was given in percentage terms?”

    You’re not thinking of Nate Silver are you?

  9. @Socal

    What makes you think that Laws was only following the herd (….”saw that all his colleagues were getting lots of nice free stuff…”) rather than leading it? And I also remain of the belief that those personal circumstances with his “landlord” were never more than just a red herring thrown into the mix to distract attention from his culpable behaviour.

    Even though Cabinet reshuffles don’t normally impact much on the popularity of parties, Laws’s much trailed return might just prove the exception.

  10. @Socal
    “The economy is still terrible”

    By comparison to this side of the Atlantic your economy appears to many to be in wonderful shape. But then we don’t have a vote in your election.

  11. @Roger M
    “as new people join the panel they only give the information at that point, so that advantage gradually weakens”

    You may be doing YouGov a disservice because they subsequently weight by party ID rather than past vote. If AW regularly updates the mix of current party identification for the old panellists it would be possible to ensure that the profile of the new joiners were broadly similar to the “correct” weighted party ID profile of older panellists at any point in time, which in turn was originally set to match the pattern of actual declared voting at the GE.

    I don’t know whether this is how YouGov deal with the issue, but it strikes me as being technically possible as a solution to the problem you identify.

    Regardless of that, I take your broader point. And if the “retro-shyness” factor exists, you would expect the two pollsters (YouGov and Angus Reid) that can best overcome the problem by using their 2010 panels to be (correctly) showing larger Labour leads than the remaining pollsters who can’t.

  12. @SoCalLiberal – “… all Americans are like that”

    At times when I was in the grip of that type of stereotypical thinking (during the Reagan/Bush HW years 1981-93) I used to keep reminding myself – this is the country that gave you the Talking Heads – (though I’ve since learned David Byrne was in fact born in Dumbarton).

    In some respects though I think I’d find Christie easier to come to terms with than Ann Romney – I agree she played her part well. The convention does look like a weird stereotype of America, it will be interesting to see if there is an impact on polling over the next week or so… there does seem to have been a closing of Obama’s narrow lead in recent weeks. Romney’s poor favourability has been a block on his chances up to now.

    As part of my homework I’ve been tuning into KAZU 90.3 FM News Talk Radio from Monterey Park. Car Talk, Splendid Table (Angela Kim in ecstacy over a pretzel she ate in Cafe Tomo) etc.

    Their NPR news coverage seems fairly liberal – one commentator seemed to think Ryan suffered from having to follow Condoleezza Rice, who looked more credible all round.

    I found his ‘Obama wants you all on welfare so he can control your minds’ approach was a bit out there, but what do I know?

  13. Colin
    Only if you are not familiar with the goings on at LMU , which have been providing news for some time.

    Indeed, so why not ‘some time’ ago announced? it’s like Clegg suddenly deciding that rich people should pay more tax.

    I await the EM competitive announcement with baited breath. Hold the front page.

    We sprint from the silly season to the phoney season.

  14. @ The Sheep and Billy Bob

    It seems to me that most of the political appeal of the GOP Convention seems to be dedicated to telling the 5’4 man who’s boyhood dreams of playing in the NBA have been dashed that his llife disappointments and frustrations are all the fault of President Obama.

  15. @ SOCAL

    Don’t take this as a put down to all things American. But the level of political debate in the US in the my opinion is pretty awful. They don’t drill down to the actual issues and it is just vacuous political nonsense that does not stand up to any proper scrutiny.

    I am glad that in the UK that we don’t have political advertising and those conventions, which seem more about the presentation of speeches, rather than content.

    I heard yesterday a republican moaning about 1/6th of the US economy being spent on heathcare. Well yes that would be what most countries spend. So what is the big deal ? The point they miss, is that the healthcare professionals and drug companies are ripping them off, in public and private facilities. I am from an Insurance background and I came across a UK citizen who had a bad motorcycle accident in the states. The hospital bill was over $400k and in the end they died, so the Insurers also had to pick up the repatriation costs. For most Travel Insurances that include US travel, they are more expensive, as the medical costs are higher. So who is taking on the medical professionals for earning too much ?

    Rant over. But I hate politics when it becomes a presentational argument, rather than a debate on the specifics of issues.

  16. @ Phil

    “By comparison to this side of the Atlantic your economy appears to many to be in wonderful shape. But then we don’t have a vote in your election.”

    Yeah, that’s the ironic thing isn’t it? We’re muddling along but at least we’re muddling forward and not falling backwards (I’ve heard even China is having economic problems now).

    I almost wish you did have a vote in our elections (but the public smackdowns of David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and Jeremy Hunt will have to suffice).

    @ Billy Bob

    “In some respects though I think I’d find Christie easier to come to terms with than Ann Romney – I agree she played her part well. The convention does look like a weird stereotype of America, it will be interesting to see if there is an impact on polling over the next week or so… there does seem to have been a closing of Obama’s narrow lead in recent weeks. Romney’s poor favourability has been a block on his chances up to now.”

    Well Ann Romney gave a speech that I thought was sexist and I thought exuded her better than thou bourgie b*tch attitudes. It was also pandering (what was with that “I love you women!” line?). There’s just something so unlikeable about her (to me anyway, others found her charming).

    I would think that Chris Christie would be a great recruitment tool for Al Queda operatives. I’m glad to say most Americans (well most Americans not living in the deep south) don’t look like him. I’m sensitive to critiques of his weight but he kinda invites it when he lectures the rest of us about “personal responsibility.”

    “At times when I was in the grip of that type of stereotypical thinking (during the Reagan/Bush HW years 1981-93) I used to keep reminding myself – this is the country that gave you the Talking Heads – (though I’ve since learned David Byrne was in fact born in Dumbarton).”

    Lol. We also gave you Motown didn’t we?

    “Their NPR news coverage seems fairly liberal – one commentator seemed to think Ryan suffered from having to follow Condoleezza Rice, who looked more credible all round.

    I found his ‘Obama wants you all on welfare so he can control your minds’ approach was a bit out there, but what do I know?”

    I’ve been muting most of the GOP speeches including Paul Ryan’s. It’ll just raise my blood pressure. Their approach is to say and/or do anything to win. It’s not healthy for anyone. I think though that that sort of contempt and raw hatred for Obama will ultimately be a turnoff.

  17. @ R Huckle

    “Don’t take this as a put down to all things American. But the level of political debate in the US in the my opinion is pretty awful. They don’t drill down to the actual issues and it is just vacuous political nonsense that does not stand up to any proper scrutiny.

    I am glad that in the UK that we don’t have political advertising and those conventions, which seem more about the presentation of speeches, rather than content.

    I heard yesterday a republican moaning about 1/6th of the US economy being spent on heathcare. Well yes that would be what most countries spend. So what is the big deal ? The point they miss, is that the healthcare professionals and drug companies are ripping them off, in public and private facilities. I am from an Insurance background and I came across a UK citizen who had a bad motorcycle accident in the states. The hospital bill was over $400k and in the end they died, so the Insurers also had to pick up the repatriation costs. For most Travel Insurances that include US travel, they are more expensive, as the medical costs are higher. So who is taking on the medical professionals for earning too much ?

    Rant over. But I hate politics when it becomes a presentational argument, rather than a debate on the specifics of issues.”

    No offense taken. I don’t consider it a put down at all but an accurate description of the facts. Most of it is a lot of generalities, this year moreso than ever.

    Some of politics has to be a presentation argument and can’t get in depth about specifics of issues. But I think you have to have some specifics. Yes, you can drill it down and condense it down into a soundbyte, that’s fine. And then if people want the excruciating details, they can read them (and politicians and news media should know them when they discuss them) but you have to have something specific.

    As to your point about insurance, I’d love to respond in more substantive detail but I have to run out right now. I will respond later.

  18. I’m always puzzled when the mild stuff I write is “subject to moderation”, even more so when – as with my comments on David Laws – its both in moderation and beibg respeinded to at the same time.

    It would be a great help to know quite why……

  19. Excuse bizarre spelling – now that SHOULD have been moderated.

    I imagined Mrs Romney putting on her make-up and lipstick and thinking:

    “Mmm, that’s rather subtle. I shall leave it like that”

    Did she used to be a Cindy Doll before she grew up?

  20. Roger Mexico
    ‘YouGov have less of a problem with this as they asked their panelists how they voted at the time of the last election, so there was less time for repenting. But even then I suspect some people replied how they would have voted if they had bothered or not been left off the register. And of course as new people join the panel they only give the information at that point, so that advantage gradually weakens.’

    One wonders what the difference is between the ICM voters who are asked how they voted in 2010 (by phone) and the YouGov recording of what they were told at the time.

    YouGov takes no notice, whereas ICM gives it the full treatment.

    How many are liars and how many are dreamers?

  21. I’ve just noticed that my post is thrown into mod. I think it is the word used ‘l*ars’ , used innocently as it happens, so I warn colleagues to do what I have just done to avoid this.

  22. Ah, that must be what it was.

  23. PAUL CROFT

    @”I imagined Mrs Romney putting on her make-up and lipstick and thinking:
    “Mmm, that’s rather subtle. I shall leave it like that”
    Did she used to be a Cindy Doll before she grew up?”

    I can certainly see why you said you are “nicer” & “more sensitive” than me.

    Definitely.

  24. Thanks Col, yer a mate! It was the therapy wot done it.

  25. Tim Montgomerie has gone off Cam a bit.

    “The real shame, a theme to which I’ll return another time, is that Cameron himself is a political tragedy in the making. For a long period the Conservative party had waited for a presentable leader whose motives were broadly trusted or not instantly mistrusted. He started with so many advantages, and remains respected by smarter Labour thinkers. But for reasons that perhaps only a psychologist or decent historian will be able to unravel, it seems that Cameron, a level-headed, well-educated young man, couldn’t get it together when it mattered.”

  26. Apologies, that was Iain Martin a journalist. I retract it as unimportant!

  27. NickP – that said Tim has gone off Cameron quite a bit too!

  28. Will we see a YouGov tonight AW, or is it another morning wait?

  29. I can’t really see why the Tories are losing faith in Cam. Even if he wanted to, he couldn’t suddenly switch to a hard right, anti-Union agenda….and there is no mandate for him to do so.

    If the Tories move to the right for the next election it won’t get them their missing votes. Quite the contrary.

  30. NickP

    Is that the Ian Martin who writes for the BBC political satire “The Thick of It”?

    If so, then he’s the man who got into a twitter spat recently with Test Match Special’s Jonathan Agnew. The notoriously thin-skinned and, in my view, largely humourless Agnew took exception to some of Martin’s fairly harmless mickey-taking, accusing Martin of a “vile tirade”.

    The precious Agnew threw his toys out of the pram and melodramatically announced that he “was quitting Twitter for good”. He returned within hours, probably because his account was besieged by thousands of elderly spinsters from Kent, his core fanbase, demanding that he should return. When he did, a thousand cakes were baked in Kent in gratitude!

    Now, if Joey Barton had threatened to quit Twitter, I’d have been mortified, but I can live happily without Mr Agnew’s hourly thoughts, I must admit!

  31. Con 32%, Lab 44%, LD 9%, UKIP 6%; App -43

    Nobody get over-excited; these are from 7 am today. I think that’s a hat-trick of +12’s for Labour. I’m simply having a wee gloat.
    8-)

  32. CB11:

    If Joey “I’m a man” Barton was hung, drawn and quartered** I don’t think I’d care much – I certainly wouldn’t be “mortified”

    **
    [Just wrote that for Colin – of course I’d be upset….]

  33. Amber;

    First with the late news.

  34. PAUL CROFT
    ( may I call you that ?)

    @”Thanks Col, yer a mate! It was the therapy wot done it.”

    Nah-you musn’t be so modest-that sort of statement flows naturally from your inherent & deep seated charm-with or without therapy.

  35. Amber
    I am not getting over-excited. I quote:from the Indy

    In a news briefing yesterday, Daniel Stern of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, said: “WISE has found a bonanza of black holes in the universe.“

    Puts a new light on my worries for the future (actually of course it’s about the past because what this telescope is looking at happened a wee while ago…….).

  36. CB11

    Seriously?-you actually read the “thoughts” of Red Card Barton, the well known Role Model?

  37. Very interesting to see the internal dynamics of the Tory party starting to be played out in public. The Iain Martin article was really very disparaging, in a way that only ‘advice from friends’ can be.

    Separately, Tim Montgomerie has written an extensive piece for ConHom that shines a very bright light on the rather massive internal frictions that are beginning to appear on a daily basis.

    As much as people might want some Ed on Ed violence, it’s the government parties where the real bloodletting is just below the surface. Clegg is in all kinds of trouble anyway, but Cameron is paying the price for years of ignoring his backbenchers. There will always be ideological differences within every party, but if there is respect between the various wings, accommodations can usually be made.

    What seems clear is that there is precious little respect for Cameron from within his own party, and critically, little fear. I actually think the Tory party is in a great deal of trouble now – a great deal more than the polls suggest.

  38. Alec: As always I think you are spot on. Rocky roads spring to mind. I’d be intrigued to know if they honestly think they have a comeback in them or if they just think “bugger” all the time.

    Col: Yes, OK – you can. And thakjyou for the much-deserved compliments. You were dead right, it wasn’t the therapy – that sort of stuff is far too American for me.

    I totally concur re Joey B: he is what I like to call a “nutcase”. To make it worse he has intellectual pretensions and has also always thought he was a much better footballer than he actually is

  39. NickP
    “I can’t really see why the Tories are losing faith in Cam. Even if he wanted to, he couldn’t suddenly switch to a hard right, anti-Union agenda….and there is no mandate for him to do so.”
    _________________________________________

    And there’s the nub of Cameron’s problem with his backbenchers. He didn’t win the mandate that they trusted him to win.

    Niall Ferguson summed it up in 2009, saying that he (Ferguson) was a convinced Cameroon because he saw in him a right wing mailed fist in the cuddly hug a hoody velvet glove.

    That was the unspoken agreement – at least as the backwoodsmen saw it; keep schtum as Cameron plays the metrosexual, let him deliver the majority, then we can take the Party back.

    They have managed to keep the bile down for a couple of years after that plan collapsed, but now they can keep it down no longer. See this tirade from earlier this week for example, from the Treasurer of the 1922 Comittee.
    http://www.brianbinley.com/2012/08/re-think-first-then-re-shuffle.html

    “The country needs a full-time Prime Minister and not a chamber-maid for a marginal, irrelevant pressure group who have got him in a virtual arm-lock with a constant stream of threats to abandon ship.”

    Such are the slings and arrows of outrageous backbenchers fire at Leaders who didn’t win eminently winnable Elections.

  40. @Paulcroft – thanks, but I’m sure many will disagree.

    To paraphrase Public Enemy, if you stand for nothing, you fall for anything. The Tory party chose an an attractive looking but ultimately empty shell, just at the point when there was a window of opportunity for a more muscular ideology.

  41. PAULCROFT

    If I wasn’t used to such nonsense, I might well choke. However, Johnson is unlikely to influence many in Scotland on the issue.

    What I’m much more interested in is whether supporting Team Europe in the Ryder Cup will lead to Unionists suddenly advocating greater political union with our partners in the EU.

    Team GB used to be regularly humiliated in the Ryder Cup, till we expanded it out to the USA v Europe. “Better Together” actually works in terms of aggregating the maximum number of stars into your team.

    Team Europe would have headed the medal league table at the Olympics. Why, on earth, aren’t the likes of Johnson arguing for that?

    The attempted politicisation of the Jubilee/Olympics etc seems to have been a dismal failure so far.

    However, I’m glad that you are happy to continue to play a guitar that has a mixture of broken and untuned strings. :-)

  42. ALEC.
    Good Evening. I have forgotten how to send links, but here is the BBC website article opening paragraph on sporting rights. April 7 2010. Mr Hunt later overturned the DCMS thinking of the pre 2010 GE era

    Election delays TV sport decision

    Plans to revise the “crown jewels” list of sporting events reserved for free-to-air television have been shelved for now because of the 6 May election.

    The Department of Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) had been due to make a decision in June on the future of events like home Ashes Test series.

    Parliament has until Monday to rush through legislation unlikely to be reversed under a change of government.

    “There will be no announcement in advance of the election,” DCMS said.

    Former Football Association chief David Davies headed a review panel set up by the DCMS which came up with recommendations as to what sports should be added to or dropped from the list of special status events.

  43. @Paul Croft

    I’d spotted that too but resisted the urge. You really are tempting fate. I hope for your sake that he’s switched to a diet of muesli served no earlier than 7am.

  44. PHIL

    “Yield not to temptation,
    For, yielding is sin.” :-)

  45. Do we have a poll tonight?

  46. Tim Montgomerie is well qualified to write articles about Conservative internal divisions, in the same way that Clark Kent is well qualified to write articles about Superman.

    I think I’m right in saying that the Conservative Parliamentary Party aren’t dealing with the present circumstances well. Devoid of a majority, they can only achieve their goals thru compromises and alliances with others. Coalition isn’t the only way to do this – wasn’t it Charles who pointed out that ad-hoc bones thrown to Plaid and the NI Unionists could work as well?. But they don’t play well with others and I suspect their heart isn’t even in the Plaid/UUP approach now.

    I think (correct me if I’m wrong) they’ve given up on 2015. They’re settling in for a nominal battle, a graceful defeat on the old boundaries, a quiet deposition of Cameron post-2015 (“sorry Dave, but…well, you know”), a coalescence around the “Unchained Britain” crowd, then a victory in 2019 echoing 1979.

    I think they’re wrong to do this, and they’ll feel b****y stupid in June 2015, (“we did WHAT!!!”) but I can hardly stop them…

    Regards, Martyn

  47. BARNABY MARDER

    We seem to have a YG poll.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7nhrgtl19s/BodyDislikesMenandWomen.pdf

    “Unsightly tummies and excess weight are the two things both men and women in the UK dislike most
    about their bodies, according to a recent report by YouGov SixthSense.”

    That YG polls in Northern Ireland is news to me though.

  48. OldNat:

    If I had the faintest idea what your comment to me about string and guitars actually MEANT I would be a worried man.

    [As ole Lonnie Donegan used to sing]

  49. Does your chewing gum lose its flavour (on the bedpost overnight)?

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