Last night’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%.

There is also a new TNS BMRB poll out with topline voting intention figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 40%(-2), LD 11%(+1), Others 18%(+2). Changes are from their last poll a week ago. Up to now TNS have been conducting voting intention polls every month or so, but I understand this is the start of a shift to regular weekly polls.


193 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. STATGEEK

    :-)

    The creator has more power than we mere mortals!

  2. @statgeek

    Btw, when you flagged up your charts a few weeks ago, I did get a security warning (as someone else mentioned), however, you will be pleased to know the link is now problem free.

  3. Old Nat.

    You are hardly comparing like with like.

    Brown was CoE (despite being CoS :-) ) during the bubble.
    _____________________________________________

    Be consistent old bean. If you are going to use temporal contextualisation, then take into account that Osborne inherited the CoE role with the ire of a nation (alright, save your breath, TWO nations) aimed at his predecessors and all the hopes pinned on him. And he’s managed a very adroit change in folks’ opinions of him in less than 24 months.

    That takes a special kind of political skill.

    ‘Course,, whilst we’re on the subject of context, we should recall that we MIGHT have been led through the Noughties by a Finance Minister who saw Ireland and Iceland as role models to be emulated…

  4. OldNat:

    “Higher Taste”

    Indeed: I preferred Lemon Tree.

    I’ve already told I am V old. Brought up on Doris Day and Mario Lanza, then the Everly Brothers and have never lost touch with that music.

    Proper melodies and words you can hear [as we old folk say]

  5. LEFTYLAMPTON

    Two nations? What have you got against the other 3/4?

    Contextualisation usually matters in comparisons. Hence, whatever factors you wish to take into account, your comparison lacked usefulness.

    Wouldn’t it have been useful if the the UK had ever had a Finance Minister who saw Norway as a model to be emulated?

    You seem to be repeating your thought processes of selective comparison.

  6. @Billy Bob

    Hopefully those links will be a thing of the past. Watch this space.

  7. PAULCROFT

    Now, if you had said that you had been brought up BY Doris Day and Mario Lanza, that would have been impressive!

  8. But surely Andrew Strauss would be perfect for Corby? After all having a celebrity candidate for the Tories there worked out so well last time.

  9. @ Nick P (from the previous thread)

    “He claimed £950 a month to give to his live-in boyfriend.

    His utterly laughable defence, even more laughably accepted by his HoC peers, was that he “had to claim” to hide his sexuality. Pah. Nobody “has” to claim anything, especially millionaires. Nobody ever got exposed for not claiming something. The absence of a claim is difficult to stumble over.

    If he is brought back, might as well Coulson come back, and let him and Huhne carry on from jail, if they should end up there.”

    I don’t think you can talk about the closet and make judgments about the actions of people in the closet until you have been there yourself. Considering that Laws actually took less money improperly than he would have been entitled to had he claimed properly, I think his defense is one that is sad but eminently reasonable. I won’t judge him for that. I don’t think anyone should.

  10. The Tory Party are writing great gags for Labour: DC is now a posh boy, a chambermaid and either man or mouse.

    Who needs enemies, as they say…

  11. @Roger Mexico

    [2] You will notice that as usual I have managed to end up commenting on a piece on the thread after, or indeed before, it.

    _______________________________________________________________

    @Roger Mexico

    I have replied to your post in the preceding thread on the shy LD thing. Brief summary, updated for this thread…

    Agree there may be reluctant LDs but this does not mean there won’t also be shy ones too. If voters are reluctant to admit to supporting Tory policies, then why wouldn’t it be possible for LD voters be reluctant to admit supporting Tory policies also? Agree that people may indeed vote for the least-worst option but Kellner indicates that the LDs appear now to be considered not the least-worst option but in fact the least-ideal. It may be true that people largely think that LDs have not had much impact on the coalition but this may be considered a negative rather than a positive.

    Regarding what LDs need to do, Kellner shows the difficulty of the challenge. On both ideology and policy, LDs are being hit by a nasty double-whammy that’s hard to resolve: righties tend to see them as lefty and lefties see them as righties. On Branding, they are struggling in 3 different ways: people don’t know what they stand for, they don’t think they’ve been effective in implementing their policies,and they don’t trust them to keep their promises. And of course regarding leadership Clegg is a liability.

    So you can see the scale of the problem LDs are facing and this impacts on the debate about local activism above. Trust is a massive issue in particular, since it is hard to change perceptions on things like policy or ideology without it. You can advocate different policies but not much good if you are not believed. How do LDs correct perceptions of trust before the election, or indeed thereafter (if they are not in power to show they stick to their promises)? Ditching Clegg may indeed be a start…

    Concerning the effectiveness of local campaigning, we can see that it may be effective in countering a loss of trust in a national party when activists manage to make the debate about local issues and local candidates. It bypasses the trust issue. BUT of course in the past LDs did not have much of a negative trust issue to counter so it may have been easier to persuade people to consider local issues ahead of the national.

  12. @ Roger Mexico

    “All of which goes to illustrate the point of Anthony’s brilliant and no doubt universally ignored article on the previous thread, which even someone as picky as me was unable to find a word wrong with (and the perfect graphic as always).[2]”

    Yup. People need to listen to Anthony more. I think though that easy headlines (even ones that are wrong) are what the news media likes these days.

    @ Old Nat

    “Will US Republicans see the encouragement of people to take a bite of the apple at the Paralympics ceremony as a deliberate attack on US fundamental Christianity (for want of a better term)?”

    Probably. I mean they can find a way to get upset about anything. It might be hard to blame on Obama but they’ll figure out a way.

    After all, their entire convention (and much of Romney’s campaign for that matter) seems to be this mix of anger and outrage at Obama for things, many of which Obama didn’t actually say or do.

    The “You didn’t build it” meme which deliberately quotes the President out of context, the talk about the closed GM Janesville plant that actually closed down in December 2008 (before Obama was in office), the deficit clock, the god damn racist welfare attack ad.

    I should know better than to watch any of it as it does nothing but raise my blood pressure.

  13. @ Billy Bob

    “It is no doubt true that by dint of effective organisation Labour did manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of annihilation in 2010.”

    They really did. I mean, they could have and probably should have been defeated by far worse than they were. I almost wish that Joe Biden decides to lift passages from Gordon Brown’s “Come Home to Labour” speech and amend them to his own use becuase it could be highly effective.

  14. 29th August YouGov:

    Con 32%, Lab 44%, LD 9%, UKIP 6%; App -43

    “Labour lead strong”

  15. Socal

    “I don’t think you can talk about the closet and make judgments about the actions of people in the closet until you have been there yourself. Considering that Laws actually took less money improperly than he would have been entitled to had he claimed properly, I think his defense is one that is sad but eminently reasonable. I won’t judge him for that. I don’t think anyone should.”

    So being gay and in the closet puts you beyond judegment?

    The defence that he could have claimed more on his Somerset home only stacks up if you accept that he could have lied about that residence instead and got away with it.

    He didn’t just claim the £950 rent but huge swathes of expenses too.

    I’m sorry but I don’t think being gay has anything to do with it. He was dishonest (even more so than the other bunch of cheating servants of the people in Westminster).

    The question here though is….would it affect voting intention?

    Probably not much. But it will be there, another splash of mud on the once pristine Government boots.

  16. The approval rating of the Government is pretty poor now.

  17. @ Anthony Wells

    You would love this. I’m watching the highly entertaining Herman Cain on the Daily Show. He tells Jon Stewart that polls showing Mitt Romney with an all time low amongst African Americans is inaccurate in his opinion based upon “unscientific, anecdotal evidence” and some other black conservatives he knows.

    Jon Stewart says in response “from what I understand, that’s why they do polls.” :)

  18. @SoCalLiberal

    Fortunately The Daily Show is back on UK TV again, just in time for your Presidential election, so AW will be able to catch up with that this evening (10.30pm Comedy Central Extra)
    .
    I did like their tag line “RNC 2012: the road to Jeb Bush 2016?.

    @AW please delete my other post, presumably in moderation because I can’t spell my email address before my first coffee :-(

  19. @ Nick P

    “So being gay and in the closet puts you beyond judegment?”

    No. I don’t believe though that you can claim that his desire to stay closeted is somehow laughable unless you’ve been in the closet yourself. It doesn’t put him or anyone beyond judgment. I’m just saying that you cannot understand the closet unless you’ve been there.

    “The defence that he could have claimed more on his Somerset home only stacks up if you accept that he could have lied about that residence instead and got away with it.

    He didn’t just claim the £950 rent but huge swathes of expenses too.

    I’m sorry but I don’t think being gay has anything to do with it. He was dishonest (even more so than the other bunch of cheating servants of the people in Westminster).

    The question here though is….would it affect voting intention?

    Probably not much. But it will be there, another splash of mud on the once pristine Government boots.”

    Well what he could have tried to get away with isn’t what he actually tried to get away with.

    I don’t know if it affects polling except to the extent that Cameron looks like he’s not in control and willing to look past the corrupt acts of his friends in the Cabinet.

  20. @howard

    I conclude that if you have total targeting, you can pull off a win anywhere where the population is reasonably comfortably off.

    _____________________________________________________

    But you weren’t hampered by the consequences of the coalition? Haven’t Lib Dems found it a lot harder in local elections recently? Also it doesn’t appear to be the case that Tories raised their game much in response since turnout immediately fell back to 40%.

    Which brings me to something else on the activism thing concerning what you and Henry have said, and relates to the “comfortably off” thing. Henry was concerned with longer term liberal goals like devolving power, more democracy and voting systems etc., and you talked about Clegg’s “journey” and your disatisfaction with the “opprobrium”.

    And one can see that there’s a mismatch. Long-standing LD members and activists tend to be invested in longer-term party goals, like voting reform and so on. Things that may take several elections to achieve. Whereas many voters have more immediate concerns and not unreasonably go by the manifesto and what party leaders say during the election.

    Then when the manifesto gets trashed in the service of longer-term party goals the wider electorate, not on board with the project, may feel rather let down. while to the activists, it’s like “what’s the problem?” The manifesto was not the main issue but an electoral device.

    Consequently it wouldn’t surprise if some LD voters expressed cynicism about the politicans, as you did when you wrote “It seems to me that, as the environmental balances about the choices for airline terminals have not been sufficiently investigated, let alone the basis on which such would be assessed, the decisions must be purely political. in other words they will not be based upon fact or any explanations of which facts are chosen and what weight could be given to them.”

    When it comes down to VI, voters WILL let a party change its mind and go back on what it said. But there has to be a very good reason. In the end, you might resent the opprobrium but LDs are failing to come up with reasons good enough to persuade the electorate. An electorate that may be actually rather more materially affected by coalition’s decisions (compared with the average baby boomer who is protected), and for whom a referendum on the “miserable compromise” of AV is something of a luxury in comparison.

  21. @ The Sheep

    “Fortunately The Daily Show is back on UK TV again, just in time for your Presidential election, so AW will be able to catch up with that this evening (10.30pm Comedy Central Extra)
    .
    I did like their tag line “RNC 2012: the road to Jeb Bush 2016?”

    Jon Stewart was awesome tonight, completely ripping ther whole obnoxious ‘We Built It” theme and chants. Also ripped Reince Preibus.

    I love the tag line. I don’t know who the GOP candidate will be in 2016 but I think Bush’s name is too damaged for Jeb to run. If they go with a first timer, they might go with Senator John Thune (R-SD) or Governor Sam Brownback (R-KS). Bob McDonnel (R-VA) is also a possibility. If they follow their past pattern of nominating those who have ‘earned’ it from past runs, they might select Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee.

    You know, I would have imagined Florida Governor Charlie Crist would be running for President for the GOP just a few years ago. But that ship has certainly sailed. Lol.

    Romney and the GOP has decided to go all Sam Yorty in this election. It’s sickening. I hope it bears the same result as 1973. :)

  22. (dis)approval at -43%.

    This means some 71.5% of joe public disapprove of the coalition, while only 28.5% approve. That’s almost a ratio of 3:1.

    I guess tomorrow’s YG will bring us normality…

    Like some other posters on UKPR, it does however feel as though something has changed in the way this gov and DC are viewed by joe public.

    But now the Paralympics have started, real news will be kept off screens and out of newspapers, so perhaps the fortunes of the gov etc will rise in the next ten days?

  23. Mike

    I thought it was 64% disapprove and 21% approve with the rest (14%) not knowing.

  24. @SoCalLiberal – “Jon Stewart was awesome”

    I’m also quite liking Cenk Uygur on The Young Turks, not so funny maybe, but engaging nonetheless.

    Here he is on Chris Christie’s 2016 bid (Ann Romney “It’s all about love”… Christie “Don’t gimme that love stuff, it’s all about repect”:

    h
    ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl7OjjgiZoI&list=UU1yBKRuGpC1tSM73A0ZjYjQ&index=9&feature=plcp

    And the Romney welfare attack ad:

    h
    ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EklQJIKBFfI

  25. NickP
    Weeeell, technically you’re right. I was ignoring the DKs: (100 – 43 = 57 / 2 = 28.5; thus, 43 + 28.5 = 71.5).

    But 64 to 21 is precisely 3:1.

  26. mike

    I think 63 to 21 would be “precisely” 3:1, but I won’t get picky.

  27. NickP
    :-)
    I need another coffee…

  28. socal

    I’ve been assuming that Obama is going to be re-elected in November. Anything much changed to make me reconsider that assumption?

    What was the site where the chances of election was given in percentage terms?

  29. MIKEN

    @”But now the Paralympics have started, real news will be kept off screens ”

    News from the Paralympics is real news for millions of people.

    News about politicians is not , by definition or general consent , necessarily “real” news.

  30. After all these brilliant, brilliant, brilliant calculations of ratios and percentages surely I’m qualified for the role of Chancellor….!?

  31. Colin

    That’s a fair comment.

  32. Three out of the last four YouGovs giving 12% Labour leads. Hhhmm.

    Apropos my note yesterday, this is a trend that may be worth keeping an eye on.

  33. If Labour were to start talking about things that interest pensioners and what policies they are looking at, that might help secure them a better retirement, then their VI could increase to near 50%. It appears that it is really only the 60 or overs, that are keeping the Tories above 30%.

    I find the topic about why people become more right wing in general, as they get older quite interesting. Some will say that they have seen governments of all varieties and have settled their politics with a party they trust more than the others. Other people will say that as they reach retirement, they become more selfish in looking after any wealth they have and will vote for a party they perceive as being more helpful with this.

    It would be interesting, if when the polling companies ask about VI, they also ask about how they have voted throughout their lifes. The question could be along the lines of. You have indicated a VI of x party. Have you always votes for them. If you have changed the normal party you vote for, at which election did you change your vote ( list of GE’s) .

  34. @R Huckle

    Two thoughts about ageing and political views…

    There is an increased desire for stability – both economically and socially. Older people are less able to cope with rapid change (in general, as always there are exceptions), we see this in technology a lot. Also there is an economic reality – older people have more fixed finances. This tends people towards conservatism (with a small c).

    Of course there is also a significant correlation between wealth and lifespan, so you would expect that demographics with a stronger left wing slant would die off earlier.

  35. @SOCAL

    Why didn’t he just pay for his ‘live in landlord’ himself? The expenses aspect is just an excuse (imho).

  36. @ The Sheep

    Non-Conservative parties generally portray themselves as dynamic / progressive / revolutionary / insert appropriate alternative.

    The reality is that once in government, they are far less inclined to change anything other than that which increases their vote at the next election (all parties are guilty of this) .

    I’m more inclined to believe that it’s more a simple case of how the Conservatives will deal with issues, such as crime (a more important issue as one ages), taxation and some services. The older folk with some wealth place less importance on some of the services that the government might provide, as they have their own transport, or their own garden (no need for parks).

    These people are less reliant on the state, so are less inclined to vote for parties which believe in state-heavy systems.

  37. @THE SHEEP

    “Of course there is also a significant correlation between wealth and lifespan, so you would expect that demographics with a stronger left wing slant would die off earlier.”

    That is definitely true. I think those wealthier tend to have better diets during the lifes and access to better healthcare etc. A relative of mine who was very wealthy and a committed Tory, paid for private heart ops that must have cost hundreds of thousands over the years. Had they not done this, I expect that they would have died about 20 years earlier than they did. I am not sure the NHS would have paid for the many ops they had, which were carried out by top surgeons at the best hospital for heart ops in the country.

    But is not just the wealthy, who may vote Tory as they perceive them more likely to look after their interests. As you say, pensioners with a fixed income, may also be conservative (small c), as they think the Tories manage finances better. Locally, I have often wondered why elderley living in council houses, have had Tory posters in their windows at election time. Even when Labour had introduced the winter fuel allowance, free TV licence, fee bus passes etc, it had not changed they way they voted. This is why the Tories have not touched these benefits, as older voters tend to be more loyal perhaps ?

  38. …which, if I may add, is why many baulk at the idea of the state taking with one hand (higher tax) and giving with the other (credits). It increases reliance on the state, and creates unneeded public sector jobs.

  39. Is it “Guido Fawkes” – ie Paul Staines – stirring up rumours about a certain ex-cricketers standing for tories in Corby? He is Staines is notorious for this sort of thing. Nasty bit of goods. I would have thought the electors of Corby are pretty cheesed off having to go to polls yet again because of one celebrity – Mensch – deciding its “all too much for them”.

  40. @Crossbat11

    Indeed. (12+12+9+12)/4 = 11.25

  41. R Huckle,

    One of the main reasons workers are living a bit longer nowadays is that we have to work in less physically demanding jobs as a whole. Another big reason is that we no longer have large periods of hunger, untreated ill-health and such dangerous working environments interspersed through our working lives. We can thank the benefits system, health and safety laws and the NHS for our relative longevity. For my part, I’ve had to do some very heavy work in the past, but not for too long because the jobs don’t last nowadays but I still have problems from a job with a pneumatic drill some twenty years ago for example. It was far worse for people in heavy industry for decades.

    It’s grafting, physical labour, out in bad weather and with inadequate diet that does for a lot of working class people.

  42. Are the Tories just more relaxed about their timetable, or is it true that they have been hard pressed to find a candidate willing to fill Mensch’s shoes?

    Either way Staines has pulled the plug on his Strauss caper.

    The meeting to select a candidate is variously reported as being scheduled to take place this afternoon or tomorrow.

  43. CROSSBAT11: Thank you for the welcome! Result in Corby will be very interesting; LAB predicted at +15 and winning the constituency. Anything above a five per cent win I think would be a good victory for Ed Miliband. A loss would hurt DC, but for me, how Lib Dem and UKIP do will be fascinating…

  44. I’ve seen recent polls with support for Mitt Romney
    amongst African Americans at 2% and 0% (!) Crikey, it can’t get much worse than that.

    Over here, it looks like the Labour lead is starting to move into double figures again.

  45. Matthew (“close ally of Clegg”) Oakeshott now all but openly calling for Clegg to go. Might things be coming to a head sooner rather than later?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/9508270/Nick-Clegg-must-go-warns-senior-Liberal-Democrat.html

    For good measure, there’s even a voodoo poll button to press….

  46. Whoops, “close ally of Cable”

  47. Carfrew

    Thanks for your full reply. I agree with all you wrote.

    The only point that made me sit up was the ‘you might resent….’ .

    No, indeed I do not. Socal Liberal resents rightly the lies at the Republican Convention and it is understandably raising his blood pressure, but in the end, it’s the voters’ right to believe what they wish and blame whom they wish.

    One can only depend on the Abe Lincoln maxim ‘you can fool some of the people some of the time, etc……….’

    The danger lies when an hysteria takes over (note to self, beware Godwin at this point).

  48. On foreign undergraduates, an amazing coincidence such a measure is reported a month prior to party conferences?

  49. Worth reading if you are interested in the Scottish referendum vote and how it affects UK politics.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-the-stakes-are-unbearably-high-for-salmond-and-cameron-8092590.html

    I think Cameron should work with all parties at Westminster, to come to an agreement, as to the way forward. I have feeling that the SNP will not agree with Labour, Lib Dems or Tories on some of the issues. The SNP want Devo-max option to be included and I think that would have to be discussed in more detail, as to what it means.

    If Labour were to win a GE in 2015 with a small majority and then had to implement legislation for Scottish independence on the back of a yes vote, I think this would be difficult for them. They would of course have to do so, in support of a democratic vote, but they would lose their Scots MP’s at a certain point, possibly losing their majority. What they may therefore do, is delay the actual independence start date until 2020, so the 2015-2020 parliamentary period would not be affected.

  50. @Phil – “Might things be coming to a head sooner rather than later?”

    In the short-term it might up the reshuffle stakes – if as reported Cameron and Clegg had been planning to promote Laws to Quad number four in place of Alexsander.

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