ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian has been published. Topline figures with changes from last month are CON 34%(nc), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 15%(+1), Others 12%(-1). Changes are from ICM’s last poll in July. Full tabs are here.

I am always a little wary of conducting polls over bank holiday weekends – there’s always the worry that it might get a weird and wacky sample because of people travelling or going out. In this case though the poll looks very normal and very much in line with ICM’s recent polling, showing no significant change from their last couple of polls.

ICM tend to show some of the smallest Labour leads of the main pollsters, partly because they re-allocate some of the voters who say don’t know based on polling evidence from past elections that many of these voters are likely to end up voting for the party they voted for at the previous election. In this instance reallocation of don’t knows closed the Labour gap from 9 points to 5 points, and increased reported Lib Dem support by 3 points.

The poll also asked who people would like to see lose their job in the forthcoming reshuffle – 48% of people said they think George Osborne should lose his job. As with other polls on Osborne, the answers to this are quite partisan, with a majority of Labour supporters saying Osborne should go. Even amongst Tory supporters though 29% think that Osborne should be replaced.


91 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 34, LAB 39, LDEM 15”

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  1. George won’t be replaced though and unless they invent competence pills we are stuffed.

    On the bright side that also applies to the Tory party.

  2. Damn you, Paul Croft!

  3. CROSSBAT11

    A couple less “a”s and “h” might have got you there! :-)

  4. ICM’s re-allocation policy would, no doubt, be fine in a period when there is relative stability between the parties, and the only movement comes from floating voters.

    It seems a particularly foolish practice to use in a situation where a party has seen a dramatic rise then fall.

  5. OLDNAT

    Wise words. If the Lib Dems get 15% at the next election, I will eat my hat. Will also be very surpirsed if they get into double figures.

  6. CB11;

    My solicitor will be in touch with yours shortly.

  7. @OldNat

    Yes, indeed, I was a mere consonant away from opening this thread; an honour I’ve been desperate to achieve for some time now.

    @Paul Croft

    I hear a former spinster of this parish, one Mr Eoin Clarke, used to employ some rather impressive solicitors. He may advise you accordingly!

    @Anne in Wales

    I fear there may still be some within the Labour fold, although thankfully not too many these days, who appear to loathe their fellow supporters rather more than their political opponents. It was the silliness of such people that divided the party almost irretrievably in the 70s and 80s. Inane cliched labelling of those they disagree with is usually their hallmark. You can spot them a mile off.

  8. CB11:

    Ah yes, Eoin – I always thought he came over as a really nice bloke.

    Re being first: just don’t allow yourself to sleep, stay alert and then, when there’s a new thread, use my “high-speed-low-content” typing method.

  9. I also think the LD’s will struggling to get much into double figures, unless something drastic changes. That is unless the oft-discussed “clawback” for government parties also applies to 3rd parties in this position. Not seen many real election results or non-ICM polls that support 15% for them, in fact nearly always a lot less.

  10. OldNat – it worked in 1997 when the swing was at least as high as now.

    As for the LDs getting less than 10 – there is absolutely no chance of that. None whatsoever. 15 is probably bang on the money.

  11. @Crossbat11

    “I fear there may still be some within the Labour fold, although thankfully not too many these days, who appear to loathe their fellow supporters rather more than their political opponents.”

    It’s part of the Left’s illustrious heritage to spend more time fighting each other than their opponents. I mean, who do you think the Python’s were satirizing with the various Fronts of Judea? ;)

  12. FAO AW

    Re: Poll Interpretation-Watch

    Just seen some berk from the Indy and a vacuous anchor on BBC News discussing the ICM/Guardian poll. They discussed in detail the fact (sic) that “2/3rds of voters think that Cameron is doing a good job” and mused on why Cameron is a “Teflon Man”.

    AW. Ever felt like packing it all in?

  13. A simplistic method – but I’ll say currently the odds are 17/4 in favour of a Labour victory at the next election. (I don’t actually know how to express betting odds.)

    Based on a clear lead in the polls for the Conservatives of 4 months and a clear lead in the polls of 17 months for Labour, since May 2010.

    27 months gone, with less than 33 months at most before the next election.

    There is no way of knowing what will happen. Parties or party leaders are liable to be affected by events beyond their control which enhance or diminish their credibility… but the longer Labour enjoys a clear lead, the more Conservatives will be reliant on an unusually begnign combination of factors to turn round their fortunes.

  14. BILLY

    I don’t think 1997 is comparable to the current shift in support for the 3rd party. The LD vote was virtually unchanged in 1997 compared with 1992.

    While their was a big swing from Con to Lab in the 90s, that was a shift in attitudes to the main 2 UK parties among floating voters, there wasn’t a rise and drop in support for a particular party.

    New Labour did what it set out to do by marketing itself to “natural” (horrible term, but I can’t think of an alternative) Tory voters.

  15. @All

    “The Dark Knight Rises” did over $7m in the US in this weekend. It is underperforming its predecessor’s “domestic” (US/Canada) sales noticeably, due to the dropoff this summer caused by the Aurora shootings and the Olympics, and I predict it’ll level off at about $440 million in about 4 weeks time. However, it is more popular outside the US than its predecessor, having passed its “foreign” total last weekend. At current rates the foreign total would level off at about $550 million in about 4 weeks time, but it is still to be released in Italy and China: I expect those two territories to reach between $50-$100 million combined, meaning that TDKR will probably match TDK’s take of $1billion or exceed it by about $50million. A very impressive performance but it is hugely overshadowed by the Avengers, which will pass $1.5billion worldwide in the next month.

    Why am I telling you this? To impress on you the power of events in an internationalised world. A single deranged shooter cost Warner Bros at *least* 100 million dollars in lost takings. In the months before May 2015 we have a US presidential election, the 2014 Scottish referendum, the 2014 European elections (I can’t even imagine how the BBC is going to cover that). Although I hold to my prediction of Germany and Greece still in Euro on 1/1/2014, we don’t know if other countries will bail out. And those are just the known unknowns: whatever else is ’round the corner is unknown.

    So, er,…there you go.

    (This post was so much impressive in my head. Unfortunately, I now realise I don’t know how to end it… :-) )

    Slightly embarrassed regards, Martyn

  16. “their” = “there”

    Appropriately, I’m watching a programme on dyslexia!

    I’ve learned to deal with many of the problems of dyslexia – but I’ve never got the hang of the their/there dichotomy.

  17. @Billy Bob

    You got it bang on. If you are telling me that out of 21 events you expect Cons to win 4 times and Lab to win 17 times, then the probability of a Cons victory is 4 divided by 21, which is the implied probability of 0.190476… Converting that to the UK’s fractional odds format gives us, yes, 17/4.

    (I have to do it this way ‘cos I can’t handle fractional odds. Proper gamblers could tell you instantly)

    Regards, Martyn

  18. @Martyn.

    Regards etcetera.

  19. @LEFTY

    “Just seen some berk from the Indy and a vacuous anchor on BBC News discussing the ICM/Guardian poll. They discussed in detail the fact (sic) that “2/3rds of voters think that Cameron is doing a good job” and mused on why Cameron is a “Teflon Man”.”

    Most interesting, considering said newspaper must be aware of other polls, MoE and voodoo polling etc. Perhaps they will focus all their efforts on George Osborne instead. Easier target, with the economic news never being good.

  20. In fact, if we take into account the Indie’s mention of Ed Balls today, perhaps it’s a cunning plan to deflect the attention away from the shadow chancellor. :)

  21. @Billy Bob

    You’re welcome.

    Regards, Martyn

  22. Bizarrely, by coincidence, and using Martyns method…

    17 divided by 21 = 0.80952381

    Electoral Calculus currently rates among the probability of possible outcomes

    Labour majority ~ 81%

    h
    ttp://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

  23. Statgeek

    The discussion was entirely a propos of Osborne’s situation. They were comparing and contrasting the fact that 48% of the ICM pollees want Osborne out with the fact (sic) that 2/3rds think Cameron is doing a good job.

    I momentarily put this mistake down to the pressures of the job of reporting instantaneously on new news .

    Then I thought f*** it!

    If I, with a professional life that has nowt to do with the Westminster Village, can keep up to date with the polls, the very LEAST I can expect from political commentators is that they do the same. Cameron’s poll ratings have been in low dudgeon for at least 5 months. The ICM poll confirms that. (For the record, slightly over 1/3rd think he is going a good job, whilst 50% disagree.). If these clowns are unaware of these facts, then what the bloody hell ate THEY doing in their day jobs?

  24. Take away the reallocation of DK’s and its pretty much bang in line with every other recent poll – Lab +10.

    Lab +5 on ICM is not good for Tories and just a couple, of, points off the high watermark for Lab.

    In other news Citizen Khan was average.

  25. Interesting comment on Greek debt and the -military- complex that Eisenhower warned of.

    http://m.ceip.org/strategiceurope/index.cfm?fa=49185

    “is it really understandable that neither the EU nor NATO has eased the path for Greece to cut its defense budget in a way that would benefit both organizations?”

    And in UK, are they really going to spend all that cash that they don’t have on a similar pointless exercise with Trident?

  26. “-military-” = “-military industrial”

  27. @LeftyLampton

    You said “…If these clowns are unaware of these facts, then what the bloody hell ate THEY doing in their day jobs?…”

    My favourite quote from Anchorman. “…I’m Brick Tamland. People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks. Years later, a doctor will tell me that I have an I.Q. of 48 and am what some people call mentally retarded…”

    They are in their day jobs (and earning >100Kpa, fer chrissake) thru transferring in from regional news. They are polite, punctual, reasonably good looking, no habits gross enough to disqualify them, and reflect the beliefs and prejudices of their class well enough to perform on TV.

    They are not there for analysis. They just present the facts sufficiently shallowly so that people who aren’t paying attention and don’t want to know think they understand the issue. They achieve this by being dumb as rockinghorse s**t and they do it quite well. If you want professional analysis, you go to professional analysts, not TV.

    Regards, Martyn

  28. Martyn

    “mentally retarded” …. ” transferring in from regional news”.

    I’m not convinced that it is altogether polite for you to suggest to Lefty that anyone moving from Yorkshire news reporting to appearing on “national” TV is sufficient evidence by itself that they are “dumb as rockinghorse s**t”.

  29. Osborne will swap jobs with Hunt.

    Sorry, should have taken some water with it.

  30. @Oldnat

    * I said that presenters are thick as s**t.
    * I said that presenters transfer in from regional news.
    * I did not say that everyone at regional news is as thick as s**t
    * I did not say that every presenter that transfers in from regional news has transferred in from Yorkshire news.

    However, you already know this. So instead, let’s test the theory. Can anybody suggest a regional or daytime news presenter who could do the following:

    * name all UK Prime Ministers back to 1945
    * name all US Presidents back to 1945
    * name *any* European head of state or government other than Merkel and Hollande
    * name the current Australian, or New Zealand, or Canadian Prime Ministers

    Have a go without Wikipedia/Google. T’aint easy (I got the current NZ PM wrong)

    Regards, Martyn

  31. Martyn

    This site deals with perceptions of comments.

    A passenger on the Clapham omnibus (or more likely a Leeds omnibus) might have perceived your comments as being metropolitan arrogance (though you may be from Cumbria for all I know).

    Perception is everything! :-)

  32. I can only assume that which ever members of the clownocracy had the Newsnight short straw looked at the ICM figures for 2010 Conservative voters, which shows that 67% are still happy with Cameron. Alternatively they just kept on repeating what ever received wisdom is currently lucrative. certainly I can see nowhere else where the idea of Cameron’s overwhelming popularity could come from. And even if they made that mistake, it would be out of line with every other poll.

    Martyn seems to have very odd ideas of television. The days of chummy presenters with mild regional accents are long gone and I don’t think British TV ever went for the American cult of Really Good Hair. Nowadays the performing seals have to come from the same tight little gene pool as every other member of the Establishment. I don’t think they deliberately dumb down either as a way of keeping the audience soothed. They’re genuinely superficial to the shallows of their souls and an awful lot of the punters find it frustrating.

  33. David Cameron
    Good 38
    Bad 50
    Net -12

    Ed M
    Good 33
    Bad 46
    Net -13

    George Osborne
    Good 24
    Bad 56
    Net -32

    Ed B
    Good 31
    Bad 39
    Net -8

    Team Dave & George -44
    Team 2 x Ed -21
    8-)

  34. @Billy

    It’s part of the Left’s illustrious heritage to spend more time fighting each other than their opponents. I mean, who do you think the Python’s were satirizing with the various Fronts of Judea? ;)

    ——————————————————————————-

    If it makes you feel any better, the Right do it too, witness all the divisions over Europe, and it is the Tories who tend to cull their leaders rather than Labour.

    The big difference, is the left tend to set up splinter parties, splitting their vote, though now the Tories have UKIP to contend with, whereas the residual effect of the whole SDP thing is in abatement. Which makes things interesting….

  35. @MARTYN

    Good Morning. It’s almost 7.30 and I accept the challenge as a ‘wakener upper’. Bear in mind, I’m an 80s kid.

    Cameron
    Brown
    Blair
    Major
    Thatcher
    Callaghan
    Heath
    Wilson
    Macmillan
    Home
    Eden
    Churchill
    Attlee

    Obama
    GW Bush
    Blinton
    Bush
    Reagan
    Peanuts (I can see the face, but forget the name)
    Ford
    Nixon
    LBJ
    Kennedy
    Ike
    Truman
    Roosevelt

    Current heads of state? Nope. I pay little attention to non-UK politics, out-with big news stories. Putin…there’s one!

    NZ, nope. Canada, nope. Oz…that ginger haired lassie I think.

    Time for a cuppa.

  36. amber

    Contrary to “accepted wisdom”, Mr Balls seems to be doing relatively well.

  37. Clinton…not Blinton.

    Would I hazard a guess at any presenters knowing these or more?

    Probably not. The daytime presenters don’t really need to know those things. Folk like Paxman, Vine and Dimbleby need to know things about politics.

  38. Hmm, the natives are restless…

    Tim Yeo, Tory MP, says DC must decide whether he is “man or mouse” over the third Heathroow runway.

    IMO, this is indicative of deep dissatisfaction within the Tory party about DC. Is this also a signal that DC shoudl be bold in the upcoming reshuffle and get rid of GO?

  39. @KeithP

    I also think the LD’s will struggling to get much into double figures, unless something drastic changes.

    That is unless the oft-discussed “clawback” for government parties also applies to 3rd parties in this position. Not seen many real election results or non-ICM polls that support 15% for them, in fact nearly always a lot less.

    ____________________________________________

    The LDs are of course also in government now, so clawback could apply.

    Of course the doomsday scenario for Labour occurs if this is just a mid=term blip for the government, and the coalition claw back their support in time for the election. Clearly clawback does happen. But equally clearly, parties do not always recover the support sufficiently or else incumbents would more often remain in government.

    The difficulty in judging this is that because of the coalition, you now have TWO parties suffering a mid-term issue, and hence potentially two parties who may increase their vote in the election over the polling now, which makes things more complicated and is naturally liable to encourage the coalition and its supporters – since each only has to recover a smaller amount – and make Labour supporters more nervous.

    And also maybe make it harder to compare with the past.

  40. CARFREW

    Interesting point…… However, I believe that the LDs will be severely punished at the next GE for Tuition Fees and being poodles to the Tories. Can’t see much hope for clawback for them.

  41. PAUL CROFT

    @Ah yes, Eoin ”

    Ah yes.

    If you’re looking for Sectarian Lefties, look no further.

    He is an expert-knows every Labour colour from Purple through the whole rainbow.

    Can list their evil tendencies in minute detail.

    Red is his tipple of course -will countenance no other-wrote the Book -literally.

  42. Enjoyed hearing Justine Greening deal patiently with an increasingly frantic Naughtie ( the well known “journalist” :-) )

  43. STATGEEK

    @”Would I hazard a guess at any presenters knowing these or more?
    Probably not. The daytime presenters don’t really need to know those things”

    Exactly -just Martyn’s “metropolitan arrogance”

    ……………….where is Metropol actually?-is it near Brussels ?

  44. Colin

    I take as much vicarious pleasure as the next Lefty in a “Tories in inter-necine, NIMBY-vs-economy war.”

    But even I was shouting “shut the f*** up and talk about the strategic policy issue Naughtie.”

    Appalling piece of political interviewing. Far, far, far too often, Tiday is more about setting the terms for today’s big argument rather than educating and informing.

  45. Colin

    “where is Metropol actually?-is it near Brussels ?”

    By rail it’s closer to Brussels than it is to Newcastle…

  46. Corkscrew

    CARFREW

    Interesting point…… However, I believe that the LDs will be severely punished at the next GE for Tuition Fees and being poodles to the Tories. Can’t see much hope for clawback for them.

    ____________________________________________

    Not only did they trash their manifesto and support the Tories pretty wholesale they’ve punctured all their selling points. Not much on green issues because Austerity, Civ Libs and rights of teh individual? They support the snooping thing. More Democracy? They went for AV and a version of House of Lords reform that left a lot to be desired democratically but clearly suited themselves.

    And even Europe… that’s largely an irrelevance since Labour have been OK with it for years now and Tories for all their bluster are THE party of Europe if you go by their actions, and given their business links that’s not likely to change.

    As for pupil premium or tax thresholds these were relatively marginal and undermined by related cuts. How many reasons are there to vote for them? Even with a spiffing manifesto for the next election, who would believe a word of it?

    Still, you never know…

  47. @ Nick P

    Contrary to “accepted wisdom”, Mr Balls seems to be doing relatively well.
    ————————–
    It’s that law of unintended consequences thingy. Nobody had heard of Ed B until Osborne mounted the Libor ‘attack’. When the bottom fell out of it, it made Ed B the underdog who came out on top.

    Or maybe they simply got mixed up & thought YG was asking about the other ‘shadow chancellor’, the sainted Vince Cable. ;-)

  48. @Amber Star

    Or maybe they simply got mixed up & thought YG was asking about the other ‘shadow chancellor’, the sainted Vince Cable. ;-)

    _____________________________________

    Isn’t Saint VInce the chancellor of Greece or something? He seemed to be under that impression immediately after the election…

  49. Statgeek,

    You’ve got Home and MacMillan round the wrong way and ‘Peanuts’ is Carter.

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