Two new polls tonight – the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 6%, so no significant change there.

There is also a new TNS BMRB poll, which has almost identical topline figures of CON 32%(+2), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), Others 16%(-1). Changes are from their last poll a month ago.


264 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. TOH

    As much as that ?

  2. Who thinks the coalition could survive if Cable was removed?

    I’ve always assumed he has his own power base within the LDs and could withdraw his (and their) support any time he likes.

  3. @Colin

    I am always kind & generous to my enemies!

  4. Alec:

    What have you got against lap dancers? [so to speak]

  5. Colin – it may well very have started the conversation and you may all be well aware of it, but Paul Goodman at Conservative Home suggested getting rid of Cable from Business (and replacing him with David Laws) by promoting him to Home Secretary, which would presumably be a hard offer to refuse.

    The worries that Paul mentioned about law and order policy I think are a bit less than he imagines, as the chunky sentencing stuff is the Ministry of Justice (and presumably Ken Clarke would need to be replaced by a trenchant right winger at the same time to keep the Tory party sweet). Tom Newton Dunn of the Sun responded that it would be awful for the Tories as they wouldn’t be able to have a tough immigration policy and this would be disastrous for them politically, but I suspect the opposite is the case – they aren’t going to hit their immigration targets anyway, so it would allow them to blame Vince and promise a tougher immigration policy if they won outright.

    Can’t in a million years imagine it actually happening, but always fun to play imaginary-reshuffle.

  6. AW

    Thanks.

    I like the thoughts in your second para .

    It would definitely be a trade off worth taking if that was on.

    The absolute imperative is someone at Industry who is trying to help them.

    If Cable at the Home Office is what we have to put up with to get it -so be it.

    It would be very very hard on TM, who I respect a lot.

    IT all just emphasises what a bag of ferrets this Coalition has become.

    It has done the Conservatives no favours -and getting worse on that score it would seem.

    Been terminal for LibDems if the Polls are to be believed.

    The reshuffle will be interesting !

  7. Paul suggested moving TM to Foreign Secretary. It would be William Hague who took the bullet and ended up as Party Chairman.

    Still not happening.

  8. COLIN.
    Good Afternoon, wet here now.

    Your description of the Coalition as ferrets may well have ended up as being put into moderation, if it was not a slow day in the room.

    Rude to ferrets, which upsets Old Labour people who used to hunt ferrets.

    Sorry to intrude on private grief.

  9. @Chrislane1945 – “Rude to ferrets, which upsets Old Labour people who used to hunt ferrets.”

    Surely you mean ‘hunt with ferrets’?

    @TOH – re IT and CGT. CGT would really be far fairer as it actually taxes the gain, so you can’t really argue it’s double or triple taxation.

    However, I always smile wryly at the triple tax argument when used against IT, generally by Tories.

    They’ve never been too shy of VAT on working people’s spending, which is just as a much a double tax after income tax and NI.

  10. AW

    Thanks again.

    Interesting idea.

    Will the reshuffle be Big Bold & Relevant-or just another wishy washy compromise to keep Nick happy ?

  11. CHRISLANE

    @”Your description of the Coalition as ferrets may well have ended up as being put into moderation, if it was not a slow day in the room.”

    Why?

    @”Rude to ferrets, which upsets Old Labour people who used to hunt ferrets.”

    You don’t hunt ferrets-you hunt rabbits with ferrets.
    I used to help local lads ferreting.

    You put a net over each entrance hole to the warren. You put the ferret down a hole. You can hear the screams as it tears the bunnies to shreds. If your lucky you catch a few as they bolt for the entrance.
    Then you tempt your ferret out & clean the blood off.

    Oh yes-a blood sport for the working classes. THe flat caps allow them to escape the opprobrium they heap upon their brethren on horseback.

    @” Sorry to intrude on private grief.”

    The grief emanating from Cable’s incumbancy is very much of the public variety.

  12. incumbency

    – and probably the best dancer in the cabinet [which is what is needed]

  13. Billy Bob @John B Dick –

    “… guarantees an answer, not just a reply”

    “I’m guessing on certain issues you could also cc one or more of your six MEPs from four different parties.”

    The greens are only in Glasgow and Lothian

  14. Billy Bob

    @carfrew – “Yeah they’re blowing his cover. Cameron doesn’t announce his policies (to return us to the halcyon days before Labour existed). He announces the opposite…. Then when in power, he does what he meant to do all along,”

    Oh dear, It sounds so cynical when you put it like that. Lol.

    ________________________

    Oh that’s nothing. We can look forward to a world in which everyone spends their time shopping for more and more services – ambulance, refuse, security, education and care homes etc etc. – and they will all
    of course be of stunning performance and value, like our other privatisation success stories: the railways and energy and water and G4S and so forth…

    The only surprise is why aren’t more people backing the Tories in voting intention? Don’t they WANT more of this? Surely there are few finer things in life than poring over websites trying to work out how to get from Doncaster to Bournemouth, using three different rail providers and booking three years in advance so you don’t have to sell off your first-born to do it? And still probably having to stand all
    the way for reasons of fun and profit. Surely everyone wants a party of privilege?

    The irony in all of this is that despite the Tories running to privatise everything that Thatcher missed, cutting taxes for the wealthy, preserving the baby-boomer hegemony, Tories all over the place
    are actually complaining about them and flirting with UKIP?? Just as Blair fooled many in Labour, Cameron has done the same to his own. That’s cynicism for ya…

    The Other Howard

    Not at all, there are plenty of people like me who want a lot more privatisation starting with the NHS.

    _____________________________________________________

    [email protected]!!*!?!??*@!??!?

    chrislane1945

    THE SHEEP and CARFREW.
    Many thanks for your vg posts.

    44% for Labour, if sustained, is a game changer, I think.

    A long way to go however.

    ______________________________________________________

    Thanks Chris.

    The situation Tories are in now rather mirrors what happened under Thatcher. Horrendous first term economically, Tory policies hammering the economy so badly that the spin doctors had to try and pretend that the worse it got the better it is really (“if it’s not hurting” etc.), and Tory VI way behind Labour.

    Thatch was rescued by 3 things:
    1) Falklands war
    2) SDP splitting the leftie vote
    3) North Sea revenues stopping the deficit from being as bad as now

    and then in her next term… a collapse in the price of oil that ushered in a worldwide boom which the Tories were able to ride and claim the benefit for.

    For the Tories NOW, however… what will save them? THere’s no world boom in the offing, the SDP/LD effect has evaporated thanks to coalition revealing the truth about the LDs, and even if we do what Thatch did – removing the only ship in the area etc. Argies are probably not going to oblige us again.

    Maybe if the Spanish could be encouraged to invade Gibraltar?…

    @R Huckle

    This is a pretty damaging stat, as if the Tories want to win the next election with a majority, they

    have to appeal to the whole country, not just the constituences where the wealthy reside.

    ————————————————-

    There may be a lot of Tories in denial about what and who the Tory party is really for…

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