Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%, very much in the normal range. On a Monday night you may be wondering where the monthly Populus and ICM polls for the Times and Guardian have got to – my understandiing is that Populus/Times are skipping August, as they have done in past years, and ICM/Guardian will probably be next week.


185 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 44, LD 8, UKIP 7”

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  1. ‘What about treatment in Florida?’

    You’d be dead by the time you filled out all the forms to show that every breath you took supported right wing parties…

  2. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 21st August – CON 34%, LAB 44%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%; APP -35

    Steady as she goes.
    8-)

  3. I know it’s only a wee cross-break etc etc, but UKIP at 5% and LD at 4% in Scotland is somewhat amusing.

  4. CON 34%, LAB 44%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%; APP -35

    Of to bed with my book-not THAT book-A UK history of 1974 to 1979-ah the memories-what times they were.

    And we may see their like again when McCluskey ,Prentis, and the lads start calling in those IOUs.

    :-)

  5. Lib Dems at 8% in 3 of the last 4 YouGov polls. I think we can all agree there has been no Lib Dem recovery.

  6. The Sheep,well of course I only read it to see what all the fuss is about!Said
    She piously.

  7. Colin – Fifty Shades of Blue? Not all it’s cracked up to be :)
    Sleep well.

  8. Swebb
    ‘Lib Dems at 8% in 3 of the last 4 YouGov polls. I think we can all agree there has been no Lib Dem recovery.’

    I think there were a few days of consistent recovery (or outliers). We hit the escalating heights of 10 or 11% only to come crashing down. Maybe we will have an autumn summer of LD revival. The sad thing is, I don’t think I really care anymore.

  9. @SoCalLiberal

    Galloway doesn’t hate Americans. He opposes what he sees as neo-imperialism. The US just happens to be at the head of that particular tree in the current age. He’s also highly critical of Russia and China for their imperialistic tendencies. And, he doesn’t think much of UK governments for the last 30 years also.

    To me Galloway is something of a paradox. Some of his political analysis is very well thought through, cogently argued and persuasively delivered. At his best he is also one of the best orators of his era. But he has an ego the, size of,a mountain,which leads him often to undermine had arguments with crass generalisations, inappropriate comparisons, and bizarrely misspoken conclusions

    As a result, it’s easier to dismiss GG than it should be. That some consider him a freak or a loony is therefore partly his own fault. But there is serious substance to the man. And, much, of,it,is mainstream. The media however only focus on him these days when he says Or does something controversial.

  10. Sneer derives from the curled lip, exposing a canine tooth, a modified snarl (as Darwin pointed out).

    A smirk would be more interior. It can be percieved or go unnoticed, unlike a sneer. A similar facial expression, but with mouth closed and mirth in the eyes. Both are to some extent involuntary – a sneer is unselfconscious, undisguised contempt, aggression; whereas with the smirk, self possession has arrived just too late – smugness has leaked out – you’re caught between blushing for yourself, and blushing for the stupidity of the other person.

    It’s just a ten point lead then.

  11. Well I am off to bed with my book on Bach’s solo music.

    Anyone who has not played Bach’s 6th Cello Suite on classical guitar has missed a great deal.

    Its a joyous work – enough to make you smirk and, maybe, even be nice to George.

  12. BillyBob:

    You lost me there: was the 10% lead for smirk or sneer?

  13. PAULCROFT

    Maybe a smeer or a snirk?

  14. OldNat,
    re: “I know it’s only a wee cross-break etc etc”

    I do believe you’re playing the troll. Or should that be “daffing the trow”?

  15. @PaulCroft

    The 10% lead is for Labour… average.

    I meant to say – it’s just a ten point lead after all.

    I’m needing jazz atm, but Bach is fine, very fine.

  16. @Henry

    “The sad thing is, I don’t think I really care anymore.”

    There’s always the Conservative Party. Come on now, Henry, you know you really want to so why not have a dabble with something a little more deeper blue than old Cleggo’s pale blue version of Toryism?

    @Colin

    “And we may see their like again when McCluskey ,Prentis, and the lads start calling in those IOUs.”

    Blimey, we’re wading back to ancient history here, aren’t we, with Miliband about to roll the years back to the mid 70s, now some 40 years ago? But why go back all that way when you can invoke the ghosts of only a decade ago and remind us all once again of the desert land of industrial mayhem and carnage that Blair and Brown unleashed on our blessed country from 1997 onwards? The unions queued up to cash in their IOUs, fire-breathing far left militants stalked the industrial landscape and we could hardly sleep safe in our beds through fear of flying pickets wading their way through piles of uncollected rubbish and unburied dead.

    Yes folks, we must never, ever return to those dark days of Labour when the tyranny of the unions brought us all to our knees! We’re one cross on a ballot paper away from bringing it all back again! Good people of Britain be scared; be very scared! lol

  17. POSTAGEINCLUDED

    It was on topic and pertinent. I’m not sure who you think would be inflamed by it. A UKIP supporter who breaks out in glorious song? or an LD supporter who is incensed that their party support in the land of the trows is (yet again) around half that in England?

    But daffing is accurate – playful in intent.

  18. @Billy Bob

    Jahmene Douglas did a pretty good rendition of “At Last” on Saturday.

  19. @Crossbat XI

    Reminds me of when Bush II formed his first cabinet. I thought he was about to reignite the Cold War!

  20. Good Evening All, awful AFCBournemouth match, dire.

    Solid ten points lead.

    COLIN.
    I too remember 74-79. Callaghan nearly did it.

    Very bad when Wilson backed down over Northern Ireland OMOV and Power Sharing when the Loyalists threatened him.

  21. Interesting to see the reaction to the borrowing figures. This has been going on for the last four months and beyond, yet only now does the media really start to pick up on the trend and wake up to the fact that the deficit reduction strategy isn’t working.

    This is partly explained by normal good sense – we need to wait to see economic trends, rather than fire off at every monthly statistic. But I think something really seems to have snapped today, and these figures have really shone an extremely bright light on the chancellors central political objective.

    Another key element of this is the effect it will have on the OBR. To date, the predictive record of the OBR has been dire. I can’t think of a single number they have got remotely correct in their forecasts, and both the scale of the errors and the fact that they are always hopelessly optimistic in their outlook, really must at some stage start to bring their entire credibility into question.

    I suspect this will be bad news for Osborne, as the nature of things is that the OBR will not retain any credibility when they issue positive forecasts, yet the media will report them as gospel if they produce damagingly poor predictions.

    While Brown was usually over optimistic on his GDP forecasts, both he and darling tended to be broadly accurate for their borrowing projections, usually actually coming in under target, even in the grim 2009/2010 period.

    One other observation is that Osborne promised us Armagedon if we didn’t rein in borrowing. We are now pretty much back to the rate of borrowing in the worst year of Labour. Either the Greek implosion idea was a bit of a fib, or we have a problem just round the corner.

  22. paulcroft

    “Anyone who has not played Bach’s 6th Cello Suite on classical guitar has missed a great deal.”

    Have you Sibelius? I can send you my reconstruction (not arrangement) in italian tablature for German Baroque of the first movement of BWV 1013.

  23. The thing about the markets and borrowing rates…it’s nonsense now I think about it.

    Every time the Government issues bonds to raise money, the Government prints money and buys those bonds. The “Market” ain’t involved, it can’t influence rates. They can buy bonds if they want, but if they don’t,print the money and buy them yourselves.

    The whole thing is irrational.

  24. German Baroque Lute in D minor tuning

  25. Alec

    The economic forecasts remind me of Jerome K Jeromes’s attitude to 19th c. weather forecasts.

    http://www.authorama.com/three-men-in-a-boat-5.html

    But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand. The prophet we like is the old man who, on the particularly gloomy-looking morning of some day when we particularly want it to be fine, looks round the horizon with a particularly knowing eye, and says:

    “Oh no, sir, I think it will clear up all right. It will break all right enough, sir.”

    “Ah, he knows”, we say, as we wish him good-morning, and start off; “wonderful how these old fellows can tell!”

    And we feel an affection for that man which is not at all lessened by the circumstances of its NOT clearing up, but continuing to rain steadily all day.

    “Ah, well,” we feel, “he did his best.”

    For the man that prophesies us bad weather, on the contrary, we entertain only bitter and revengeful thoughts.

    “Going to clear up, d’ye think?” we shout, cheerily, as we pass.

    “Well, no, sir; I’m afraid it’s settled down for the day,” he replies, shaking his head.

    “Stupid old fool!” we mutter, “what’s HE know about it?” And, if his portent proves correct, we come back feeling still more angry against him, and with a vague notion that, somehow or other, he has had something to do with it.

  26. OldNat,

    Ponderous is more my style, but I was just teasing. You do raise an interesting point though. Given the MOE on the cross-break it’s possible that the support for LD and UKIP in Scotland is – minus 10%!

    Iechyd da!

  27. POSTAGEINCLUDED

    I love the idea of “minus support”!

    Would it be achieved by slaying the first-born (and subsequent siblings) of LD and UKIP voters? :-)

  28. @Raf

    Jahmene Douglas – thanks for that – I think. :)

    Am listening to Bill Frisell/Unspeakable Nonesuch on Accujazz now.

  29. OldNat,

    That would probably be a kindness.

  30. JBD:

    I’ve never played in Baroque tuning actually. I’ve just commissioned an 11-string guitar fro Philip Woodfield and the plan is to arrange/play as much of Bach’s violin/cello and “lute” works as possible before death – or even worse – put a stop to it all. That will be conventional tuning with five extra basses, two fretted.

    Also, as I’m a total duffer, I don’t have Sibelius – I’m still a pen and ink man but ’twas a kind thought. If possible I’d be interested to play it.

    What do you play – lute? I’m playing for Nifel North in October in sunny Gateshead.

  31. postage: “kindness”

    Yes, that should work with the jury.

  32. PAULCROFT

    Slaying the first born seems to be a policy that gets Jewish and Christian approbation.

    Sounds a certainty for some Republican candidate!

  33. Paul,

    Ha! I’m sure that when I swear to tell the truth on “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” they’ll accept anything I say.

    (Kudos to those who spot the Sykes reference. RIP Eric.)

  34. POSTAGEINCLUDED

    Blackpool?

  35. Will Ken Clarke be reshuffled, shuffle off, or stay put?

    For many of the current crop, he was the only cool Conservative while they were growing up. Hague and Cameron have each in their own way tried to adopt his manner.

    There must be a certain frisson knowing that the only person who was kind enough to tell Thatcher the truth to her face (“it’s over”) – is actually sitting across the cabinet table from you.

  36. Nat,

    It’s from the film “One Way Pendulum”.

    Quite like the idea of “Absurdist theatre” on the pier, but I doubt even Eric,George Cole, Mona Washbourne, Peggy Mount and Jonathan Miller could raise much of a crowd in Blackpool.

    Nos da.

  37. Interesting analysis of the reasons for high utility prices in UK – not privatisation as such, but incompetence in its introduction.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/private-operators-exploit-funding-formula.18607483

    “public utilities have been allowed to profiteer on a grand scale as a result of “gross errors” in the formula covering their capital investment charges.”

    (Full report doesn’t seem to be available yet).

  38. POSTAGEINCLUDED

    I remembered an interview with Eric Sykes when he mentioned his Dad heading off to a Blackpool pub called “Uncle Tom’s Cabin”.

    Telling the truth on a pub seemed rather an appropriate tactic. :-)

  39. @ Colin

    Isn’t it interesting what differentiates people here.
    The smirk is dishonest & invites a smack in the mouth.
    For me the curled lip has an air of authority and invites a considered intellectual response .
    BY the way-GO is not my idea of Posh.
    —————————–
    Colin to GO – with a sneer: I don’t think you’re nearly posh enough to be a ‘proper’ Tory.
    GO to Colin – with a rueful smile: Really?
    Colin to GO – !!smack!!: Take that, you smirking oik!
    :-)

  40. @ Old Nat

    “DC’s Gray has at least experienced a summer to survive through!”

    Lol. Well I’m sure global warming will fix that someday soon and even Aberdeen will become a tropical paradise and Iain can enjoy hot summers as often as his cousin Vince does. Also, it’s not so much a summer there as it is a swelter. One literally walks outside and starts dripping wet.

  41. Colin

    I wondered what you thought of this?

    The Highways Agency “which runs the strategic network of motorways and A-roads, could be made more independent, most probably as a government-owned company or public trust, so it can borrow large amounts without increasing the public deficit.”

    So the Agency borrows from a bank and the Government guarantees the loan, and then the Agency lends it out and the Government underwrite that too? But the Government isn’t borrowing, oh no.

    Why not use the printing press? It would be more honest.

  42. VI seems to have stabilised, for now.

    I wonder what joe public will make of the gov’s latest kite flying which some might think amounts to privatising the Highways Agency? So, in a few years the HA will be ripe for selling and at a stroke every road could become a ‘toll road’.

  43. NickP
    Snap.

  44. “For the man that prophesies us bad weather, on the contrary, we entertain only bitter and revengeful thoughts.”

    For some reason, that line made me think of Helen Liddell, John Reid, George Robertson, Ian Davidson, Brian Wilson, George Foulkes and the long list of infamous “Nat Bashers”.

  45. JOHN TT

    @”Fifty Shades of Blue? Not all it’s cracked up to be”

    Very good ! :-)

    ………..I agree-the problem has been too many Shades.

    Post Coalition that will change……………..for 2020 .

  46. NICKP

    It’s just another desperate attempt to pretend that the country isn’t as indebted as it really is.

    It’s Son of PFI.

    Ponzi would smile.

    Until we really get Public spending really under control, we are f**ked

  47. “GO to Colin – with a rueful smile: Really?”

    Have a care Amber Star… laughter may be the best medicine, but could we have a “do not take during breakfast” warning, please? ;)

  48. @Colin

    Or until we accept that we may have to raise taxes.

  49. “Too fast, too deep”

    Labour

    ” Too little , too slowly”

    I O D

    You’ve gotta choose George-you can’t please both of them :-) :-) :-)

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