Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%, very much in the normal range. On a Monday night you may be wondering where the monthly Populus and ICM polls for the Times and Guardian have got to – my understandiing is that Populus/Times are skipping August, as they have done in past years, and ICM/Guardian will probably be next week.


185 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 44, LD 8, UKIP 7”

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  1. colin

    He may have blown his chance for the cut more and quicker option. He should at least freeze further job losses, public spending cuts as they will squeeze more demand out of the economy and create more fear.

    I don’t think even deeper and quicker cuts would have worked…would have made things worse in my opinion. We can’t know for sure though.

    But it would be utterly utterly mad to try it now.

  2. colin

    He may have blown his chance for the cut more and quicker option. He should at least freeze further job losses, public spending cuts as they will squeeze more demand out of the economy and create more fear.

    I don’t think even deeper and quicker cuts would have worked…would have made things worse in my opinion. We can’t know for sure though.

    But it would be utterly utterly mad to try it now.

  3. oops

    Is that what we call a double dip?

  4. Today, our psephologist looks at the effects of the proposed boundary commission changes on the constituencies of Staffordshire.
    Follow the link for the latest instalment in this unique series:
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/08/west-midlands-boundary-changes-part-2-staffordshire/

  5. COLIN.
    Good Morning, after my 10 mile run on the beach!

    For a simple man like me, can someone explain why cutting demand in the economy at a time of downturn is a sensible policy, since it leads to further deficit and debt increases? It also further reduces demand which leads to more downturn and deficit and debt.

    Many thanks

  6. Nice statement from the editor of Holyrood magazine –

    “Maybe ‘bad manners’ but I gave consent to @georgegalloway to write column for @HolyroodDaily and consent is now withdrawn.”

    http://www.holyrood.com/articles/2012/08/22/george-galloway-statement-from-the-editor/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Denying him publicity – good move.

  7. @CL1945
    Me too. I recall another paradox from the early days of Right To Buy when it was ‘wrong’ to spend the proceeds of sales on renovating a run-down council house [A] – because this would add to publc expenditure figures as well as being inflationary.
    Meanwhile the new RTB owner of council house [B] next door nips off to the bank and takes out a £20k loan for home improvements – and this was deemed OK and considered to be a sound investment.
    As Spooner would have said, the bind moggles.

  8. Oldnat – George should write for them anyway. After all, they’ve given consent once, they are clearly already in the publishing game.

  9. Crossbat
    ‘There’s always the Conservative Party. Come on now, Henry, you know you really want to so why not have a dabble with something a little more deeper blue than old Cleggo’s pale blue version of Toryism?’

    Thank you for taking the trouble to express your prejudices.

    The (Mail) Tory right that has a big say in the current Party, and in my view this is as bad as the extreme left, that attempts to control the Labour.

    Certainly neither are Liberal, which I happen to be.

    Newspaper wise, both the Labour Mirror and the Tory Mail express unbalanced and extreme views, whereas I prefer the Independent as the nearest thing to Liberalism; not perfect but will have to do.

    The nearest Party to Liberalism is unsurprisingly the LDs. The LD leader, incidentally, who we democratically elected, is Nick Clegg; as opposed to the Labour leader who was selected by the Unions; so we do not need you to preach to us on leaders.

    While I think the majority of red, blue, yellow and other contributors can see a clear difference between the parties, there are a few from the left who appear to think anyone who does not espouse socialist policies at every opportunity is Tory, UKIP etc. It appears that you are one of those; or perhaps you just like to wind up other contributors; not a particularly attractive feature; but it takes all sorts to pass the day.

  10. Anthony: They gave George initial consent yes, but was there an insertion at that time?

  11. Chris Lane

    ‘COLIN.
    Good Morning, after my 10 mile run on the beach!’

    I always read your posts with a tinge of sadness that I live in the Midlands, well away from the South Coast. Not 10 miles perhaps, but I could have joined you for the first mile. I remember when I was seven, walking with my sister (then 10) from Durley Chine to Sandbanks, almost totally on the beach. We caught a bus home! My grandma was very worried.

    Times are currently politically difficult, and I am disappointed that Vince has not totally reformed the Lloyds and RBS banks. (He told me he would sock it to them and I wish he would). However I read an article either in the Times or FT the other day which expressed the view that EM was just not doing enough and polls would turn against Labour; the bookmakers do not agree. The LDs could still hold the balance of power, possibly with Labour. Of course if around I would support the new Lib/Lab Coalition (I suppose in some people’s view that would make me a closet socialist).

  12. According to a poll by LibdemVoice, half of LD supporters want NC to cease being the LD leader by next GE.

  13. Henry

    The logic is really very simple.

    If it looks like a Tory, sounds like a Tory and votes like a Tory, it’s probably a Tory.

  14. Henry
    “Of course if around I would support the new Lib/Lab Coalition (I suppose in some people’s view that would make me a closet socialist).”

    I fervently hope that you ARE still around come 15.

    But your post does raise that existential question for the LibDems: What exactly are you voting for when you vote LD? Are you voting for a party that will support the majority of the Tory manifesto? Or for a party that will support the majority of the Labour manifesto?

    I haven’t a clue how you set about answering that question in 15, in a way that retains any semblance of political integrity.

  15. Lefty:

    …. and I think the response “we’ll tell you when we know who’s won” has run its course.

    They’ve tried for ages to play both ends against the middle [quite successfully] but like the Who sang “I won’t get fooled again.”

  16. NICKP

    DM speculating this morning that he will react with additional cuts. It all depends on OBR forecast for Tax REvenue-which is looking dire apparently.

    The irony of this is that GO did just what IMF asked-don’t react to deficit reduction undershoot by more fiscal tightening-let the stabilisers operate & extend the timescale.

    Can he do that again-another two years on top of another two years?

    He is in a bind-no question. DEficit 12/13 will be UP on PY-at worst it could be as high as the figure inherited from Labour ( 09/10)

    I heard someone on radio this morning, commenting on Samaras saying Greece doesn’t need more money-just more time. The commentator said-when you are running deficits, more time IS more money>

  17. CHRISLANE

    According to IFS, there are no cuts compared with last year.

    I refer you to second & third bullet points of “Headline Comparisons” in this :-

    http://www.ifs.org.uk/pr/pubfin_aug12.pdf

    Do you find life confusing sometimes , like me, Chris?

    :-)

  18. CHRISLANE

    People are perplexed, even when the Government is Socialist :-

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/centreleft-criticises-mediocre-hollande-as-french-crisis-deepens-8070025.html

    The Good Life gave us expectations-expectations become entrenched-disappointment becomes inevitable.

    The story of the Western Democracies-their politicians trying to be alchemists .

  19. Anthony,

    – “After all, they’ve given consent once, they are clearly already in the publishing game.”

    :) You ought to start a Fringe show. That astute and thought-provoking jest was a mile better than any of this guff:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/stage/2012/aug/21/edinburgh-fringe-funniest-jokes-revealed?newsfeed=true

  20. Colin – I think I heard to-day an allusion to the wooden tower block game, Jenga. Greece is trying to miss its “go” in the hope that the tower won’t fall. If all the participants follow suit and miss their go, then enough time will elapse to erode the problem. The tower might just remain standing if we all forget to claim our interest and pull out a block.

    Fat chance! All it takes is a breath of wind, and we’re all on the floor waiting to be picked up and piled together again in an interlocked tower(presumably by China)

  21. John TT

    It is a bit like that isn’t it?

    Frightening really.

    But EZ seems to teeter on the edge forever somehow.

    It is today’s young people I feel sorry for. I seem to remember that it was a child who shouted ” But the Emperor has no clothes”

  22. Colin, haven’t we only just paid off the debt from WWsI & II, or do we still pay some imposition in some form or other?

    I’m sure my little one will eventually land his successors in as much of a pickle as we’re landing him in.
    As long as we don’t do that “let’s all kill as many of each other as we can” thing that previous generations chose to thin out the population and clear dead wood.

    I find the system sillier as I get older.

    My aged auntie, as red as they come, says “it’s only £20” when she talks about her annual payment for her virtual freehold to the Duke of somewhere. Why pay a duke £20 a year? Is there a sensible reason? With a blank piece of paper in font of us, would we devise a system so bereft of merit than the one we are tolerating?

    One day, the kids will realise what it’s all been about and devise a system that is neither red nor blue nor any hue at all, but is one that rewards work rather than “risk” taking. I don’t feel sorry for them, I can’t wait for them to take over and run things better than we did. They’ll scratch their heads at some of the things we’ve done and have a ball writing period dramas taking the mickey out of us all.

    Apologies to the psephologists – I don’t comment often any more, but I do enjoy the read every so often, and I’m glad Colin is unbowed, and eschewing the party-identifier shading! One would never guess Colin where you lean!

  23. Thanks John.

    I enjoyed reading that.

    I’m afraid there will always be “colours” because there are always different ways to do it all.

    So my view is that they will probably just go round the same old circuits, and disappoint their own children in turn.

    I think “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose ” is a perceptive proverb.

    My leanings tend to be forward these days-particularly after gardening. :-)

  24. John

    “Britain will today make the last repayment on loans lent by the US and Canada during the second world war – 61 years ago.

    The Treasury will send £42.4 million to the US and £9.98 million to Canada via electronic payment, the 50th instalment on a loan that without which Britain may have collapsed under the cost of six years of war with Germany.

    “This week we finally honour in full our commitments to the US and Canada for the support they gave us 60 years ago,” Ed Balls, the economic secretary to the Treasury, said last night.

    “It was vital support which helped Britain defeat Nazi Germany and secure peace and prosperity in the post-war period. We honour our commitments to them now as they honoured their commitments to us all those years ago.”

    The original loan was for $4.3 billion from the US – the equivalent of about £27 billion in today’s money – in 1945 and a year later, Canada also agreed to lend Britain $1.2 billion.”

    29. Dec. 2006
    Politics.co.uk

  25. Nice one Colin! I sympathise, and admit to adopting the “brace” position, politically, more and more, whoever’s in.
    I hope your efforts are appreciated by the butterflies in your garden. :)

  26. Colin – does that mean the USA is now paying rent for its military bases here, or is their continuing presence part of the deal?

    Thanks for the info – I was vaguely aware of something like it.

  27. $5.5bn doesn’t seem so much now, does it? Maybe that long-term, sit back, let them pay in instalments over 60 years has something in it after all?

  28. JOHN TT

    @” Maybe that long-term, sit back, let them pay in instalments over 60 years has something in it after all?”

    Yes-it seems to be quite popular these days-but with the creditor nations .

    The lenders seem to be less keen than they were back then.

  29. It’s not a great parallel, is it Colin? Who’s wearing the jackboots, bombing harbours etc? Let’s not go there!

    I have a feeling the Chinese are going to feature in the solution – a Great Wall of money exists there and, whether organically, or on request, the vacuum over here will be filled by those who have money to invest, when they gain confidence that we have control over risk.

  30. John

    I remember the Chinese Premier commenting on Western Welfare costs & productivity, when the idea of Chinese purchase of EZ sovereign debt was mooted.

    I have a feeling that they see us as living beyond our capacity ( or willingness!) to fund our own lifestyle.

    I don’t see them leaping in to help us out on that score, when their own people work & live by such different standards.

  31. Colin, I think we are agreeing – it’s all be about appreciation of risk. While the scandals mount, the complacency, the greed is clear, any wise investor will wait. The Chinese are cautious savers, but they will come to the fore when they evenmtually know that we are stable.

    Once it’s clear that a safer environment prevails for investors, sentiment will turn positive.

    I spent a few weeks working in China a few years ago – I was struck by the large number of volunteers, and people paid presumably very little to assist in supermarkets. Lovely, friendly people, whose Govt could probably, ironically, learn more from us than it can teach us.

    I give it two years max before we begin to take off again, I believe with the impetus of inward Chinese investment.

    Just in time for an election?

  32. @ john tt

    “Colin, I think we are agreeing – it’s all be about appreciation of risk. While the scandals mount, the complacency, the greed is clear, any wise investor will wait. The Chinese are cautious savers, but they will come to the fore when they evenmtually know that we are stable.

    I give it two years max before we begin to take off again, I believe with the impetus of inward Chinese investment.”

    Isn’t this all a bit chicken and egg? We won’t get Chinese investment until we are “stable”, but we won’t stabilize things without investment.

    This is the coalition problem every man and his dog keeps pointing out, but it fallson deaf ears. We don’t need Chinese investment, business here is sitting on piles of cash. But they won’t invest because the cuts kill both demand for goods and services and hence kill the tax take and up welfare costs. Leading to more cuts etc…

    Which is why governments have to up the investment in recessions. Relying on the private sector to do it risks disappointment.

    Meanwhile shooting themselves in the foot yet again, Tories announced a cut in corporation tax, sat back and waited for the hoped-for business investment that never came, and instead suffer a fall in corp tax receipts. Brilliant. Business sat on the money… because there’s no demand. Why invest when cuts are taking demand out of the economy?

    They however UPPED tax on the oil fields, and lost out as oil companies cut back production..; well done again the Coalition!! The government is relying on supply-side measures that won’t make much difference because no demand, but they even get the supply side measures wrong anyway.

    Much the same happened under Thatch… economic policies that cut the deficit initially then watched things worsen again as the impact on demand became evident. But Thatch had North Sea Oil at its PEAK, amounting to 15% of government revenue… if we had that now it would take care of much of the deficit…

    She also had the Falklands war….I’m not convinced the GB public are really all about the “economy stupid” when it comes to voting intentions. Question is, what non-economic factors can save Clegg and Cameron now? Anybody?

  33. JOHN

    I have been thinking for a while now, that timing is going to be good for EB & bad for GO.

    Economically It’s going to be 1997 all over again

  34. Carfrew- your main point seems to be about “chicken and egg”. Domestic and foreign investors have lost trust. Confidence (same roots as “trust”) will return eventually even if we don’t become more “trustworthy” or morally respectable. Confidence will return primarily because the prices in the market will undershoot. They/we are just waiting for the figures to make sense and bargains to appear. So the eggs will lead the chickens to sit on them!

    I think we need Chinese investment for the same holistic reason I think they need ours there. Trade works, whether you choose to characterise trade as capitalism or global socialism.

    At thhe moment, a big influx of money from China would lift our confidence level and encourage us to take the money out from under the bed.

    I don’t think there’s much that can save “Cameron-Clegg”, but I’m not sure either of them cares about their own joint identity. Clegg is trying to pave the way for coalition-style governance, and Cameron is trying to turn the tide towards the circumstances that led Peabody, Carnegie and their ilk to do some good with their fortunes. His trouble is that those individuals do still exist, but are, like their illustrious pre-decessors, outnumbered by selfish people, and drowned by a system that rewards risk rather than effort.

    I have great hope that the moral problems you grapple with are solvable, and that a joint enterprise will harness Olympian, untouchable spirit to guide the next keepers of our wealth better than the last.

    Some of the “right-wing” modern Tories are coming to terms with “workforce motivation” by offering to fire those who don’t try hard enough. They are not thick! They are leading the argument inexorably towards the commodity of trust and how trust grows between employer and employee. Those who coast do so for a plurality of reasons. A sharper focus on trust can provide a solution to the impassse between a customer/shareholder -focussed employer and a family-focussed worker. How to “do” that is partly about how we build personal confidence in individuals.

    I kniow we are three threads down, but it would be good to read your response.

    Colin – Don’t you think GO will be planning a tax give-away to tempt the voters before 2015?

  35. @John TT

    Thanks for your reply!!

    The problem is that business won’t have the confidence to invest until they think they are liable to have some customers to buy their products in a reasonable time frame.

    And the problem there is that cuts, in taking money out of the economy, kill demand for products and services. And VAT and income tax rises make things even worse.

    Hence Tory supply side measures – cutting corporation tax, employment protections, red tape – will be of little use as while they might make investment easier in theory, in practice there is still no point investing until there is going to be demand for your products in a reasonable time frame.

    And with cuts scheduled for years – and without much government investment to offset – it makes sense for a business to wait. Which is what they are doing.

    Hence cutting corporation tax didn’t stimulate investment. Employment regs won’t either, as they don’t do much for demand. Germany is doing fine with stiffer employment protections.

    Labour cut taxes on CUSTOMERS and invested: result growth. Because it helped demand. Tories did the opposite, and it clearly isn’t working.

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