ComRes’s monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out and shows virtually no change from last month. Topline voting intention figures are CON 33%(+1), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 8%(-1), Others 7%(nc).

Yesterday there was also a new Angus Reid poll, their first since May. Topline figures there are CON 30%(+1), LAB 41%(-4), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 9%. It shows a significant fall in the Labour lead, but this will be due to their previous poll being something of an outlier and being conducted in May when other companies were also showing somewhat larger Labour leads.

Later on tonight we also have the regular YouGov poll for the Sunday Times.


71 Responses to “New ComRes and Angus Reid polls”

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  1. @ Billy Bob

    “The reduction in MPs/boundaries gives the Tories 20 extra seats? No, it gives them 7 fewer seats – and only if they poll the same as they did in 2010. On current polling, on provisional constituencies they lose 86 seats, instead of the 75 they lose under the current system.

    Tory backbenchers, the type who (if they have a safe seat) will always be backbenchers, don’t like the reduction to 600 because it reduces their power in relation to the government payroll (of whichever complexion).”

    I’m really surprised to see legislators voting to get rid of their own jobs (as opposed to voting simply to freeze the current number of seats). I feel like this is something only Brits could come up with and do.

    However, I think that some of these folks will be very unhappy to lose their paychecks seeing that even if they had a complete exact repeat of the 2010 election results, they would still lose seats.

    You have to figure that some of the safe Tory seats (ones where you’ve got backbenchers) will be eliminated by the seat reduction. I wonder if Lords reform was designed in a way to promise those MPs a place to land if they could no longer serve as MPs.

    @ Crossbat11

    “Just another thought on the amount of unregistered voters. If we accept the Electoral Commission’s estimate of 6 million and then add those to the 14 million registered voters who took no part in the May 2010 election, then that is roughly 20 million adults in the UK who are not participating in the democratic process.

    Am I the only person who finds this a quite staggering and truly frightening figure?”

    Question, is voter registration one of those things that’s mandatory in the UK? Or is it voluntary? I think there’s a problem when constituencies will look significantly different when drawn by number of registered voters. It can dramatically change the political landscape too.

  2. @Old Nat

    I do hope that you weren’t meaning Barney. He was so delighted at someone saying something nice about him!
    ———————-
    Any politician would be, it’s a rare event. ;-)

  3. OLDNAT
    “Was that the one where you had to guess how many English school playing fields had been sold off?”
    “About” 10.000 schools sold off playing fields under the Tories between 1979 and 1997, according to the DT, but noone was counting. God Almighty!
    By my reckoning that is a hidden tax on the worth of previous public investment in children’s health and wellbeing. It is as near to selling off the family silver as I can imagine..
    Two days ago there was a BBC comment to the effect that the Labour Party will hope that “this one will run and run”. Is that what politics is about?

  4. @ Old Nat

    “I do hope that you weren’t meaning Barney. He was so delighted at someone saying something nice about him! :)”

    Well on his bio page for his “Elect Barney to Scottish Parliament” website? Or just generally? There’s quite a difference there I think.

    Did you ever see any episodes of Seinfeld, in particular the episode “the Jimmy”? This is where a guy keeps reffering to himself in the third person, confusing people and ultimately causing George to adopt that manner of speech.

    Bob Dole used to talk about himself in the third person a lot. It was kinda annoying but also entertaining. Then again, so was his 1996 campaign (referencing the “Brooklyn Dodgers” and falling off a podium among other things).

  5. Good Morning All.

    It’s going to be a SCORCHER here by the sea today.

    JOHN PILGRIM.
    Yes, Politics is a rough sport, and the Games have raised the profile of public investment such as sports fields. It is a pity that the 1979-1992 Governments were so insistent on nailing down teacher’s contracts and targets that they drove many teachers off the playing field-voluntary activiites.

  6. Sunday Times YG Poll up. Surprising news.
    Double Digit lead. Normally Government parties do well in the Summer, I think.

  7. Approval –
    Cameron -25 (-4)
    Miliband -31 (-10)
    Clegg -56 (nc)
    Remember, before anybody read in to the drops in both leaders’ approvals (and Miliband’s massive drop), that perhaps we should wait until next week to see if it’s not just one poll.

    Assange polling:
    “As you may know, Julian Assange, the founder of Wikileaks, is wanted by Sweden on charges of rape. In order to avoid extradition, he has gone to Ecuador’s embassy in London.”… question not quite finished in the tables, AW?
    Ecuador was right: 23
    Ecuador was wrong: 60

    “Britain’s government has now said that, under a little-known law, Britain has the legal right to enter Ecuador’s embassy to arrest Mr Assange. Do you think the police should…”
    Arrest Assange: 33
    Respect the diplomatic convention: 54

    Will Assange receive a fair trial in Sweden?
    Fair: 51
    Unfair: 25

    Would he receive a fair trial in the US?
    Fair: 29
    Unfair: 51

    “Ecuador has since granted asylum to Wikileaks founder Julian Assange to live in Ecuador, do you think Ecuador was right or wrong to offer Mr Assange asylum in Ecuador?”
    Right: 25
    Wrong: 55

    “If Britain’s police do NOT try to enter Ecuador’s embassy in London, do you think the police should try to seize him on the way to the airport, or would this be an improper violation of diplomatic convention?”
    Grab him on the way: 43
    This would be a improper violation of the convention: 38

    Interesting responses from the public – the police shouldn’t breach the diplomatic status of an embassy but they should breach the diplomatic convention on the way to the airport?

    Unsurprisingly, Cons most in favour of action against him (even if it breaches international conventions) and Libs least in favour.

  8. “Surprising news.
    Double Digit lead.”
    Err..
    Last week of YouGov polls
    Lab: 43, 44, 43, 44, 42
    Con: 32. 35, 34, 34, 34
    Lead: 11, 9, 9, 10, 8

    Not really a surprise, given Labour’s position hasn’t really changed – the lead has only really dropped due to changes in Con VI (although all within MOE).
    So a double-digit lead, within MOE of recent polls, shouldn’t be much of a surprise.

    Not that “the lead” is the be all and end all of polling (even if it is important in the event of an actual election) –
    Say that we have:
    Lab: 42, Con: 32, Lib: 9
    Then something terrible happens with Labour – it drops to
    Lab: 32, Con: 33, Lib: 9
    If you only pay attention to the lead, we have “Con takes the lead, Labour drops from a 10 point lead”… even though the movement has made little difference to the Con VI.
    Much like Lab’s current lead has little to do with an increase in Lab VI and everything to do with the Con collapse.

    (Compare also the Con 2009 leads over Labour, which were much bigger than Labour have now, but Con VI barely scraped above Labour’s current VI – the lead was down to a lower Lab VI).

  9. HENRY

    @However reducing the monster from currently over 1000 would be a fantastic start.”

    Indeed.

    That was the essence of the David Steel Bill.

    It would have commanded much support.

    Clegg rejected it.

    THe Tory rebels obviously thought that a constitutional change, which in their view was bad for our democracy, was too high a price to pay for a few additional Tory seats.

    THat seems commendable to me.

  10. That’s a good point Tinge (may I call you that?)

    Majority Goverments need to be getting up around that 40% mark or more. The lead at this stage is irrelevant if both parties are getting in the mid or low 30s. Although Lab’s advantage in voter spread means they can work on high 30s.

    Still looking good for a Milliband Landslide.

  11. “Majority Goverments need to be getting up around that 40% mark or more.”
    Not necessarily –
    It all depends on FPTP.
    Labour had a majority in 2005 on a smaller percentage of both the electorate and the voters than Conservatives got in 2010.

  12. Colin

    I take your David Steele point but I am not sure that Clegg is to blame on this. I think there some very uncompromising characters in both LD and Tory, and perhaps the criticism of both NC and DC is that they fail manage these awkward people. Would I do better? definitely not.
    I think we probably disagree therefore on the commendable. The other thing is that if the Tories (particularly right) want to rule out of coalition to save the country (in their opinion) and to move to a low tax high reward regime, it is only common sense to do everything possible to maximise any seat advantage for the good of the country you could say.

    From a LD perspective I think we have a duty to support reform of the boundaries to reduce seats and make the sizes closer, although the means of achieving this sometimes seems a bit odd. But I have nil influence and although a keen LD follower and voter, I am no longer a Party member, partly due to the local party and partly because I don’t want to be a member of any party anymore.

  13. New poll in the Mail on Sunday. Note: it is not stated who the client was (or was is the MoS Anthony?). Is that a breach of the BPC rules?

    PA wire: ‘Scottish independence support dips’

    “Support for Scottish independence appears to have dropped in the wake of the Olympics, a new poll suggests.
    Just over a quarter (27%) of the 1,177 Scots adults questioned in the Scottish Mail on Sunday poll said they believe Scotland should become an independent country.
    Three in five (60%) said they opposed independence while 13% said they did not know.
    This contrasts with research published on August 1 which found that 30% of people wanted Scotland to leave the United Kingdom and 54% did not, with 16% undecided.
    YouGov carried out that earlier study for the Fabian Society, questioning 1,029 people in Scotland between July 17 and 20, before the Olympics began.
    The latest Scottish Mail on Sunday poll also asked if the referendum on Scottish independence should include a second question on extending the powers of the Scottish parliament.
    Those surveyed were asked: “Some have argued that the referendum on independence should offer people the straight choice over whether Scotland should remain part of the UK. Others, however, claim that a third option should be included on the ballot paper, offering people the chance to vote for an extension of powers for the Scottish parliament. Regardless of how you would vote, do you think the referendum should…? Be one question with a straight choice over independent; Include a second question on extending the powers of the Scottish parliament; Don’t know.”
    More than half (53%) backed one question with a straight choice over independence while 41% supported a second question on more powers for Holyrood.
    The remaining 6% said they did not know.
    The poll was carried out by Progressive Scottish Opinion between August 14 and 17.”

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5iI8d5pUpZCQxBmJmsCFQKAohg-PA?docId=N0053781345331605688A

  14. The betting markets are, thus far, unmoved by this poll which AFAIAA shows the lowest ‘Yes’ level for years.

    Best prices – Scottish Independence Referendum Outcome

    No 2/5 Hills, PP
    Yes 5/2 Ladbrokes

  15. @John Pilgrim

    “Two days ago there was a BBC comment to the effect that the Labour Party will hope that “this one will run and run”. Is that what politics is about?”

    Blimey, these Olympian metaphors are getting everywhere now!

    @”Latest Sunday Times results 17-19th August – CON 32%, LAB 43%, LD 10%, UKIP 7%; APP -37″

    In the spirit of the Daily Telegraph’s recent article on the Ipsos/Mori poll, I’m assuming that the Sunday Times headline this morning reads “No sign of Olympic Bounce for Tories, or Party Leaders, as Labour opens up an 11% lead!”

    After my normal six mile run around the glorious Worcestershire countryside, I shall head off to my local newsagent in a while to collect my tranche of left leaning Sunday newspapers (all two of them) and I’ll take a glance at the ST to see if I’m right. I will be surprised if I am!

    After Villa’s surprise reverse at the ‘Ammers yesterday, I shall be ignoring the back pages! I spent most of the last season doing likewise.

  16. HENRY

    @”From a LD perspective I think we have a duty to support reform of the boundaries to reduce seats and make the sizes closer, .”

    It does not surprise me that you have that view.

    That you do, may not be unconnected to your last sentence. I have never been a member of a political party.

    The constant disappointment would be so debilitating.

    There is more to life , thank God.

    Regards.
    Colin

  17. @ Colin

    “That you do, may not be unconnected to your last sentence. I have never been a member of a political party.

    The constant disappointment would be so debilitating.

    There is more to life , thank God.

    Regards.
    Colin”

    Yes I agree with that. I have never joined a political party, because they are essentially run by political geeks, looking to make a living out of it.

    If the parties were run by people who had a genuine desire to improve the country and it was not just a career choice, then I might have a different opinion.

    Plus the fact is that the current generation of leading politicians are the least able that we have ever had. This is partly due to the intense nature of the job, with media coverage 24/7. I am not sure we could have a PM in say their 60’s or 70’s, as the pace of the job and pressure may be too much for them.

  18. @Henry
    “I expect many Labour supporters living in Tory areas who swore never to vote LD again will reconsider for should there be no overall majority with Labour the biggest party, quite a possibility, then it is almost certain that LDs would back them.”

    Oh ye of too much faith Henry! Look back at analyses of how many people are aware of the marginal nature (or much else) about their constituency. Have you ever canvassed?

  19. R Huckle

    I agree with much of that.

    I also think that there is a huge inertia , and resistance to change, built into our Civil Service. We can debate the reasons for that-but the effect is imo a sheet anchor on political effect in government.

    Maude is obviously struggling with this , as Blair did before him.

    It is probably more problematic for those trying to implement structural change-like Blair & Cameron-than for those merely concerned with redistribution like Brown.

  20. @stuartdickson Any idea what odds I’d get on there being no referendum?

  21. Crossbat11

    It is depressing that so many don’t vote or engage with democracy, but worse that govts do nothing to change things, except opportunistically fixing the rules for party advantage.

    Where is the great cross-party crusade to register voters and inspire confidence in democracy? Nowhere to be seen.

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