The monthly Ipsos MORI poll which I’ve been expecting for a couple of days has finally appeared. Topline figures with changes from last month are CON 32%(+1), LAB 42%(-2), LD 11%(-1), Others 15%. There is a reduction in the Labour lead since last month, but this is probably largely a reversion to the mean after an unusual poll last month.

MORI have also asked some questions on the Olympics and how it has changed people’s opinions on various political figures. 61% of people said it has has had a positive effect on their opinion of Boris Johnson, 43% on their opinion of David Cameron, 70% the royal family, 81% the BBC and 39% the NHS. I’m always somewhat dubious about questions asked in this format as it risks people who have a positive or negative opinion of the thing being asked about anyway saying positive/negative even if their opinion is unchanged (it’s why when YouGov ask about it they give two no difference options, a positive and negative one, so people can express a positive/negative opinion of something without saying their opinion has changed).

We can be more confident looking at MORI’s regular leader trackers, where they show a sharp upward spike in all three party leader’s approval ratings, as well as an improvement in the government’s approval rating. The feel-good factor from the Olympics does seem to have resulted in more charitable public feeling on many issues… but hasn’t affected voting intention.


97 Responses to “IpsosMORI/Standard – CON 32, LAB 42, LD 11”

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  1. LEFTYLAMPTON

    ” when at school, I could determine someone’s address to within 800 yards from the subtleties of their speech, so obvious were the differences in accents to me.”

    I suspect that is true in most parts of the world – though in some places the subtleties of speech might represent communities of class, religion etc and not just geography.

  2. Amber

    You may be interested in Kenneth Roy’s latest musings on “The hot, sweaty guys (and gals) who have ‘saved’ the UK”.

    http://scottishreview.net/

    “But the silliest silly season in living silliness is over” – except, it seems, in parts of ….. (I was going to quote the recent claim of SLab being Scotland’s largest party, but your website has dropped the old [and false] claim of that in favour of pushing your alliance with the Tories and Lib Dems).

    It’s very disconcerting to find that your lot have moved from a demonstrably false claim on size to a completely true expression of your real friendship with the right wing in Westminster.

  3. Henry:

    1) Pietersen’s replacement didn’t do too shabbily today. Maybe this “genius” thing is overdone to cover up personality defects?

    2) Mo Farrah’s family left Somalia to avoid Civil War. Kevin Pietersen changed his nationality because he couldn’t get into his national side. Help me out here, because I’m struggling to see what the point was that you were making.

    3) I’ve looked high and low, but I really can’t find the nasty little under-performers who hate what Jess Ennis and Mo Farrah’s did a couple of weeks back. Maybe “people” only hate “geniuses” when the geniuses are up their own arses?

    4) I’ve just noticed that Crossbat gave a much better answer than my point 2, so please ignore my text.

    5) Does anyone have any polling data on how obnoxious “geniuses” are viewed by the water carriers on the team?

  4. @Amber Star

    “Ed wasn’t covered in the media as being at the Olympics much. Did he get lots of points for not politicising it?”

    Interestingly enough I noticed persistent (organised?) trolling of several Cif threads connected (directly and indirectly) to the Olympics. Along the lines of “EM is not supporting British athletes” (a couple actually used the expression “our boys” – wonder where they got that from? LOL). It gave the impression that “someone” was trying to turn Ed’s discretion as far as publicity hunting is concerned against him. I do have a gut feeling that Cameron’s “omnipresence” may not have served him as well as his pr-advisors might have hoped – hence (perhaps) the attempts to turn the situation on its head.

  5. FREDERICKL

    Congratulations for braving the horrors of the CiF threads!

    Interesting that supporters of the right wing party in England are attacking the supposedly left wing party in England, in exactly the same way that the right wing in Scotland (supposedly in the same party as the left wing in England) are attacking their opponents in Scotland on exactly the same chauvinistic grounds.

    Why does the term “scoundrel” spring to mind?

  6. @ Henry

    “I don’t like the comments ‘he turned his back on South Africa’ , any more than the accusation that my hero Mo Farrah turned his back on Somalia.”

    Ah, my fellow Liberal! I agree with you. I was rooting for Mo Farrah btw (it’s weird when you root for athletes from countries other than your own but sometimes the really great athletes warrant it).

  7. @ Old Nat

    “Alas for your theory, most of us aged 65+ “can’t be bothered to work”, but more of us vote than among younger folk. (The same was true when I were but a lad too).”

    Yeah, I’ve noticed that.

    “It’s not slagging off those who might be described as the “victims” of the Welfare State that is politically stupid for Tories, but blaming a significant part of your own support.”

    Yes it’s true. I find that many people have a belief that all those who do not work are natural slackers. Welfare state serves to protect the weakest who cannot support themselves.

  8. Good Morning All.

    Very interesting and surprising article in the Daily Telegraph about the effects of Gay Marriage laws on voting intentions. The article points out that between 5 million and 7.5 million people have regular contact with a christian worshipping community which is being politicised.

  9. CROSSBAT11

    Great post about Mo & Pietersen.

    Mo’s dedication to his adopted country is in stark contrast to Pietersen’s cynical self interest.

  10. The Tories have drifted out to 7/1 in the Corby by-election market:

    Lab 1/12 (Hills, Ladbrokes)
    Con 7/1 (Paddy Power)
    UKIP 33/1
    LD 100/1

    Incidentally, PP have a fun new market up:

    Julian Assange – How Will He Leave The Ecuadorian Embassy?

    UK police car 5/4
    Ecuadorian state car 7/4
    Diplomatic bag 7/2
    Helicopter 9/2
    Tunnel 25/1
    Laundry van 40/1
    Hot air balloon 90/1
    Jet pack 90/1

    Julian Assange – Length of Stay In Embassy?

    Three to six months 7/4
    Six months to one year 2/1
    One year to two years 7/2
    Up to three months 7/2
    More than two years 11/2

  11. Note how it is deemed twice as likely that Julian Assange will leave the Ecuadorian embassy in a diplomatic bag than that the Conservatives will retain the Corby seat!! :D

    One must credit the Irish with a wonderful sense of humour.

  12. CROSSBAT 11 and COLIN.
    Good Morning.

    West Ham was where the first Labour man was elected. They are at home today, should win.

    Mo & Pietersen: agreed. Loyalty is such an important virtue.

  13. @SoCalLiberal

    On Julia Brownley… you might have noticed I was being a little bit flippant in some of my remarks, but there is a contrast between her page and and those of the other candidates It has a more refined upmarket feel – no problem, perhaps that’s right for Ventura County; but the others do seem to make more of an effort to connect – her profile is all in the third person. From my idiosyncratic standpoint, the portrait on the candidate page drew me in, but the homepage kept me at arm’s length. Funds behind her might make a difference there.

    I guess I was hoping for something closer to the Molly Erdman/Elizabeth Warren tribute you pointed to on YouTube:

    Elizabeth Warren Announces Her Bid for Senate. ;)

  14. A lot of people don’t like the intolerant way gay marriage is being promoted.

  15. @Paul Croft

    “The worst idlers in the world”
    Well, its a bit less patronising and predictable than the traditional “hard-working families.”
    Let’s hope it makes it onto an election poster.”

    This slogan would work best electorally alongside a picture of someone very posh like Boris or George

  16. Crossbat

    I would like to echo the praise for your piece on Mo and Pietersen – totally agree

    I also find offensive his comments on the ‘Black Country’ accent. For a start Cannock is not in the Black Country, in fact there are arguments against the fact that my home city of Wolverhampton is as well!

    Whilst we are on the subject I would like to just mention my little town of Wednesfield which produced another Olympic medallist, Kristian Thomas, to go along with Tessa Sanderson and Denise Lewis. Honorable mention also to Hayley Price, who was a gymnast in the 1984 LA games.

    Not bad for a small town and not a private school in site Mr Gove!

    I must also admit that the town had another representative at the 2012 Games but I think Liam from One Direction is not something gives as much pride

  17. Oldnat / Stuart

    I had to laugh when I saw the comment below this article:

    h ttp://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-yes-campaign-turns-question-around-1-2475629

    Content:

    “The chief executive of the independence campaign yesterday offered an alternative perspective on the constitutional issue by asking: “How many Scots would vote to join the Union if Scotland was still independent?”

    Blair Jenkins posed the question at a debate at Queen Margaret University, where he said in such circumstances the overwhelming majority of Scots would vote “Yes” to remaining independent.

    He said: “In that scenario, what would be the case for the Union? Your main parliament will move hundreds of miles away and your MPs will be in a small minority. You will have ?a government you didn’t vote for.

    “You will hand over all your oil and gas revenues to the London Treasury.””

    I was sniggering at comment #6:

    “You can expand that theory but looking at all the current ‘benefits’ we already have and trying to structure the ‘new union’ to give all the other areas of the union the same benefits. Make the new centre of the unionist parliament in Inverness. Make Scotland suffer 600MPs to the rests 60odd and see how they get on making all the decisions for everyone else. It would be tough. Make everyone send us the cash so we can redistribute it to needy causes throughout the joined up country. Make sure the economy is in good shape by having the next Olympics in Inverness, the next channel tunnel going from Wick to Reykjavik, the next high speed train link from Inverness to Aberdeen with plans to extend as far as Laurencekirk and Dundee in next 25 years. BBC soaps would obviously have to have Scottish themes and be based throughout the country, such as Ullapool and Kirkintilloch. National news would be based in Scotland but the other ‘regions’ would be able to opt out for local items. Match of the Day featuring all games from SPL to Highland league would be aired twice at weekends, wheas the other leagues could have a 45 minute local airing on Monday night. Sadly we would see the demise of cricket as a ‘national’ sport as shinty took to the national airways, and regular news updates of how the team was fairing against some ex commonwealth games would be an integral part of any sports roundup. With these and other choices I predict there would probably be a huge queue waiting to sign up to the new union.”

    :)

  18. Bazsc
    “I also find offensive his comments on the ‘Black Country’ accent.”

    The PC-PC in me felt his gourd rising as I read that and started to wonder what derogatory remark Pietersen had made about the South African accent…

    Having read on, I feel as silly as those folk who wrote in to The Guardian complaining a few years ago, prompting a little clarification article that went something like this.

    “In response to numerous letters of complaint, we would like to point out that, in last week’s article on the assault in South London, when we said “Police are looking for a black cab driver…”

    I’m sure you can complete the tale.

  19. R.HUCKLE.
    Many thanks for the poll from Angus Reid.
    How do you explain the high Lib Dem VI?

    M.Parris.
    A surprising article by him today about The Games, and being nothing to do with teams.

  20. @ Chris Lane

    High LD VI of 11%. Probably some liberal Tories have transfered over to them, as they now trust them and don’t view them as left wing lightweights. Or it could be that some don’t knows have liked Nick Clegg standing up to the Tories and they are saying that they would vote LD.

    I think we have always known that the LD vote will increase, but not by how much. They won’t achieve their 2010 vote level and they will lose quite a few seats at the next GE.

  21. BAZSC

    A tremendous Hall of Fame for Wednesfield-many congratulations.

    I worked in Dudley for many years.

    The dialect has deep roots in English history & I love it

    Aynuk & Ayli. The Pig on the Wall.The wonderful Black Country Museum.

    Fond memories of the place & it’s people.

  22. Colin.

    If it is, I’d be confused. For some Tory MPs they want to win the next election and grow, for many others they don’t want to lose their own seats. This seems like something that can affect the voting shares, one of the reasons why UKIP are important to bring into most discussions despite such low polling nationwide.

    Its a big issue, and calling British workers lazy is not going to win your party votes. In fact its likely to harden those choosing to vote Labour. In the end that comment is going to haunt them, following them into many discussions in the coming months on any political show.

    I don’t think the motivations of certain MPs can’t be discussed. End of the day it affects how people see the party and thus the vote share.

  23. FRASER and AMARY.
    Welcome.
    I have no wish to contradict COLIN, but I fully agree with your comments.

    One caveat perhaps: almost feeling bad for Cameron.

  24. Not sure it is a Tory MP’s interest to say that British workers are lazy. That would not go down well with their local constituents, so hardly likely to help them win.

    Anyway apparently, the Tories who wrote the book are saying that quotes have been taken from the book out of context.

    Once the book is published, people can then make a judgement about what it says. If it does give the impression that the 5 MP’s feel that the British are lazy moaners etc etc, perhaps some may agree with it or they won’t. It is only a book and they are entitled to their opinion. If the media go mad about it, then the uproar may do more damage and it could affect the Tories.

  25. Colin

    may I thank you for your kind comments

    I am very proud of my roots and town – the people are fantastic and we have a proud and coloured history

    The thing I am proudest of is my accent – 25 years after moving out of town I still maintain it. My wife currently is teaching English to Francophone Swiss kids – if you hear a Roger Federer equivalent in 10 year standing up and say ‘Ow am yow’ then you know what school s/he went to!

  26. Statgeek,

    :)

    I suspect that Blair Jenkins has started a meme here. It’ll be fun to see how/where it goes.

    To be frank, the Yes/No “debate” (read: re-stating of decades-old stances) has been so poor thus far that any new angles are to be warmly welcomed.

    And remember, we’ve got over two years of this to go, and I’m honestly beginning to wonder if the waverers in the middle (ie. the folk that will decide the outcome) might just vote ‘Yes’ in order to get everyone to just shut the f*** up. The logic being that all this infantile “debate” (read: re-stating of decades-old stances) is tedious in extremis, and that a ‘No’ result will just result in approx 2 more decades of constitutional “debate” (read: re-stating of decades-old stances), therefore let’s just get the whole thing over with now, cos let’s face it, we all know that Scotland is going to regain independence anyway, and the only outstanding question is when.

  27. Although I like the conceit that Southerners have Norman genes, I think I’m correct in saying that the limited numbers of Normans and the extremely stratified society post-Conquest meant that fewer Norman genes entered the general population than you would think. Compare to (say) the various Viking invasions and occupations of Northern England and Scotland, where the invaders enthusiastically and nonconsensually interbred with the indigenous population.

    As for accents: I can distinguish between Yorkshire and North East, Liverpool and Manchester, but that’s easy. So i can tell that Liz McDonald has the wrong accent for Corrie, for example. But the subtler distinctions escape me: I probably wouldn’t be able to place, say, a Cumbrian accent.

    The Midlands escapes me entirely: Birmingham yes, everywhere else no.

    As for Dahn Sarf: Cornwall/Devon are easy, ditto Somerset. I can just about distinguish South Coast. London/Essex are easy to identify but difficult to separate. Thames Valley is about the most accentless accent. Conversational tropes of the South East include things like “GoodGoodGood” used as a terminator for the “How are you?” (“How are you?” “Fine, thanks”, “Goodgoodgood”) and – and this one irritates the f**k out of me – the use of the phrase “Thanks” for “Please?” or “Regards”

    Wales is the one I was most used to, and can still distinguish Swansea (sultry) from the Valleys (braindamage) and from Cardiff (Kaaaarrrdifff). But I’m probably way out of date now.

    Northern Ireland is a lot harder, and I’ll never be able to separate them, much to their disgust no doubt.

    Scotland? Highlands versus Lowlands yes, but again that’s easy (someone said “ah mah wee loon” to me once, and my God it’s a lovely accent). I could at a pinch pick out Posh Edinburgh, which is Boston Lockjaw for the Scots.

    Regards, Martyn
    (NOT “Thanks, Martyn”)

  28. The money continues to pile on LAB in Corby.

    Ladbrokes have just cut their Lab price to a miniscule 1/16, and lengthened Con to a huge 8/1. I cannot remember the last time an incumbent party was priced so long in a by-election market.

  29. STUART DICKSON

    Thanks for this information about Corby. Has a writ for the by election been called?

    My first by election, in the sense of remembering it, was the Hull North by election in January. A Labour man called Kevin McNamara won it. It encouraged Harold Wilson to think he would win the GE in 1966.

  30. BAZSC

    :-)

  31. @Martyn
    ‘no problem’ annoys me as a rejoinder. It always makes me feel as though the other party feels I have created one as is excusing me for having done so.

    I have tried ‘was there a problem then?’ when there were other previous annoyances in the exchange, but that’s a bit like conversing with the man from New Delhi and telling him you are registered for TPS.

    I won’t sign off ‘cheers’ either as i am not holding a glass. Bit early actually.

  32. @Crossbat
    Excellent reply re. KP. I lived in South Africa for a few years, and he is far from alone in turning his back on the country ‘for sporting reasons’ that also include mysteriously losing his SA accent as well. The Proteas can live without him, and seem to be doing fine.

    Keep the cricket posts coming – anything to distract you from the new football season :) (But good luck anyway)

    Back to what this site is actually about, I do wonder where the Con MPs get off publishing a book calling British workers ‘the worst idlers’. Did CCHQ accidentally leak the winners of the spoof Labour slogan writing competition? It does seem bizarrely contemptuous considering they’re trying to convince, um, British workers to vote for them.

  33. Pressure is building on the gov, the PM and the Chancellor to boost the economy. This is the BIG issue facing the UK.

    It would be incredible if GO remains in post and there is no change very soon in economic policy.

    IMO, the best thing that DC can do for various reasons is shuffle GO out of the Treasury.

    Getting rid of GO would be seen surely as the act of a courageous/strong PM? And a new Chancellor with a new focus and strategy might just about reinvigorate the Cons’ hopes possibly in time for the next GE.

    From DC’s point of view the timing is important as it could affect the scale of the Lab result in Corby. It would suit DC and the Cons for Lab to win but with a lower than forecast vote. This could affect EM’s and Lab’s standing. Indeed, Cons would welcome the opening of dissnet and in-fighting in the Lab party.

  34. @ Statgeek

    The SNP could try saying: imagine Scotland is currently independent, would you vote to join the UK?

    The response would be: How is the imaginary independent Scotland different from the Scotland we live in now?

    And this is the elephant trap for the SNP because, apart from telling Murdoch his business taxes would be lower, the SNP have utterly failed when it comes to telling us in what ways their imaginary independent Scotland would be different for the rest of us.
    8-)

  35. @ Mike N

    I think Cameron’s internal problems are with the right of the Tory Party. But he’d need to replace Osborne with a left leaning chancellor, if he wants enthusiatic implimentation of Keynsian policies. Shuffling Osborne out would leave him with the much bigger problem of who to shuffle in.

    I wish Boris were already an MP, it would’ve been interesting to see whether the Tories consider him to be Chancellor material.
    8-)

  36. Amber Star

    I doubt GO will be removed, for various reasons.

    “Shuffling Osborne out would leave him with the much bigger problem of who to shuffle in.”

    Will some people think that statement says so much about the state of the Con party?

  37. In 2009, after yacht-gate Cameron said Osborne would stay as shadow chancellor, again in 2010 he assured us that he would be able to sack his friend if needs be. Earlier this month Cameron made it clear: Osborne stays as chancellor till the general election – and will remain chief strategist.

    On balance, comparing the two, Osborne can count on more allies within ministerial ranks/the parliamentary party.

    Worth it for the picture:

    h
    ttp://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/337145/George-Osborne-will-stay-says-Prime-Minister-David-Cameron

  38. I’m sure GO will stay put, but getting rid of him is IMO the right move for DC.

  39. @ Mike N

    Will some people think that statement says so much about the state of the Con party?
    —————
    Indeed. Labour has a veritable cornucopia of candidates for Chancellor.

    Stick with Ed B?
    What about Cooper; a good ‘compromise’, if we think we can’t win with Ed B in the role?
    Bring back Darling?
    Very early promotion to the big leagues for Reeves?
    As a long-shot & if he’d take the role, Andy Burnham is simply the most popular cabinet member with the activists. His down-to-earth style could bring electoral rewards for the Party but he does seem to be ‘wedded’ to the NHS at the moment.

    I almost considered David Miliband but I think,if he’s coming back into the cabinet, he’ll have to return in a much less controversial role.

    I’m sure you can think of other candidates for the shadow Chancellor role which gives our Ed the opposite problem to that which the Tories have.
    8-)

  40. I think that Cameron is bound to Osborne.

    They are stuck to the mast.

    They are stuck with austerity as the strategy, and hoping for an upturn.

    Ed has yet to prove himself as a man who can deliver the votes, and Corby is a big test for him.

  41. Agreed Amber, as a proud Scot myself (lived their for the first 40 years of my life) despite being unable to vote in this referendum (currently reside in England and have done for some time) I still pay a great deal of attention to the independence referendum.

    For my part the thing I am really struggling to see, is that if an independent Scotland would still share the same currency, the same military and defences, and lately we’ve had the promise that the United Kingdom would carry on as a United Kingdoms so we’d still have the Union flag and have a social Union of some kind. Apart from giving Fiscal Policy powers to the Parliament in Holyrood I can’t really see what the big changes are. Salmond’s proposed independence seems very similar to me to be nothing more than Devo Max but with a bit of rebranding.

  42. @ Anmary

    Spot on! And the SNP are edging away from their last ‘big’ differentiator, namely: Trident. The SNP conceding that Scotland would remain in NATO is basically the SNP edging towards admitting that any shared UK defence strategy will include Trident staying where it is.
    8-)

  43. If B Johnston’s image went up following the games (back on thread) then it shows there really is nothing such as bad publicity.

    ‘Who would vote for a prat like me’? Plenty it seems.

    We live in a Saturday evening TV world.

  44. @ Howard

    But a week has passed since the Sun on Sunday did their Boris poll piece & still no tables on YG,or not that I can find anyway.
    8-)

  45. Howard as you fully well know, I’m no Tory, but even I must confess to having voted for Boris in May. The thing I find with Boris is that he’s not this oaf that he portrays.

    We have scandal after scandal, Uturn after Uturn with the Government in Whitehall, but Boris hasn’t really had any negative headlines at all. I can’t think of any mistakes that have come back to bite him. As well as portraying this lovable oaf he is also very shrewd.

    I’m no Tory but if it came to a choice between Boris and this current government, I’d probably give my vote to Boris.

  46. @oldnat

    “Congratulations for braving the horrors of the CiF threads”

    It’s a dirty job but somebody’s got to do it :-). On a slightly more serious note chauvinism it self whatever its source (I am not familiar enough with internal Scottish politics to respond to that part of your post) is a fairly repellent phenomenon. However, what struck me about that which I observed on the Cif threads was the artificiality of it. The tone was not “authentic Little Englander” – there was something analogous to the 1950s stage cockney as played by middle class actors of the period about it. You know the sort of thing “gaw blimey guvnor, yor a toff and no messin”. The ubiquity of those postings combined with the sense of falseness about them was what led me to suspect that it was actually organised.

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