Lord Ashcroft has commissioned a poll in Corby ahead of the by-election (while he doesn’t say, Ashcroft’s fieldwork in constituency polls is normally carried out by Populus). The full tabs are online here.
Topline voting intention in Corby is CON 37% (down 5 from the election), LAB 52% (up 13), LD 7% (down 8), Others 4%(down 1). This equates to a swing from Conservative to Labour of 9 points, the equivalent of an eleven point national lead. With a comfortable fifteen point lead Labour shouldn’t have any particular problem taking the seat.
There were also some specific questions on Louise Mensch. 35% of people agree she was a good local MP, 29% of people disagree. 82% of people agreed she was entitled to put her desire for a better family life ahead of continuing as an MP, but equally 65% of people think she should have thought through how she would balance family life and life as an MP before standing for Parliament.