The Guardian have a new ICM poll on the coalition here. The YouGov/Sunday Times results are also up on the website now, covering the coalition and the Olympics – I’ll leave people to look up the Olympic results themselves if they are interested.

In YouGov’s poll, 45% of people think the coalition should end now, 40% should it continue. The majority of people who think it should end are, naturally enough, Labour supporters. About three-quarters of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats think the coalition should continue for the time-being, about one in five of both think it should end now.

Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters who want to see the coalition to end would like a new election, most of those 20% of Conservative supporters who’d like the coalition to end would prefer a minority Conservative government.

The overall results on the House of Lords reform and boundary changes are almost identical – 34% of people think Cameron was right to cancel the Lords reforms, 42% think he was wrong; 34% think Clegg is right to vote against the boundary changes, 41% think he is wrong. The cross-breaks are unsurprising – Conservatives think Cameron is in the right and Clegg in the wrong and Lib Dems think vice-versa.

Turning to ICM, they asked a question on how long people thought the coalition would last. The question is almost the same as a YouGov one asked last week, giving people pretty much the same answer opinions. When YouGov asked the question in July they found 54% thought the coalition would last most of the Parliment (30% until the election, 24% until just before). ICM a fortnight ago found very similar results, with 56% expecting the coalition to last the term (33% until the election, 23% until just before).

YouGov repeated the question just after Nick Clegg’s statement on boundary changes, and found the proportion of people thinking the coalition will last the term had fallen to 47% (24% to the election, 23% until just before). ICM today find it even lower, with only 35% thinking the coalition will last (16% till the election, 19% just before). The difference between ICM and YouGov could be wording, but I suspect some is also the effect of asking two days later once people had had chance to see the news.


174 Responses to “YouGov and ICM polling on the future of the coalition”

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  1. Well its main raison d’etre was stable government and I don’t think we have that. Just as much conjecture as pre five-year terms.

  2. There must be enormous stresses within each of and between the parties in the coalition. It seems unlikely that the stresses will neither decrease nor remain constant.

    The boundaries review hangs over the coalition. As time goes on it will become more of an issue, espcially for the Cons and DC.

    But for me the big issue is the economy. Surely it is a duty of the LDs being in gov that they argue for GO’s removal from the Treasury? Perhaps, as I’ve suggested on another thread here, the LDs can offer suppory of the boundaries review in return for GO’s removal and a change in economic policy. If the LDs are going to be seen to achieve something by being in gov, this could be their opportunity.

  3. The younger age group seem to be the least keen on sport in schools !!

  4. @ Colin

    The younger age group seem to be the least keen on sport in schools!
    ————————-
    They are the couch potato generation of fatties. They are the reason why we need more sport in schools. ;-)

  5. If the coalition ends early, it will do so because one side or the other judges it to be in their own political interest.

    Hard to see how the CON could make that assessment. As it stands, they will lose the next GE:

    So it is up to the LIBDEMS.

    Will they collapse the coalition? It depends on whether or when they see a chance to form another coalition.

    At the moment, that wouldn’t happen. LAB would win outright.

    Ironically, what the LIBDEMS really (really) need is those boundary changes…..

  6. There clearly is a slightly comic determination on the part of the Conservatives and their supporters in the media that at least some of the gold dust should transfer to them. Today’s Sunday Times poll has pages of questions such as Generally speaking, have the 2012 Olympics made you feel better or worse about Britain and And do you think the 2012 Olympics has or has not made people more likely to see Britain as a nation of sporting winners, rather than plucky losers?.

    Presumably the idea is to see if there are public emotions there that can be played on to increase government support, but the general response seems to enthusiasm for the athletes’ success but without any indication that they will transfer that to how they feel politically. True there is some partisan response involved in some of the replies, but that is probably coming from the diehards who won’t change how they vote under any circumstances. Maybe people really can distinguish between bread and circuses.

  7. Amber

    Always interesting to see folk wanting compulsion for others.

    Adults might be less keen if compulsory PE was extended to the whole population.

    Imagine the reaction when the community PE teacher turns up in your street, and drags you all out for your mandatory 2 hours of PR! :-)

  8. PR = PE! :-)

    Mind you, over the last couple of weeks, PE seems to have become PR.

  9. The attempt to blame Team GB’s sporting disaster on the failings state education isn’t going well either. Mainly because the public have a better grasp of the facts than the media seem to and 65 medals doesn’t seem a disaster to them (the expectation should have been around 45 so it is a good result) and they see most of those winning them going to those useless, uncompetitive state schools[1]. But the public seem unwilling to accept the arguments as well.

    True 69% say that … the amount of sport that is done in state schools has … fallen over recent decades, but when you ask those who think this the reasons for this the results are:

    Teachers not being interested in promoting sport in
    schools 9%

    Teachers having to spend their time on paperwork
    instead 22%

    Lack of funding from central or local government for
    sport 41%

    Teachers Unions opposing teachers taking part in
    out-of-school activities 16%

    Other 7%

    Despite everything they’ve been told, the voters continue to believe it’s all about money rather than political-correctness-gone-mad.

    [1] According to the ever-useful Guardian datablog:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/datablog/2012/aug/06/team-gb-medal-winners-background#school

    the percentage of medal winners who were privately educated is less than a third as opposed to half in Beijing. But it also indicates one reason why the private figures are inflated that hasn’t been pointed out yet. The second ‘poshest’ sport is rowing (though even there nearly half the medalists come from state schools) but this also gets a disproportionate number of medals not just because the Brits are good at it but because so many of the numerous categories involve 2, 4 or even 8 people.

  10. ROGER MEXICO

    “Maybe people really can distinguish between bread and circuses.”

    That is one of the encouraging things about the Olympics. The attempt to politicise them seems to have completely failed.

    There is a Panelbase poll reported in the ST (perhaps only in the Scottish edition) with the following question “How has Britain’s Olympic success affected your attitude to [the Macbethian issue]”

    80% said it made no difference at all.
    12% (who were already supporters of the Scottish Government) said that the Olympics had reinforced their existing view – and the same reinforcement of existing attitudes was reported by 8% (according to Prof Curtice, already committed supporters of constitutional status quo).

    The “more/less likely to” type of question is one that Anthony has oft criticised.

  11. @ Old Nat

    I know you were funning but I am in favour of a culture of activity for adults, even if I’d stop short of compulsion. I liked the Japanese-style work place aerobics & stretching exercises that used to be mandatory in major Japanese firms.

    My employer has an optional wellness program. They subsidise gym membership [which is taxed; I think it shouldn’t be, up to a reasonable limit], give out free pedometers & have sports days & an honour-based competition where you can input fitness achievements to a web-tool & your team gets credit for them.

    Their only stricture: “Don’t get too carried away with the competetive element. We expect you to actually achieve your work objectives between bouts of walking around with your pedometer on!” :-)

  12. Amber

    Joking aside, that seems a sensible economic decision by your firm – for the same reason that my last school encouraged staff to make use of the fitness studio, and arranged instruction in some sports (tennis/golf) for staff who wanted it.

    All the evidence is that physical fitness is correlated with mental acuity – whether there is a causal connection, I don’t know.

  13. Amber Star “Couch-Potato-Fatties”

    I just don’t think this works as well well for shouting at someone as the more traditional and much simpler;

    Oi! Fatty!!”

    I am convinced this is what my little border terrier, Rosie, wuffs at the fatsos we meet in the park and, although there is no way of proving it I do hope that is the case

  14. In my late 50’s Grammar School the boy who always strolled the cross-country, arriving back a day after everyone else. was called, without any hint of malice, “Fatty” wotever-his-surname-was. Clearly he must have been unique.

    If one called that out in a school now they would have no idea who you meant – possibly no idea WHAT you meant…

  15. @ Old Nat

    I believe firms do benefit: Fewer sick days, reduced stress, improved mental acuity, team building etc.
    8-)

  16. IMHO as said many times before, it will last till sometime within a window that stretches from the early autumn 2013 through early spring 2014.

    The Lib Dems still have to receive their third successive arse-kicking in the May 2013 locals yet: which (combined with low/ stagnant economic growth continuing into mid 2013) will lead to Clegg being implored by his troops at the autumn 2013 conference to either conduct a detoxification coalition withdrawal or resign.

    He might do either or he might try to cling on in which case- if he avoids a putsch- it will be the Tories who clearly are planning for a good year or so “bowling alone”: they’ll go into a minority around spring 2014. Having successfully hung the expenditure and service cuts, tuition fees, NHS reform, labour market deregulation and social security safety net shrinkage around the Lib Dems necks.

    BTW did anyone notice in that ComRes poll on the Olympics that 67% of Scots thought that the Olympic games improved Britains image around the world? Similar to what Sir Chris Hoy said when proclaiming he was ‘proud to be British and proud to be Scottish’. Perhaps I’ll get my Federal UK after all!

    EdM still behind Cameron though in recent PM polls which I find- given coalition chaos and the longevity of thr truly terrible economic news- frankly quite amazing.

  17. Amber

    We must stop agreeing so often. This is supposed to be a political site. :-)

  18. House of Lords Reform?

    Yes, I’d love to live in a UK which was actually a full democracy. We bomb people for less…

  19. ROB SHEFFIELD

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5hSlc9Nvbs6EpSk9TiGqoU0YlHh7g?docId=N0419861344783863180A

    Indeed, you may get your Federal UK – but not as a result of the Olympics, the Jubilee or other flag waving events. You would be better to press for a second question.

  20. Of all the proposals the Lib/Dems have come up with I was personally hoping the Lords Reforms would had gone through.

    I might be out of tune with those sucking on Werther’s Originals and sipping Earl Grey tea but the site of 300 + decrepit old dinosaurs snoozing and grunting away at the tax payers expense is just sickening!!

  21. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Oh, come now! Not all MPs are “decrepit old dinosaurs”. :-)

  22. Oldnat

    “might need a second question”

    Well I have always beleived that would be the most fairest option and I would anticipate that Wales will also havoc a referendum within the next decade on a level of powers/ authority similar to Scotland.

    But it does look like Dave is pushing for only an in-out question: can’t say I am surprised given the polls- even the one in your link shows a 9 point lead on a 800 person (moe 3.5%) survey for status quo.

  23. OldNat

    The same question is actually in the Sunday Times YouGov – though of course that’s asked across the whole of Britain (p11):

    What effect, if any, has Britain’s Olympic success had on your attitude towards Scottish independence?

    Total more support 5% (11%), more opposed 10% (14%), “Has not made any difference to my views on
    Scottish independence” 67% (71%). Don’t know 18% (5%).

    Figure in brackets Scottish cross break (148) with usual warnings.

    I suspect even those giving an answer one way or the other are mainly people with strong pre-existing views who want to make a point. On both sides ‘much more’ gets a stronger score than ‘a little more’ which is the reverse of normal.

  24. “have a” not ‘havoc’ :-)

    Bloody iPad (not a Jungian slip honest)

  25. OLDNAT

    “Oh, come now! Not all MPs are “decrepit old dinosaurs”.
    __________

    Well this is true but it’s the yins who end up in the Lords.. ;)

  26. Roger Mexico

    You can look at the the polls and stats etc but the last big flag waving event we had before an election, the Royal Wedding, returned a majority SNP government.

    Lets hope the the Queens Jubilee and Olympics feel good factors lasts up until 2014.. ;)

  27. @Amber Star – fpt…”None of the Tory chancellors were good enough to have had overwhelming voter support”

    This IpsosMORI archive amply backs up your contention:

    h
    ttp://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/38/Satisfaction-With-The-Chancellor-since-1976.aspx?view=wide

  28. Allan Christie

    […] the site of 300 + decrepit old dinosaurs snoozing and grunting away at the tax payers expense is just sickening!!

    No, no. The “site of 300 + decrepit old dinosaurs” is us.

    Actually there’s about 775 or so members of the Lords- the coalition created 117 new ones in its first year. You can see why so many people in the Westminster bubble are against reform – it’s where they go when they die.

  29. Sorry for (the the) typos..

  30. ROGER MEXICO

    Yes. I’d seen that question in the YG poll (answered it myself as “has not made any difference”). I assumed Anthony hadn’t phrased it.

    There is a political debate to be had (though without a saltire in the header, this isn’t the place) about politicians assumptions as to what will affect the referendum.

    In general, however, that emotional euphoria doesn’t seem to affect voting patterns in GB seems to me to be an excellent situation.

  31. ROGER MEXICO

    “The “site of 300 + decrepit old dinosaurs” is us.”

    LOL :-)

  32. ROGER MEXICO

    “Actually there’s about 775 or so members of the Lords- the coalition created 117 new ones in its first year. You can see why so many people in the Westminster bubble are against reform – it’s where they go when they die.”
    _______

    Yes indeed I suppose it would be like turkeys voting for Christmas. ;)

  33. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Maybe we should adjust that analogy. Turkey farmers enthusiastically vote for Xmas.

    Why so many of us turkeys enthuse about farmer X, while deprecating farmer Y is the puzzlement.

  34. One wonders if,when Ed Milliband becomes prime minister Rob Sheffield
    Will have the nobility to fall on his meterphorical sword?

  35. Good Evening all, a strange closing ceremony?

    ROGER MEXICO.

    The introduction of ‘directed time’ into schools, combined with the 1980’s Government declaration that teachers are paid for 32 hours a week work, excluding preparation and marking time, drove many teachers out of the voluntary activities such as sports teams.

    Great pity.

  36. @Rob Sheffield – “May 2013 locals”

    We have reaching a low in the cycle… I’m guessing both coalition parties may be able to spin the 2013 locals as no big deal, or even a big success. They are pretty much exclusively confined to England, and are disproportionately a South of England affair:

    Zero Metropolitans,
    26 Tory County councils + 1 NOC,
    8 Unitaries (3 Tory, 3 NOC, 1 Labour)

    1 council election in Wales (Isle of Anglesey, NOC).

  37. Oldnat et al

    Would this be the promised independence referendum? If so, I suspect that there isn’t going to be one, so not worth fretting over too much…

  38. CHRISLANE1945

    “a strange closing ceremony?”

    I liked Pete Wishart’s tweet –

    Imagine. This is good. Though “imagine there’s no countries” would be a bit self defeating for the Olympics.

  39. Oh dear.

    Murdo Fraser isn’t amused by the closing ceremony –

    Murdo Fraser ?@murdo_fraser
    Imagine. How on earth is this appropriate?

    Or maybe he’s just seen the polling?

  40. The closing ceremony is ….

    oh dear!

    What a shame.

  41. OLDNAT

    Aye poor old farmer Y ;)

  42. landocakes
    Oldnat et al

    Would this be the promised independence referendum? If so, I suspect that there isn’t going to be one, so not worth fretting over too much
    __________

    Olympic withdrawal symptoms already? ;)

  43. The US right wing are going to be incensed (again) that London 2012 was a deliberate insult to them – Life of Brian! :-)

  44. Loving the Indian dancing (with Eric Idle) in the closing ceremony.
    Special request for Cameron maybe?

  45. Off Topic. Please, how can I get a Labour Party background for my posts. Thank you in anticipation.

  46. DAVID J. BARRATT

    Hover your mouse over “UKPollingReport” in the black line at the top, and click “Dashboard”. Select “Profile”, then Extended Profile”. Pick your party background from the drop down list.

    If that isn’t available to you, you’ll need to ask Anthony to do it for you.

  47. Closing ceremony. Worst. “Glee”. Episode. Evah.

    Regards, Martyn

  48. Re Lords reform the Lib Dems proposals seem to be based on the idea that any reform is good reform, They proposed a horrid dogs breakfast that would be scarcely more democratic than the present arrangement. Though for some reason they wanted to keep the Bishops, who should have been the first to go in any meaningful reform. Only Iran reserves seats for clerics in Parliament.
    In fact Clegg’s proposals were so bad conspiracy theorists might say they were meant to fail.

  49. OldNat;

    “Insult” That’s a nice bonus then.

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