Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 8% – still very much in line with the recent YouGov average Labour leads of 9 to 10 points.

The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph meanwhile is their usual “wisdom index”, that asks respondents to predict the shares of the vote at the next election rather than say how they will vote. The average prediction is Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 17%.


110 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. The ICM wisdom index, has it changed since last month?

  2. Amber

    Looks identical to me. But then the “wisdom of crowds” may have determined that the Olympics dominated everything, so nothing was likely to change – just as nothing significant happened to change their predictions since the initial wisdom index.

  3. Well done Mo.

    An incredible achievement. A wonderful wave of national pride.

    It was a privilege to see Mo & the Jamaican relay team tonight.

    Unforgettable.

    :-) :-) :-)

  4. Colin

    There have been many outstanding performances. If one is allowed a touch of humorous disrespect, there’s this internet joke tonight

    Rangers have asked for the ribbon from the end of Mo Farahs 5000 metre race, claiming it to be “the sash mo farah wore”.

  5. @ Old Nat

    Yes, I thought ICM wisdom index had been at 31 38 17 since its inception. We’re not going to change our minds, just because ICM keep asking. :-)

  6. OLD NAT

    :-)

    Might be the sash Sir Mo Farah wore.:-)

    Yes-many, many-the whole thing has been wonderful..

    Michael Johnson said this evening on tv that this was the greatest athletics meeting he has ever seen.

  7. Amber

    I think there’s enough in the idea of the “wisdom of crowds” to persist with this style of polling, though.

    That the crowd sees the political silly season as a time when opinions don’t change much may, itself , be a sign of their perception!

    Once politics returns to its normal diet of gaffes, errors and general stupidities on all sides, the crowd’s perceptions of how others are affected by them may prove useful.

  8. @ Old Nat

    I’ll be LMAO if it stays at 31 38 17 all the way to the election & that’s the actual result. :-)

  9. @Amber,

    “I’ll be LMAO if it stays at 31 38 17 all the way to the election & that’s the actual result.”

    It’s very unlikely to IMO.

  10. On the wisdom index numbers the swingometers say:

    With boundary changes:
    216, 327, 33, 9 Labour 54 seat majority

    Without boundary changes:
    219, 362, 42, 9 Labour 74 seat majority

  11. Amber

    My only real problem with the concept is that it is reminiscent of those appalling game shows where people get prizes for guessing the answers that most people gave.

    They are so similar to how modern elections are run! :-)

  12. @ Ambivalent

    Yeh, if it was likely then it wouldn’t be LMAO funny. ;-)

  13. @Old Nat

    I’m not a fan of game shows & quiz shows. They’re ever so boring & afterwards I can’t remember anything that happened during the show.

  14. Amber

    That’s what I said – just like elections. :-)

  15. ON:

    No one “won” but the result was a coalition
    [hope that helps]

  16. @Old Nat, Paul

    LOL :-)

  17. Labour have not been below 40 in YG polling since 2/3/2012.

    They have been consistently 42% + and the Tories have been mostly at 34% or less.

    The failed budget, u-turns and double dip have clearly switched some away from the Tories to UKIP or don’t knows. I don’t think Labour have picked up these and Labour are relying on a percentage of people that have switched from the Lib Dems.

    It will be interesting going forward, as to what things will influence these switchers as to how they will vote. In my opinion it might actually be in the Tories interest to concede many policy decisions to the Lib Dems, so that some of the switchers to Labour, return to the Lib Dems. As long as they don’t concede on EU matters, then most of the Tory core votes should hold up.

  18. Amber

    Thanks for the link.

    I noted this “none of them has in any way benefited from the successes of Great Britain’s athletes at the Olympics despite high-profile appearances at several events by leading politicians.”

    Did anyone really imagine (except for some nerdy SPADs) that anyone would imagine that politicos trying to associate themselves with the achievements of athletes would bring them kudos?

  19. Congratulations to both Mo Farah for winning gold in the 5000m and Tom Daley for winning Bronze in the men’s 10m diving!! Very exciting. :)

  20. I’d be interested in seeing some polling for Sports Personality of the Year…

  21. Guy on BBC News channel thinks poll says 70% want Boris as PM.

    Suggests that the Beeb recruits its commentators from the “crowd of unwisdom”. :-)

  22. good evening all after a nice grumpy men’s night out.

    Lib Dems doing very well on both polls.

    OLD NAT.
    The song finishes I think with charming references.

  23. Lead on last 10 YouGovs: 10.0%

    Frequency: 8%(2), 9%(2), 10%(1), 11%(4), 12%(1).

  24. @Old Nat

    Somebody quoted that 71% thing on the Labour List website. Is the BBC giving any hint where it somes from?

  25. CHRISLANE1945

    “The song finishes I think with charming references.”

    I presume that you are referring to “The Sash”? If so, that was the point of the joke – and humour is the best weapon against the sectarian eejits.

  26. Amber

    No. There was just a vague comment from someone else that it might be a particular group who thought that (“cross break” would be far too technical a term for the Beeb!)

  27. @ Old Nat

    …it might be a particular group who thought that.
    ————–
    Ah, maybe even one of those groups which have a little * beside them.

    Q: What’s that * for, then?
    A: Oh, it’s ‘cos they think Boris is a star. :roll:

  28. @Amber Star

    That’s an interesting poll and reinforces my view that Johnson’s electoral appeal is fairly limited. I think he’s one of those sort of politicians who attracts and repels in equal measure. Accordingly, his net beneficial effect may well be negligible. The successful politicians in this non-political age have tended to be Everyman figures like Blair. Johnson isn’t in that vote-winning league, I don’t think, certainly not on a national scale. He refreshes fairly limited and specific parts of the electorate, and I don’t think we should assume that people who are amused by his periodic episodes of tomfoolery will necessarily vote for him in a serious election.

    Still, you can understand Conservatives getting all excited about his alleged potential as their electoral saviour. When solace is in short supply, you have to gain succour where you can.

    Or should that read “sucker”! lol

  29. Amber

    LOL :-)

  30. @ Old Nat

    “Did anyone really imagine (except for some nerdy SPADs) that anyone would imagine that politicos trying to associate themselves with the achievements of athletes would bring them kudos?”

    I’d feel embarassed if I was a politician and did something like that. Also, it’s a little weird that it does bring them kudos. I mean, unless, it’s the politician tipping their hat to the great player. Franklin Roosevelt did that for Joe DiMaggio but that wasn’t his attempt to associate with Joe DiMiaggio, that was him acknowledging how great he was.

    JM is a good athlete but he’s too obsessed with football which he’s not very good at. He needs to focus on his running, where he is really good.

  31. Mo Farah’s double is quite something. MashaAllah. I know kenenisa bekele did it four years ago, but Kenenisa along with Haile Gabresalasie, is probably the greatest distance runner ever. In Olympic terms, Mo is now a great too.

    If only Helsinki 1952 had had this degree of media coverage. What would the pundits have made of an athlete who had won the 5k, the 10k and the Marathon?

    And what kind of all round athlete do you have to be to win the modern pentathlon?

  32. SOCALLIBERAL

    I don’t think there is any evidence that such things do give any kudos to politicians.

    Certainly, politicians (especially if they are First Minister or equivalent) should congratulate great athletes from their area (and wider – who wouldn’t want to congratulate someone like Usain Bolt?) on their achievements – but, other than that, they should butt out.

    “JM is a good athlete” – Jim Murphy? I will resist making a gymnastics analogy. I will resist. I will ….

  33. I wonder if the wisdom responders expect EM to unveil some distinctly centre-left policies (like Hollande) in the next couple of years? Despite the enthusiasm of the Labour left, that’s obviously the sort of thing that should get those UKIP supporters back behind the Tories, and also possibly return some LD voters to where they came from.

    I think EM is wise enough to know how far he can go, and that really is not very far left of centre. He is not Blair, and he is pitching to get Labour back in office not after 18 years, but much sooner, and the last time they were in power, there was the start of the economic troubles we are still in.

  34. @ Old Nat

    “I don’t think there is any evidence that such things do give any kudos to politicians.

    Certainly, politicians (especially if they are First Minister or equivalent) should congratulate great athletes from their area (and wider – who wouldn’t want to congratulate someone like Usain Bolt?) on their achievements – but, other than that, they should butt out.”

    I have no problem with cities giving victory parades for their teams and Mayors standing there for it. I think it’s really nice too when leaders of countries give nice shoutouts or make congratulatory phone calls to athletes who win. Or honoring people at White House ceremonies. I’m all fine with that.

    Claiming credit for any of their victories is bad. The news media giving them credit for those victories….makes my eyes roll even more at them.

    Do sports victories help politicians or defeats hurt politicians? I don’t know. I’d tend to doubt it. The summer Olympics is held every single Presidential election year. And right before the election too. Yet I’ve never seen anything to show a good or bad Olympic performance influences voting intentions here at all.

  35. KEITHP

    I think you are correct. However, that is what I find infinitely depressing about GB politics.

    “Once upon a time” political parties presented alternative strategies to the people. That really doesn’t happen in GB any more.

    Both the major parties try to create PR (public relations) positions that will keep the support of those who have tribal associations with the brand label, while creating policy positions which will attract centrist votes.

    That can create problems with those who actually want “their” party to support their views, as is shown by Tories heading to UKIP, both? to BNP in England, the drop in SLab support etc. We might see similar in Scotland as the SNP tries to drop its opposition to NATO.

    What remains are marketing opportunities for “parties” which may be no more dissimilar than the GB parliamentary factions during the time of Lord North.

  36. SOCALLIBERAL

    “The summer Olympics is held every single Presidential election year.”

    I’d forgotten that coincidence. Given the importance of sports in US culture, it might be assumed that if the association of sporting success with politics doesn’t happen in the USA, it won’t happen anywhere (except perhaps Australia).

  37. @SoCalLiberal

    Do you think that Mitt Romney’s choice of running mate will help or hinder his chances of winning the Presidential election? Is his choice as right wing as people say? I always thought the VP pick was meant to do two things – help raise money and “balance” the ticket. Given Mitt’s lurch to the right, will a right win VP unbalance the ticket and guode Independents into the hands of Obama?

  38. SoCalLiberal

    I’d also be interested in your response to RAF’s post. My presumptions were similar.

  39. SoCalLiberal will not doubt respond, but he did give a good analysis two threads back.

    @SoCalLiberal – “This guy is a firm believer in Ayn Rand.”

    It may be a bit simplistic, but… Ayn Rand = and Ryan.

  40. @SOCAL

    Re your comment about Paul Ryan on the last thread.

    Just seen on Sky News Romney’s introduction of Paul Ryan as “next President”.

    IMO, adding this gaff to his other gaffs, including those on his recent trip to UK, Poland and Israel makes him even more of a laugh than Bush jnr., somethingI would have thought impossible.

    If Obama can’t beat this guy then I fear for the US and the rest of the world.

    Is the latest polling still favouring Obama?

  41. @Peter Bell – “… adding this gaff to his other gaffs”

    He’ll be telling is how to spell “potatoe” next.

  42. Isn’t the Romney strategy to have Paul out on the right so that Romney himself can move the center but keep the rightwing votes?
    8-)

  43. @Billy Bob (1.45)

    Pointe takene, but then I am not attempting to become US president. – :)

  44. I don’t think David Cameron has been trying to align himslef with the athletes’ success, I think that the polls which show he is ‘out of touch’ have got to him. So he wants to look like an ordinary chap, enjoying the Olympics like the rest of us.

    His Tweet of himself watching the sport on telly was supposed to appeal to ordinary voters. Of course he was ridiculed for it; it was such an obviously posed PR shot his PR guy should be literally* shot!

    * That one’s for Croftee-hee. ;-)

  45. Shooting’s too good for him AS.

  46. In another reality check for the London Mayor, he is ranked below Mr Cameron, and on the same level as Mr Miliband, when voters are asked who would make the best prime minister.

    Some 24 % pick Mr Cameron with 20 % opting both for Mr Johnson and Mr Miliband and Nick Clegg trailing well behind on just 6%.
    —————–
    David Cameron kept afloat by an incumbent bonus of just 4%.

    It’ll be a shock for the fans of Boris to see him polling on par with Ed “he’ll never be prime minister” Miliband. So much for Boris’s Olympic bounce; the Tory “titan” is looking a bit smaller today.
    8-)

  47. @AmberStar

    Previous Spainish PM José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero developed a reputation of turning up for sporting events where the Spanish player or team would promptly lose. An expression developed “Zapatero es gafe” (Zapatero is a jinx), and that then followed him around in the dog days of his last term in office. There was even a campaign to keep him away from major European and World finals where Spain had reach for fear he would adversely affect the outcome.

    Politicians don’t like to be associated with failure, even of the association is irrational. It can give the impression of haplessness, particularly when set against a difficult political and economic outlook. Is DC the new Zapatero? Not yet. But time will tell.

  48. “This guy is a firm believer in Ayn Rand.”
    I always find this interesting because either these guys have read a different Ayn Rand to me or they’re just using her as a simple figurehead to justify their traditional conservative-capitalist beliefs.

    Ayn Rand:
    “An embryo has no rights. Rights do not pertain to a potential, only to an actual being. Who can conceivably have the right to dictate to her what disposition she is to make of the functions of her own body?”
    Pro-Choice!

    Paul Ryan:
    “Grant the pre-born equal protection under 14th Amendment. Congress shall protect life beginning with fertilization.”
    Pro-Life!

    Ayn Rand:
    “I do not approve of such practices or regard them as necessarily moral, but it is improper for the law to interfere with a relationship between consenting adults.”
    Gay marriage!

    Paul Ryan:
    “Voted YES on Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage.”
    Traditional marriage!

    Ayn Rand:
    “All restrictions on drugs should be removed”

    Paul Ryan:
    “I do not believe that our nation would be best served by eliminating the penalties for marijuana usage.”
    etc

    Ayn Rand believed in a minarchist government – which includes staying out of social issues.
    And while it’s obvious that people can have views opposing their political heroes (most marxists are now gradualists, etc), what separates these socially conservative ‘Ayn Rand’ followers and any traditional laissez-faire conservative?

    YouGov!
    Approval – 23 (-2)
    Dissapproval – 61 (-1)
    Net: -38 (-1)
    So within MOE, No change.

    Approvals –
    Cameron -21 (nc)
    Miliband -21 (nc)
    Clegg -56 (-1)
    Again. No change.

    “Do you think David Cameron was right or wrong to cancel the plans to introduce an elected House of Lords?”
    Right – 34
    Wrong – 42

    “Do you think Nick Clegg is right or wrong to vote against the plans to cut the number of MPs and redraw the Parliamentary boundaries?”
    Right – 34
    Wrong – 41

    Completely unsurprisingly, these answers end up based on partisan breakdown – Lab and Libs oppose Cameron and support Clegg. The opposite is true for Conservatives.

    Lots of questions and answers on the Olympics and sports to digest also.

    Sun/Politics tweeted that there will be a YouGov poll showing Boris would be a big vote-winner if he was Tory leader and should be out today – but it isn’t in the ST poll and nothing has been released yet.

  49. KEITHP
    “there was the start of the economic troubles we are still in”
    Where was and what was?
    My current work on the ‘rationality of the peasants’ in Cambodia, but find the same rules apply in UK. The property systems of both countries, and thus the lives and wealth of households, were seriously damaged by the global crisis arising from bank manipulations of the global financial systems. The mass of the population in both countries are reliant on stability in their markets, including job markets, and only secondarily on the competence and behaviour of their governments. We have the advantage of being able to apply rationality to choosing which party and which system will restore institutional stability to our economy and livelihoods; it is that rather than the bricolage of image management seen in DC’s placing himself next to Amir Khan at the EXCEL Centre that lies behind voting intentions.

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