YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 44, LD 10, UKIP 6
6 Aug 2012
Today’s YouGov poll for the Sun is a rather unexciting CON 34%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 6%.
The overwhelming majority of the poll was carried out before Nick Clegg’s statement this afternoon. It will be interesting to see what impact it has, if any. I wouldn’t necessarily expect it to show up in voting intention anyway given these are hardly issues of great public salience, but given the sheer dominance of the Olympics on news coverage I’m intrigued to see whether or not it shows up in questions where we should expect it to, such as perceptions of how the coalition partners are working together, how long the coalition will last and so on.
Filed under: Voting Intention, YouGov
@ Colin
“2012 ( to date) 70 including 22 Gold-ranked 3rd.”
Not sure where the other medals are because the count stands at 22 gold, 13 silver & 13 bronze.
DM in exaggeration tale shocker…. :-)
MIKEMS
I agree that the sale of so many school playing fields has been a huge error.
AMBER
@” The legacy of the games should be: Sport is for everybody.”
Yes-I agree.
But the effect is achieved by inspiring young people:-
Making them sit up and notice a sport they were not previously aware of.
Giving them young role models who they feel they can emulate.Particularly young sportspeople who have come from ordinary backgrounds & overcome personal adversity.
That is how you get kids away from their computers-by making them think -wow that looks good, I could do that, where do I have to go?-and pester their parents to help them find out.
@Jack – I broadly agree with your second and third paragraphs, but in my view your first paragraph is veering dangerously close to nonsense.
There certainly some sports that are restricted in there uptake – horsey stuff, rowing, sailing. But bear in mind we have won many more medals in cycling than rowing, our boxers are already guaranteed 5 medals so are ahead of the horses and sailors combined, and the athletes are going to do likewise.
What is really great about our performance in these Olympics is that we are performing well in so many sports, only a very few of which could actually be considered as restricted to the ‘elite’ – and even here, the funding is allowing sports like rowing to search out talent from a far wider background.
I’m very happy to see lots of lottery money go into elite sport. That isn’t the same as saying ‘sport is elite’ – far from it.
Indeed, my take on our success is that it demonstrates how successful we can be as a nation when we enable people from a much wider social range to access the support they need to develop their full potential – in sport or in anything else. I see this as the very opposite of the elitism you seem to be implying.
CHORDATA
THanks-I double counted the Golds !!
Revised section of my post now reads :-
Then came Atlanta 1996- 15 medals including 1 Gold -ranked 36th.
Lottery Funding for UK sport started in 1994.
Since when :-
2000 Sydney 28 including 11 Gold-ranked 10th
2004 Athens 31 including 9 Gold-ranked 10th
2008 Beijing 47 including 19 Gold-ranked 4th
2012 ( to date) 48 including 22 Gold-ranked 3rd.
Well spotted.
My apologies :-)
ALEC
@”Indeed, my take on our success is that it demonstrates how successful we can be as a nation when we enable people from a much wider social range to access the support they need to develop their full potential – in sport or in anything else. I see this as the very opposite of the elitism you seem to be implying.”
I agree with that so very much.
It is manifest in these Games.
@ The Sheep
“Not as impressive an anecdote as Amber’s, but:
When I was 13 the school held a trial for a cross country match, the top eight people would be selected we were told. I ran my heart out, helped by the fact that many of the faster runners decided to walk up a hill. I came sixth. But when the team was selected I wasn’t even reserve.
I still don’t know what to make of that one…”
Maybe it was just coach favoritism. It happens.
I should share my memorable story. It was the last waterpolo game of the season my 9th grade year. It had been a tough, gruelling, and emotionally difficult season for me. I started off in a terrible position that season. But at the end, I was finally hitting my stride. So unlike past games where I had gotten minimal playing time (a few minutes in the 4th quarter after we were already assured of winning), I got significant playing time, playing 3 out of 4 quarters in a large victory. I didn’t score but my defensive abilities were good and I was keeping my head in the game.
However, I had a problem and that was an old and wearing cap (required wear for the game). It kept coming loose and falling off of me even though I kept tying it. At one point, the ref put me out of the game for 30 seconds as a result. The assistant coach (who coached the junior varsity team) was starting to get annoyed. So I tied the cap as tightly and intricately as I possibly could. This time, it stayed on for good and there were no more problems.
So the game ends. We’ve won by a large margin. I’m feeling really good about the game and about my playing time and overall seasonal improvement. So now we’re all waiting for the varsity game to start and this is the point where players take off their caps and change into regular dry clothing.
Well, wouldn’t you know it, I go to take off my cap and I can’t. I can’t get it loose. A few of my teammates try to help me take it off, they can’t. The assistant coach tries, he can’t. Then the head coach (a really gruff guy who uttered cuss words every other sentence) notices the curious situation and tells me to jump back in the water to loosen it up. Well he wasn’t the brightest guy and this made it worse. Well now, a few members of the varsity team are trying to help me take off the cap. They’re not succeeding. Now the two co-captains of the varsity team try to help and become preoccupied with trying to get my cap off while the entire varsity team is surrounding. They’re unable to untie he cap and now focused on the cap, they’re no longer preparing for the game which is about to begin. The head coach starts to get angry at this spectacle and nearly erupting into a rage (something he did quite often), tells me that we’ll worry about the cap after the game and tells the players to get ready for the game.
Well the varsity game begins and I’ve still got the cap on and am trying to figure out what to do (my dad has come to pick me up from the game and is wondering what’s going on). Well, luck would have it, one of the varsity player’s dad who was attending the game happenned to be a surgeon. Using some of his medical surgical tools, he managed to untie the cap (which is fortunate or else I might still be wearing it).
More Clousseauesque than anything but still a memory I have.
@Colin – thanks. I don’t want to labour the point, but I have been wondering whether part of the negative polling effect we have seen on Tory VI could be down to the ‘everyman’ effect, as voters see large numbers of people from ordinary backgrounds putting in excellent Olympic performances and contrast this with the performance of a less socially diverse political leadership. However, I suspect I’m over egging things a bit if I seriously try to argue this point too strongly.
I am watching the lovely Dutch and NZ girls slugging it out in the hockey.
In NL, sports in schools is a non event, just looked upon as physical education sessions. The real action takes place outside schools with every village providing opportunities for sports, especially football, In my village of about 2500 inhabitants we had about 12 different football teams at every age level including girls (for which I became trainer – ahem!). Same for other sports.
All this provision fully funded by taxation. It’s the money wot won it.
Alec and Colin
I really doubt that there is a class war issue here but do note my post and the consequences of investment or otherwise in health of the nation. It’s not the medals so much as the general feeling of belonging to society that is an important factor (IMO).
Good Afternoon All.
Back from Tuscany/Toscana. Siena is the best place.
Very much enjoying the Olympics, and the achievements of actually running such a good games. We used to be ‘The Sick Man of Europe’ when I was a student and young teacher.
ON SCHOOL SPORT.
i. My Generation of young teachers, 1978, were all expected to take a team.
ii. That all got stopped by Unions and Government in the mid 1980′s when contracts were written, specifying ‘directed time.
iii. In ‘mid career’ now, as Ken Clarke says, I have been inspired to take a team once more, next school year. Girls soccer.
Just seen the news about Mrs Mensch. Has there been a debate here?
Poor Nick Clegg. Badly treated he has been.
Hmmm…wondering whether I’m being a bit hasty in dismissing a link between Olympic success and falling government support. Just watched the BBC news, and their headline story is a direct comparison of sporting success and economic gloom.
ALEC
@”However, I suspect I’m over egging things a bit if I seriously try to argue this point too strongly.”
I certainly agree !!
Aren’t people just p**ssed off with their financial situation?
Wonder why the Government doesn’t fix it?
-I fear Cons are headed for a Sargasso Sea of inertia in public opinion. If you pay any heed to MK today ( & quite a few journalists seem to have stopped doing so) this isn’t going to change anytime soon.
I think the one bright spot economically, is the fall in inflationary pressure. I have thought all along that this was doing the damage to consumer spending. Lack of security & confidence too of course-but the squeeze on available spending power was significant. I know it has been for me.
But-how much does that translate into better support for the Government?-probably not much.
Provided unemployment doesn’t get significantly worse, I think the economic front =VI stasis till the end of this Parliament.
So DC needs something else -a game changer.
I don’t know where its going to come from though. The reshuffle must bring in fresh new faces from the 2010 intake. There are some bright sparks there that look & sound good on the telly-but if rebels are to be ignored that will be a bad sign.
Then there is the LibDems. I do fear that two years long faces from Clegg, Hughes & Cable will put the tin hat on it. The only possible flip side to that is a DC GE campaign telling us of all the usefull things they stopped him doing.
But it’s all getting a bit iffy from my point of view.
I expect you are quite chipper -& may well become more so before long .
:-(
HOWARD
@” am watching the lovely Dutch and NZ girls slugging it out in the hockey.”
Me too :-)
Will be watching the lovely British & Argentine girls later.
What a great game-what great gels !
YouGov Poll -
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/u5da2ya6bb/YG-Archive-Coalition_AWcommentary-080812.pdf
Who has gained most from the coalition?
The Conservatives -
All – 52
Cons voters – 35
Libs – 67
2010 Cons – 30
2010 Libs – 69
The LibDems -
All – 23
Cons voters – 44
Libs – 16
2010 Cons – 46
2010 Libs – 13
Have the Cons kept to their side of the coalition agreement?
Mostly Yes/Mostly No-
All – 30/51
Cons voters – 68/15
Libs – 24/68
2010 Cons – 61/20
2010 Libs – 17/67
Have the Libs kept to their side of the coalition agreement?
Mostly Yes/Mostly No-
All – 45/32
Cons voters – 44/36
Libs – 75/15
2010 Cons – 39/40
2010 Libs – 61/21
How like would you like the coalition to last? (Con/Lib/2010Con/2010Lib)
End now – 48% (26/22/35/43)
One or Two years – 8 (13/18/12/10)
Until just before GE – 11 (16/28/14/16)
Until the GE – 17 (34/19/26/16)
Beyond the next GE – 3 (4/8/4/2)
@ Colin
Your analysis of the UK’s increasing medal count ignores the collapse of all the institutions & teams which supported sport in the USSR & other Soviet bloc nations.
I’d hypothesise that had some bearing on the matter. I don’t have time at the moment to do any ‘scientific’ research on this. If somebody does have time to compare how those nations compare over the same period as Colin’s analysis, I’d be interested to see the result.
8-)
@Amberstar – there is an impact of the fall of the USSR and eastern bloc – in 1976 USSR and East Germany gained 215 medals in total, and in 1980 this rose to 321 (boycott effect there) but in both those games China didn’t appear in the medals tables at all.
There are far more countries competing now anyway, so I suspect the fall of the Soviet Bloc has balanced the rise of China. Besides, in 2008 Russia was third overall in the medals table with 23 golds. GB currently sits third with 22, with Russia in fifth on 10. There isn’t much doubt that GB has materially improved over the last few Olympics.
@Alec
There is no reason why rowing needs to be ‘elite’ – once you have a boat it can last for a long, long time, and be used by multiple crews. It doesn’t require personal expenditure (unlike football, or even running)…
When I was rowing in the North East we regularly rowed against a crew from Cambois Rowing Club – one of them was unemployed, one was working in Ashington, and two were at a local Comp. Hardly elite.
Where it does suffer, rather like tennis, is in the attitude of some clubs – and that is something that can be addressed.
THESHEEP.
Agree very much with you about tennis clubs.
The cost of tennis coaching is very high however.
@Alec
Russia has more overall medals than the UK, but, obviously fewer golds
ALEC
Thanks.
I agree with your last sentence. The evidence is clear.
“The country’s greatest Olympian expressed his pleasure at competing alongside athletes from the rest of the UK.
He said he was “frustrated” in getting drawn into the political battle over the SNP’s plans to create a separate Scotland but concluded that he was “very proud” to be part of Team GB.”
I would have thought Hoy’s word was now definitive.
It would certainly take a brave politician to disagree with him.
Some moons ago, a good number of pundits were stating that high inflation was going to help the government reduce the deficit. No one is now bemoaning falls in the rate. Has the political/economic climate changed such that deficit reduction is now secondary to forlorn attempts at getting spending going again?
CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 6%; APP -36
Ho hum