Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 43%, LD 10%, UKIP 8%. Still within the margin of error of the 9-10 point leads YouGov have been showing for a couple of months and definitely no sign of any Olympic boost for the government.

This morning there were also some Scottish YouGov figures for the Scottish Fabians. They had topline figures for Westminister voting intention in Scotland of CON 15%, LAB 43%, LDEM 7%, SNP 29%.


56 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 43, LD 10, UKIP 8”

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  1. @Jay Wiser

    Why the use of “Rupert”?

    “Boris” I can understand, at least in terms of following the herd.

  2. Billy Bob –

    Surely there is quite a difference between finishing up existing work as an MP whilst you get Mayoring for the first time, and clearly jumping ship from a big responsible job before you’ve finished to service longer term ambitions. It might be technically possible, but it wouldn’t look good, would it? And looking good has to be fairly vital to have any hope of achieving those aims, no?

    If cameron wins (in my view unlikely) in 2015, then surely he won’t face a leadership challenge? and if Labour win in 2015, then even if Boris does get parachuted in a fast track style into the leadership, he won’t be able to challenge for PM until 2020, by which time Rupert will surely be too old to be much of a formidable ally at 89 years old, and Boris may well have lost some of his lustre, buffoonery perhaps being slightly less appealing from a man approaching pensionable age.

  3. We are also poorer than the rest of the UK and perceive ourselves as such, so left-wing policies are not only in our own self-interest but also provide a philosophical basis for thinking that to pursue that self-interest is “social justice”. Notably, when it comes to the taxes that only we WE pay (Scottish council tax) we Scots on average suddenly become Thatcherites.

    (Of course, that doesn’t explain why we’re more socially liberal than the rest of the UK. Social liberalism and a sense of national solidarity is presumably the explanation for the triumph of left-wing politics in places like Hillhead, East Renfrewshire and Pentlands. Although these areas also extract rents from England.)

    Back in the 1940s and 1950s, Scotland was an unusually right-wing part of the UK, e.g. Scots were less enthusiastic about Labour in 1945 and unusually enthusiastic about the Tories in 1955. Deindustrialisation and the creation of various rent-extracting policies (regional policy, subsidies to dying industries etc.) moved Scotland to the left in the 1960s and 1970s.

    If we get independence and the opportunities for rent-extraction of the English are removed, I expect Scotland to move towards a fairly standard European pattern of politics, with an economically right-wing dominating the east once Angus and Margaret Fraser find their tax bills shooting up to subsidise Glaswegian social services. You may think I’m cynical, but haven’t they already done that with council tax via turning the north-east into an SNP heartland?

    Scottish left-wing politics would only be surprising if, unlike say the north-east of England, we voted for left-wing parties and were disproportionately prosperous like the south-east of England. Turkies voting for Christmas is surprising; small kids voting for Christmas is not. Put another way, if the Tories ever do disproportionately well in Newcastle and disproportionately badly in the home counties, then I shall be surprised by the regional voting patters in Britain.

    Landlords voting for rent-extraction is not surprising and regions for rent-extraction is not surprising either!

  4. Oldnat,

    That would be the analysis of Seawright, yes? I think the twist in that tale is that decentralisation is fundamentally anti-social democratic, which is why the Unionists had an edge in that period. Labour at that time was all about centralised public services, centralised nationalised industries, and the general policy that “The man in Whitehall knows best”.

    After Labour dumped all those ideas of socialism and national solidarity in favour of identity politics and regionalism, they could become the party of devolution. However, someone like Bevan would understand how devolution was hostile to his principles, unless you’re a very strong Scottish nationalist.

    Still, I think the economic argument is still the important one. Scotland was doing very well out of capitalism in the 1950s, ta very much, and people in Auchterader weren’t going to vote for a bunch of grubby socialists who wanted to spend their taxes on wild schemes of nationalisation and welfarism.

    (The Tories also had some statist regionalist policies e.g. Ravenscraig, with the genius idea of putting a steel mill miles inland when Scotland has great navigatable rivers and firths. It served them marginally well in 1959 and came back to bite them in 1997.)

  5. BILL PATRICK

    Quite possibly. I was impressed by the analysis when I came across it, but can’t track it down online now. Can you help?

  6. Lallands Peat Worrier has a good analysis of the Fabian poll.

    http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/westminster-independence-that-fabian.html

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