Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7% , so very much in the normal range of YouGov’s recent polling.

We are also due the monthly ComRes poll for the Independent tonight, but so far they have only press released a question on the Olympics, so I’m not sure whether or not the voting intention figures will be released tonight or held over. The Olympic question ComRes asked found 50% of people agreed that it was worth the money being spent it, up from 40% when the question was last asked in March.


172 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 44, LD 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. Stuart Dickson

    Remember in the UK the media are the Judge and Jury. ;)

  2. EDDIE.
    Thank you for the information about the lovely song.

    Connacht or Death, was Cromwell’s order.

  3. Fortunately Allan, every few years the people are the judge and jury.

    (Unless you are a YouGov respondent, in which case it is every few days. Yikes.)

  4. Stuart:

    I agree: without leaving doors wide open for abuse I think that generally the very most that is required is a police caution.

    The young guy who posted a”tweet” about the Bolton player, Muamba, was, I think, imprisoned and also lost his University place. What he wrote was pretty bad but the punishment was extreme.

    Perhaps some of my tongue-in-cheek references to Flanders and Swann’s “The English” will see me in court.

    Not to worry, if it does I have loads of conclusive evidence that we are best.

    Paul

  5. PAUL CROFT.

    Partisan or what? (smiley face)

    And I am listening to Sinead O’ Connor on You Tube singing the Foggy Dew.

  6. Paul,

    If you are looking for evidence that England is the best, here is a case for your dossier: the English countryside is so stunningly beautiful and talented that is can even do a walk-on role posing as another country:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2181484/Asda-promotes-Scottish-store-picture-English-rolling-hills-300-miles-away.html

  7. Orwell’s Homage to Catalonia on southern england was so brilliant and prescient.

  8. Her version of Lord Franklin is superb – as was the accompaniment, especially the violin.

    Apparently she burst into tears at the end.

    Unfortunately the video of the recording seeion [youtube] was pulled.

    PS

    Partisan?? Moi???

  9. How can the police caution somebody if they haven’t committed a crime?

  10. I think this tweetgate thing shows the sadly inuring effect the internet’s anonymity can have on people’s empathy, more than anything. But arresting the lad is a bit string! He’s 17, of course he’s an idiot.

    Speaking of which, was Max (King/Lord/Emperor of Kent) fully banned from here? I always enjoyed his contributions. Sort of.

  11. A bit *strong even. Not string.

  12. STUART DICKSON.

    I am not a betting man, but I think they might well be heading for single figures, very sadly, since they are honourable men.

  13. Meanwhile, a very big drop in incomes is reported by ONS on BBC website

  14. @Statgeek
    “Thought I’d just add…this is one Scot who enjoys the Olympics, and is trying not to polticise any of it. It’s supposed to be fun. If not, you’re a killjoy!”
    _______________________

    Am I not allowed to enjoy the Olympics whilst simultaneously enhancing the experience by moaning about the cost? It might as well be in Paris as in London for all the difference it makes to someone in the Midlands, let alone Scotland.

    Danny Boyle’s opening spectacle was fine, but why not just invent a pretext to bung him £30m every year to recreate a similar event to cheer us up in grim times, with ever more outrageous cameo appearances by HM Queen (abseiling? bungee jumping?). And a bit extra on top to Boyle to fund a sequel to Trainspotting wouldn’t go amiss (surely Begbie must be out of jail by now). That £9bn would have gone a long way. Might even have funded a bit of regeneration in the bits of the UK that really need it.

  15. Stuart: A guddun. However my dossier is overflowing and I would never knowingly upset the Scots. After all I was born in Bonny Scotland.

    To be fair I did demand a hasty retreat to Devon when I was just two but that was just because:

    1/ I didn’t realise they were speaking English.

    2/ The only month available seemed to be January.

    Nick: I’m not a legal expert and don’t understand your question but surely if the police have the powers of arrest they should have the power to visit and say

    ” ‘Ello, ‘ello. ‘ello. Stop tweeting or we’ll ‘ave you bang to rights next time my son [etc etc etc]”

    Which I would regard as a caution.

    I rest my case.

    ps
    I wonder what is most sickening: tennis or show-jumping commentary.

    “Oh!! I say!!!!!” [etc etc etc]

  16. PAUL CROFT

    ‘The final score at Croke Park is: 43-13.’

    Wonderful, and both anthems played as well. The Irish anthem is never played in your countries.

  17. Chris: Thought you were in Tuscany.

    The English habit of booing other anthems is appalling.

    43 -13 at what? We couldn’t have been trying

  18. King Max was great but I never felt it was right that 13 year olds should be encouraged to contribute to such an intellectual forum as this.

  19. Not looking good for UK economy for Q3 GDP. Apparently tourists, other than those who have come for the Olympics, have stayed away. Most London retailers and visitor attractions are reporting business way below the norm for this time of the year.

    Also many firms of builders and other companies involved in property related trades, are reporting a drop in business.

    I predict a continuing recession throughout the remainder of this year and into Q1 of 2013, possibly beyond. Some analysts are predicting a triple dip, but I don’t think there will be any positive growth until Q2 2013 at the earliest.

    Could be worse. India have growth, but they have lost electric power to half the country, with 380 million people affected. Apparenly there is too much electric being used.

  20. This twitter bloke sending offensive tweets. If it isn’t a crime, how can the police tell him to stop doing it?

    Surely twitter should kick him off? Otherwise just let him get on with it.

  21. The ComRes poll that Anthony mentions does show how quickly attitudes change:

    The latest poll suggests that last Friday’s opening ceremony made the public feel more positive about the Games. Only 43 per cent of those questioned on Friday before the ceremony began at 9pm agreed the Olympics would be worth the money, but the proportion rose to 53 per cent amongst those who answered after 9pm and over the rest of the weekend.
    Of those questioned on Saturday, 52 per cent thought the Games were worth it and on Sunday the figure rose to 57 per cent.

    Now there are obviously all sorts of provisos here to do with sample size and possible different make up of the sub-samples, but it’s a fairly dramatic difference to go from 43% v 49% against the Games being worth it, 53% v 39% in favour.

    I queried the YouGov figures when they showed a 9 point jump in only three days and they seem to have felt the same and asked the question again this for this Sunday to check (and got the same result). But this shows opinion can shift even quicker. Oh Danny Boyle indeed.

    That said, there’s nothing to say that a reaction the other way couldn’t be just as swift. The entirely predictable disastrous effect on London’s economy is already showing (though I suspect Transport for London’s attempts to warn everyone from coming within a thousand miles of London are not helping).

  22. Moody’s has warned that Britain could lose its triple-A rating if economic growth did not meet expectations, and if the country’s debt burden increased. The weaker economic environment could challenge the gov’s efforts to reduce debt in the coming years.

    Moody’s expects GDP to grow by 0.4% this year and 1.8% in 2013.

  23. SD reported from the poll

    ‘- “Do you think British troops are winning the war
    with the Taliban in Afghanistan, or not?”
    Yes 9%
    No 73%’

    The only possible answer was either ‘yes I do think about that’ or
    ‘no I don’t think about it’.

  24. @NickP

    From more recent reports, it appears that the teenager arrested was arrested for making death threats, not just trolling.

  25. Roger Mexico

    True. I had forgotten that there was an electorate of sorts.

  26. SD reported from the poll

    ‘- “Do you think British troops are winning the war
    with the Taliban in Afghanistan, or not?”
    Yes 9%
    No 73%’

    The only possible answer was either ‘yes I do think about that’ or
    ‘no I don’t think about it’.

    The question isn’t “do you think about it?” The question is do you think the British troops are winning. Don’t know seems a perfectly reasonable option to me.

  27. @ Stuart Dickson

    “Am I the only person feeling profoundly uneasy that the police are arresting a youth for a distasteful tweet. I have witnessed thousands of far more abusive things being said daily on the internet (eg. on blog threads). Are the police going to start arresting all those idiots too? The answer of course is: no. You are only at risk if you are abusive towards the British state and its representatives. Truly chilling stuff.”

    I hadn’t heard of this but I agree with you. And this is what happens when you start allowing speech to be restricted based on personal taste, popularity, and heckler’s vetoes. It is chilling stuff.

    “For the record, here is what the young (17 year old) daftie tweeted:

    – “‘You let your dad down i hope you know that.’

    Profoundly distasteful, but does it merit being arrested by the police?”

    No, it doesn’t. That’s ridiculous. Law enforcement officials who do something like that should be disciplined.

  28. Sorry, forgot @Howard at the beginning of that….

  29. @ Chris Lane

    “Agreed about the gymnasts.”

    It was disappointing to not see Ryan Lochte medal last night in his event. It’s sad because he’s all in his head now. He is so bummed out over blowing the U.S.’s lead in the 400 relay from Sunday against the French that it’s now affecting him in other races. He won a silver medal so he shouldn’t feel ashamed and he didn’t blow it so much as Yannick Agnel simply had an amazing performance.

    My mom has decided she likes him over Phelps.

    Of course the American male swimmers seem to be all about the drama. If Bravo could convince them to all live in a house together and film it, it’d probably be a fascinating reality show.

    The British men’s gymnasts seem to genuinely like each other.

    “Off to Tuscany for a period. Happy holidays.”

    Have fun! Tuscany has some of the best food in Italy.

  30. The only reason why they arrested the 17 year old about the tweet, was to create publicity that this type of behaviour was not acceptable. I can’t see them even cautioning him, because as far as I am aware he had not committed any crime.

    If there is any caution, then I would expect Frankie Boyle to have to report to the nearest Police station at the same time each day.

  31. @ R Huckle

    “Not looking good for UK economy for Q3 GDP. Apparently tourists, other than those who have come for the Olympics, have stayed away. Most London retailers and visitor attractions are reporting business way below the norm for this time of the year.”

    Well that makes sense and can’t really be blamed on the government’s economic policy. The entire global economy is struggling and on the fritz. It’s not surprising that there are fewer people who have the disposable income on hand to just head off to the UK for a trip. Plus a lot of people who might have that income might be more likely to save it during a time of economic hardship or they might be more likely to spend it in their own country.

    I’m curious if there are studies of where Brits take vacations. Because I’m always under the impression that Brits tend to leave the UK and vacation elsewhere. So the bad economy that led to a decline in disposable British income might not hurt Britain’s tourism industry so much as it might hurt Florida’s or Spain’s or Italy’s.

  32. “If there is any caution, then I would expect Frankie Boyle to have to report to the nearest Police station at the same time each day.”

    I’d support that…

  33. “Boris Johnson is taking media mogul Rupert Murdoch as his personal guest to watch Rebecca Adlington defend her 800?metre swimming gold medal this Friday, the Standard can reveal. The tycoon will attend with his wife Wendi Deng and other business leaders. The move by the Mayor, who initially described the phone hacking inquiry as “codswallop”, will infuriate opponents who have repeatedly tried to link him to Murdoch’s company News International.”

    On the contrary, if Johnson insists on displaying his true colours by hanging around with such a pariah, his opponents ought to be pleased. But I suspect that the Sunday Times won’t be commissioning a poll to check.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/rupert-murdoch-is-mayors-personal-guest-as-rebecca-adlington-goes-for-gold-7994449.html

  34. @ R Huckle

    “The only reason why they arrested the 17 year old about the tweet, was to create publicity that this type of behaviour was not acceptable. I can’t see them even cautioning him, because as far as I am aware he had not committed any crime.

    If there is any caution, then I would expect Frankie Boyle to have to report to the nearest Police station at the same time each day.”

    Well without reigniting the debate between TingedFringe and myself on the issue of fundamental rights, could you explain to me how it’s possible to arrest somebody for something that isn’t a crime?

    (I mean it happens here all the time but usually senior officers recognize the mistake and release the persons in custody immediately).

  35. @Nick P

    You aren’t given a caution, you have to accept a caution and it involves accepting guilt for the offence. People do it, even when the charge may be dubious, because they perceive them as consequenceless and they want to get out of the police station as quickly as possible. They’re a real trap for the unwary and in fact stay on you’re criminal record forever and can be shown to employers and used in court against you.

    h ttps://www.askthe.police.uk/content/q562.htm
    h ttp://www.direct.gov.uk/en/CrimeJusticeAndTheLaw/Beingstoppedorarrestedbythepolice/DG_196450

    Never accept a caution (or do anything else other than answer the basic booking in questions) with out speaking to a solicitor first.

  36. SOCALLIBERAL

    “Police Warning” has a different meaning in Scotland.

    Here it is simply a reminder that you have the right to remain silent, and is used, for example, in a situation where you report a traffic incident to the police, even though no one at that time is suggesting a criminal offence has occurred.

    The equivalent of the English Police Warning would be the “Formal Adult Warning” administered by the Police in consultation with the local procurator fiscal. A letter is sent to the person, who then has 28 days to respond to it by either accepting or refusing the warning. If the person refuses the warning, then the case will be reviewed again by the police and fiscal to decide on any further action.

    Formal warnings will be recorded for a period of 2 years by the Scottish Criminal Records office but they do not count as a conviction.

  37. @Norbold

    It’s the ‘or not’ that is confusing to a logician. Take it off and you avoid doubt or offer ‘are’ or ‘are not’. Perhaps they did, I did not look back..

  38. @R Huckle – “Not looking good for UK economy for Q3 GDP. Apparently tourists, other than those who have come for the Olympics, have stayed away. Most London retailers and visitor attractions are reporting business way below the norm for this time of the year.”

    While i wouldn’t go so far as saying the Olympics will dent overall GDP figures this quarter, the media do now seem to have discovered one of the more basic facts of Olympic life.

    When the games were won for London, politicians and the media immediately went into hyperdrive about how good this would be for the tourist trade, despite years of evidence that hosting the games actually hurts tourism in the actual season it takes place.

    That this is so shouldn’t come as any great surprise. The first reaction of host city tourism traders is to bang up prices, which puts many people off. Most of the actual competitors and hangers on are hosted in purpose built accommodation, so no boost there, and unless you are going to the games, the last place anyone would want to be now is London.

    As London is the premier starting and finishing point for huge numbers of overseas visitors touring the UK, tour operators who avoid London at this time are therefore also taking large volumes of high value trade from the regions. London in summer operates at around 95% occupancy anyway, so you get little gain there, but plenty of losses elsewhere where occupancy rates are lower.

    There is a boost from the Olympics, but I suspect this has already been seen through infrastructure construction. Tourism always takes a hit in the year of the games, but as it’s a great advert for the country, I would expect a future benefit in the next few years.

    The fact that this has hit the press now amuses me though. The ETB announced a 20.12% discount campaign about 6 months ago. You don’t discount in the tourist trade if things are looking good.

  39. SOCAL

    Here is an update. Given an harassment warning and the Police will be looking into his other communications, so he has to return to the Police station at a future date.

    http://news.sky.com/story/967096/teenager-held-over-tom-daley-tweets-given-warning

    The problem for me is that the Police will not have the resources to investigate every internet troll, so will just pick the ones in the media.

  40. PAUL CROFT.

    It was the rugby match v England; their first at Croke Park.

    Tuscany in the morning.

  41. CL – Right. I think the English often like to let the smaller nations win at rugger: its one of our many endearing national characteristics.

  42. @chrislane1945 – “I am listening to Sinead O’ Connor”

    This is a Rebel Song (“this is a love song”) would make for a suitable riposte to the Flanders and Swann twaddle:

    h
    ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbre5Fs9m8I&feature=related

  43. Team USA defeats Romania in Men’s Waterpolo 10-8. Although it might be a Pyrric victory as Tony Acevedo received a red card and may have to sit out the next game (which I think is against Great Britain actually……I’m going to have to be careful what I say here…..no trash talking). I don’t know what he’s thinking. This is his 4th (maybe 5th) Olympics. Though he might not be ejected from the next game, we’ll see.

  44. This is an article that will be of interest to some.

    Is gay marriage an election issue ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19072023

  45. R HUCKLE

    Interesting point by a Scottish lobby firm

    http://thegardenlobby.wordpress.com/

    on the effect on government consultations where there is fierce lobbying.

    “A consultation on the issue received 77,508 responses – the largest ever recorded in Scotland. For comparison the Scottish Government’s own consultation on the independence referendum received 23,000 responses. Some 64% of those who responded came out against same-sex marriage. However if the postcard campaigns and petitions [organised mainly by the RC Church] are removed from the total responses received, the result showed 65% in favour and 35% against. “

  46. RAF

    I suspect that the decision isn’t to protect Blair, but a wide range of politicos. For example, if the minutes contained comments that the Tories also thought that invading was a jolly good idea, then Grieve’s decision makes sense.

  47. @OldNat

    We KNOW that IDS supported invading for the purposes of regime change – that was his public position, so I doubt Grieve’s veto has anything to do with Tory sensitivities.

  48. I though someone had written “is gay marriage an erection issue?” and thought, I don’t really care.

  49. R Huckle

    “Is gay marriage an election issue ?”

    Not in Scotland. It will be old news by then. It will be enacted within the next eight months.

    “I”s have to be dotted and “T”‘s crossed and there is work to do, but it would be quite safe to book the venue for the second half of next year.

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