Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7% , so very much in the normal range of YouGov’s recent polling.

We are also due the monthly ComRes poll for the Independent tonight, but so far they have only press released a question on the Olympics, so I’m not sure whether or not the voting intention figures will be released tonight or held over. The Olympic question ComRes asked found 50% of people agreed that it was worth the money being spent it, up from 40% when the question was last asked in March.


172 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 44, LD 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. PAULCROFT

    Since the media don’t distinguish between Team GB and the UK, it’s hardly surprising that “most people” don’t realise the difference.

    Indeed, for most it wouldn’t really matter anyway. There is a tendency for people to support athletes with whom they can make some kind of connection.

    It’s the silly politicians trying to make silly points that annoy. No doubt, we’ll see the same from Scottish politicians at the Commonwealth Games – all trying to score points from matters that are wholly irrelevant to the political process.

  2. I used to do a bit of gymnastics in my youth – I still turn the odd cartwheel when Labour get a particularly good poll (I bet most of you thought it was a figure of speech!).

    I watched the men’s gymnastics. They did amazingly well to get into the medals. The rule which allowed the Japanese team to move up to silver seems a bit odd to people who aren’t very familiar with the sport.

    However, the Japanese team did not write the rules, so why the opprobium was visted on them is anybody’s guess.

    The mistake was a horrid way to end what had been a fantastic competition. Had it been straight to bronze for the GB men, we’d have been delighted! They really gave a splendid performance.
    8-)

  3. RAF

    Beijing was the same as now. I can’t remember what happened earlier. That the BOA would make inaccurate claims would not surprise me, however!

  4. RAF,

    – “This is the first Olympic games it just reads GB.”

    Hmmm… are you absolutely certain about that? Do you have images of “GB and NI” vests/uniforms etc at previous Olympics/Winter Olympics? I cannot recall ever seeing that.

  5. Stuart: The Queen certainly got her fingernails sorted out and Philip seemed to be reading when the camera was on him.

    Re. Rogge I was being ironic rather than optimistic. When you read all the words again though it is hard to see why the Scots, Welsh and Irish should find any offence it it whatsoever.

    Its clearly all sung affectionately……………..

  6. @Stuart Dickson

    Definitely 1992. I’ll check images

  7. OLDNAT

    Well I’m with Andrew Lloyd-Webber – NOTHING really matters.

    Well, Arsenal results apart of course.

    And playing Bach perhaps… but definitely the Arse.

  8. Oh, don’t get me wrong Paul: I love it! But then again, I am a huge P.G. Wodehouse fan. Agatha Christie, Shakespeare, the lot. The more quintessentially English the better as far as I am concerned.

    I am one of those rare Scots who strongly prefers the southern English. (Most of my compatriots seem to prefer northerners.)

    Samuel Johnson was another wonderfully English character who just loved being rude about the Scots. It used to be one of your national pasttimes, but has unfortunately gone out of fashion.

    Sublime, and very obviously affectionate:

    The rottenest bits of these islands of ours
    We’ve left in the hands of three unfriendly powers
    Examine the Irishman, Welshman or Scot
    You’ll find he’s a stinker as likely as not

    The English the English the English are best
    I wouldn’t give tuppence for all of the rest

    The Scotsman is mean as we’re all well aware
    He’s boney and blotchy and covered with hair
    He eats salty porridge, he works all the day
    And hasn’t got bishops to show him the way

    The English the English the English are best
    I wouldn’t give tuppence for all of the rest

    The Irishman now our contempt is beneath
    He sleeps in his boots and he lies through his teeth
    He blows up policemen or so I have heard
    And blames it on Cromwell and William the Third

    The English are moral the English are good
    And clever and modest and misunderstood

    The Welshman’s dishonest, he cheats when he can
    He’s little and dark more like monkey than man
    He works underground with a lamp on his hat
    And sings far too loud, far too often and flat

    The English the English the English are best
    I wouldn’t give tuppence for all of the rest

  9. RAF

    Not even Mary Peters in 1972 had GB & NI on her vest

    http://www.sporting-heroes.net/athletics/great-britain/mary-peters-1056/olympic-pentathlon-gold-at-1972-olympics_a09502/

    Perhaps you were affected by the reporting of her as “Great Britain & N. Ireland’s Mary Peters”.

    The more accurate understanding of that is that she was an Irish athlete who had chosen to compete for GB.

  10. PAULCROFT

    “Nothing Really Matters” – the copyright revenues do. Queen would be very upset that you want to give them to Lloyd Webber.

  11. STUART DICKSON

    Paul does like doing wind-ups. Underneath it all he does exhibit a quality of self-mockery.

    Quite refreshing to see that!

  12. @OldNat

    I’ve always been a big fan of athletics and certainly,recall major championships,where,the,vest,featured,the,words GB and,NI, at the,very least alongside,the,team, crest/logo.

    Even from recent memory I can recall Linford Christie wearing a few.

    I promise you, I haven’t merely imagined it :)

  13. The 1948 London games was presented as “Great Britain”, not as “Great Britain and Northern Ireland” or as “United Kingdom”.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/footysphere/4323564238/

  14. RAF

    Just where did Linford Christie where the logo? :-)

    GB & NI do compete as a team representing the UK state at some competitions – just not the Olympics.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain_and_Northern_Ireland_at_the_2011_World_Championships_in_Athletics

  15. But at the Olympics RAF? Or at some other meets?

    As far as I understand it, the BOA are strictly prohibited from calling it anything other than Great Britain. If they could call it United Kingdom then I’m sure they would, but they are not allowed to.

  16. Updated graphs:

    http://www.freefilehosting.net/geek30-7-12

    Have change the calendar months to recent six months. Have changed the regional MAD and party MAD history to 13 weeks.

    Thought I’d just add…this is one Scot who enjoys the Olympics, and is trying not to polticise any of it. It’s supposed to be fun. If not, you’re a killjoy! :D

  17. @Stuart,Dickson/OldNat

    Ah, yes. It’s possible it was at the World Athletics Championships rather than the Olympics.

  18. OldNat:

    I won’t have myself mocked – especially by someone like me.

    I think Lloyd Webber had similar lyrics… or was it Abba??

    Anyway I rather love the ambiguity of that sentiment and yet when practising or watching footy the feeling that nothing ELSE really matters.

    You can also quickly revert to the the former if faced with failure or defeat of course – which is a comfort.

  19. Thanks Statgeek,

    So, YouGov are measuring the following Westminster VI in Scotland:

    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 39% (-3)
    SNP 28% (+8)
    Con 19% (+2)
    LD 6% (-13)

    The Con rise and Lab fall seems counter-intuitive, but that’s polling for you. If our intuition was any good we wouldn’t need polling!

  20. As a nation I think we’ve become so good at moaning at ourselves and our own county that if this was publicised more everyone would be saying –

    “Ee, we’re rubbish at moaning compared to the rest of t
    he world.”

    Sometimes its a trait that becomes somewhat irritating – unless set directly at the USA doing the opposite.

    No offence to America – many of my best chums are American – .[well, actually I’ve ony got one, but he’s American]***

    Paul

    *** I made that up for comic effect – I actually don’t have ANY chums – abd certainly not American ones.

  21. @ Old Nat

    “The Earl of Glasgow lives over the hill from me. He may well be aware of just how dire things are for his party in this part of the world.

    What do you see as shocking – the wipe out of the LDs, or that a Lord wants to avoid reform of the Lords?

    A heathen has more chance of getting into your heaven, than the Earl of Glasgow being elected to the Lords!”

    There’s an Earl of Glasgow? I have learned something new.

    “Nowadays it seems to be all about sex (perhaps it always was). This will allow them to scream that Gays are Communists (and vice versa) [1]

    http://gymnastmike.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/vietnam-considers-gay-marriage.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    I think William O. Douglas once said the same thing. God bless that man. He was damn brilliant.

    Surprised that Vietnam is even considering that.

    @ Amber Star

    “If Andy Murray won a gold at Wimbledon, more Scots would think the Olympics worth the money.”

    Maybe I should root for him. I’m going to root for Tom Daley in the individual diving (unless he’s facing off against Matthew Mitcham). Daley’s fall today in the synchronized diving was kinda sad. But the U.S. men’s gymnasts fell the same way (they did great in qualifications and then didn’t match up in the actual finals).

  22. More than 51 per cent of Germans want to axe the euro after widespread fury that Germany’s taxpayers have been forced to come to the rescue of Greece and other high spending southern European countries.

    Only three in 10 people in Europe’s largest economy now support the single currency, a flagship of EU integration and Germany’s European policy.

    The Ipsos opinion poll found that disenchantment was highest, 56 per cent, among Germans over 50, those old enough to remember repeated promises that Germany would never have to bail-out other countries as the price of the euro.

    Previous EU polls published before the Greek debt crisis showed two thirds of Germans in favour of the euro, with only 29 per cent against.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/7861528/Majority-of-Germans-want-Deutschmark-back.html
    ——————————
    I thought I’d metion this as it says Ipso polling so I think it will not be ‘voodoo’. It is from June but I missed it at the time; another article linked back to it. It is an interesting result, if it was conducted properly.
    8-)

  23. @Stuart Dickson

    More precisely:

    Lab 39.6%
    SNP 28.4%
    Con 19.3%
    LD 5.4%

    Have not added values to the MAD bar charts. They at least can afford values without cluttering the chart too much.

    Some boundary estimates, existing first:

    Lab 41 (N/C)
    SNP 9 (+3)
    Lib 5 (-6)
    Con 4 (+3)

    Proposed new boundaries:

    Lab 38
    SNP 8
    Lib 3
    Con 3

  24. Typo: “Have now added”

  25. Congrats to your Men’s Gymnasts to winning the Bronze Medal. It was good to see them win (I know that you guys all saw this many, many, many, many hours ago but it’s tape delayed for me). I loved the emotion and joy in the crowd. It was cool to see the Princes there to cheer them on. They should have gotten silver (judges are just corrupt) and the crowd was right to boo. I would have booed too. But the team was very good spirited about it.

  26. Good Morning All.

    i. Stuart Dickson: Charming ditty from Johnson.

    ii. SOCALLIBERAL. Agreed about the gymnasts.

    iii. Chinese swimmers. Amazing improvements.

    iv. Lib Dems seem in deep trouble.

    v. Mary Peters came from the Six Counties statelet of Northern Ireland, I think.

    vi. Off to Tuscany for a period. Happy holidays.

  27. AMBER

    It is an interesting Poll.

    Merkel’s Coalition partner seems to be sniffing the wind :-

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/30/us-eurozone-ecb-germany-fdp-idUSBRE86T06S20120730

    I’m reading that the Free Democrats-party of the small businessman -might jump on that national mood & take a ride.

    If they do, Merkel will be in trouble. She still retains a polling lead over the SPD, and it seems unlikely that they will benefit, given their unpopular support for Hollande.
    THe German public really do seem not to like the idea of EZ Debt mutualisation if that means they have to pay for the Greeks,the French etc to retire more early than they can themselves.

    There could be an open goal waiting for FDP.

    Interesting times -as someone once said :-)

  28. OldNat

    A heathen has more chance of getting into your heaven, than the Earl of Glasgow being elected to the Lords!

    But he has been elected to the House of Lords! (Last entry under 2005)

    OK the electorate was only 4, but that’s still 3 more than for most of his colleagues.

  29. Another piece on Philipp Roesler’s concerns about Draghi’s intentions :-

    http://www.brecorder.com/money-a-banking/198/1221864/

  30. Well, on a completely different theme, what will joe public make of the announcement that the MoD has disclosed that Britain’s Trident nuclear submarine bases at Faslane and Coulport on the Clyde will in future be run by private companies?

    It will all work out fine…so long as G4S are not any where in the frame.

  31. @Amberstar – very interesting poll result from Germany if true.

    I said a while back that I felt the tide was running against the Euro and the EU across the continent, and several people told me off firmly, with many stating the view that thoughts about the Euro demise were a peculiar insular and British affair. Nice to see a bit of polling evidence to back up my hunch.

  32. @AW – have a couple of comments in auto mod – not sure why?

  33. S Dickson
    LOL (I have never posted that before!). I will hold myself in check!

  34. “She still retains a polling lead over the SPD, and it seems unlikely that they will benefit, given their unpopular support for Hollande.”
    Even with the polling lead over the SPD, isn’t the German system proportional?

    SDP + The Left are polling roughly equal to CDU/CSU but with the support of the Greens have a majority.
    And with the support of the Pirates (who, judging from their policy platform, are left-libertarian), there’s a clear left-wing majority.

    The FDP jumping now would surely be like the Greens jumping out from the Irish coalition in 2011?

  35. Re: Germans wanting to leave the euro….

    As has been said before, it is a British fascination not necessarily echoed on the continent.

    You could just as easily, for example, post the results of a poll in June (reported in Reuters) which shows the Germans fearful of losing the euro. Which also shows the Germans wanting Greece to leave the euro in order to keep that currency secure.

    You could also post the results of the polls (May and reported in the NY times) which showed euro support to be strong across the majority of EZ countries. That most – although no lovers of the euro – did NOT want to go back to their previous currencies.

    In short, I’m afraid the same rules apply to polls in Germany as they do in the UK.

    If you cherry pick, you get the wrong result.

  36. Not particularly on polling, but this is of some broader interest – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19047501

    A former climate change sceptic, funded in part by industrialists and bodies that seek to challenge the conventional global warming consensus, has now changed his mind and accepts global warming has occurred and that it is almost certainly man made.

  37. Alec
    What I find interesting about that (the story is a few days old now) is the reaction of the climate sceptic community.

    Muller was sceptical for scientific reasons – but has been clearly convinced by the data.
    He used to be the poster-boy for the denial community because he is a qualified scientist but now they write ‘he wasn’t much of a sceptic to begin with’.

    It’s that worrying thing, that happens across the political spectrum, where people will claim that data is false because it doesn’t fit their narrative.

  38. @TingedFringe

    I may be wrong on this, but didn’t Merkel form a coalition with the SPD in her first incarnation as Chancellor? And, if I recall correctly, wasn’t it a rather more successful government than the one she’s leading now, even though she is in coalition with a party, the Free Democrats, with whom she has, ideologically anyway, much more in common? The CSU have been coalition partners in both governments, but the CDU and SDP collaboration was an intriguing and surprisingly productive one, although I can’t quite see Cameron and Miliband ever going down that road, can you?

    Somewhat of an irony, really, suggesting that the dynamics of coalition government can work in eccentric and unpredictable ways. Personalities may be more important than ideological stances, perhaps.

    Of course, one of the many reasons that Hollande is in such a strong political position in his country, and within the EU, is that he has a clear popular mandate and is unencumbered by the need to placate fractious partners in government. Cameron and Merkel have never enjoyed such luxuries, having failed to persuade enough voters to support them to enable them to govern on their own. As Boris Johnson observed recently, they lead governments whose constituent parts are condemned to live with each other!

  39. @ Chris Todd

    You could just as easily, for example, post the results of a poll in June (reported in Reuters) which shows the Germans fearful of losing the euro. Which also shows the Germans wanting Greece to leave the euro in order to keep that currency secure.
    ——————————
    A link to the Reuters report would be appreciated.

    With polls which aren’t reported here, I take them as I find them. I don’t ‘cherry pick’. Actually, I think I’m one of the few here who believes that the euro will survive, without anybody leaving & that the Germans will keep kicking the can down the road until ‘the markets’ sort themselves out.
    8-)

  40. Alec,
    You were looking for further explanation for the disparity between GDP and employment figures –
    The main drag on GDP has, since the election, been household expenditure.

    This is using the inflation-adjusted figures.

    Prior to the election, household expenditure exceeded household spending – but since Q4 2008, household income has exceeded spending.
    Unfortunately, since the coalition has taken over (I don’t think that’s the cause of the income drop), household income has fallen rapidly to it’s lowest point since Q2 2005.
    Household spending (except in Q1 2011 – and then only by £2) has been below income, so that also explains the rapid decline in spending – people are no longer willing/able to borrow to spend over their income.

    So while employment may be up (thanks to increased exports – which are a net gain for GDP), household spending, which has been the main GDP drag since Q3 2010 is in decline.

  41. “household expenditure exceeded household spending”
    Should read ‘exceeded household income’.

    So the point is that people are no longer living beyond their means – just as all parties have argued as a political narrative.

  42. Yes, the German system is proportional. Yes, a red-green-red coalition would easily have a majority. But that’s no possibility for Social Democrats. The Left has moved even further to the left in recent months. They want to tax income above 500000 €/year at 100%. They want to leave NATO and raise unemployment benefits significantly. The moderate wing of the party has been pushed to the sidelines at their last party’s conference. No way this coalition would work for more than a few week.
    The FDP won’t quit government. They fear expulsion from parliament (5%-threshold) way too much.
    A lot depends on whom the SPD puts up as Merkel’s opponent. If the candidate can seriously show himself as the better chancellor, he might get a red-green majority and/or make the SPD the largest party. Otherwise, Merkel remains in office by default.
    Interestingly though, it is unclear, whom she wants to work with. The governing coalition won’t be able to stay (even if the FDP makes the cut). The Social Democrats don’t like the idea of another Grand Coalition (the last one was a success for Germany but a failure for the SPD), the Greens have already more or less ruled out a cooperation. There has never been a minority government in postwar Germany.

  43. TIBIFRA
    SPD + Green + Pirate still works as having a majority.
    I’m not that in to German politics – but would the Pirates be willing to work with SPD + Green?

  44. – “Teenage boy, 17, arrested over hate Tweets sent to Olympic diver Tom Daley after he missed out on a medal”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2181068/London-2012-Teenager-17-arrested-hate-Tweets-sent-Olympic-diver-Tom-Daley.html#ixzz22C1tnvwo

    Am I the only person feeling profoundly uneasy that the police are arresting a youth for a distasteful tweet. I have witnessed thousands of far more abusive things being said daily on the internet (eg. on blog threads). Are the police going to start arresting all those idiots too? The answer of course is: no. You are only at risk if you are abusive towards the British state and its representatives. Truly chilling stuff.

    For the record, here is what the young (17 year old) daftie tweeted:

    “‘You let your dad down i hope you know that.’

    Profoundly distasteful, but does it merit being arrested by the police?

  45. TIBIFRA.
    hello.

    The German system is semi proportional; AMS, which is a hybrid of FPTP and PR

  46. stuart

    I agree. Team GB is saying it was a threatening tweet.

    No it isn’t. Even less than the one that threatened to blow up Robin Hood Airport.

    What crime has been committed here? It’s ridiculous.

  47. STUART DICKSON
    I suspect that he’s been arrested for his countless other tweets where he threatened actual physical bodily harm to people who aren’t Tom Daley.

    I suspect if he is charged with only the Tom Daley tweet, the case won’t reach court. I’d imagine it would fail the ‘harm’/public safety criteria.

  48. STUART DICKSON.
    Yes, because Ireland is 32 Counties, except for the brief interlude of 1922-2022.

    CROSS BAT 11.
    Oh Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
    From glen to glen, and down the mountain side
    The summer’s gone, and all the flowers are dying
    ‘Tis you, ’tis you must go and I must bide.
    But come ye back when summer’s in the meadow
    Or when the valley’s hushed and white with snow
    ‘Tis I’ll be here in sunshine or in shadow
    Oh Danny boy, oh Danny boy, I love you so.

    And if you come, when all the flowers are dying
    And I am dead, as dead I well may be
    You’ll come and find the place where I am lying
    And kneel and say an “Ave” there for me.

    And I shall hear, tho’ soft you tread above me
    And all my dreams will warm and sweeter be
    If you’ll not fail to tell me that you love me
    I’ll simply sleep in peace until you come to me.

    I’ll simply sleep in peace until you come to me.

    My Gran’s favourite song, and my Dad’s too….

    Sinead O’ Connor’s version is the best.

  49. Good morning CHRISLANE1945.
    Stuart Dickson’s intriguing song is by Flanders & Swann, as far as I can tell. I believe the references to mining and explosives are a little modern for Dr Johnson (although those things would not have been unknown to him, of course).

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