Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7% , so very much in the normal range of YouGov’s recent polling.

We are also due the monthly ComRes poll for the Independent tonight, but so far they have only press released a question on the Olympics, so I’m not sure whether or not the voting intention figures will be released tonight or held over. The Olympic question ComRes asked found 50% of people agreed that it was worth the money being spent it, up from 40% when the question was last asked in March.


172 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 44, LD 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. First.
    Solid Labour lead.

    A LD peer attacked the Lords plans of NC, predicting wipe out for the party, which would be shocking.

  2. First 8)

  3. Damnit Chrislane1945, what have you done now

  4. CHRISLANE1945

    “A LD peer attacked the Lords plans of NC, predicting wipe out for the party, which would be shocking.”

    The Earl of Glasgow lives over the hill from me. He may well be aware of just how dire things are for his party in this part of the world.

    What do you see as shocking – the wipe out of the LDs, or that a Lord wants to avoid reform of the Lords?

    A heathen has more chance of getting into your heaven, than the Earl of Glasgow being elected to the Lords!

  5. No apparent benefit yet to the Conservatives from Olympics feelgood factor – despite wall to wall news coverage pushing everything else to the margins. That’s quite a surprise.

    Con/LD lead over Lab on the “who’s to blame for the cuts” question back down to 7% net.

  6. Detailed tables:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5sp8rh2be8/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-300712.pdf

    – “Do you think British troops are winning the war
    with the Taliban in Afghanistan, or not?”

    Yes 9%
    No 73%

  7. – “And who do you think is most to blame for the
    current spending cuts?”

    The last Labour government 34%
    The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition 27%
    Both 8%
    Neither 4%

  8. define “wipeout” – if it’s no LD seats at all next time – highly unlikely. Less than 15 is quite possible, and might feel very much like a wipeout.

    next question – when is team GB going to start winning gold medals? Can’t leave them all for US and China (spot the current superpowers there).

  9. OldNat:

    Is there any empirical evidence that “heathens” [whatever they are] can’t get into “heaven” ]wherever that is] ??

    Actually I think Barnard Castle is a little heaven so the evidence is probably in the opposite direction.

    Re the Afghan poll: what a dilemma. The way the population is and may be treated is utterly horrific versus its not our population and there’s sod-all we can d about it anyway.

    Oh dear.

  10. Keith,

    Forget the US and China, it is the success of our fellow EU members which has really stunned me thus far:

    (including GB)

    Gold 9 (9)
    Silver 11 (12)
    Bronze 8 (10)

    That puts the EU in first place, ahead of China. Time for Team Europe?

  11. Good Night All.

    ROFL to OLD NAT head and to HARRY THOMPSON.

    KEITH P.
    IMHO the LD’s will win about 9 seats, which would be sad.

  12. CL1945: “sad” – indeed 4 would be better. [I jest.]

    I meant 3.

  13. Chrislane,

    If you really believe that the Lib Dems will get only 9 seats, get over to Ladbrokes pronto. They are currently offering 8/1.

    Next UK GE – Lib Dem seats
    (they got 57 seats (-5) at UK GE 2010)

    0-10 8/1
    11-20 4/1
    21-30 7/2
    31-40 7/2
    41-50 6/1
    51-60 10/1
    61-70 16/1

  14. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19041458

    Bizarre and sickening. Putin seems as bad as Communism was.

  15. Paul Croft

    If there are any heavens, then clearly each cult would need to have its own. It was heathen entry into ChrisLane’s heaven that I was questioning.

    Afghanistan isn’t a “country” in any European sense of the word. It is a creation of the 19th/20th century imperialist countries – like so many others.

    It is as logical for other states to intervene in their civil wars as it would have been for the Chinese to have intervened in Europe to insist that the Holy Roman Empire continued as a state, and to decide which faction should be in power.

  16. No VI questions in the ComRes poll. Tables now up:

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Olympics__31st_July12.pdf

  17. OldNat:

    Sounds like its a bit crowded up “there” where all the heavens are.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19047475

    Its a funny ole world part two. I suppose it demonstrates my problem: religion is all about interpretation and some people aren’t very good at that bit. Actually, quite a lot of people.

  18. Did Boris really describe the female beach volleyball competitors as ‘glistening like wet otters’?

    Apart from possible illuminating something deeply troubling about what he thinks about when the lights are out, it’s one small step from an otter to a beaver, and then all hell would broken loose……

  19. PAULCROFT

    “religion is all about interpretation”

    Nowadays it seems to be all about sex (perhaps it always was). This will allow them to scream that Gays are Communists (and vice versa) [1]

    http://gymnastmike.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/vietnam-considers-gay-marriage.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    [1] Interpret “vice” as you will.

  20. ComRes:

    “The Olympic Games will be worth the £9.3bn being spent from the public purse.”

    Agree:
    England & Wales 52%
    Scotland 30%

    Disagree:
    England & Wales 40%
    Scotland 58%

  21. Alec :)

  22. Well, the stats from Scotland are a huge surprise…………….

  23. Paul,

    It was actually the 40% of respondents in E&W disagreeing that surprised me. As you say, nobody ought to be surprised that the Scots are unimpressed.

  24. STUART DICKSON

    NBC skipped the 7/7 tribute because it wasn’t “tailored for the U.S. audience”.

    So there are worse broadcasters than the BBC!

  25. Ms Sande?
    I work with her mum so obviously her singing was great! But not only that, fellow north east Scottish womwn were to the fore. Ms Glenny beating the drums amd a snippet of A Lennox!
    Can’t believe that young Gove has condemned the show. However history has its revenge. My council has the right to nominate to the board of his old school. It just might be me!

  26. I don’t think that was a 7/7 tribute. It certainly wasn’t the impression I got when I watched it. I think it was just showing family members of people in the crowd who had died recently. About 50 people died on 7/7, and there seemed to be a hell of a lot more than 50 faces shown.

  27. Another point I want to make. Many of the comments slagging off the Japanese gymnasts are a bloody disgrace. The judges’ decision was blatantly wrong, and anyone who thinks the British team would have just sat there and let themselves be deprived of a medal because of a blatant blunder by the judges is talking through their urethral passage.

    Some of the comments aimed the Japanese are just stinking jingoistic hypocrisy, and are why I’ve always been a bit wary of patriotism, as it can easily bleed over into a tribalistic ‘my country right or wrong’ attitude that can trample over any sense of fair play and respect for others.

  28. OldNat,

    Don’t get me going on the BBC. Shocking doesn’t even begin to cover it.

    When exactly did “public service” broadcasting go out the window? 1965? Nowadays it is just wall to wall crud.

    Barney, go easy on the current pupils at Robert Gordon’s. Mr Gove is not their fault!

  29. Ed Balls has just passed his Grade one piano. I bet ole George Osborne hasn’t even done prelimary grade yet so why [OH WHY] is he STILL chancellor?

    When are qualifications going to start counting for something?

  30. @Stuart D

    To avoid rushing to instant conclusions, a suitable follow up question is needed. I suggest:

    “The Olympic Games of 20 years ago was worth the £9.3bn still being paid back from the public purse.”

  31. Blotto Liverpudlian,

    Did you hear the booing at the gymnastics venue when the silver medal was awarded to the Japanese team? Absolutely repulsive. Added to the disgraceful booing at the men’s cycling road race it just makes you wonder about the intelligence of some of these people in the audience.

  32. Phil,

    Indeed.

  33. PHIL

    Or the question might have been

    “The Olympic Games will be worth the extra £9.3bn being borrowed by the UK Government.”

  34. I certainly did hear it. I dread to think what would have happened had they actually deprived the British men of a medal.

  35. Well I don’t want my own patriotism to head into jingo-land but surely if the games are being held in the UK surely competitors should be awarded extra marks just for being British. This should get round what I refer to as the “not-winning” problem rather well.

    I was also disappointed that Flanders and Swann didn’t feature in the opening cermony with the last verse of “The English! The English! The English are the best!”

    I think it would have gone down well and been recieved with a collective chuckle.

    http://www.nyanko.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/fas/anotherhat_song.html

  36. PAULCROFT

    You need to be more internationalist in your approach.

    Flanders & Swann’s “The Gasman Cometh” would have been a more appropriate tribute to Britishness.

    For the benefit of the more youthful on this site, the lyrics are here.

    http://www.lyricsmania.com/the_gas_man_cometh_lyrics_flanders_and_swann.html

  37. While we’re still on the subject of the Games, it looks like NBC in the US are taking some stick.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/30/1115045/-NBC-Fail-Again

    ‘NBC-Nothing But Commercials’ is one of my favourites. I was in New York a few weeks ago and I couldn’t believe the numbers of adverts shown on US TV. I find the ad breaks every 15 minutes we have here annoying enough, but American TV is just next level.

    Anyway, back onto the topic of polling. YouGov has a poll out a week or two ago that showed people by a margin of 59-22 thought reducing unemployment was more important than reducing inflation. I found that interesting (and encouraging) because although the economic orthodoxy of the past 30 or so years has been one of ultra-low inflation, such attitudes don’t seem to have filtered down to ordinary people.

  38. It’s interesting that, with the news almost totally dominated by the Olympics, there seems to be no change in the state of the parties at all. Polls have been quite stable for a while now; though perhaps the fullest bloom of Labour’s lead has wilted ever so slightly, it’s still pretty handy at the moment. If the Government parties don’t reduce Labour’s lead at a time when the headlines are either foreign affairs or the Games, they won’t be happy bunnies.

  39. BARNABY MARDER

    Isn’t it more likely that when the media coverage is on the Olympics or Syria, that there is nothing going on which will encourage people to switch their political views?

    Polldrums would seem to be the inevitable consequence.

  40. Paul,

    I’m not sure that the IOC would appreciate English humour:

    The English are moral, the English are good
    And clever and modest and misunderstood.

    And all the world over, each nation’s the same
    They’ve simply no notion of playing the game
    They argue with umpires, they cheer when they’ve won
    And they practice beforehand which ruins the fun!

    The English, the English, the English are best
    So up with the English and down with the rest.

    It’s not that they’re wicked or natuarally bad
    It’s knowing they’re foreign that makes them so mad!

    If you thought that Jacques Rogge looked glum at the opening ceremony, I’d have loved to see his face upon listening to that.

  41. @Drukenscouser

    I thought the judges original error with Japanese gymnast’s mark was glaringly obvious. In fairness, so did the commentators who were unsurprised by the,successful appeal.

    The crowd were simply,disappointed that an anticipated bronze that had become silver had been reduced again to a bronze.

    Also, can someone explain when the team went from being,GB and NI, to just GB? Is there now an all Ireland Olympic Association?

  42. CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%

    Oh, Danny boy, the polls, the polls are calling
    From glen to glen, and down the Tories slide
    The election’s gone, and all the Lib Dems are dying
    ‘Tis Dave, ’tis Dave must go and Ed must bide.

    It’s the Boyle effect; £27 million well spent, methinks!

    lol

  43. SD:

    Well I dunno about that analysis. I think it would have cheered him up no end and had him singing along.

  44. RAF

    We discussed this on an earlier thread.

    Team GB was never a UK team. The British Olympic Association has the franchise for England, Wales, Scotland, and those Crown Dependencies that haven’t asked for their own Olympic franchise (hence Manxman Cavendish being part of Team GB). The Irish Olympic Association has the franchise for all 32 counties in Ireland – but, in practice, those in NI decide which team they want to try to qualify for.

    The political attempts to equate Team GB with the UK are somewhat misplaced.

  45. If Andy Murray won a gold at Wimbledon, more Scots would think the Olympics worth the money. ;-)

  46. RAF,

    – “Is there now an all Ireland Olympic Association?”

    Yes. And the Olympic Council of Ireland has always been all-island.

    The BOA had to officially ask the OCI’s approval before it could take the Olympic flame on a tour of Northern Ireland.

    The IOC is not composed of sovereign states. There are several other Olympic committees representing non-sovereign entities, eg. Hong Kong.

  47. I think its fair to say that the GB team is closer to being a UK team than, say, the Chinese team is.

    And vice versa.

    Ergo that’s jolly well near enough for most people.

  48. @Oldnat

    Thanks for,that.

    I only asked as the vest used to,read GB and NI. This is,the,first Olympic games it just reads GB.

  49. @Stuart Dickson

    I was aware the teams are set by Olympic Association,rather than states – hence Palestine.

  50. Paul, you are an optimist. Like all bureaucrats Rogge ia a huge miseryguts.

    Why on earth could Coe, Rogge and Her Majesty not manage just a teensy weensy wee smile between them? An Italian friend of mine said that it was noted how utterly miserable, bored and fidgety the Queen was during the opening ceremony. Not a great image to be putting forward.

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