Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, exactly the same as Thursday’s YouGov poll for the Sun. As usual I will do a proper update sometime tomorrow once the tables are published.


79 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 8”

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  1. @TingedFringe,

    There is an alternative theory – that Thatcher polarises public opinion like no one before (or since). Although many people absolutely loathed her, she managed to galvanise significant centre-right support – meaning that her unpopularity with the centre-left was rendered less relevant when it came to the important job of winning GEs. She was often unpopular with voters mid-term (like most incumbents), but always seemed to gather support on election day – when the polls really matter.

    David Cameron and Ed Miliband simply don’t have that same ‘polarising effect’ on voters.

  2. *polarised*

  3. I guess nowadays, leaders of the centre-left and centre-right want to be all things to all people. That’s why there is actually little (or less descernible) policy difference between New Labour, the Tories and the Libs, and less of a ‘polarising effect’ than under the like of Thatcher. As this has effectively encouraged politics to become style over substance, the public has become more cynical, and most no longer truly believe anything that the likes of David Cameron and Ed Miliband say.

    Like her or loathe her (and I loathe Thatcherism), at least Thatcher actually believed in her own policies and had strong convictions that went beyond merely wanting to be PM. The same goes with the Old Labour leaders – such ‘conviction politicians’ have sadly gone forever, replaced by their poor, modern imitations who clearly lack substance or ideological drive.

  4. I could not stand Thatcher and I think the same of Cameron. It is nothing to do with the politics they follow, but their behaviour. On the other hand, I very much respected John Major, as I thought that actually he was a decent PM, who behaved in a way that was appropriate for a head of government.

    As with all these debates on the character of PM’s it becomes very pollarised and this is always born out in any polling. The last PM who was generally respected on both side of the political dividing line was Tony Blair. But that was probably more so, before Iraq.

  5. ROGER MEXICO

    @”And I suppose you could argue that the failure of the road race ‘Team GB’[1] was because they didn’t have a ‘Plan B’.”

    Yes……….judging by “Cav’s” response, & those of his team, plan A seemed to consist of opposing teams helping all the “sprinters” get to the end……….so that Cav could beat them all.

    And what “went wrong” was that they declined to help Mr. Cavendish win the Gold Medal in that fashion.

    As the interviewer on Sky asked them-so what did the winner do right then?

    Strange sport-don’t understand the tactics at all.

    My impression was that the GB team failed to remember that they were no longer the Sky professional team competing in Tour de France-and confidently ( arrogantly?) expected the same control tactics to work.

  6. @AmbivalentSupporter

    Although we come from different political directions ( I loved the Thatcher years) I totally agree with your comments about modern political leadership of all colours. The current lot are all pygmies compared with Thatcher and Attlee.

  7. @R Huckle,

    Yeah, I actually liked and respected Tony Blair (especially before the Iraq war)….he is undoubtedly one of the best leaders/PMs in my lifetime (I’m 29)….certainly since Thatcher, anyway. If I’m honest, I really don’t like Ed Miliband very much. He just doesn’t come across as a competent leader to me….he lacks personality or substance.

  8. Atleast Miliband has the courage to attempt to become PM without the support of Rupert Murdoch…It hasn`t been done for the last 33 years

  9. @The Other Howard,

    We are probably not as dissimilar politically as you think. I also happen to loathe New Labour (and the Libs). I’d describe myself as a centrist…in theory, I could vote Tory, Labour or Lib (or Green/other) at the next GE….I haven’t decided yet.

    Going back to Blair…although I think he displayed great leadership skills…. his problem was that he was all style over substance. I honestly couldn’t tell you if he was a socialist or conservitive….I’m not sure anyone can.

  10. *Conservative*

  11. OldNat,

    – “I doubt whether Manx political attitudes will be altered by Mark Cavendish’s “failure” in the cycling today.”

    The Daily Telegraph reports that the crowd were booing as Vinokourov took the gold medal. Appalling if true, and a badge of disgrace. Let’s just remember that one of Cavendish’s road race team mates is also a convicted doping cheat, as are other members of the Great Britain Olympic team.

    And Cavendish’s remarks afterwards did him no credit whatsoever. Blaming other cycling teams for failing to deliver him the expected gold? Arrogance and self-importance does not even begin to cover it. He’d have been better saying nothing at all.

    Rest assured, true cycling fans the world over were delighted with Vinokourov’s victory. Speaking personally, I can say that he has provided me with weeks and weeks of glorious entertainment during the last 15 years or so, at Le Tour and other races. An outstanding athlete and wonderfully aggressive competitor, he set many races on fire. I wish him a happy retirement.

  12. @Stuart Dickson,

    I agree. The way Cavendish has conducted himself (also being aggressive at a reporter) has been nothing short of disgraceful. The Olympics should be about sportsmanship as much as winning.

  13. OldNat,

    – “What astonishes me is the openly partisan position that is being taken in advertising this post. I really can’t think of an equivalent.”

    I’m just wondering if the Treasury is not sailing very close to the legal wind with the wording of their advertisement:

    https://jobs.civilservice.gov.uk/company/nghr/jobs.cgi?SID=amNvZGU9MTI2ODgzNiZ2dF90ZW1wbGF0ZT0xMzA0Jm93bmVyPTUwNTAwMDAmb3duZXJ0eXBlPWZhaXImYnJhbmRfaWQ9MCYmcmVxc2lnPTEzNDM0NDQ4MTItYzU1Y2E3NzFhNGU1NzE1YTI4MWZjOTNiYmUyZGE5NTRmM2Y4NjUwNA==

    Any experts in Administrative Law in the house?

  14. Roger M
    I realise your comment re colonialism was tongue in cheek but the “strange team GB” name is due to the Olympic Ctte of the Rep of Ireland who object to any title that includes Northern Ireland.
    ps people here may have realised that the Olympics is driving the nats potty.

  15. R Huckle,

    – “On the other hand, I very much respected John Major”

    Agreed. (Although I’d edit out the “very much” bit.)

    My adult years have been spent under 5 different PMs (Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron), and Major is the the only one I respect.

    I profoundly disagreed with the man’a policies, and couldn’t stand his Scottish Tory cheerleaders, but he had a strand of dignity under duress that one cannot help but admire. In addition, he is the only one of those 4 retired PMs to have actually grown in stature since his retiral.

    Thatcher and Brown have been deeply afflicted and scarred by their own personal demons. Blair… ye gods, I’d better not say what I really think for fear of AW’s snip.

    Cameron could yet make a better former PM than he is as actual PM. Only time will tell. The 2014 referendum result will no doubt profoundly influence how historians future generations judge Cameron. And that result is, of course, largely outwith his sphere of influence.

  16. @ AmbivalentSupporter

    Like her or loathe her (and I loathe Thatcherism), at least Thatcher actually believed in her own policies and had strong convictions that went beyond merely wanting to be PM. The same goes with the Old Labour leaders – such ‘conviction politicians’ have sadly gone forever, replaced by their poor, modern imitations who clearly lack substance or ideological drive.

    do people want those old ‘extremes’ though?

    on certain policies maybe. but even then they soon tire of them.

    dont the majority of the electorate, on balance, live in the centre and tire pretty soon of more left or right wing politics?

  17. I think John Major is the PM I felt most sorry for, particularly after the 1992 election. I wonder if he ever privately wished he had lost. Nevertheless, he kept on trying, at least publicly. Apart from anything else, it was a huge ask to achieve anything really notable after the Thatcher revolution.

    I note that there is some worry about a “treble dip” recession. I wonder how many dips there must be before commentators shrug and call it a depression?

  18. SD “Cameron could yet make a better former PM”

    Yes, that would be great.

  19. Its weird how the BBC always adopt a “no other news” policy when a major event is occurring.

    The online “headline” for 24 hours has been “boris says games aren’t ‘leftie’ ”

    Has the rest of the world disappeared whilst I slept?

  20. Paul,

    Nope.

    ‘Syrian Troops Shell Aleppo’

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444860104577556583820994206.html

    ‘Report: US sees Israeli strike on Iran in October’

    ht tp://www.israeltoday.co.il/NewsItem/tabid/178/nid/23319/language/en-US/Default.aspx

    ‘2012 Assam violence’

    ht tp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Assam_violence

    ‘Dissidents groups merge to form new IRA’

    ht tp://www.u.tv/News/Dissidents-groups-merge-to-form-new-IRA/b993f36e-28ec-4e33-ab4f-c0db18555a97

    ‘Whistleblowers in the armed forces should be given the same protection as civilian employees’

    ht tp://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/2012/07/29/protect-forces-whistleblowers-mp-91466-31498225/#ixzz220rb4oNi

  21. Only vaguely read the stuff about an ad for someone to investigate benefits to scotland in remaining part of the union: but if it is govt policy that this is best for the UK surely it is incumbent upon that govt to seek ways to demonstrate practical reasons why that is so?

    Are the SNP govt not spending any Scottish money to demonstrate the opposite?

    [The above is what I like to call a “question”: ie I don’t know the anwer and would like to know]

    My own feeling is that we should keep sub-dividing until we have the Kingdom of Wessex applying for EU and UN membership. Perhaps even little ole Barnard Castle could be independent.

  22. AmbivalentSupporter

    The Olympics should be about sportsmanship as much as winning.

    Not disagreeing with you but there’s an interesting clash here about ethics. The anger from Cavendish (and I suspect the rest of the cycling team) is because they felt the others (especially the Germans) breached professional cycling ethics where it is expected for members of the leading teams to take the turns at leading the peleton. By forcing the British riders to do 99% of that job, the others (I though the Germans in particular) broke the informal ‘rules’, hence the anger. It also slowed the peleton down.

    Of course this wasn’t a professional race and different ethics apply – not that either the modern or ancient Olympics ever really took much notice of ethics in the end. Though ironically professional cycling tends to have much more rigorous ethical standards (look how they will stop if someone has an accident) because they are operating within a small constant community and so breaking the rules will have consequences.

    But tactics suitable for riding day after day in one of the Tours aren’t going to be right for a one-off event every four years. Hence the real problem was a lack of Plan B, especially after the second breakaway.

  23. Good Afternoon All

    AMBIVALENT SUPPORTER.

    Tony Blair is a christian socialist.

    He used to win General Elections, easily.

  24. Actually he one two GE’s by default. Not sure of the benefit of the “christian” bit either as we are, by and large, a secular society. “Faith” schools [their very title explains why] are a dreadful and growing part of our education system in my opinion and give us less right to complain when other countries do the same, but in particularly vicious ways.

  25. Oh dear – speed writing again. one = won of course.

    As a state we should, of course, teach ABOUT faiths but none of them should be ingrained into our system when all of them espouse tghoroughly un-verifiable beliefs.

    TB made a huge mistake in allowing their proliferation but I doubt if any politician will have the courage to row back on this.

    I must say I have been pleased to hear bothe Clegg and Milband say they are atheists: that certainly couldn’t happen in the States, to name just one country.

  26. SD:

    Yes, I know that really but I was talking about headlines – which are what they presumably think are most important in their news coverage.

  27. I am not a hardcore cycling fan as such but have followed the Tour de France for about 25 years and usually follow the Tour of Britain when it occurs.

    I was quite surprised that the group were allowed to escape at the end of the race. There would have been little chance of that tactic working in a stage race.

    The Germans should have done more work as on a good day their rider Griepel could beat Cavendish in a sprint (and would be very likely get a medal even if he did not). I understand the German rider Tony Martin even dropped out of the race.

    As far as the Aussies are concerned, they had a Stuart O’Grady in the breakaway so it would have been in their interests not for the group to be caught, so I do not see what complaint Cav could have there.

    Cycling is a subtle mixture of teamwork and individualism which is what makes it such an interesting watch. In the Tour de France it is common for rival teams to form alliances in their mutual interest.

  28. @ Colin

    “If this continues alongside SOCAL’s posts ,scrolling through stuff you don’t want to read on UKPR is going to take much longer than actually reading anything.”

    If you don’t want to read it, no one is requiring you to.

  29. R Huckkle: Very funny yes and I do actually laugh – mostly at my own excellent quips I must admit.

    Re. Emili: You do not enhance the meaning of words by breathing between a and bide and all sorts of other ludicrous places.

    Re McCartney I did ask “why?” re Hey jude on this forum. It was a pretty rotten song in the first place and time has done it no favours. We should have had George Formby videos.

    Anyway, my flute has arrived and Rosie, my little border terrier [I think -well, hope really – mostly from the English side of the border] doesn’t like me playing it.

    Very odd ‘cos my phrasing is great.

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