There are two new polls out tonight. The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, so after an eleven point lead yesterday we are back into the middle of the normal nine to ten point lead that YouGov have averaged around for the last month or so.

Secondly there is a new poll from TNS BMRB, conducted over the last three days, which has topline figures of CON 30%(-2), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 17%(-1). Changes are from their last poll in June.


319 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. Talking of moaning, you can’t watch sport now without it being spoiled by whoooooooooooooping.

    I am setting up a hermit colony with nightly bingo, line-dancing, a share-a-cave option and dating agency but NO whooping, if anyone is interested?

  2. The BBC have just announced that last night’s viewing figures averaged 22 million and peaked at 27 million. Staggering.

    That dwarfs the audiences for any of the Jubilee events and even pips the 23 million who watched the England v Italy Euro 12 quarter final.

    My faith in the great British public is being restored and, whilst on the subject of TV coverage, many congratulations to the BBC for a superb piece of outside broadcasting that was in the finest tradition of another great publicly funded British institution. Can you imagine what it would have been like if Sky had covered last night’s events? Advertising breaks every 10 minutes, I would think, and regular interviews with Coca Cola and McDonalds corporate hospitality guests!

    Oh, and Kay Burley interviewing Boris Johnson every two minutes as well probably! Thank you BBC for sparing the nation from such serial indignities lol

  3. CROSSBAT11
    Thank God that when he was 14, Danny Boyle, I mean, not God, was told by his priest in Wigan not to go to train to be a priest, but to go into film work. Mother from God’s County, Galway.

    But what did Nick Robinson mean when he said that the NHS theme was ‘for the left’ ? I think we all use the NHS in our lives, from the cradle to the grave.

  4. @Chrislane1945

    Not if we can avoid it. Some of us are not fans of the NHS as it is.

    I thought the celebration tended to have a left of centre stance although overall it was quite spectacular.

  5. @ Old Nat

    Won’t have a word said against Alf Garnett! One of my favourite shows- obviously mainly laughing at him but it was quite subtle at times and often more drama than comedy. Probably one of the few shows at the time that didn’t have a middle class backround with upper class actors.

    Always remember a quote from Warren Mitchell after someone came up to him and said “I like the way you have a go at the Queen and the blacks and all that”. He replied saying “I was’;t having a go at them I was having a go at so and so’s like you- only I didn’;t say so and so”. I think the word he omitted was the one John Terry and Anton Ferdinand use rather a lot!

    I think there is a dividing line between what is humour and what is offensive. I’d honestly say ‘boyo’ is marginal but not offensive because it’s not especially stereotyping anyone and not something that could hurt someone in any way.

  6. As someone immensely proud of the concept of the NHS (not so much how it’s put in practise) and as woman who’s distant relatives were members of the suffragettes I was pleased to see these represented in the ceremony, but I do feel that spelling out N H S and a lot of that segment was directed at the Americans, and Votes for Women directed at Arab Countries. While I’m immensely proud our country has these values, I do feel we were sailing a little close to the wind in terms of making political statements in the ceremony, even if they were statements I wholeheartedly agree with.

  7. @Chris Lane 1945

    I didn’t know about Danny Boyle’s Catholic past, I must admit, but you’ve just given me another reason to like him now!

    “But what did Nick Robinson mean when he said that the NHS theme was ‘for the left’ ?”

    No need to worry about what he meant; it’s unimportant. It’s a fairly predictable comment from a mediocre journalist who would probably have preferred the ceremony to have celebrated our national fantasies and delusions instead; “play up and play the game” crypto-Etonian twaddle mixed in with royalist mumbo-jumbo and chinless wonders from Sandhurst shedding sentimental tears about our Imperialist past. Thank God we were spared all that jingoistic baloney and, for that alone, we should all be eternally grateful to the future Sir Danny Boyle!

  8. Anmary: whilst I can see your point I see no reason when showcasing the past bits of us that have made us “who we are” that we should tip-toe around these elements.

    I found the statement about this being the first Olympics in which ALL partiicipating countries had female involvement both uplifting and sad at the same time.

    The former obviously, but who are these people that they feel they have the right to limit girls and women in so many ways? I realise we were similarly blinkered in some ways – and in historical terms relatively recently – but it does make one glad to see the global internet age shining a light on such attitudes now – and changing them bit by bit.

    Paul.

  9. Nick Robinson:

    “Beyond reality – but not as far as Paul Croft”

    I think I should feel proud at such recognition – especially from someone as clearly brilliant as olenat. Once I’ve decided I may use it on my website.

  10. I did not watch the opening ceremony – though I understand from most comments that it went quite well.The 1984 Los Angeles games apparently started all this extravaganza nonsense – which really has nothing to do with the Olymoics per se and is just an opening night of entertainment..Pity that the rest of the world has felt obliged to submit to this effective Americanisation of the ceremony. The effect has been to rather vulgarize the occasion. Far better to revert to the former practice of holding the opening parade in the middle of the afternoon and so avoid the need for the lighting needed for special effects so late in the evening.On this issue I am very much a traditionalist – Back to pre 1984!

  11. Back to Greek times and do it all with their kit off – no need for any ceremonies then surely?

  12. TINGED

    Thanks.

    I only picked up on your Jeffersonian quote because I am currently finishing a biography of John Adams.

    I don’t pretend any knowledge of Jefferson other than his interaction with Adams.

    However , a brief read of Wiki on the topic of Jefferson & Slavery reveals a distinct conflict between his words & his actions.

    Enormously interesting period -the Adams biography has opened my eyes about these giants of the American Revolution.

  13. @Old Nat

    “The NHS” refers to the NHS of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and yes Scotland. They are separate administrative units, with separate political oversight, but are cooperative bodies with many shared and centralised services.

    And this has been explained to you repeatedly.

    So I think my conclusion is that you just use it as one of your trigger words to try and turn all discussion towards Scottish Independence.

    Stop it.

  14. CROSSBAT 11

    @”A testimonial from a credit agency. That’s a bit like getting a clean bill of health from an undertaker isn’t it? lol”

    I know what you mean………..but when your creditors look to the undertaker to decide whether whether you are alive enough to be worth lending to …..it’s probably important the undertaker doesn’t say-he’s a gonner :-)

    Wish I could share your view of Mr Boyle’s efforts-still it’s history now. We can hopefully communicate with the rest of the world through our olympians :-)

  15. Jay:

    Please don’t wake him up.

  16. @ Colin
    Re Standard & Poors deciding to keep us at AAA level!

    He can rejoice in the relief that this potentially fatal news for him no longer has to be buried in the dominance of the start of the Olympics!

    ….instead, by the next time Standard & Poors review it …it will be in the full glare of all and sundry. :-)

  17. George Osborne that is …..

  18. @Colin

    “Wish I could share your view of Mr Boyle’s efforts-still it’s history now. We can hopefully communicate with the rest of the world through our olympians”

    I’m not surprised you didn’t think too much of Mr Boyle’s efforts in the same that I wouldn’t have thought you were too surprised to discover that I didn’t enjoy the Jubilee celebrations as much as you did. That’s not a problem; we’re two different people with two different views on these things.

    However, I couldn’t agree with you more about our Olympians. Come on Mr Cavendish; I’m wishing you well as you speed through the Surrey countryside on your way to the Mall. Let’s bag our first Gold on Day 1!

  19. Colin,
    The whole period is fascinating and their debate over constructing a nation’s constitution from scratch – Alexander Hamilton, for example, wanted a president and senate elected for life which would have effectively turned the US in to an elected monarchy and house of lords.

    1776 was the year that effectively built the modern world – The Wealth of Nations became the basis for capitalism, the US became the basis for modern constitutional democracy and the founding of the (historical) illuminati [1] represented a shift from supernatural though to rationalism.

    My favourite revolutionary figure is, unsurprisingly, Thomas Paine.
    He is effectively the father of the welfare state – calling for the creation of an old-age pension, disability benefits and the philosophical precursor of a citizen’s income (which tax credits are just a non-universal form of).
    Although it’s not actually Agrarian Justice which inspired me toward land reform – it’s Henry George’s [2] Progress and Poverty.

    [1] I don’t mean the folks who appear in conspiracy theories – I mean the actual society.
    [2] Also a fantastic capitalist writer.

  20. personally I feel that the S&P AAA rating is more a reflection of the UK long-term position, which all things considered is still reasonably good.

    It just seems a little bit of a stretch to say any shorter-term actions the Chancellor takes, hopefully doing his bit to maintain the long-term position, as well as trying to sort out current problems, are therefore effectively AAA rated too.

    I really can’t agree with S&P’s optimism on UK growth, and that is with assuming the EZ situation gets no worse.

    .

  21. CROSSBAT11

    It gets better.
    Frank Cotrell Boyce who wrote the script with Boyle is also catholic, from St Helens. He also did the BBC papal visit to Hyde Park with our young people.
    His Dad taught me on the pgce.

    Left of Centre, Boris denies it. But yes, a wonderful show.

  22. I think the majority in the UK are proud of, and want to retain, the BBC and the NHS. I seem to remember polls show the same.

    It’s a pity when such majority opinion is ignored and special interest groups get their ways.

  23. [Snip – AW]

    The relationships between previous PMs and their Chancellor haves usually historically been difficult. But the ‘friendship’ between DC and GO originate in their public school days.

    If some Tory person other than GO had the responsiblity for party strategy, is it not likely that that person would advise the PM to replace the Chancellor, asap?

    In a way, a reshuffle may define DC’s strength/weakness. A small reshuffle not involving the Treasury might be perceived as a sign of weakness, whereas an extensive reshuffle with GO removed from office might lead to joe public perceiving DC as determined and strong.

    It is evident GO is unpopular with the public, so his retention or removal could lead to a change in or hardening of VI.

  24. CROSSBAT

    Sure thing-telling history can often be subjective-even for historians. But for a film maker-particularly that film maker , it was never going to be comfortable for everyone.

    Technically & visually there was stunning stuff-the Rings & the Cauldron. Throat catching stuff too-the young soprano-awsome.

    TINGED

    Thanks.

    The thing which has struck me forcibly, is a) the extent of foreign diplomacy in Europe & b) the enormous length of time for communication .

    A transatlantic trip could take weeks -and Adams finished up in Spain more than once , when his destination was Paris-leaving tortuous overland journeys to complete.
    Adams hardly saw his wife Abigail for years on end.

    And when he did return home , a trip from New England to Philadelphia would take weeks-followed by endless sessions of Congress to reach decisions.

    It has made me realise how modern communications & transport have transformed the world.

    Yes they were fascinating men-and they were all men!

  25. TINGED

    You should make a trip to my county town-Lewes & visit The White Hart Hotel if you are a Thomas Paine supporter.

    The White Hart usually has one or two Americans in the bar, on pilgrimage.

  26. Good afternoon all

    The best part of the Opening Ceremony was the lighting of the flame.
    Both the aesthetics of how it was done, and the fact that seven young unknown athletes were given the honour of doing it. After all – the Olympics is supposed to be about the youth of the world, the idea of a vetter tomorrow.

    I also thought Jacques Rogge’s speech was spot on.

    And of course, the Arctic Monkeys.

  27. @Mike N

    I don’t think there is much chance of Cameron getting rid of his school boy chum.

    You only need to see how he stood by Andy Coulson to understand his kind of judgment.

    [Snip – AW. And George Osborne didn’t go to Eton anyway, he went to St Paul’s, so he wouldn’t have known David Cameron at school.]

  28. Paul Bristol
    I too doubt DC will get rid of GO.

    You mention Coulson, and of course his appointments were made by DC. Appointing GO as shadow and then chancellor was also DC’s decisons.

  29. The question of whether DC will or will not remove GO from the Treasury, leads into an issue of the public’s perception of DC.

    Is it better in the eyes and minds of joe public for the PM (in this instance DC) to be seen as ‘loyal’ to coleagues/friends, or to be seen as willign to take whatever steps are necessary including those involving friends?

    If there is one thing I’m pretty sure DC would like it is to be seen as a tough PM, willing to take difficult decisions for the good of the country. Removing GO would demonstrate that DC is a strong PM, wouldn’t it?

  30. It’s certainly different from the last Labour Government where the PM and Chancellor became bitter rivals.

    In my mind, that at least served well to keep each other on their toes. TB would have loved to have dispatched GB, but GB was too good!

    DC and GO is all about friendship no matter what the policy short comings are for the country!

  31. COLIN.
    I will stay away from Lewes on November 5th !

    I think most people have used the NHS, for example, when they were born.

  32. DC will do only the smallest of reshuffles, IMO. None of the big roles will be altered. Quite simply, the PM doesn’t like conflict & he doesn’t like change. Inertia, stubborness, loyalty, strength – call it as your personal &/or political preferences dictate. It will be a continuity cabinet.
    8-)

  33. CHRISLANE

    You might be interested in this :-

    http://www.sussex.ac.uk/research/news/?id=14478

  34. RAF

    Agree entirely

  35. Jayblanc

    The fact that you have asserted something many times doesn’t make it true.

    I have asked you before, and you have never responded –

    What are these “many shared and centralised services”?

  36. oldnat

    not sure what the point of arguments among the unconvertable on both sides is, strikes me as pointless.

  37. COLIN.
    Many thanks for your link from sussex.

    For one minute I feared it might by the charming November 5 link from Lewes.

    A great man, Tom Paine.

  38. @Oldnat, A Cairns

    I do believe I have responded to this before, but perhaps you have forgotten or overlooked the response?

    A quick check throws up at least the following,

    UK wide centralised NHS services-
    * NHS Blood and Transplants –
    ** Cord blood bank.
    ** Organ donation and transplants.
    ** Bone marrow matching and transplant.
    ** The various other UK wide services of NHSBT
    * NHS Workforce Planning
    ** Competency Assessment
    ** NHS Benchmarking
    ** Internal mental health services for the NHS workforce.
    ** The various other UK wide services of
    * NRES –
    ** Ethical Review.
    ** Research and study approval.
    ** Research tissue banks.
    * NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement
    ** Enhancing Engagement in Medical Leadership project.
    ** Various UK wide R&D projects.
    * National Patient Safety Agency
    ** All functions are UK wide.

    And so on across various parts of the NHS.

  39. @ Old Nat

    I’m not aware of polling on the public’s view of what’s most important in the NHS but I think staffing would feature high on the list.

    Most of the unions & staff organisations which NHS workers belong to are UK wide with local branches which include, but are not restricted to, branches representing the devolved regions.

    So, many (most?) of the staff share a common purpose & common organisations across the NHS; I think that is an equally important way to view the NHS as via the structures imposed on it by politicians.
    8-)

  40. If 60 million people refer to the organisation as “the NHS” but olenat says its not, surely it would be best to agree that he’s the one who’s right?

    That would save an awful lot of unnecessary debate, since we all know it IS the NHS anyway.

  41. Three years ago the shadow chancellor was hauled over the coals by Nat Rothschild for breaching the “dripped pure poison” confidences. Mandelson responded in kind with arch references to dodgy funding approaches to Oleg Deripaska… consequently Osborne’s stock was very low within the Tory party.

    At the time Cameron insisted that he wouldn’t hesitate to sack his friend if he thought he wasn’t up to the job:

    h
    ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/06/david-cameron-george-osborne

    Thus far he has indeed shown himself averse to upsetting the balance of the cabinet, which was to a large extent dictated by the coalition agreement – any minor changes thus far were reported as having had Osborne’s fingerprints all over them. A number of ministers, junior ministers etc are said to owe their first loyalty to the chancellor.

    Cameron and Osborne together are seen to have a weakening grip over their party recently. Cameron can either hope that HoL rebellion/disquiet about the chancellor and so on dies down, or he can attempt to strike out on a bold new path.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/06/david-cameron-george-osborne

  42. Amber

    I agree that most of the staff across the different health care systems in the UK share a common purpose.

    Indeed, I’d go further and suggest that most staff in most health care systems across the world share that same common purpose.

    I found that I had the same common purpose as teachers in England, Australia, Sweden, Finland, the USA and even Albania. Undoubtedly, I would have had that same shared value set with teachers in other countries.

    That doesn’t suggest that there is an international education “system”.

  43. Shall we call it the INTERnational Health Service then? That seems a jolly good compromise.

  44. JayBlanc

    Thanks for the list. However, I fear that you are compounding different things.

    It’s not uncommon for different systems to share services. For example, Jersey, Guernsey and Malta all buy in services from the English Blood Transfusion Service. Scotland buys in 35 specialist services from around 80 English NHS bodies.

    Incidentally, NHS workforce planning here is conducted by IDS Scotland. There may be some function for NHS England to co-ordinate data for the UK government statistics, though I thought ONS fulfilled that role.

    I do understand that those determined to keep the political unity of the UK would want to emphasise the common provision, but to suggest that the different health systems in the UK are simply sub-divisions ov an overall structure is wholly misleading.

    It will be interesting to see what happens with those remaining aspects of common UK provision like organ transplantation (and providing a larger source population for those is sensible) when the Lansley proposals require Sewell motions from the devolved administrations.

    For anyone else, who is unaware of the differences between the systems and the political complications, this report from Unison may prove illuminating.

    http://www.unison-scotland.org.uk/siu/may11/15.html

  45. @ Old Nat

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/27/1114453/-UK-celebrates-their-National-Health-Service-at-the-Olympic-opening-ceremony

    No censorship on this part of the opening ceremony (apparently there may have been for a segment on honoring terror victims).

  46. Paul Croft

    There is an international healthcare body. It’s called the World Health Organization.

  47. SOCALLIBERAL

    Thanks for the link.

    My son phoned today to say that there had been some controversy because the US coverage cut away from the coverage of the 7/7 victims to interview an American athlete.

    Apparently, some right wing media people were being “Daily Mail-ish” about the NHS section being included – saying it was a deliberate insult to the USA!

  48. Just saw Jim Murphy’s tweet from last night

    “Off out for 15 mins for a takeaway currie or as Tory MP Aidan Burley might call it some multi-cultural crap”

    Jim has gone up in my estimation! (actually I always reckoned he is Labour’s best in Scotland).

  49. @ Old Nat

    The common purpose of the UK NHS staff is supported by common organisations, it’s not an unsubstantiated idea just floating around in the general culture.

    I don’t agree with your teaching analogy either. Making people ‘better’ is an end in itself; the ideology of education, i.e. to what purpose are children being taught, differs widely amongst teachers.
    8-)

  50. Amber

    I do wish you weren’t so nationalistic! :-)

    Unison, for example, also represents healthcare workers who aren’t in the UK, and don’t work in any of the UK’s NHS systems (Health & Social Care in NI).

    What’s this obsession with linking organisations to the UK?

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