There are two new polls out tonight. The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, so after an eleven point lead yesterday we are back into the middle of the normal nine to ten point lead that YouGov have averaged around for the last month or so.

Secondly there is a new poll from TNS BMRB, conducted over the last three days, which has topline figures of CON 30%(-2), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 17%(-1). Changes are from their last poll in June.


319 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. Good luck !!!

    Good look too :-)

  2. Extremely looking forward to tonight., for no other reason than the countdown to 12th August begins!

  3. Are you a shooter Anmary?

  4. And what would that be Colin?

  5. 12 August……….The Glorious 12th………Mass annual slaughter of Red Grouse……

    ….I obviously misunderstood you :-)

  6. Chrislane,
    ‘The Labour Party seems to do well when there is good news, and voters feel safe to allow a softer fiscal approach.

    1945: post war hope

    1964 and 1966 Boom

    1997. Ken Clark’s boom.’

    In 1964 and 1966 there was a strong sense of the economy being in a mess with Labour inheriting a record balance of payments deficit following ’13 years of Tory misrule’.

  7. Ah yes, I see, very clever!

    On the issue at hand I was starting to get enthusiastic, I feel the Torch relay helped greatly, but then I see the BBC going into sycophantic overkill and it just puts me off.

    The quality of BBC presenter really has deteriorated, over the years. Much like the shocking Jubilee coverage.

  8. Colin

    In my youth, I spent some time as a grouse beater. Beaters are well placed to estimate which gun gets which birds, and whose dog is sent out to collect such dying bird.

    One of my fellow beaters was incensed that the royal consort seemed to miss a lot of birds, but still sent his dog out to collect those that fell. The sight of him leaning out of the lorry afterwards shouting imprecations at Philip was rather funny – given that he was chairman of the University Conservative Society!

  9. ANMARY

    It was the only significance of Aug 12 I could think of-what is the one you are anticipating.?

    I agree with you about the Torch relay. It has been planned very effectively & has brought out the crowds all around the country.

    I fear that the rest is very London centric. Inevitable I suppose-and the OLympic Park is a triumph.

    I thought BBC had certainly upped their game-but on the whole prefer Sky.

  10. I do bitterly resent being told by the media that I must enjoy a particular event whether that be the Olympics , the Jubilee or the football World Cup..Many people – like myself – I am sure recoil from the hype and hysteria surrounding them.
    I have not watched the Olympics since the Ovett v Coe contests of the 1980 Moscow Games when I remember being keen to see Coe on account of his Tory affiliations.. I have no interest whatsoever in tonight’s entertainment spectacle and the physical location of the Games will not make an iota of difference to my intention to totally ignore them.
    I was appalled that the London bid was successful back in 2005 and have to say that if any kind of fiasco does arise, I shall derive some wry satisfaction from the look on the faces of Coe and Blair!

  11. @ American Bystander

    “Only in some midwestern states.

    I live in Michigan, it’s less Democrat than it’s been since the early 90?s. People will refuse to accept reality if in a time of crisis. It’s part of my theory that people are generally irrational when it comes to voting. Same goes with Indiana, Obama saved the industries in that state, but it won’t mean much because it’s a certain GOP gain. (except perhaps in the Senate, Donnelly is a really solid candidate, while Mourdock is not.)

    Also, we can’t forget the west and north of Michigan, which is devoutly Protestant and less tied to the auto industry.

    Minnesota has fallen to single digits as well, which is depressing considering it was the only state which went to Mondale in 84.

    Consistently good news about Ohio though.”

    I don’t think you can look at one single poll and pronounce a pattern. PPP btw (which is one of the better pollsters out there and despite what Chris Matthews says, has a lean towards Republicans) has Obama up by 14% in your home state.

    The rustbelt including those states that went for Kerry and Gore are Obama’s weak underbelly in this election. He has never been all that strong there among white blue collar workers. He got their votes last time because the economy was so bad and the revulsion towards Dubya was so great (didn’t hurt that Obama was a midwesterner as well), not out of a great love for Obama. And those places continue to suffer.

    Ironically, Obama is in a far better position in Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado than he is in Michigan or Pennsylvania.

  12. ‘I have not watched the Olympics since the Ovett v Coe contests of the 1980 Moscow Games when I remember being keen to see Coe lose on account of his Tory affiliations.. ‘

    Corrected!

  13. OLDNAT

    Not sure I follow the logic you provide for that being funny.

    Would it not have been as funny if your fellow beater had different political allegiances?

    Where does politics come into it at all ?-mowing down squadrons of red grouse is a multi million £ earner for Scotland. All sorts of oiks & foreigners participate .

    I’m surprised Salmond hasn’t tried to make it a Scolympics event.

  14. It has JUST started raining for the,first time,this,week in my part of SE London. Must be it’s way north to Stratford.

  15. GRAHAM

    @”I remember being keen to see Coe lose on account of his Tory affiliations.. ‘”

    !

    It is remarks like that which make me realise what an outsider I am on UKPR.

    I feel very sorry for you-& I would say that if “Coe” & “Tory” had read “Ovett” & “Labour”

    Wanders off to watch telly shaking head .

  16. @Colin

    Coe has done an excellent job. It is not common for top sportsmen to become top administrators.

    The London 2012 bid saw vital contributions from Coe, KL, TB, David Beckham and many others.

    And Coe, BJ, DC and others have overseen the,realisation of the project.

  17. Colin,
    I have no idea as to Ovett’s politics – he may well be a Tory too ,though I am not aware that he has made public his political preferences.
    Having said that, I actually do believe that a person’s politics does say more themselves as a human being than – say – nationality.I do not believe in slavishly supporting individual GB members of a sporting team when some of them display quite despicable personal characteristics – politics is but one factor I would take account of.

  18. I’m not a great fan of the Olympics as currently constituted, mainly through a mild revulsion at the corporatist capture of what should be a sporting event. I guess it was too short notice for the IOC to react to the financial collapse, but the sight of mega yachts of the super rich moored on the Thames and given preferential treatment doesn’t fill me with excitement. We need to be rolling back the grip of big business, in sport as well as in most other areas of public life.

    Having said that, hat’s off to the participants, the organisers and the volunteers. Very much like @Graham, I won’t do as I’m told by the media in terms of my emotions, but I really hope the event is great, and people who like this kind of think have a great time. I’ll probably watch a bit of the cycling, and I’ll get very excited. Opening events really aren’t my thing, but I do want it to be a real show.

    I would say that everyone in the UK ought just to be a bit proud of what has been done, both in putting the show together and also the prospects for Team GB. There’s a time to grumble, a time to be cynical, and then there’s a time to sit back and simply enjoy the fact that a lot of people are sitting back and enjoying themselves, even if you don’t love it yourself.

    While I doubt we would have got here had we had a Tory government in 2007, that’s the limit of my political comment on this. Seb Coe, a Tory, has done a great job. It was Labour that won the games and appointed him. Tory Boris is doing a very good job talking forward Red Ken’s vision, and I’m sure there are some excellent Lib Dems somewhere in the mix.

    Tory PM John Major set up the National Lottery which has done an epic amount of good for British sport and sporting achievement, and Labour minister Richard Caborne was probably one of the most effective ministers in recent years. [In recent times Sports ministers from all parties seem to have been very good].

    Thanks in part to a number of key politicians on all sides, GB is now a global sporting powerhouse. While we tend to measure ourselves in sporting terms by our rather dismal displays on the football park, I don’t think any other
    nation compares with the UK in terms of our standing in so many sports across the spectrum of sporting events. I would put money down that across the full range of sports, few, if any nations can better the UK in aggregate performance.

    If this gets a few more overweight kids off the sofa and onto the cycle track, or tennis court, or judo mat – great news.

    Chest out, heads up, and enjoy the show. It’s going to be great.

  19. Anmary: The lead up to such events as the olympics seems designed to put you off it. Dunno what time the opening ceremony actually starts but that would seem a good time to start TV coverage to me.

  20. PS: Since “Great Britain” has the same number of syllables as “Team GB” [what an awful Americanism] what is the advantage of the change?

  21. RAF;
    ‘Coe has done an excellent job. It is not common for top sportsmen to become top administrators.’
    I think some of us are entitled to resent his foisting of his own life obsession on the rest of us.He appears not to be of a high intellectual calibre, and his political career proved to be a big flop – notwithstanding his contacts and the many doors opened for him.

  22. Colin

    The logic should be fairly obvious. Had my fellow beater been a Republican Socialist, then his hurling imprecations at a royal would have contained no incongruence.

    Of course, it may be that there are lots of Tory Republicans in your part of the world, and thus you can’t see the incongruence.

  23. @socal

    It is true that PPP had Obama up 14 and that Rassmussen (Republican Bias) had him up 6, however, it wasn’t just EPIC-MRA that had Romney up 1, another local pollster did too.

    Now it is true that EPIC-MRA isn’t very reliable, after all, they did have John Dingell (My Congressman) losing his seat in 2010, even though he’s held it for 60 years, they seem to oversample the rural areas, however, the Franklin Poll is a mystery.

  24. @laszlo

    AW occassionally deletes a string of responses to a comment which he has moderated – consequently the thread can appear a little frayed.

    Great to see you have been posting again though.

  25. Am watching the opening ceremony. It’s clinically insane and I suspect Danny Boyle is on every drug imaginable. Am enjoying it immensely. Synchronised Brunels. Not enough Daleks. Ooookkkay. Have many, many doritos and red wines. Will post progressively more and more incoherently as night passes…. :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  26. Loved the idea of Lizzie parachuting into the stadium! :-)

  27. OK. James Bond in Buck House is silly. James Bond in a helicopter with the real Queen is very silly. James Bond and HMQ jumping out of same copter and unionjack ‘chuting to James Bond theme is…absolutely brilliant.

    Regards, Martyn

  28. F*** ME JK ROWLING!

    Er, that’s an exclamation, not a request…

    Regards, Martyn

  29. James Bond. Voldemort. 101 Dalmatians. Alice in Wonderland. Peter Pan. Mike Oldfield. NHS. MARY B****Y POPPINS. Who wrote this? How can we get him to stop? Would we want to? How long until Monty Python?

    Regards, Martyn

  30. MARTYN

    Had you said “F*** ME VOLDEMORT”, it would probably have been taken as a request!

  31. @Oldnat

    LOL!

    @all

    MR BEAN!

    Regards, Martyn

  32. Just returned from a chess match, pleased to have a proper British Chess Grade

    Wonderful spectacle

    GRAHAM.
    yes, but there was optimism in the air in 64 and 66 which Harold captured, then he went on holiday in April 66, mentally, and it was all downhill then, with Prescott leading the strike in the shipping industry.

  33. Kes. Gregory’s Girl. AMOLAD (YES!). Wayne’s World(!). Tardis!

    Sweet. Beatles. Stones. Kinks. Who. Bowie. Queen. Pistols.

    Pretty Vacant in front of the Queen. Blue Order. FGTH. Soul 2 Soul. Eurythymics. Prodigy. Oh *please*, do the Shamen… Oh arse: “Born Slippy” instead: bad call, Boyle

    I’m forever blowing bubbles…oh, lord.

    Blur. Dizzee Rascal. Amy Winehouse. Tiny Tempah. Muse, whining.

    Regards, Martyn

  34. @ Billy Bob

    Thank you. After one and a half years of the hardest working in my life (in terms of time consumption), it seems that I have now more “free” time and especially for meaningful things, like being here. Hopefully it will last.

  35. I’m noticing the glaring omission of a kitchen sink. Hopefully David Beckham will arrive with one under his arm.

  36. BILLY BOB

    Alas, I need to correct you. There was a kitchen sink in one of the video sequences.

    What was missing from the TV spectacular seemed to be – SPORT!

  37. My wife and I are not watching the EVENT,

    Newsnight has just told us that the Queen was ‘parachuted in’.

    Really? I am sorry we missed it now.

  38. @Billy Bob

    The way things are going, we will have synchronised kitchen sink dancing to an Oasis[1] soundtrack sung by David Walliams

    Unfortunately, we now have the parade of many clean living smiling athletes embodying the Olympic ideal from every single country on Earth. It’ll go on for three centuries… ;-)

    Regards, Martyn

    [1] he missed Oasis out and included Blur: Boyle will be exiled from the North for that…

  39. Greece entered to the Chemical Brothers. Chad to the Pet Shop Boys. Boyle has my playlist.

    Regadrs, Martyn

  40. Just saw that the mound is representing Glastonbury Tor. I had wondered if it was there as representing Old Sarum.

  41. Sue Barker is pulling an absolute stormer. More facts than Google. (“Which is the country with the most golds per capita, Sue?”. “New Zealand”. No pause. My chin hits the floor).

    Huw Edwards is being *very* tactful about North Korea. Sue Barker knows the name of all Kim Jong Il’s sons. Sue rocks. Huw sucks.

    Oh lord, we’re still on the D’s….

    Regards, Martyn

  42. @ Laszlo

    Yes, welcome back :-)

  43. @Martyn

    Nicely kicked off with The Jam… I was hoping for Paul Weller on a a tandem with Bradley Wiggins at the very least.

    @Old Nat

    At least we have the cauldron to look forward to… something a bit more impressive than the shinny tin bath we’ve seen up and down the county perhaps.

  44. I gather a good time on UKPR is being had by (well) most.

    There really must be more to life than this – mustn’t there?

    I shall be glued to seeing if ‘Cav’ can survive nine times over Box Hill. Tune in tomorrow at 1315.

    I don’t go for the lefty stuff apparently portrayed.

  45. Why hasn’t Team GB appeared yet? Do the hosts come last in the parade?

  46. @All

    The Chemical Brothers. Greece. Afganistan. Albania. American Samoa. Oh lord, this is going to take forever. We’re doing Adele “Rolling in the Deep”: cliche abounds. Boyle pulls it back: Fiji enter to “Stayin’ Alive”. It *really* works.

    @Oldnat

    How can he include Glastonbury Tor without the obvious theistic resonance. Is Christ about to hangglide in on a surfboard?

    Regards, Martyn

  47. I just hope Cav is in bed (preferably alone) and not what Martyn is on.

  48. MARTYN

    ” Is Christ about to hangglide in on a surfboard?”

    Damn! Boyle missed that obvious one! :-)

  49. Argentina. Huw Edwards: “One of the biggest economies in South America”. Forgotten something, Huw?

    @Howard

    You said “…There really must be more to life than this – mustn’t there?…”

    Possibly, but for sheer exuberant insanity, you’d be hard-pressed to beat this…:-)

    You then said “…I just hope Cav is in bed (preferably alone) and not what Martyn is on..”

    Are you kidding? I’m watching this with Americans. I haven’t had as much “WTF is this” fun since Gore/Bush

    @Billy Bob

    I really wanted the Clash and “London Calling”. Did I miss it?

    Regards, Martyn

  50. @Martyn – ” …theistic resonance”

    You must have been out getting more doritos when Tim Berners-Lee appeared among us.

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