There are two new polls out tonight. The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, so after an eleven point lead yesterday we are back into the middle of the normal nine to ten point lead that YouGov have averaged around for the last month or so.

Secondly there is a new poll from TNS BMRB, conducted over the last three days, which has topline figures of CON 30%(-2), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 17%(-1). Changes are from their last poll in June.


319 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. Obama 81%
    Stein 69%
    Alexander 61%
    Romney 39%
    Paul 25%

    I think they are overrating how left wing Obama is on Economic Policy, I think I’m more with Alexander on those lines, as I’m for nationalization of problem banks. I’d never vote Socialist in its current state though, I think the members are slightly unstable and less Fabian and more Marxist.

    Also, I’d never vote for Jill Stein and her Green Party in a gazillion years…

  2. Apologies for the typos – mobile phone…

  3. @ Alex Harvey

    Re DMil, it was revealed that he had signed off on the torture of British nationals by the USA back when he was foreign secretary, which would have really messed up Labour’s attempts to reposition itself on civil liberties!
    —————————-
    I don’t believe that’s an accurate statement. I made the same allegation; Billy Bob & others said it was not true; & I think they are probably right.

    However, perception is important in politics whether something is true or not.

    I prefer Ed Miliband to David.

  4. @ambivalentsupporter
    Fair doos!

  5. Thank you Amber Star.

    Below is the list of investigations into abuses… 2004 seems to have been a turning point of some kind – I think firmer guidelines were issued at that time. Miliband’s speech in Mumbai in early 2008 clearly rejected compromises over international law and human rights which had been sanctioned during the “war on terror”.

    h
    ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/13/uk-investigations-torture-rendition-guide?intcmp=239

  6. TNS/BRMB: CON 30%(-2), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 17%(-1).

    I know I keep saying this, but yet another non YouGov poll showing the Tories in the low at or around 30%.

    Interesting.

  7. Ah… If only Labour had chosen DM, an establishment figure. Who wouldn’t have stuck his head out over the banks. Who would have spoken softly about free-market capitalism being quite nice actually. Who would still be quite chummy with News International…

  8. @Amber, BillyBob

    Ah, I spoke in error. Sorry, was a half-remembered article from The Paper We Do Not Speak Of.

  9. JAY BLANC and CROSSBATii.

    Interesting polling, and I amy have to make a pligrimage to atone for my sin of under estimating ED M.
    Mea Culpa…. maxima culpa…..omnes angelos et sanctos..

  10. Just heard Lord Archer on WATO call Ming Campbell a bastard! Priceless. Must be worth 10% in the polls,not sure which direction or to whom.

    Seriously,the TNS poll does look a bit worrysome for the Tories.

  11. @Jablanc – “Who would still be quite chummy with News International…”

    Miliband D: 96 published newspaper articles since 2002. Times/ST 8, Sun 1.

    Miliband E: 58 published newspaper article since 2007. Times/ST 6, Sun 2, NoW 1.

    So neither has been particularly chummy.

  12. “Annualised GDP growth of 1.5% was measured between April and June – down from an upwardly revised figure of 2% in the previous quarter.

    With the economy the key battlegound ahead of November’s presidential election, the slow erosion of growth will be the greatest concern for Mr Obama as he prepares to face Republican, Mitt Romney.

    Weaker hiring, nervous consumers, sluggish manufacturing and the overhang of Europe’s debt crisis all point to the prospect of a new recession, with economists forecasting a flat performance for the second half of the year.

    Consumers and businesses cut back on their spending sharply in the last quarter – with many worried that looming cuts because of the huge US deficit – coupled with the eurozone crisis – would hit investment further.”

    Sky News

  13. @Alex Harvey

    I don’t think anyone wants to be an apologist for the bad things that have happened. Unfortunately being Foreign Sec isn’t likely give a politician ultimate power to overturn the “national sercurity interests” of the day… as Nick Clegg probably learned when he declared the Iraq war to have been “illegal” from the government dispatch box while representing the David Cameron at PMQs in 2010.

  14. @Colin

    That seems to be very possible, that people suspend disbelief and believe [Mitt Romney – AW] will somehow manage the economy better than Obama.

  15. @Billy Bob,

    Indeed, but try telling most people that.

  16. if these polls are to be taken at face value, then the Conservatives are back where they were about ten years ago in terms of popularity. Thanks this time to UKIP just as much as Labour. They won’t want to be flirting with 30% or worse too often, it’s a long haul up from there.

  17. @KeithP

    Hard to believe really, recessions do interesting things. But if there’s an election before 2015, and Labour wins by around current numbers, do they get “natural governing party” status? The way the population of the UK seems to be designed may make it very hard for the Tories to get Majority Government in the near future. Labour had success with the Left split, while the Tories are dealing with smaller numbers and a potential split on the right.

    The Tories have had a depressing last two decades based on my limited knowledge on the matter, but I don’t necessarily see improvement for a while.

    Also, I would like to apologize for my derogatory comments towards Governor Romney. His performance yesterday and today’s depressing GDP figures have given me a bit much anxiety.

  18. @ Colin

    With the economy the key battlegound ahead of November’s presidential election, the slow erosion of growth will be the greatest concern for Mr Obama as he prepares to face Republican, Mitt Romney.
    —————————–
    Unless the US voters are different to we Brits, ‘the slow erosion of growth’ won’t change the polling at all.

    Pace the ongoing friendly ‘ding dong’ between Anthony & Nick P. Anthony said that -0.7 growth will not have a noticeable effect on the incumbent’s polling; Nick P thinks otherwise.

    The score so far (based on no. of polls since the -0.7):
    AW 1
    NP 0
    I await tomorrow’s YG for the ST with breathless anticipation.

    I’m inclined to think that the US voters are not so very different to UK ones so the speculation around the impact on the Obama v Romney campaign adds to my interest in the Anthony v Nick game which is being played out here on UKPR. :-)

  19. @Daniel

    Maybe because nobody believes the GDP figures. They currently make no sense at all.

    It is also interesting to note that OECD think plan A is the right way forward. Full marks to Cameron and Osborne for holding their nerve and sticking to the Plan.

  20. @Colin

    1.5% growth p.a.? We’d kill for that, wouldn’t we??

    By the way, I see you attribute the story you quote to Sky News. This wouldn’t be our old friend Jeff Randall at work again, would it?

  21. [Snip – AW]

    I got 86% Obama and the rest nowhere. Thanks to those who took up the invitation. I was also a bit iffy about same sex marriage and a bit right wing on the economy so a wonder I scored so high. I did not know that Obama was so ‘environmental’ (if the quiz is not biased somehow).

    Apparently in the USA you only have to accept scientific fact to be judged some kind of greeny freak. :-)

  22. @Howard

    Yeah, it’s weird, I’m nowhere near a Green (I support coal development for example) yet I somehow placed further Green than Socialist, even though I matched more with the Socialists on economic issues.

    The questions were acknowledging the existence of global warming and evolution, while also whether or not I think the space program needs extra funding, uh yeah, I suppose that makes me a hippie now a days.

    But a lot of people I know were getting Jill Stein…

    And yeah, 1.5% might be good GDP in the UK, but it isn’t in the US, considering we were at 2% just a while ago. Also, birthrate is down, which speaks poorly on the future of the American welfare state (not that there was any future for the American welfare state.)

  23. Other Howard – “Maybe because nobody believes the GDP figures”

    No-one believes them, no one at all? Crikey. I missed that poll.

    Perhaps if we wait a poll will come along asking what people believe… though all the economic optimism questions suggest the overwhelming majority of the public think the country is indeed in a very bad way economically.

  24. @CrossBat11,

    I think the Tories have done a bad job of managing the economy (like Labour), but I seriously doubt we could achieve growth of 1.5% (like America) in the current economic climate, what with the Euro crisis and everything. Especially as 50% of our exports and business is within Europe and relies so heavily on Europe’s failing economies (unlike the US). Take Germany – great economy, good manufacturing base, largely avoided the worse of the economic crisis – and yet, they too now are being dragged heavily down by the Euro crisis.

    And then, of course, despite growth, US debt (and deficit) is huge and the unemployment rate is very high at 8.2% – slightly higher, in fact, than the UK unemployment rate of 8.1%. So although the US is experiencing growth (albeit very sluggish growth) that certainly won’t feel like much consolation for the ordinary American living day-to-day! It is also coming at a cost as its debts continue to build up.

    If anything, the Euro crisis should make our politicians realise that we need to become less reliant on Europe’s ailing economies and build better trading relationships with Asia and the rest of the industrialised world.

  25. @ Billy Bob

    “I see it is being reported as Mitt Romney’s Excellent Gaffe-Filled Adventure. By aiming to score a tiny little point about how to stage an athletics event, he has managed to sabotage his entire diplomacy offensive and make himself the butt of jokes to boot.”

    He’s gotten a free pass from the media on his foreign policy creds. Unlike Obama who was absolutely grilled and attacked back in 2008. I wonder if that may change now. It is scary to imagine him as President. What if he attempts to take off Manmohan Singh’s head garb and cut off his hair? You have to admit, it is a legitimate question.

    It scares me that he’s basically brought back all of Dubya’s foreign policy people and is surrounded by the Neocons. If this is what he does to his allies, I think this should scare the living daylights out of people what he might do to those he considers enemies or those he doesn’t like.

    One important lesson about international diplomacy that’s lost on Romney, Dubya, and others like them is that you might not like someone but you have to work with them anyway.

    @ Roger Mexico

    “When Joe Biden is criticising you for being tactless, you’ve certainly achieved something.”

    Lol. Biden isn’t tactless so much as he lacks a filter.

    “Real Househusbands of Islington?”

    Lol. I hate that whole series (the only one I kinda tolerated and occassionally watched, the D.C. one, got cancelled after one season). I do love the Real Housewives of South Boston though.

    Blair’s show would have to be something different, something somewhat clever, perhaps with a double entendre. Like, Tony Blair’s Day at the Dog Races.

  26. Amber – actually I think I reserved judgement on whether or not the -0.7 would have an effect. I doubt very much the country staying in recession would have had any effect, I doubt very much small growth in the economy would have had any effect either. However, the much worse than expected figures are a possibility.

    Then again the Olympics do seem to have taken over the news agenda completely now, growth dropping to -0.7 is already yesterday’s chip paper.

  27. AmbivalentSupporter/AmericanBystander –

    I think USA growth figures are annualised and UK ones are not. So a US growth figure of 1.5% would be expressed as 0.35% if it happened in the UK

  28. To be fair to Anthony I was suggesting that the phone hacking charges and ill-judged use of cash remarks would depress Tory voting intention. The big GDP drop came after that.

    It looks like he is right not me…but there could just be a bit of delay…

  29. I think that in any case, a poor economy does not always mean good electoral news for Labour.

    The Labour Party seems to do well when there is good news, and voters feel safe to allow a softer fiscal approach.

    1945: post war hope

    1964 and 1966 Boom

    1997. Ken Clark’s boom.

    We can discount the special factor of Feb 1974, when Heath in any case, would have had more seats than Wilson if he had not insisted on reforms in the North of Ireland, thus alienating the Unionists.

  30. @ Amber Star

    “Unless the US voters are different to we Brits, ‘the slow erosion of growth’ won’t change the polling at all.”

    We are. We’re impatient and we tend to blame whoever is in charge. Where Obama is lucky is that there’s widespread agreement that he didn’t cause the current mess and inherited it from Dubya. Still that doesn’t really help him much. It’s not enough that Dubya drove the car in a ditch, they’re wondering why Obama hasn’t gotten it out yet.

    Of course, the successful Republican attempts to block him from doing anything to help the economy improve is starting to become better known and so Obama gets some credit there.

    Just remember something. The Republican Party deliberately sabotaged the 1968 Paris Peace talks in order to prolong the Vietnam War in order to get Nixon elected. The Republicans also established back channels with the Iranians during the hostage crisis in order to make sure they weren’t released until after the 1980 Presidential election in order to help Reagan.

    But the thing is, when they did those things, they did them covertly. The American public didn’t know about these things (in the case of Nixon’s treasonous shenanigans, only LBJ knew about it because Johnson was secretly wiretapping Nixon). Anyway, Republicans have been more open about their deliberate attempts to sabotage the economy and that’s pissing off a lot of people. You know, when you’re going to do something to harm your own country just for short term political gain, you can’t be honest and open with the public about what you’re doing.

  31. I mean, if Romney makes a few more gaffes on his trips, which is possible as he’s going to Poland and Israel next, which are probably anxiety fests which I don’t envy Romney for taking the plunge in, Obama could probably take a slapstick sort of approach in the debates whenever foreign policy comes up. The whole “This past year, I had to stay next to the emergency line making sure that my opponent didn’t cause any international incidents.” sort of thing, but perhaps funnier.

    The thing about Biden though, is that his gaffes became part of his charm, especially after he called out Milosevic. People began to view it as a quirk and he became less of a running joke. When he plagiarized Kinnock btw, I don’t believe there was much malicious intent, it was more like “I really liked that soundbite, I want to say it too” without necessarily gaining anything from it.

    I personally prefer Biden over Hillary, and I suspect that I’m not the only Democrat who thinks that, as much as people don’t like to admit it.

    But my point is, considering that, maybe people will begin to like the fact that Romney has no filters. Romney should take a page out of the Biden book and save the unfiltered criticism for a war criminal though, instead of the Prime Minister of America’s greatest ally.

  32. Keith,

    – ” They won’t want to be flirting with 30% or worse too often, it’s a long haul up from there.”

    Tell that to the Scottish Tories. They have been hovering at HALF that level, roughly 15% (+/- 4%), for approximately 20 years now, and, if anything, they are actually sinking slightly further instead of “hauling up”.

    Declines are not inevitably reversed.

  33. @ American Bystander

    “That seems to be very possible, that people suspend disbelief and believe [Mitt Romney – AW] will somehow manage the economy better than Obama.”

    That narrative has started to change with the Bain attacks and there has been a shit in poll responses on that question. People have a built in assumption that someone who has a lot of money would know something about the economy. That starts to change when people find out that your success comes from something that tends to devastate their local economy. Also, Romney’s opposition to the auto bailout has hurt him in the Midwest and is helping change the narrative. Had he been President and vetoed the bailout, he would have launched the country into a Great Depression with over a million immediate job losses.

  34. @AW

    You are correct on growth figures, it’s a projection as to what GDP growth will be based on . Naturally, the projection went down, because we can’t have nice things these days…

  35. Yes, sadly there is talk that the US could now be heading back into recession.

  36. @Socal

    Only in some midwestern states.

    I live in Michigan, it’s less Democrat than it’s been since the early 90’s. People will refuse to accept reality if in a time of crisis. It’s part of my theory that people are generally irrational when it comes to voting. Same goes with Indiana, Obama saved the industries in that state, but it won’t mean much because it’s a certain GOP gain. (except perhaps in the Senate, Donnelly is a really solid candidate, while Mourdock is not.)

    Also, we can’t forget the west and north of Michigan, which is devoutly Protestant and less tied to the auto industry.

    Minnesota has fallen to single digits as well, which is depressing considering it was the only state which went to Mondale in 84.

    Consistently good news about Ohio though.

  37. @ Tinged Fringe

    I received 87% for Obama, 80% for Jill Stein, 63% for Stewart Alexander, 15% for Ron Paul, and 12% for Romney.

    “A realistic one – fundamental rights are a myth used to justify the protection of some types of liberty and some types of legal privilege [1].
    Just because it’s an effective ideology, doesn’t make them any less real – once you accept that fundamental rights don’t exist, you are more liberated to be able to reform [2].”

    Well I don’t see them as a myth because I know that laws have been struck down and executive actions permanently blocked because they infringed upon fundamental rights. They are real. They do exist.

    You know, it’s kinda ironic. The only Americans who ever pretend there is no such thing as a fundamental right are right wingers (and they usually contradict themselves when it comes to a fundamental right they actually like).

    “Again – the right to own land is a “fundamental right” which makes land reform virtually impossible. I believe we should reform land from ownership to stewardship (and thus abolish the landed aristocracy in one swoop) – but the ideology of fundamental rights stops those reforms.”

    My response to this is huh? There is no landed aristocracy in the United States and there has never been any kind of support or movement for “land reform.” Also, when it comes to seizing land that’s needed by the government, it’s not impossible to do. It’s called eminent domain.

    “Thanks for the court cases – I might get to read them at some point.”

    You’re welcome. Loving v. Virginia, Zablocki v. Redhail, Turner v. Safely, and Perez v. Sharp are the most important ones.

    “I think perhaps you misunderstood me.
    I’m not talking about making marriage illegal, I’m talking about liberating it.

    Marriage, as an institution, existed before government recognition (i.e civil marriage) and it’d exist without government recognition.
    The reason to have legal recognition is two fold – to enforce the marriage contract [3] and to decide which persons are allowed to get married, i.e to make it a privilege.
    So marriage, in most nations, can only be between a single man and a single woman – i.e heterosexual monogamy. It used to be that it could only be between people of the same race, etc.
    So abolishing the legal institution of marriage won’t abolish marriage as people will still get married. They will still have private ceremonies before their God/Gods/No-Gods, but the state will stay out.
    Abolishing the legal institution of marriage will liberate marriage for everybody.”

    Marriage doesn’t need to be liberated. There’s nothing wrong with a government institution of marriage. Yes, it has religious roots but it’s a purely civil institution. Religious marriage recognizes the government institution of marriage, not vice versa.

    I mean, your whole argument would be akin to arguing that the solution to the fact that there are too few women on the corporate boards of Fortune 500 companies should be to abolish all Fortune 500 companies.

  38. AMBER

    Thanks

    Crossbat

    Depends on who gets killed :-)

    But 1.5% growth with their government debt levels-and a constitutional ceiling on borrowing looming, with the execuitve polarised…………..?? not worth killing for I suspect.

    No-not Randall-just a Sky News :-

    http://news.sky.com/story/965898/us-economic-recovery-slows-further

    Would it make a difference to you if it was from Randall ?

  39. SOCALLIBERAL

    1st line of your 4.23 pm response to American Bystander.

    Was that a typo, a reference to Romney, or both?

  40. @ Old Nat

    “1st line of your 4.23 pm response to American Bystander.

    Was that a typo, a reference to Romney, or both?”

    Ack, I just noticed that. It was a most definite typo. I meant to say “shift.” Allrighty then.

  41. @ SoCaL & Anthony

    By way of confirming that I read every word of SoCals comments:

    …a shit in poll responses on that question (4.23pm). You actually meant a shift, yes?

    I don’t know whether Anthony will be bothered enough to edit it & delete this comment which draws attention to it. I thought I’d mention it, in case he’d want to. :-)

  42. SOCALLIBERAL

    Has there been much mention in the USA of Cameron describing Salt Lake City as “the middle of nowhere”?

  43. @ Anthony

    Anthony, was there a post removed today and with this the reaponses to that post? I am only asking it because my responses that were for a while visible are not there now, while the original post reemerged without the last sentence and I want to make it sure that I didn’t breach the house rules. Thanks.

  44. @Oldnat

    I’m not Socal, but I believe only the Mayor of Salt Lake City has really complained. Though I should say that Brigham Young decided to settle there because it was in the middle of nowhere.

    Another interesting piece is that Governor of Louisiana Bobby Jindal has said that people don’t care about what the President does overseas and that all that matters is what happens at home. I guess they are now trying to suggest that a Presidential Candidate’s reaction under pressure and foreign policy are irrelevant. Seems like a pretty weak argument to me and it might cause problems in the future if the GOP has to keep on using it.

  45. AMERICANBYSTANDER

    Thanks for that input.

    One of my NY City nephews commented that NY was “the middle of nowhere” because only Manhattan was actually “anywhere”, and, therefore, everywhere else was “nowhere”! :-)

  46. Good Evening all, getting excited about the Games, I did not expect to be…

    Thinking in prayer, also about the murders of the Israeli athletes 40 years ago in Munich when I was a young man.

  47. Evening all, finally back from work.

    Actually spoke with the CEO of Ipsos-MORI today, setting up an internship in the spring. Very exciting!

    PS. Just wanted to say how nice it is to finally join in the conversation here!

  48. @ Nick P

    The big GDP drop came after that.
    —————————
    I thought your forecast & ‘challenge’ were made on the day when the GDP was announced. I was having such fun with my version of it, too. I was going to carry a torch, ring a bell & award a gold medal on Monday (best of 3). Now I’ll just have to watch the regular Olympics like everybody else! ;-)

  49. @ Anthony

    Perhaps if we wait a poll will come along asking what people believe…[about the GDP figures].
    ———————-
    Ooh, maybe the YG for ST have asked about it! (I know you’re not going to tell us) – I’m looking forward to it now anyway, so I hope they have. :-)

  50. THE OTHER HOWARD

    @”It is also interesting to note that OECD think plan A is the right way forward. Full marks to Cameron and Osborne for holding their nerve and sticking to the Plan.”

    It is interesting-and encouraging from GO’s point of view.

    But there are no votes in it for him.

    The numbers from Capital Economics , pressaging the Autumn Statement & 2013 Buget are much more politically charged.

    Significant slippage on existing deficit reduction forecasts. Indeed touch & go whether 2012/13 will actually show a reduction on 2011/12’s £126 bn.

    Capital Economics have 12/13 at £ 128 bn.

    I can hear Balls now & see the headlines-The Deficit is now going up, not down.

    Osborne will want to avoid that sound byte. Even if it only lasts for a year, it will do much political damage.

    Good look to Team GB.

    Huge congratulations to everyone that brought this enormous project together-particularly to the thousands of unsung volunteers.

    Massive advert for UK PLC.

    :-)

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