Two quick topical questions from YouGov’s daily polling over the last couple of days. First, after David Gauke’s comments yesterday YouGov asked if people thought it actually was morally acceptable to pay tradesmen “cash in hand”. 49% of respondents said it was morally acceptable to pay “cash in hand”, 36% thought it was not.

Secondly, ahead of the (now cancelled!) strike by border, immigration and other Home Office staff YouGov asked whether people thought it was or was not acceptable for PCS staff to go on strike around the time of the Olympics. 64% of people said striking at the time of the Olympics would have been unacceptable, 24% said it would have been acceptable.


251 Responses to “YouGov on Cash-in-Hand and Olympic strike action”

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  1. I too doubt that GO won’t be replaced as Chancellor; his ratings haven’t fallen below Ed Balls’s (that I’m aware of, anyway), Hunt remains en post despite the clamour for his dismissal so why would DC replace his closest ally?

    Furthermore DC & GO are ‘believers’ in the business cycle, are they not? The nice thing about that is you’re allowed to assume that eventually things will turn themselves around.
    8-)

  2. @Amber

    You mentioned Ed Milibands PM score lagging behind labour VI – how can you tell? I saw AW’s post about this a little while ago but I didn’t really follow and I don’t see how to derive the difference between a “good” and a “bad” PM score – whats is there beyond being better than the other guy?

  3. @ Old Nat

    Headline: London ‘to blame’ for flag error

    Olympic officials in London are to blame for a flag row which jeopardised a women’s football game at Hampden Stadium in Glasgow, it has emerged.
    ———————–

    I know you won’t be gloating, Old Nat, because you weren’t being a bigot – or whatever – during your wee spat with Neil A. But I thought I’d point out that the BBC seem to think it is worth top billing on their UK news page (not just the Scotland one).
    8-)

  4. @ Trofimovspocketwatch

    I was referring to Best PM rating. YouGov’s most recent result has DC on 30 & EM on 25. Therefore DC’s lead of +5 over EM has halved from +10 since the question was previously asked.

    But when Best PM rating is compared to voting intention:
    Cons 33 DC 30 = -3 for DC
    Lab 44 EM 25 = -19 for EM

    My expectation is that EM’s detractors will focus on that -19 rather than the fact that Ed is only -5 points behind the incumbent. 8-)

  5. What will joe public make of the PM’s speech today in which he said he/they would “finish the job” on deficit reduction?

    Clearly the UK needs more of the same medicine as the first prescription has not delivered results. More of the same it will be…

    We’re all doomed….

  6. Here’s another illuminating piece from DC’s speech today:

    He said: “We have discovered something in the last couple of weeks that business travellers and investors would welcome even more, which is if you really tool up and put the effort in running a good service at Heathrow you can reduce the border queues right down.”

    Doh!?

  7. @John B Dick

    You said “…How are they [immigrants] counted?…”

    Tracking of migration into the UK is always problematic: internal registration is not compulsory and the Republic of Ireland/UK border is porous. Broadly speaking, the data are calculated by capturing people when they interact with the authorities: border control (ports, airports), NHS (GPs), emergency and social services (Home Office). Sometimes they are captured by simply counting, sometimes by estimation via surveys (eg the International Passenger Survey).

    The question of whether to capture residency (last country where you resided) or citizenship (last country to give you a passport) is important: capturing residency is easier but it causes funny bulges (so return of UK businessmen and fishermen during the Cod War was interpreted as Icelandic immigration), capturing citizenship is better but harder

    The sources of data used are:
    • The International Passenger Survey (IPS), a voluntary sample based survey. It is the prime source of long-term migration data providing estimates of both inflows and outflows, but does not cover all migration types
    • Labour Force Survey (LFS) – provides a geographical distribution of long-term immigrants for the calibration of IPS inflow data
    • Home Office, which provides data on asylum seekers and their dependants for 1991 onwards
    • Irish Central Statistics Office, which provides estimates of migration of all citizenships between the UK and Irish Republic for 1991 to 2007
    • Long-term international migration data from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) for estimating long-term international migration to and from Northern Ireland and the rest of the world, from 2008 onwards.

    I’ll give the links in an post below: when Anthony passes them thru moderation, you’ll be able to see them

    Er, regards, Martyn

  8. @John B Dick

    You said “…How are they [immigrants] counted?…”

    Tracking of migration into the UK is always problematic: internal registration is not compulsory and the Republic of Ireland/UK border is porous. Broadly speaking, the data are calculated by capturing people when they interact with the authorities: border control (ports, airports), NHS (GPs), emergency and social services (Home Office). Sometimes they are captured by simply counting, sometimes by estimation via surveys (eg the International Passenger Survey).

    The question of whether to capture residency (last country where you resided) or citizenship (last country to give you a passport) is important: capturing residency is easier but it causes funny bulges (so return of UK businessmen and fishermen during the Cod War was interpreted as Icelandic immigration), capturing citizenship is better but harder

    The sources of data used are:
    • The International Passenger Survey (IPS), a voluntary sample based survey. It is the prime source of long-term migration data providing estimates of both inflows and outflows, but does not cover all migration types
    • Labour Force Survey (LFS) – provides a geographical distribution of long-term immigrants for the calibration of IPS inflow data
    • Home Office, which provides data on asylum seekers and their dependants for 1991 onwards
    • Irish Central Statistics Office, which provides estimates of migration of all citizenships between the UK and Irish Republic for 1991 to 2007
    • Long-term international migration data from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) for estimating long-term international migration to and from Northern Ireland and the rest of the world, from 2008 onwards.

    Er, regards, Martyn

    Links:
    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/may-2012/index.html

  9. According to DC, his wife’s recent experience at Heathrow showed the success of the new effort. “My wife said when she came in from a business trip from Italy she didn’t even have time to put her hand into her bag to get the passport out before it was being checked”

    Seriously!?

    Very little if any of DC’s little stories and responses will reach the yes and ears of joe public.

  10. eyes not yes

  11. “But when Best PM rating is compared to voting intention:
    Cons 33 DC 30 = -3 for DC
    Lab 44 EM 25 = -19 for EM
    My expectation is that EM’s detractors will focus on that -19 rather than the fact that Ed is only -5 points behind the incumbent. ”

    Thanks Amber – but why aren’t we comparing apples to tractors here? Is it that the number simply breaks down to there being people who would vote labour but think someone other than EM would be the best PM?

    I’m just wondering how we deterime a best PM rating is “good” other than by comparing it to the other guy.

    Does that mean there have been times when VI lagged best PM?

  12. Martyn

    Thanks for that detailed reply.

    I am concerned that immigants may leave and not be counted. Or even die.

    Maybe one day we will have more immigrants in the country than the total population.

  13. The thing with Ed is that until theres a suitable alternative – the Labour party will be fine with how hes polling as their share is good.

    Plus their polling overall would be much worse if David was in charge as he’d be unable to fight Cameron in the same way Ed has.

    No, when it comes to an election Ed Miliband needs to sell a ‘team’ of people – his cabinet, and point out that leading the country is about leading a team.

    Unfortunatly as we learnt with Gordon Brown, if that teams starts to pull away from you – its very hard to make this case and your stuck selling yourself.

    Mind you am unsure how the public would respond to Miliband playing ‘Take a Chance on Me’ at his conference and political broadcast…

  14. @

    Does that mean there have been times when VI lagged best PM?
    —————–
    Yes, David Cameron was polling ahead of his Party until fairly recently.

    He may also have been ahead of his Party as Best PM whilst in opposition, we’d need to check. I’m sure that he polled positively as leader ahead of his Party’s VI during the 2010 election campaign but I’m not certain about Best PM.
    8-)

  15. @ Fraser

    Mind you am unsure how the public would respond to Miliband playing ‘Take a Chance on Me’ at his conference and political broadcast…
    —————-
    LOL :-)

    My son & I were just now lightheartedly discussing what the 2015 campaign theme song should be.

  16. LAB extends its lead by 4% with TNS-BMRB. CON 30% (-2), LAB 42% (+2), LD 11% (+1), OTH 17% (-1)

  17. So how are Romney’s Anglo-Saxon values working out amongst the British populace?

    I see today that he offended Cameron by calling the Security issues at the Olympics “not encouraging” and then he began bragging about meeting the head of MI6, this from a guy who attacks Obama for leaking information.

    Any sort of Public Opinion pieces regarding his trip?

  18. @John B Dick

    You’re welcome.

    Regards, Martyn

  19. iananthony james

    “LAB extends its lead by 4% with TNS-BMRB. CON 30% (-2), LAB 42% (+2), LD 11% (+1), OTH 17% (-1)”

    Just to remind those who need reminding of my Yougov prediction for tonight:

    Con 29/30
    Lab 43/44
    LD 10/11

  20. Cameron told Tim Clark, the president of Emirates, that Britain could maintain its status as an aviation hub by providing more officials at passport control at the airport.

    He said: “We have discovered something in the last couple of weeks that business travellers and investors would welcome even more, which is if you really tool up and put the effort in running a good service at Heathrow you can reduce the border queues right down.”
    ————————————–
    Ha! DC has “discovered” that Mark Serwotka & his members are right after all. Now PCS will get everything they asked for but it won’t be the government backing down when faced with Unions, it’ll be them meeting the legitimate concerns of global business leaders or similar narrative.

    Still, whatever it takes. Mark S is interested in his members’ jobs, pay & prospects, not in winning a phoney PR war.

    I, on the other hand, would like the Unions to win the PR battle too. ;-)

  21. @ American Bystander

    Any sort of Public Opinion pieces regarding his trip?
    ———————–
    Some low key fluff about him having a sit down with Tony Blair & a brief, polite press conference with Ed Miliband.

    Ed, I think, gave him a good opportunity to row back on his London Olympic comments & MR called Ed Mr Leader, which kind of threw the London Press until it was explained to them that Mr Leader is quite normal & respectful in US politics.
    i.e. Really ‘low grade’ stuff so far.
    8-)

  22. It’s interesting how Tories tend to get along better with Democrats and Labourites tend to get along better with Republicans. Reagan-Thatcher is the exception ofc.

    Blair is a good example, many Republicans praise Blair, but they seem to forget that he often described himself as a Socialist in the 80’s…

  23. I’m no right winger by any means, especially after recent events, but I do wish the BBC would work a little harder to conceal its bias to the left. Obviously the BBC is all public sector so you’d expect many of the individuals to privately be left wing. As someone who leans more to the left than the right this is fine by me.

    But I really do wish someone would be a little more stringent on double standards.

    When Boris won in London by 3% of Ken it was declared a narrow victory by the BBC, there was talk of Boris “just inching it” However, a few days letter when Mr Hollande beat Sarkozy his 3% win was declared a landslide, and a crushing defeat. Now with Mr Romney (someone I could never see myself ever supporting) visiting the UK, all I keep hearing on the BBC News is that he commented on the problems of the Olympics when he asked (was he supposed to ignore the question) declaring it as some sort of gaffe and I keep hearing talk of how he’s “trailing” behind Obama by 2 points in the polls, and how things are looking bleak for him.

    Now I hoped Hollande would win in France, and I hope Obama wins in the US in November, but can’t really see how the BBC thinks a 3% gap is narrow, but a 2% gap is something of a landslide.

  24. @Anmary “However, a few days letter when Mr Hollande beat Sarkozy his 3% win was declared a landslide, and a crushing defeat.”

    Citation needed!

  25. @anmary

    To give you proper American perspective, I fear greatly the possibility of Romney somehow winning. If it were pretty certain Obama would win, I wouldn’t be as nervous, can you imagine Romney in the backside of the White House?

  26. @Americanbystander

    I’m afraid that comment doesn’t address my point, as I said I don’t want Romney to win in the US. I see myself as being fairly centrist maybe a little to the left, but can sometimes stomach the odd British Conservative, but Romney is just far too right wing for me to ever entertain the idea of supporting someone like him.

    BUT, while I may have that opinion, and BBC staff most likely share that opinion, the BBC is supposed to be impartial on matters political. I have a son living in Virginia, and he is supporting Obama again and even helps with the Obama Campaign, but he tells me it’s going to be very close, and he takes me through it all.

    However to watch the BBC coverage you’d be forgiven for thinking the election was over before it began and there was no way Obama could lose. While I’d like that to be true, I do think it’s quite far from the truth.

  27. What I mean is that Romney can very easily win, and that I’m fearing it. So yes the BBC is wrong, Romney is the worst candidate in a long time, but Obama is that hated where Romney is seen as a viable replacement. I had a polisci graduate instructor who predicted Romney would win the election well before the Iowa Caucuses, if that means anything.

    Sorry for the confusion.

  28. Anmary – doesn’t the fact that people on the left (like me) complain the BBC is too right-wing and people on the right (like you) complain it is too left-wing mean that it is quite balanced overall?

    Is the BBC not one of the finest British things ever in the world? I think it is.

    My Sky TV subscription has just increased by £2.50 a month i.e. £30 per year. Can you imagine the outcry if the licence fee increased by £30 or even the minimum Sky increase of £18?

    And where does all that money go? Into the Murdochs’ pockets.

    One may argue that the difference is that I choose Sky to watch TV but I am forced to pay the licence fee. I think that some things we are forced to do are still good for us.

    Very soon Rupert Murdoch is going to find me not choosing his absurdly expensive satellite subscription. After the Ryder Cup, I am quitting.

  29. Boris just told Romney what’s what, in Hyde Park.

    Working the crowd with his usual deft touch :-)

  30. Nice put down by DC too :-

    ““”We are holding an Olympic Games in one of the busiest, most active, bustling cities anywhere in the world.
    “Of course it’s easier if you hold an Olympic games in the middle of nowhere.”

    …Salt Lake City ? which Romney had something to do with.

  31. @COLIN
    `Working the crowd with his usual deft touch`

    Boris is the rock star of British politics!

  32. @COLIN

    Slightly non-PC but Romney`s comments are overblown and taken out of context.

  33. IAN ANTHONY WALES and NICK P.

    Are the Lib Dem figures very high on these polls?

  34. Was anyone else as disconcerted as I was with this Romney Miliband love-in today?

    lol

    @AnnMary

    The difference in interpretation of the Johnson v Livingstone contest and the Hollande v Sarkozy race might well have had something to do with the numerical weight of votes rather than the percentage gap between the candidates. On a 36% turn-out, Johnson won the Mayoral race by 62,000 votes. Hollande, on a 82% turnout, won the French Presidential election by 1,160,000 votes. Narrow, but decisive and not an atypical margin in a two horse race.

    By the way, where on earth did you hear anyone saying that Hollande won by a landslide?

  35. IAJ
    @”And where does all that money go? Into the Murdochs’ pockets.”

    …was going to say “ermm”-just stopped myself :-)

    Actually-85% of it goes to pay operating costs, leaving a profit which is shared between the tax man & the shareholders……..39% of the latter being NewsCorp.

    The rest include Insurance Companies & Pension Funds.

  36. CROSSBAT

    @”Was anyone else as disconcerted as I was with this Romney Miliband love-in today?”

    …………….funny you should say that :-)

    Is “lol” as condescending as ” erm”-these things get very difficult.

  37. Amber Star

    “Cameron …. said: “We have discovered something in the last couple of weeks…”

    Do you doubt it? It has the ring of truth to me.

    Anmary @Americanbystander

    “I see myself as being fairly centrist maybe a little to the left, but can sometimes stomach the odd British Conservative … ”

    It’s the odd ones that bother me. We have at least two in the Scottish Parliament that seem quite normal decent people.

  38. SMUKESH

    @”Boris is the rock star of British politics!”

    He sure is :-)

  39. @Crossbat

    I’m sure it has less to do with Romney and Miliband issue-wise and more to do with how they relate to each other in how they communicate…

  40. @Ian

    “people on the right (like you) ”

    Clearly you did not read the entirety of my post. If you had, you may well have read me clearly saying I’m not right wing that I try to be in the center but do actually lean to the left and supported both Mr Hollande and Mr Obama. Over my lifetime, I’ve voted for Labour much more often than Conservative, I’d predict the margin to be “at least” 2 to 1. But I don’t let that left wing tilt control my views, if I see something I think unfair I won’t have any hesitation in doing so, because unlike many on this site, I never have been gripped, or even tempted by the tribal side of politics. Just because I feel the BBC is a bit biased to left doesn’t mean I’m a right winger. If Colin agrees that Murdoch and his companies by extension are in favour of the Conservatives, do we now declare Colin as left wing?

  41. @AMERICANBYSTANDER

    It has a lot to do with issues…Romney is known for his asset-stripping predatory capitalism that sort that Miliband opposes dearly with his Responsible Capitalism agenda.

  42. Miliband/Romney “love-in”

    Blimey! Another one!! How far did they go?

    [Or do you just mean they talked to each other?]

  43. @Colin

    “Is “lol” as condescending as ” erm”-these things get very difficult.”

    Erm….let me think about that.

    lol

  44. CROSSBAT

    welllllll…………….umm…………..OK then.

  45. @Paul C

    I was being a shade ironic with the use of “love-in”.

    I think the definition of “love-in”, in some peoples eyes anyway, appears to be meeting or conversation between two people you don’t like. [Snip]

  46. crossbat11

    Disappointing.

  47. Bit shocked to see ole Bellamy booked – last player you’d expect.

  48. Apparently the political editor of the Daily Mail is doing a hatchet job of Romney on Twitter.

    Clever front pages tomorrow I hope, surely they can move the Olympics to the side… :)

  49. Anmary

    I suspect the BBC’s problem isn’t so much to do with being ‘left-wing’ as to do with conventional thinking. So Boris was expected to win with a bigger margin of about 6 points, so 3 was seen as being closer than expected. Similarly Hollande win was more a reflection of coming first in the first round – after that he was seen as a shoo-in.

    You’ve got to remember that the political media live in a small world and one you have to fit in with. It doesn’t matter if you are wrong, providing you are wrong in the same ways as everyone else. It’s not ‘left’ – indeed economically it continues to parrot all the right-wing free market dogma that has been shown up as nonsense over the last five years, but it is deeply conformist.

  50. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 26th July CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 9%, UKIP 8%; APP -35

    Clearly an outlier

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