Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%, remaining steadily within the margin of error of the 9-10 point Labour leads that YouGov have now been showing for a good month. We are now on the verge of the Summer silly season when political news largely stops. This week, of course, we have the latest news of charges from the phone hacking investigation but come Friday the news agenda will be dominated by the Olympics for weeks and I would expect political activity to ground to a halt.

That said, I remember saying pretty much the same thing a year ago before the riots broke out, so no doubt now I have typed this events will again conspire to prove me wrong!


62 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 44, LD 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. Calling this the “worst double-dip recession on record” doesn’t actually tell us that much. It looks like the economic shrinkage now is somewhere between partly and mainly down to the cuts, but the cuts in turn came about from the (correct, IMHO) decision not keep spending during the 2008-9 recession. Therefore, what we have now is, to some extent, the bits of the 2008-9 recession we managed to postpone catching up on us.

    However, today’s figures have convinced me it’s time to rethink the current pace of cuts. If Osborne and co are worried about a U-turn, I suggest a good face-saving excuse is that the low interest rates the UK now pays for bonds allows the Government to relax the pace of cuts in a way it wasn’t able to do in 2010. No idea whether that excuse will stand up to scrutiny, but I don’t think anyone will stay awake that long.

  2. I missed RM’s comment which dealt with the point i made to SD, sorry.

  3. Barnaby: Its a Pearl.

    Josb B D: Gosh! Why’s that? Have you got a spare wooden one? I played for 30 + years but gradually specialised in classical guitar. Wanted one now just for for the solo baroque repertoire.

    Right – back to politics. Why do people call a perfectly ordinary meeting between two polital figures a “love-in”? I assume its to indicate contempt but its rather silly to put it at its politest.

  4. PC
    Yes but throw in that the other leader was from the EU or worse still, France, and jingoism rules OK.

  5. I’ve done some further research and am now happy that my euros are very safe where they are and are a good long term investment.

    Personal financial decisions should never be influenced by politics or opinion polls, which is why Mr Carr has behaved so stupidly and why moralising on such decisions comes over as pathetic.

  6. Howard – “I had not realised they made such little difference to the LD VI for which previously i thought it was chiefly responsible for that VI being above YouGov’s by 4% or more (???).”

    Varies from month-to-month. In June & July the topline adjustment only made 1 point difference to the Lib Dems, in May & April it made 3 points difference.

  7. @Howard

    You said “…I’ve done some further research and am now happy that my euros are very safe where they are and are a good long term investment…”

    OK, but as I pointed out, the ECB are going to try to crash the Euro in the latest “Hail Mary” pass. If they do, the value of your existing Euros in GBP will fall, not rise.

    Regards, Martyn

  8. PAUL CROFT

    @” Why do people call a perfectly ordinary meeting between two polital figures a “love-in”? I assume its to indicate contempt but its rather silly to put it at its politest.”

    I think you mean “Colin” rather than “people”?

    Don’t be coy :-)

    Contempt?-…no.

    Disdain -or something in that area.

    Actually Hollande breached protocol to make his silly little point-civil servants aghast apparently.

    Made Ed happy though-obviously.

  9. MARTYN.
    Good Afternoon.

    What, please, is a HAIL MARY pass?

    ROFL.

    That prayer is about the Virgin’s Divine Conception, by the way, which most people wrongly think is something to do with the Immaculate Conception, which is something else, lol.

    But we used to say, perhaps in the Euro crisis context it might be relevant: Ask the difficult of God, and the impossible of His Mother.

  10. ChrisLane – it’s a pass where you lob it and pray!

    From American Football I believe, it refers to desperately lobbing the ball at the very last second before the game ends in the vain hope it may miraculously score. Originally coined at Notre Dame University, hence the Roman Catholic term of reference.

  11. @Colin
    …and what silly little point was Cameron making when he snubbed Hollande, but has invited Romney over? You can’t have it both ways.

  12. CRAIG

    No -I agree-I can’t.

    I was just having a laugh with Paul Croft, who got a biy upset by my phrase “love in”.

    I should probably have used a different description-

    ” Deliberately overt demonstration of friendship , in order to make a specific political point”

    …..a bit more catchy :-)

    Actually I have just been listening to a fascinating discussion on Randall about the comparative state of the auto industry in UK & France.

    It is going to be very interesting to watch EM’s new mate put his back to the 70s policies into action as Peugot disappears under the weight of political interference , high employment taxes, and shrinking markets-as UK’s auto industry goes from strength to strength.

    Actually, it is already becoming painfully clear that Ed’s new friend is all talk & no trousers :-

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/07/25/uk-france-auto-idUKLNE86O01Y20120725

    There’s a surprise :-)

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