Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. Tonight Lord Ashcroft has also released a new batch of polling – I haven’t looked through it in detail yet myself, but you can read it yourself here.

57 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 42, LD 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. According to Ashcroft , the “critical path” for Cons to retrieve defectors to UKIP is :-

    Improve DC’s “performance”

    Distance themselves from LibDems

    Keep reinforcing their belief that ” Labour is not
    competent and capable”

    in that order

    Project Blueprint.
    Phase 3

    4% pts of VI is at stake

    All three should be possible in time for a 2015 GE.

  2. On Valence:

    Framing polling questions isn’t as easy as you think.

    Should we get more tax off the very rich? – Yes! That’s only fair.

    … andg give it to the poor? – Why should we do that?

    Haven’t we still got a deficit, a need to lend to SME’s, infrastructure projects worthwhile in themselves, which would also create jobs, and a thousand other things.

    Yet it is only the choice of taking it from (implicitly) the undeserving rich to give it to the undeserving poor that is offered.


    I can’t be an Ashcroft “considerer” since I voted Con in 2010.

    Of his four category definitions I can only be a Loyalist or a Defector.

    In both cases I could put myself in one of the “minor” boxes on P 11 & 17.

    I see the reforms which this administrations needs to implement as a two term task, so there is a bias in my answer to a question about my VI “tomorrow” , which might not be present after a second term.

    In Ashcroft terms I think I am a Loyalist with conditions attached-or a potential Defector at some future point to “oh sod the lot of them then”

  4. @ Stuart Dickson

    What package of “wallet” policies can Johann Lamont and her team manage to come up with before the next Scottish GE in May 2016. The first GE post-independence (maybe).
    I’ll skip to part 2 of the question before dealing with part 1.

    A post-independence Scottish GE would be very different to anything which has gone before &, quite frankly, I doubt that the SNP would have much chance of winning. Scots, for the most part, are pragmatic.

    To cut a long story short: Labour would win in a landslide. If you accept that’s very likely, no need to read on! Because I am just going to expand on that theme.

    The SNP could say what they liked about ex-Westminster MPs having a new-found interet in Scotland, that’s exactly what could happen. So, the SNP, with only experience of ‘local’ politics would be up against Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander – IMO, it’s not a coincidence that Jim Murphy has Defence & Douglas Alexander the FO brief: areas in which the SNP have no experience. And obviously Brown & Darling are massively more experienced in finance & Brown in foreign policy than the SNP team.

  5. @ Stuart Dickson

    What package of “wallet” policies can Johann Lamont and her team manage to come up with before the next Scottish GE in May 2016. The first GE post-independence (maybe).
    Now for the 1st part of your question.

    Neither Party is going to be able to offer ‘wallet’ policies at the next election because the public sector cuts are going to have a big impact in Scotland over the next few years. It will become increasingly difficult for them to maintain their existing ‘wallet’ policies & the SNP will have a difficult job defending the cuts they’ll have to make.

    Their first instinct will be to blame it all on Westminster but blaming everything on Westmister is losing its appeal to all but hardened SNP supporters. And the independence campaign has been a revelation. In an independent Scotland the SNP would work with any number of ‘Westminster’ departments & take instructions from them regarding fiscal & PSB policies, defence, alignment on foreign policy if we want to share embassies, consulates etc. The list just goes on & on.

    So, the SNP will not have an easy time in 2016 regardless of how the 2014 referendum goes – if it actually goes ahead!

  6. Looking at Ashcroft’s article would I be considered a defector? I’ve voted for a variety of different parties throughout my life, Labour, Conservative, Green, Liberal, even a few fringe socialist ones and of course independents. I voted Conservative in 2010 but have been left aghast by the performance of this coalition, and although I’m not willing to say yet that I will be voting for Labour in 2015, I can say (barring a miracle), I won’t be voting for either of the coalition parties.

    If I am the sort of voter that the Conservatives need to win over for a majority, a “defector” then things are worse for the Conservatives then I thought. I see the pro’s and cons of all parties, but for the first 2 years of this parliament I feel all I’ve seen is the cons, there’s not been very much positive to say at all. Going back to my teaching days, when we were writing school reports, whenever we made a criticism we were often encouraged to try and find a balance, make the criticism by all means, but try and sandwich it between positive aspects of the child’s performance as well. If I was writing a school report for the coalition, I’d find that very hard to do.

  7. Anthony:
    Privatisation (which includes the NHS and Schools policy) is different from the three”Nationalist” issues listed are a matter best understood in terms of of Social Dominance Orientation, but privatisation is eiher a pragmatic solution (if it works) or the application of fundamentalist dogma (if it doesn’t).

    Small parties of the Left use elections to evangelise and are spectacularly unsuccessful. The electorate seems to take a caveat emptor attitude to the evangelical approach. If Conservatives left off the preaching of economic theory they could attract Right Wing Authoritarian followers (in the psychologial sense) from the Left party. They would lose the Christian Democrats and One Nation Conservatives.

    They would be UKIP

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