Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Evening Standard has now been released on the MORI website. Topline voting intention is CON 31%(nc), LAB 44%(+4), LDEM 12%(+2), Others 13%(-6).

The thirteen point Labour lead is the highest MORI have shown since the election, though all the usual caveats apply about taking an individual poll out of context. The broad trend across all the polls suggests Labour’s lead has been pretty steady since May, with hints of a slight Conservative recovery in the YouGov daily tracker.

Looking at the detailed figures the reason for the increase in Labour’s lead is quite unusual. As regular readers will know, MORI has quite a tight filter by likelihood to vote – they only include responses from people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote in a general election tomorrow. Normally this tight filter increases their reported level of Conservative support, but in this month’s poll it did the opposite – the unfiltered figures had a nine point Labour lead, but Labour voters told MORI they were more certain to vote, so the topline figures ended up with a thirteen point Labour lead. If sustained this would be an interesting development of course, but looking at the recent results from other companies that ask likelihood to vote we find the normal pattern of Conservative voters being more likely (ICM, Populus) or equally likely (ComRes) as Labour supporters say they are to vote.

Meanwhile, yesterday’s daily YouGov poll had figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7% – in line with the average Labour lead of 9-10 points that they have been showing lately.


49 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 31, LAB 44, LD 12”

  1. I sense that people are increasingly getting fed up of the government and some of the swing voters have firmed up for Labour.

    When nothing seems to go right for a government and people don’t see any change in sight, then they will change VI. Whether this will remain the case, will mainly depend on one issue, the economy. If the economy is not in better shape by the time of the GE, I cannot see the Tories having a chance of winning with a majority.

  2. @R Huckle

    I don’t see the Tories of having any chance of winning with a majority at all anyway. ConservativeHome is today reporting (accurately, I believe) that the Conservatives will need a lead of 7.6% to win, and that’s with boundary changes.

    Considering at the last election, with a global downturn, 13 years of Labour government, an uncharismatic and heavily unpopular Prime Minister deemed by the public to fail the Conservatives only won by 7.1%, a majority really isn’t happening. Labour are around 9% ahead in the polls. Anybody really see a 16% swing coming for this government in the next year or two?

    And that’s all provided boundary reforms do go through – what with the House of Lords reforms being essentially rejected by Conservatives (and apparently talks with backbenchers are going nowhere soon), it could be that the next election is fought under current boundaries – requiring a 10.5% Tory lead for a majority. This would require the biggest vote swing towards a sitting Prime Minister in modern history. Considering even Thatcher and Blair didn’t even increase their vote, I really don’t see Cameron achieving this!

  3. Also important to note on MORIs net leadership ratings;

    DC: -27%
    EdM: -18%
    NC: -38%

    I suspect outlier because that looks very high for NC and EdM.

  4. There have been two announcements by the government on infrastructure spending and the underpinning of large loans for other projects. Both involve these having an actual effect in 2014. Given this it seems the Conservatives may be planning on a timed recovery with better news throughout 2014 in preparation for the election. So the polls for now and in the next period are reflecting the situation as it stands but moves are already afoot it seems to try for a better response from 2014 onwards.

  5. HARRY THOMPSON

    @”Anybody really see a 16% swing coming for this government in the next year or two?”

    THey don’t need a 16% swing.

    To convert 34/43 to 42/35 requires an 8% swing from Lab to Con-and disregards the effects of any swing to Cons from other parties

  6. London, SE and E England have been reporting strong growth for over two years now, and were still 1.9-2.7% in the last Q. I also recently read that London has moved further ahead of NY et al as the world’s primary financial centre.

    If the coalition publicised these figures, instead of concentrating solely on UK-wide figures, there might be a change of opinion over the Govt’s economic strategy and a twitch in VI.

  7. …and might even promote some confidence in the economy as a whole!

  8. If you conclude, fairly reasonably, that the Conservatives can’t possibly win with Labour polling anything like the figures that they are now regularly recording in all the polls, then the really intriguing question is this. What developments, or set of circumstances, are likely to take place between now and May 2015 which will persuade 8-10% of those saying they will vote Labour now to change their minds and vote Conservative at a General Election? Make no mistake about it, for the Tories to win, they have to persuade a good chunk of the current Labour support to go over to them. They have to find a way of pushing Labour down to the low 30s over the next 34 months and hope that most of the haemorrhage comes their way.

    Unless of course, the Labour haemorrhage flows towards the Lib Dems and, as in the past, the Tories ld sneak a working majority on the basis of a split centre left, anti -Tory vote. However, as I said before, how likely is that to happen now that the Lib Dems are part of the incumbent government with their fingerprints all over the gathering crime scenes?

    Now, if Miliband and Labour could provide something more than a mere repository for temporary anti-incumbent votes, then they may be home and dry.

  9. Using the swing calculator for the provisional changes: CON would only need a 4% lead in order to get an overall majority.

    Assuming now 9% behind, that means they need a 6.5% swing to win that election.

    I’d say that was achievable.

    Just.

  10. Steve

    London, SE and E England have been reporting strong growth for over two years now, and were still 1.9-2.7% in the last Q. I also recently read that London has moved further ahead of NY et al as the world’s primary financial centre.

    If the coalition publicised these figures, instead of concentrating solely on UK-wide figures, there might be a change of opinion over the Govt’s economic strategy and a twitch in VI.

    —-

    That’s a bit like saying Fog in the channel, Europe cut off.

    If they really want to be cheery, they could just report on the figures for Belgravia.

    Average house price: now 15,250,000
    Average income: much the same
    All population have private healthcare and a yacht.

    Of course if they did try and pass that off as UK figures – in order to achieve that poll boost – they might just get lynched.

  11. I think the best the Tories can hope for is to get close to 40 and get Lab below 40. Probably doable with luck and economic support.

    40/38/15 would give the Tories something very close to enough seats (but not quite a majority). governing would be a nightmare.

    Most likely outcome?

    Something like today’s Ipso/Mori…if the Tories are lucky and don’t collapse entirely.

  12. CROSSBAT11

    @”What developments, or set of circumstances, are likely to take place between now and May 2015 which will persuade 8-10% of those saying they will vote Labour now to change their minds and vote Conservative at a General Election? ”

    IF 3% pts of the current UKIP 7% goes back to Cons, then a 6% to 7% swing would produce that 7% lead…………….and -say 37/43/8/4.

    IF Labour fail to retain all the 40% ish of the LD 2010 vote which they currently have, that moves the goal posts again………lets say to 37/39/12/4……..

    Which AW’s swingometer gives as Lab Maj. 20 on existing boundaries………….and Hung/Lab 6 short on Provisional boundaries.

    ……and that’s without Cons really trying -and the “developments” about which you ask :-) :-) :-)

  13. This poll looks a little too good for Labour and is out of line with the others we have, even when accounting for AW’s description of the reason why.

    The debate above and on the previous thread gets to the heart of the ‘what if’s’. It’s clear that we didn’t have the lift off for the economy that the Tories were expecting at the time of the election, with a recession instead.

    As a couple of posters mention, there is still time for infrastructure boosts to the economy in time for 2015, but set this against the fact that we’ve witnessed a big infrastructure boost already for the Olympics and one wonders whether this would feel like an extra or just replace other projects closing down.

    At some stage the economy will grow, but that isn’t necessarily the point at which people begin to feel like things are getting better. I’ve posted already my fears that we still have two more quarters of recession to go, and this means there really isn’t much time to generate the sense of positive mood the coalition will need by 2015.

    Indeed, events in China and the US don’t look at all good at present, and the more positive forecasters are all assuming the EZ ‘sorts itself out’, whatever that means. As the German constitutional court isn’t due to rule on the last bail out until September, I think that relying on anything good coming from this quarter is a very perilous strategy.

  14. Apparently Lord Green, Government Minister for Industry and “adviser on banls” was CEO and Chair for HSBC as they laundered all that money.

    Ho hum. All these things feed into the narrative.

  15. Telegraph says that Green:

    “…is also an ordained priest in the Church of England and author of Good Value: Reflections on Money, Morality and an Uncertain World. “

  16. Judge led inquiry?

  17. One thought on the economy and 2015; Syria is descending into full on civil war, which will create huge tensions around the whole issue of Iran, one of Assad’s key backers.

    meanwhile, even the UK security forces are saying that Iran is a couple of years only way from becoming a nuclear state and the window to stop this is closing fast. This is something that it’s very hard to see Israel accepting, and armed intervention of some kind looks increasingly likely – even with talk of US and UK involvement in some quarters.

    This would be one of those events that sends oil prices skywards, knocking lumps out of any fragile recovery, but underneath all the bluster, it does look like the day is coming closer and closer.

  18. I love your posts Alec-your constant search for things which will blow Cameron & Osborne away.

    But invoking WW111 , and concentrating on it’s effect on UK’s economy is like warning that sea level rise will mean less beaches to play on.

  19. NICKP

    I understand Green had been mentioned as a candidate for Governor of BoE !

    The way things are going, there won’t be any such candidates outside of the Bishopry………..and even they can be a bit dodgy.

    Why on earth is it always the Yanks who find these things-what were our so-called regulators actually doing?

  20. “Also important to note on MORIs net leadership ratings;
    DC: -27%
    EdM: -18%
    NC: -38%
    I suspect outlier because that looks very high for NC and EdM.”
    Err.. Not for MORI.
    EdM
    June -13, May -16, April -18, March -18, Feb -25, Jan -26
    Perfectly normal for Miliband since the omnishambles.
    NC
    June -37, May -39, April -31, March -27, Feb -32, Jan -23
    Perfectly normal for Clegg

  21. @Nick P and others.

    I remain confident that the Tories will win a working majority in 2015.

  22. The Other Howard

    Fair enough.

  23. Sewotka to announce details of the Home Office staff strike, tomorrow.

    Hope he targets the Olympics.

  24. Regarding Labour certainty to vote numbers, I’d be interested if there’s a big uptick in the North (if certainty can be seen by region). It’s a hunch but I think there were a lot of Labour voters in the North who were very pleased to see Ed M at the ‘Big Meeting’ – Durham Miners Gala Day.

    It may have had a slightly wider impact because it was well covered in the media.

    Okay, so this may mean that Labour are piling up votes where they’re not ‘needed’ but we’ll be happy to have them all the same.
    8-)

  25. @ Colin

    Hope he [Mark Serwotka] targets the Olympics [for strikes].
    ———————–

    Why would you hope for that, Colin?

  26. Colin
    Not news – Ed’s approval figures have been dire for a long time.
    But as Tim notes – he doesn’t need to win over the Tory-Lab swing voters to win the next election, he only needs to hold on to the ex-Lib voters.

    The question of whether he’s a drag on Labour VI is an entirely different question – I suspect not so much.
    If there were another centre-left party with a charismatic leader, he’d probably be in trouble but as there isn’t (outside of Scotland) I can’t see it making much difference.
    However if that were to happen – if Labour went further right to try to chase Tory voters and Labour splintered, it could be an issue.

  27. Colin
    Or to put it another way – had the LibDems gone in to opposition after the election, with Clegg being more charismatic than Miliband (see Cleggmania), I suspect we’d currently have a three-way split, with LibDems fighting with the Conservatives for highest VI and Labour trailing behind.

  28. TINGED

    Thanks.

    For me the only point of encouragement would be if the DC decline which has brought their numbers closer together, can be reversed.

    AMBER

    Because I think it would not be welcomed by the public at large.
    Because , if that is so, DC will have a reaction , firmly in line with public opinion; and EM might be less categorical.
    Because, if all those things are true, it might improve Cons VI.

  29. TINGED

    Thanks for your further thoughts……….aah those might have beens eh?

    :-)

  30. There are essentially four things that need to happen if the Conservatives are to get a working majority:
    1. Labour loses more than half of the LD defectors it has gained since 2010 and picks up none of the current LD “dont knows”.
    2. UKIP does not benefit in 2015 from a boost to their profile and credibility in the 2014 Euro elections and instead they lose the support they already have picked up post 2010 back to the Conservatives.
    3. Looking purely at direct switches between Con and Lab since 2010, there are more net switchers from Lab to Con than Con to Lab, despite 2010 being a nadir in Labour support to rival only 1983.
    4. The boundary changes go through, without which the demographic trend over five years will tilt FPTP even more towards Labour than was the case in 2010.

    The events are not completely independent of one another. Nonetheless, the chances of all four coming off in unison are poor, and so must be the chance of a Conservative majority.

    But nothing in this world is certain.

  31. Does anyone know if bookmakers are accepting bets on the 2015 election yet??

  32. @Simon
    A better question would be what bets they are not accepting on the 2015 election. Here’s a link to the latest “wisdom of crowds” polling in the political betting world.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election

  33. @Colin

    I too hope that David Cameron/ the Tory’s electability relies on Mark Serwotka because I doubt he’ll be inclined to deliver DC’s ‘Thatcher moment’.

    The thing about ‘standing tough’, is you have to be able to actually be tough or it’s nothing but empty rhetoric. The police & the army are almost fully extended sweeping up G4S’s, mess so who, pray, is going to actually enforce DC’s tough talk?

    And given the police & army they aren’t too happy with the government over cuts & outsourcing, how inclined will they be to play a part in DC’s ‘miners strike moment’?

    You should be careful what you wish for, it doesn’t always turn out as expected.
    8-)

  34. On the MORI poll. The approach of counting the opinions only of those “certain to vote” reduces their effective sample size to only 512 voters. How small does a poll have to be before small sample size starts to become an issue?

  35. @ Colin

    There is, however, some very good news for the government today, which will be welcomed by all Parties:

    The court ruled against a scheme promoted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the accountancy firm, used by a businessman in a bid to avoid about £11m in tax.

    When another 200 taxpayers attempting to use the scheme are taken into account, the total cost in lost tax would have been nearer £100m, experts said. But the court ruling sets a precedent that could mean billions of pounds in potentially avoided tax will instead flow to the public purse.

    “This gives a very clear indication of the way courts are now looking at tax schemes,” said Mike Warburton of Grant Thornton. “The ruling says in effect, ‘we are not going to countenance aggressive tax schemes’. You have to see this as an important victory for the taxman…”

    It seems unlikely that there will be an appeal to the Supreme Court so :-)

  36. @Tinged F
    “Or to put it another way – had the LibDems gone in to opposition after the election, with Clegg being more charismatic than Miliband (see Cleggmania), I suspect we’d currently have a three-way split, with LibDems fighting with the Conservatives for highest VI and Labour trailing behind.”

    That’s a fair point. As evidence to back it up, events in the Irish Republic demonstrate the benefits of playing the long game and staying out of coalition. Just compare the current polling of Sinn Fein and Irish Labour.

  37. @Amber
    “Okay, so this may mean that Labour are piling up votes where they’re not ‘needed’….”

    That’s a myth promoted by those who believe that what was once the core vote doesn’t matter (not you, I believe). Nowadays there are no fewer marginal seats in the North than in the South.

  38. @Big Tim

    I didn’t suggest they should pass London/SE/E growth figures off as ‘UK’ (?!).

    My point is that the Govt needs to show strong growth has long returned to significant parts of the UK. London/SE/E/E Mids (the latter is also seeing strong growth) account for 40% of the UK population and >50% of the economy. Last year, E England alone saw 4.5% growth and all three regions are alongside the likes of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg in the current Euro-growth tables.

    If regional stats like this were publicised, and not just ‘UK’, ‘Scotland’, ‘Wales’ and ‘NI’, then I think there would be a significant realignment of VI.

    Of course, that’s the last thing quite a few contributors on this board would want to see….

  39. The time we get to the next GE is the public will be heartly sick of coalition politics and will be looking for a single party to lead the country. This will result in a drift back of voters to the four main parties, The Tories may lose some of there core support to UKIP maybe visa versa and Labour will lose some of those Liberals who support them now, back to there own party, the core suppport for the two main party’s is roughly the same, so as usual the floating voter will be the king maker.
    Unfortunately this time round the fickle floating voter will be joined by those who have become disencharnted with all politics which will be a larger group than usual this may have a larger effect on Labour than the Tories only time will tell. Despite what we see today in the polls things will be a lot tighter in 2015 its certainly not a done deal as the floating voter is just that and as we saw in the last election with the massive swing to the Liberals mainly based on a couple of television appearances by Glegg that kept the Tories from winning outright, how easy it is to change opinion a usual what happens in the last few months/weeks in the lead up to the GE will count most for all parties not particularly whats happened this year or next come to that.

  40. Good Evening All, school hols have come.

    I agree with all those people here who say that the gE is too close to call for 2015.

    For the first time I am now inclined to think that poll figures seem to be exaggerating the Lib Dem numbers? Does anyone else think that.

    ED M seems to be growing in stature.

    Quite good figures on jobs today.

  41. AMBER

    Thanks.

    Yes that is good news.

    I have been staggered to read of the numbers of staff using the Service Company approach in the BBC.

    re Sewotka-I doubt he would be as foolish as to target the Olympics anyway.

  42. Ooups, 31% again – that’s two in a row – a five year low on the IpsosMORI certain-to-vote measure.

    Last time Labour hit 44% by that measure was in January 2003:
    Con 27%, Lab 44%, LD 20%, SNP/PC 4%, Grn 2%, Dem/UKIP/Ref 1%.

    Comparing the IpsosMORI achives – all respondents:

    h
    ttp://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=103

    with absolutely-certain-to-vote:

    h
    ttp://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=107&view=wide

    from November 2002 onwards…

    There have been some very, very dramatic adjustments in favour of the Conservatives on this 10/10 absolute certainty measure while they were in opposition… these adjustments (%) brought the Con vote into alignment with the actual 2005 (+7%) and 2010 (+3%) GE results – Lab was still being underadjusted for in 2005 (-3%, instead of -5%), but was dead-on in 2010 (-3%)

    The +Con, -Lab adjustments do seem to have been scaling back somewhat since Con and Lab have reversed their opp/govt relation. It will be interesting to see if there are more instances of Labour being favoured by this criterion.

  43. @[Colin]

    “So what do you think Lefty contributors (of Tim Montgomerie’s wholly objective interpretation of Miliband’s personal ratings)? :-

    Wishful thinking? Yes
    Wrong conclusion? Yes
    Something in it? No

    lol

  44. I know. New thread. One comment: this is a 9 pt lead masquerading as a,13 pt lead. The former,is consistent will all current VI polls.

  45. nick p
    Thanks for the explanation of Lord green’s religious and ethical background. I spent an evening with him last week and was hand-on-heart massively impressed.
    tim
    i suspect there is something in what you say. However a further breakdown to districts rather than regions might give an explanation for current vi. D Carswell has interesting statistics on his blog. Even in the regions doing well there are areas suffering. While my local authority is I am confident doing as well as anywhere in germany. I only claim some of the credit!
    chris lane
    Lib Dems? A look at the Scottish electoral calculus will prove restorative to you. Also a valuable corrective to those furth of Scotland who feel our Ed need fear an alternative “left” party with a “charismatic” leader.

  46. barney

    Pity he ran such a disgraceful bank.

  47. Okay, so I’m going to come out and say it. This has got to be one of the craziest political stories I have ever seen.

    http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/16/egyptians-who-jeered-clinton-cite-american-conservatives-to-argue-u-s-secretly-supports-islamists/

    You seriously can’t make this sh*t up.

    It’s amazing to me that this is the woman who foreign intellectuals (at least those in Egypt) take as a serious and leading authority on U.S. foreign policy:

    h ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DAFSuBhhvc

    I think that’s what I like about Brits so much. You guys never take what any American says at face value. Intellectuals from every other country on the planet(often anti-American) seem to do that. :)

  48. STEVE
    ‘If regional stats like this were publicised, and not just ‘UK’, ‘Scotland’, ‘Wales’ and ‘NI’, then I think there would be a significant realignment of VI.’

    I think people are more concerned (and convinced) by their own personal economic experiences rather than some cooked ‘stats’ plucked from somewhere to be honest.

    TURK
    ‘The time we get to the next GE is the public will be heartly sick of coalition politics and will be looking for a single party to lead the country.’

    ‘The public’ aren’t some kind of unified entity and don’t coalesce with a single purpose, they are millions of different people with their own independent agendas informed or otherwise and act as such.

    SOCALLIBERAL
    ‘Okay, so I’m going to come out and say it. This has got to be one of the craziest political stories I have ever seen.’

    The US economic/security elite do have form on preferring, and indeed aiding, Islamic fundamentalists when opposed to secular (and therefore potentially ‘socialist’) nationalist movements. I’m sure one or two examples will come to mind if given a thought.