Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Evening Standard has now been released on the MORI website. Topline voting intention is CON 31%(nc), LAB 44%(+4), LDEM 12%(+2), Others 13%(-6).
The thirteen point Labour lead is the highest MORI have shown since the election, though all the usual caveats apply about taking an individual poll out of context. The broad trend across all the polls suggests Labour’s lead has been pretty steady since May, with hints of a slight Conservative recovery in the YouGov daily tracker.
Looking at the detailed figures the reason for the increase in Labour’s lead is quite unusual. As regular readers will know, MORI has quite a tight filter by likelihood to vote – they only include responses from people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote in a general election tomorrow. Normally this tight filter increases their reported level of Conservative support, but in this month’s poll it did the opposite – the unfiltered figures had a nine point Labour lead, but Labour voters told MORI they were more certain to vote, so the topline figures ended up with a thirteen point Labour lead. If sustained this would be an interesting development of course, but looking at the recent results from other companies that ask likelihood to vote we find the normal pattern of Conservative voters being more likely (ICM, Populus) or equally likely (ComRes) as Labour supporters say they are to vote.
Meanwhile, yesterday’s daily YouGov poll had figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7% – in line with the average Labour lead of 9-10 points that they have been showing lately.