There are two new polls tonight. First YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%. Labour’s lead in back in double figures, but well within the normal margin of error of the Labour leads of 9-10 points that YouGov have been showing of late.
Secondly is Populus’s monthly poll for the Times which has topline figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 12%(+3), Others 15%(-2). Changes are from Populus’s last poll a month ago. Populus also asked their tracker questions on party image and questions on the reshuffle that is expected in coming months.
On party image there are some sharp drops for the Conservatives, most noticably in terms of competence and unity. Populus last asked the same questions back in March, around the start of the government’s “omnishambles” period. Back then 46% saw the Conservatives as “competent and capable”, this has now dropped twelve points to 34%, putting them marginally behind Labour. On being united the Conservative drop is even sharper – in March 42% of people saw the Tories as united, that has since dropped fourteen points to 28%.
For the reshuffle, Populus asked if each minister should stay or go. The public’s favourite for the boot was Andrew Lansley, with 53% of people who knew who he was thinking he should go. He was followed by Jeremy Hunt, of whom 48% thought he should go. More surprisingly given the lack of major scandal or hugely unpopular policies, Theresa May came third on 46%, followed by George Osborne on 45%. Much more popular were Ken Clarke (only 36% thought he should go) and William Hague on 20%.