Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. Neatly enough, these are also the average figures for voting intention in YouGov polls this week. As usual I will do a proper post on the Sunday Times results tomorrow once the tables are up.


48 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 43, LD 9, UKIP 7”

  1. first

  2. first (ish)

    There seems to be some trouble with checking for terrorists at Heathrow arrivals. Next part of omnishambles?

    other than that, things seemed to have settled down at a Labour lead almost into double figures. we should await the next media frenzy over whatever bad news in coming next.

  3. Keithp – That seems to be the problem with the coalition, people are not just waiting for the next omnishambles but expecting it. Unless they can somehow turn the tide, this will go on for the foreseeable, and until that happens their job will be to try and keep the Labour lead down to around 10% in the polls. Labour just need to sit and wait for the next mishap to happen.

  4. The House of Lords may light my fire but clearly doesn’t fire the voters – but I suspect its lit a match that will in time set the fire that turns the coalition to ashes….

    As the EU for the conservatives and for many years Public Ownership for Labour this is an issue runs down through the core of LIbDem activists & their sense of being betrayed will fester over time nto something uglier & less forgiving.

    Once politica lions start to speak in terms of betrayal of good faith – as those causalities of Labour’s long internecine wars will confirm – they are unlikely to let matters rest easywith the lambs of pragmatism…..

  5. Keith P
    The position closed mentality could be rectified by people doing some extra work.

    Many people in the private sector will work early or late to get a job done, or where possible, get it done quicker.

  6. According to Financial Times Deutschland (no doubt out of date by now), the following names have been considered for Commission president with a view to the 2014 election:

    European People’s Party: Donald Tusk
    European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party: Guy Verhofstadt
    European Green Party: Daniel Cohn Bendit
    Europe of Freedom and Democracy: Nigel Farage.

    Katianen (National Coalition Party) will be responsible for the decision on Finland’s Commisioner for 2014… possibly Alexander Stubb.

  7. @Joe James B

    Really? I’ve rarely found that someone working for a private business was willing to work past their normal hours to help out a customer. I’ve found that a lot more in public service workers.

    I suspect you’re trying to equate people working on commission, or getting over-time, or being able to bill their hours to someone; against someone who almost always has a fixed salary, works in an office they are ordered not to keep open beyond the ordinary hours, or has to work to a strict time-table set by political policy setters…

  8. @Joe James B

    Also, are you really suggesting that the Fire Services, Police Services, Doctors and Nurses don’t “work early or late to get a job done”?

  9. Jay Blanc

    No – I refer you to what I did say.

  10. People should be prepared to do extra work for a fixed salary (where they reasonably can),
    (not make a normal working day last longer and charge overtime
    like bolshy union officials circa 1979)

    If you think this is a good line of attack
    on the Government
    then this would be my counter argument
    and it will resonate with the real world.

  11. @ Joe James B

    I absolutely agree. If I want something at 2am somebody should drop what she’s doing or leap out of bed & provide me with the service to which I am entitled!

    The customer is King, after all. There should be no whim of mine that should not be serviced by workers at the end of their shift. They should be willing, even eager to miss their bus home, find their dinner ‘in the dog’ & their kids already in bed.

    The public sector panders to their workers by occasionally acknowledging that they have a life outside of work. It’s a national disgrace. The private sector, on the other hand, are amazing. Walk along any high street, at any time of day & all the shops, restaurants & banks are open for business. They know how to look after their customers. In the real world however, atually they’re all shut, closed, done for the day.

    On the other hand, I’ve had the police turn out in dead of night when I heard glass smashing in the street outside, firemen put out a chip pan fire which my son had started within minutes of being called at 4am & the hospital was open at 10pm when I disclocated my shoulder.
    8-)

  12. @Billy Bob

    Useful information thank you. It’s always nice when somebody else does my research for me, so (genuinely) thank you for that.

    Donald Tusk, huh? Has he gotten that fed up with Poland he wants to leave already?

    @Colin

    I’ve answered your question on the previous thread on the previous thread.

    Regards, Martyn

  13. Oh, bottom.. :-(

    @Anthony Wells

    I’ve posted the reply above (@Colin…I wasn’t avoiding the question, I was answering the question I thought you asked…You said (something along the lines of) what…) on the wrong thread. It should have gone on the previous one. If you could be so kind as to delete it, that’d be grand.

    Regards, Martyn

  14. People do put in extra work frequently to get work out to clients.

    Those who close positions when there are customers to be served should offer to do more work where possible – public or private.

    You can’t just blame everything on the government without constantly reviewing ones own services and performance.

    Looks like the polls are starting to look rather like where they were in early 2011.

    Ed Miliband got something of a boost from the phone yacking
    (despite previous Government doing nothing about it in office).

  15. Sanctimonious Ed of course.

  16. It would be very surprising if the LD did not mount a GE campaign that shifted the attention of voters away from their membership and performance in the Coalition and focussed on four factors that they have in their favour: their past electoral resources and database; their performance in local government; some good front benchers; and their traditional virtuous platform of free trade, human rights and constitutional reform. These elements of a campaign will be directed to a voting public in the context of a three party equal debate. It might give them 5 to 10 points above the present VI polling figures; the question is, at what cost to Labour or Conservatives, and where would that occur?

  17. @John Pilgrim

    They can try, of course, but I think there will be some significant issues:
    4) they won’t really have delivered on free trade (it’s a recession), human rights or constitutional reform. HoL reform is either dead, a bad reform, or irrelevant to VI. PR is dead for a generation and was badly handled anyway.
    3) their good front benches haven’t been especially effective
    2) they are losing local councils and Councillors hand over fist. These people simply won’t have the resources to campaign in 2015
    1) past electoral resources and databases go out of date surprisingly quickly
    0) they can’t hide from their track record in coalition

    I think they might perform better than the current polling, but it will be differential turnout that saves them.

  18. JJB: When people discuss the mythical “real” world what they mean [of course] is the bit of the world of which they approve.

  19. Leader ratings –
    Cameron -25 (+2)
    Miliband -21 (+3)
    Clegg -59 (-4)
    Both leader results still within MOE but Miliband still slightly in the lead.

    43% of people would like the coalition to end now (Cons 27%, Libs 13% – warning subsamples) – 60% would like it to end some time before the next general election, 3% beyond the next general election (Cons 5%, Libs 11% – warning subsamples).

    Would vs Wouldn’t make a better leader than Cameron –

    Boris Johnson
    Would – 23
    Wouldn’t – 43
    Net -20

    George Osborne
    Would – 3
    Wouldn’t – 59
    Net -56

    Michael Gove
    Would – 6
    Wouldn’t – 42
    Net -36

    William Hague
    Would – 28
    Wouldn’t – 32
    Net -4

    (The Sun asking out of curiosity or are there rumours of a coup?)

  20. @ Tinged

    Rumours are that Cameron is on the down escalator; Hague is said to be quietly building support for himself. If the coalition falls apart over Lords reform & boundary changes, Cameron will be out the door. Like Maggie, he’ll get to name his successor, provided he picks William Hague. ;-)

  21. @Amber Star

    In support ot of Joe James I can only speak as I find about the Public & Private Sector. Recent experiences make the point. Recently I was half way through a scan when an NHS worker who was assisting walked off saying i am not delaying my lunch! The same day my private cardiologist who i happen to know started work at 7.30 am rang me at 10.15 pm to update me on procedures i had had during the day. What a diffence in approach!!!!

  22. ALEC
    THese are the signs I was refering to on a previous thread :-
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18831660

    h ttp://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/politics/2012/july/cleggs-sensitive-little-violets-get-tough

  23. THE SHEEP
    My expectation is that their track record will be remembered by pollheads and the chattering classes, not in two or three years time by every 2010 LD voter or the undecided – and suddenly with one spring, Jack will be free. A campaign team will crucially include Vince Cable as a credible economic spokesman with a now rediscovered Keynesian strategy for jobs and economic recovery, the one member of the Coalition Cabinet to have his status enhanced by attacking the Murdochs. And we may dislike Shirley for her defection from Labour, but she’s still loved in the High Street and WI.

  24. ……………just switched Sky News on -and Cameron is reported to have “appealed” to Conservatives & LibDems to “unite & put aside their differences”.

    Clearly his Deputy wasn’t informed when he did hid little lefty foot stamp at the SLF annual conference.

    Trouble ahead.

  25. Is it possible that Cameron is looking for a way out of the coalition ?

    Many Tories and Lib Dem would like to see an end to a coalition, that may not be in the countries interests. From a Tory perspective, they are not able to put forward legislation that the whole parliamentary party is in favour of and they have a problem with some Lib Dem ministers. e.g Vince Cable who they don’t think is up to the job.

    I see that the latest polling reveals that slightly more Tories and Lib Dem voters would like the coalition to end now, but most predict that it will last to the GE. I suppose the Lib Dems will hang on whatever the Tories do, as they have to be seen to try their hardest in making coalition government work. But in reality I think this is actually not in their interest, as a third party needs to be shown to be different to the two main parties. They won’t be able to do this, if they are shackled to the Tories until the GE.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ml8va11ni4/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-13-150712.pdf

  26. @TOH

    In my experience,workers in the NHS tend to extend their working hours on the basis of clinical need,not on the basis of health anxieties of patients.

    You have perhaps got better service in this instance from the private sector…But if you ask him,you`ll find that his wages in the private sector would dwarf his wages in the NHS.Also is it not better he ring you at normal working hours for routine information,rather than that late a hour?

  27. Can Theresa May hold on to her job and retain the support of voters ?

    Not looking good.. If there is a poll soon on performance of ministers, I think the Olympic security issue will hurt her ratings ?

    In hindsight, I think the government should have appointed an Olympic security minister and held regular COBRA meetings to discuss arrangements.

  28. @TINGED FRINGE
    `43% of people would like the coalition to end now`

    But that`s due to a predominance of Labour voters.Amongst Tory and Lib Dem voters,there is most support for coalition continuing till 2015.(35-C/12-L/41-LD)

    Only 6%of Lib Dems think they have too much power vs 55 who think they have too little power.

    Almost half the voters want Osborne to apologise to Balls(49vs30).

  29. @JoeJames:

    On behalf of NHS staff, we actually have to work longer hours than we’re paid for and stay based on clinical need, rather than shift hours, far longer than is necessary.

    Under the ETWD we’re limited to how many hours we can work a week (48), however, in order to see all our patients and complete even the bare minimum amount of work a Doctor has to do we have to do work unpaid and unofficially, because otherwise there would be disastrous effects on patients and patient care.

    Public NHS staff work far beyond their remit, they just don’t tell you when they’re sorting out your broken arm “my shift actually finished five hours ago”.

    TheOtherHoward:

    Sorry about your experience, that was unprofessional and if they had been caught at the very least they would receive a b*llocking. Most of us are nicer, I promise.

  30. “Looks like the polls are starting to look rather like where they were in early 2011.”
    Throughout early 2011, there was only a short period of time (late feb-early march) that Cons were consistently on 35 or below.
    In Oct 2011, YouGov changed their weightings to become more accurate – that knocked roughly 0.8% (or rounded, 1%) off Labour’s VI.

    That would mean that Labour are consistently doing slightly better now than 2011.

    That doesn’t mean that Cons aren’t back on the rise and Labour’s dropping – only that the Cons were doing consistently better during early 2011 and Labour doing consistently slightly worse.
    Except for the Veto-Bounce period, Labour has had pretty stable VI figures – the fall in Con VI since the omnishambles hasn’t really gone Labour’s way though, so a return to the Con stability of 37/38 shouldn’t really hurt Labour’s VI.

    Amber, JJB, TOH,
    Isn’t it amazing when people who’re ideologically biased against the public sector see the public sector as doubleplusbad and the private sector as doubleplusgood – but those who’re ideologically biased toward the public sector see the public sector as doubleplusgood and the private sector as doubleplusbad?
    And only they live in the ‘real world’ – and this real world doesn’t exist within an ideological construct itself.

    Of course – a divide and conquer technique (public sector voter vs private sector voter) may be a valid tool for trying to win the next election but it does have it’s flaws.
    Due to increased public sector employment the further north you go, you risk it becoming a strategy to only win voters in the south – something that makes the FPTP regional problem worse,
    Part of the reason the Conservatives lost in 2010, while Labour won in 2005 (on a smaller share of the vote) is that Labour’s vote is more even distributed whereas the Conservative vote is more concentrated in the south (and is virtually locked out in Scotland).
    Everywhere North of the Midlands voted Labour over the Conservatives in 2010, despite Labour’s historically national low polling position.

  31. @TingedFringe

    Re your middle doublepluscomment: That is why Labour needs to tread the path of saying that neither public nor private sector are inherently good or bad in themselves. Difficult, because of your doubleplus positions. In practice I have seen the worst public sector excesses mirrored in the private sector, and vice versa.

  32. R HUCKLE

    @”Is it possible that Cameron is looking for a way out of the coalition ?”

    No-at least not on the basis of his article in today’s ST.

    He is clinging tightly to the wreckage.

  33. “and this real world doesn’t exist within an ideological construct itself.”
    Perhaps I should clarify to be clearer – the first time I used ideological (of private vs public), I meant it in the personal-ideology sense.
    When I used ‘ideological construct’ I meant it in the collective national/regional/local-ideology sense.

    That the ‘real world’ which people collectively exist in only exists because they believe in it (i.e it’s pure ideology). Personal property, for example, is an ideological construct that is very strong as a collective belief so defence of private property is likely to resonate nationally.

    This collective ideology will vary from place to place – so the meme of ‘public sector works are lazy’ will generally only exist where a) the collective ideology is against the public sector or b) where there are actually lazy public sector workers.

    It’s unlikely that the whole public sector collectively is made up of lazy people (rather laziness falls within a bell curve – equally true of the private sector) so this ‘real world’ will exist primarily under circumstance a.

    So an ideological attack which resonates with a certain collective ideology will only be effective where that collective ideology exists (obviously).
    It’s less likely that the ideology will exist in areas of relatively high public sector employment so it’s less likely to resonate the further north you go – which is an ineffective strategy when you’re bound to regional politics.

  34. It seems to me that the major boost Lab got after the economy went into recession, the budget shambles, the Local Elections victories and then the heightened Leveson attention has now faded.

    Very understandably, since Leveson has gone quiet and we’re entering into the summer season – eyes will be on the Olympics and holidays. So I doubt there will be much further joy for Lab (probably the obligatory temporary feel-good boost for the Cons during the Olympics too).

    But it is interesting how, at the start of the year, during these “quieter times” for the govt they would be neck-and-neck or Lab would have a small lead, and now the lead has settled around 7 points.

    It will be interesting to see what will happen if there’s another contraction in Q2 but I think the psychological affect of the recession has already been factored in.

    As I mentioned a while ago, this brief spell of joy for Labour has given EM a chance to get a hearing. This spell will close after the conference season so he needs to make sure he makes his speech (and the conference as a whole) is a good one.

  35. THE SHEEP
    I suspect Labour will do best by arguing against either ideology – that the public sector should be used when it’s better than the private sector, that the mutualist sector should be used when it’s better than the corporate sector, that the charitable sector should be used when it’s better than the profit-seeking sectors, that the corporate.. etc

    A strategy of ‘What works best’ is probably going to be a vote winner – IIRC there was some yougov polling recently which showed this has public resonance in regards to the management of the trains.
    The public broadly didn’t care whether it was private or publicly run, as long as the trains ran on time.

    What David Cameron once referred to as the post-ideological world.

  36. Nadine Dorries has posted a blog on ConHome in which she states clearly her belief that the Tories will not permit Lords reform (they are frightened of losing FPTP in the commons if they agree a PR based HoL) and that the Lib Dems will in response not permit the boundary proposals.

    Interestingly, she ends her article thus; “The coalition will run until 2015 as neither parties have anywhere else to go, that and the fact that one important joint objective remains, deficit reduction. That will be the glue that binds us. Just.”

    This is Nadine, so may not be representative of Tory MPs, but her lack of confidence in her parties chances with the electorate are striking.

    Elsewhere, Rawnsley is well worth a read in the Observer – http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jul/15/andrew-rawnsley-only-cameron-can-save-coalition

    His conversations with senior Lib Dems reach the same conclusion. I have to say, I do rather agree with their view that they have been asked to accept some policies that they find repellent (and electorally devastating) while Tory backbenchers steadfastly refuse to do likewise.

    I suspect were are in show down territory now, and now that the Lib Dems realise Cameron can’t deliver on his promises, the coalition dynamics will look very different from here on in.

  37. “@Colin

    R HUCKLE

    @”Is it possible that Cameron is looking for a way out of the coalition ?”

    No-at least not on the basis of his article in today’s ST.

    He is clinging tightly to the wreckage.”

    And you don’t believe such articles can be used for tactical purposes ?

    If the coalition fails, he can point to articles and things he had done as PM to keep the coalition together, but that these were to no avail, due to differences between the parties in parliament.

    Put it this way, if I were playing Cameron at chess, I would never look away from the board !

  38. @SMukesh

    I have had a lot of personal experience of both the NHS and private health care over the last ten years. As far as the NHS is concerned i have found the GP service and Accident & Emergency Hospital Service satisfactory. Where it has failed me is in relation to cancer and cardiac issues. In both cases the private care I have received after trying the NHS was vastly superior.

  39. Jesse Norman is being talked-up as a future leader in some quarters.

  40. Discussing the NHS…
    NHS bosses have suggested terminating all staff contracts and reoffering them on different terms, according to a leaked document obtained by The Sunday Times.

    Sadly a sign of the times, no pun intended…

  41. @ THE OTHER HOWARD

    Peoples experiences of NHS and private are coloured by a pre-conceived measure of expectation. With NHS treatment, even though people pay taxes, they are grateful for any help they receive. With private, I think people expect it to be good and they get what they pay for.

    The NHS will always be a rationed service, whereas private treatment by Insurance is generally covered up to a generous amount, with access to the best doctors/surgeons available in the area. My experience of NHS, is that GP’s are over worked and keep patients to the 10 minute appointment if they can, even if no proper diagnosis can be given. I had to see a GP about possible diabetes and had blood pressure taken, weight taken , with general advice given about diet. The blood test had to be booked with a nurse two weeks later. A private doctor would have allowed more time and I would have had the blood test done at the same time, with test results received quicker.

    My uncle had he not paid for private treatment of heart problems, would have died about 20 years earier than he did. There is no way the NHS would have paid for the number of operations he received.

    I would say my experience of NHS is pretty mixed. It is a satisfactory service and not as good as it is talked up to be. For the NHS to be considered as good as private, it would need major further investment over many years. I think we currently spend 9% of GDP, whereas the countries with the best medical services spend an equivalent of 13-16% of GDP, with more people paying for a private Insurance element.

  42. @TOH
    Fair Enough…I just hope that isn`t the experience of most people given that cancer and cardiac care are supposed to be the priorities of the NHS and there has been some success in improving outcomes in both fields.

    @JIM(THE OTHER ONE)
    `NHS bosses have suggested terminating all staff contracts and reoffering them on different terms.`

    I think it talks about hospital doctors while the GP`s benefited more from excessively generous contracts during Labour rule and earn more than their hospital counterparts
    Now sure whether this is payback for the health professionals` pensions strike.

  43. Need to look beyond the anecdotal for NHS/Private health comparisons.

    Overall, every properly constructed assessment of the NHS tends towards the judgement that it offers better value than private systems, and the NHS improvements in areas like cardiac and cancer treatments in recent years has been among the fastest in the world, albeit from a lower base than other countries. If the rate of improvement in these area were to be maintained for another 2 – 3 years, we would outstrip most of our European counterparts on outcomes, with much lower spending.

    When comparing private and NHS, there are other issues like staff training, which the private sector (like private schools) doesn’t pay full cost for, so a straight comparison is a bit flawed.

  44. @ The Other Howard

    Recently I was half way through a scan when an NHS worker who was assisting walked off saying i am not delaying my lunch! The same day my private cardiologist who i happen to know started work at 7.30 am rang me at 10.15 pm to update me on procedures i had had during the day.
    ————————
    We’ve heard many of your NHS ‘tales from the darkside’ & eulogies to private healthcare. I am sorry to hear of your bad experiences; I do however wonder, given your having a private cardiologist, why do you bother to use the NHS for anything at all? Is it just to reassure yourself that you aren’t wasting your money by having private healthcare?
    8-)

  45. @ Tinged

    And only they live in the ‘real world’ – and this real world doesn’t exist within an ideological construct itself.
    ————————–
    I disagree. I simply said that the real world of the ‘high street’ private sector businesses close at closing time. In the stores, they generally advise you to complete your purchases about 15 minutes before their closing time.
    8-)

  46. @ Tinged

    And, by the way, I was also making the point that those private sector shop-workers are right to leave when their shift ends. They have buses to catch, dinner to eat, & families to see.

  47. @Amber Star

    The only reason I use private health care is because the NHS equivalent has failed me. Indeed if I had stuck to the NHS I would have died from cancer some years ago. I actually dislike paying twice for my healthcare but it seems the only way to get quality treatment. You may be luckier where you live.

    In future I will only use the NHS to get the initial referral to a private consultant when i have serious issues.

  48. TOH,

    Most people can’t afford private health care, so what difference would it make if the private sector was ‘better’, which it almost certainly isn’t for the vast majority of cases?

    Why knock the NHS in other words, since it is the only health care available to most people?

    You should really be demanding an improvement in services for all NHS users, I would have thought.