Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%. For what it’s worth the 35% is the Conservative’s highest level of support from YouGov since the start of May. That said, it is well within the margin of error of recent YouGov polls, so nothing to get excited about. Sure – it could be the start of a narrowing of the polls, but more likely it’s a blip and we’ll be back to a more typical ten point lead tomorrow.


284 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 42, LD 10, UKIP 7”

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  1. KEN

    Any time :-)

    chow.

  2. YouGov always seem to favour the LibDems slightly. I would like to think it is purely down to methodology, and nothing cynical.

  3. Weird x-breaks tonight.

    Rest of the South: Con 39%, Lab 36%, LD 10%.
    Squeeze middle’s pips squeaking?

  4. Ken
    I believe his name was Mainwaring. :-)

  5. BLIMEY………… BBC reporting that.Stockton’s gone bust, ( Stockton CA, USA, of course) . Can you imagine Stockton UK making similar headlines in the States were it to become insolvent. :-)

  6. NYT reports, Gallop, Obama ahead 48 -44, barring events, at this stage, a landslide?

  7. HOWARD…….Of course, how ‘terribly’ remiss of me ! :-)

  8. Ken
    I remember crawling into Lloyds in 1969 to ask for a mortgage of three times my salary (overtime not allowed and Mrs H’s salary not taken into account) and with a deposit that was a quarter of the price £4800) having to put up with the sucking through teeth and the remonstrations about family planning.

    It all seems a long time ago.

  9. Anthony: Re party ellegiance. I am a paid up member of the Labour Party [they offered the cheapest monthly subscription which is what swayed me.]

    However I am also an old hippy but slightly to the right of Gengis Khan on some matters.

    Can you do me a stripey coloured background please? Mostly red, no blue but a little bit of everything else.

    Thankyou in anticipation.

    paul

  10. Ukpollingreport has been plugged by Martin Kettle in the Guardian..AW…Ouch…You are going to have more lefties visiting the site.

  11. Watching Clegg jabbing his finger at the Labour front banch and shaking his head in disgust, at pmq’s, adds to the feeling that he [if not his party] has moved to a permanent right of centre position from which it would be hard to envisage any working relationship with the labour party in future.

    I imagine there has been polling about LD members’ views on this but is there anything recent?

    Its funny to think that, having thought EM could be unelectable, he could well be the only party leader in place after the next GE

    paul

  12. @ Howard

    “NYT reports, Gallop, Obama ahead 48 -44, barring events, at this stage, a landslide?”

    We’ll have to wait and see. I honestly don’t know right now what’s going to happen. The election is a long ways away really.

    I still have trouble believing the election will be close. Everyone always says that, the media always wants that, etc., etc. but I don’t buy it. I mean, the last 3 elections we’ve had have not been close at all. Why suddenly do people imagine that this one will be? How many presidential reelection bids are close affairs? Not many. There are about 4 in our entire history.

    The polls differ with the make up of the polling. The younger and less white the polls are, the larger Obama’s lead is. This is true of polls even with mroe Republicans in the crosstabs than normally turn out. And the other interesting thing is to look at the massive number of Latino voters who voted for McCain in 2008 (he lost this group 2-1 to begin with) who will now vote for Obama. This takes Obama from a 2-1 edge to possibly a 6-1 or 7-1 edge. That’s something. Of course, it won’t mean much if Latinos don’t turn out. There’s no guarantee that they will or they won’t.

    Anyway, I’m rambling. Short answer, I do not know.

    Oh and I’m not watching Wimbeldon but I’m rooting for Andy Murray.

  13. HOWARD………..You wouldn’t believe what went on behind the scenes when someone applied for a mortgage. We had to decide whether or not the branch could afford it ! We had a formula based on deposits and withdrawals and then applied to ‘region’ for any balance, all done in ledgers entered with different coloured inks, no computers in those days. :-)

  14. @Ken

    But it worked! People did not over-borrow. Bank’s did not lend up to 900% of their deposit income. And house prices were sensible.

  15. Hi folks. Any chance of some feedback on these graphs?

    It’s a 3.5 Meg pdf file, and I’d appreciate some info, since, if I decide to take this further, I might start hosting them myself.

    h ttp://www.freefilehosting.net/ygpublished_1

  16. RAF………..You’re right, we used to consider it a privilege to deal with people solvent enough to take out a mortgage. :-)

  17. @ Howard

    “It will reduce partisanship in non-partisans. They have fewer partisan influences with the Net. That is to say they will have many influences but it is more likely they will be mentally challenged.

    Take here for instance. :)”

    Hmmm, I would hope so. It’s fine to be partisan and to like your political party and get involved in it. It’s not so fine when you become so blinded by your own partisanship that you hate anyone in office who is not a member of your party and reject any proposal or law simply because it was embraced by your opponent. Similarly, when you become so deranged that you start accusing your political opponents of a wide variety of cockamamie (at best) conspiracy theories simply because of your political allegiance, that’s not so fine.

  18. Daily Mail headline- “Boring Bob: Former Barclays boss Diamond fails to dish the dirt on politicians or bankers despite grilling by MPs over rate-fixing scandal”

    Telegraph headline – “Bob Diamond: Labour ministers were warned about Libor fixing”

    What’s going on?

    I tend to rate @Colin’s assessment of these kind of events, as he tends to pick up detail and often does a better job than the highly paid political journalists. It’s also a pretty fair bet that he would have said something if Diamond Bob had actually fingered Labour ministers, so I’m content to assume that the Telegraph is over reporting this.

    Will be interesting to watch the polls with this. Unless something explosive does come out against Labour, I’m tending to think that at present the net gain probably lies with Labour, if only that the headline from this affair is that Ed wants a big and fancy public inquiry while Dave wants a small and quiet affair.

    I strongly suspect that the average voter won’t know the difference between the two in practice, but end up hearing the message that Cameron is resisting an inquiry. I could be wrong though.

  19. @ALEC
    `What’s going on?`

    MIchael Fallon,deputy chair of the conservative party repeatedly invited Bob Diamond to comment whether `senior Whitehall figures` mentioned in the email meant ministers and the reply was `I don`t want to speculate about it as I don`t know`.He also denied knowing that Labour ministers ever wanted Libor to be fixed.

  20. Statgeek, I’ve clicked on your link but I can’t see anything other than the “freefilehosting” bit. Any ideas?

    Rgds, Martyn

  21. There should be a “Download This File” button, then a short captcha.

  22. @Statgeek

    Great, much more convenient rather having to click x amount of links, just scrolling down is much easier.

  23. Forgot to mention. You can use the ‘page thumbnails’ button on the left of the PDF viewer to great effect if you want to jump to a particular section.

    Once I get a system of updating the graphs (it gets easier after a while) I’ll update my link (my name) with the latest version.

  24. Just noticed that the ‘x’ axis dates didn’t work out. Excel formatting of dates (sigh). Will be fixed in the next edition.

  25. @ Anthony

    Here’s all the newspaper circulation figures. I keep them in a spreadsheet & update monthly.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/abcs?INTCMP=SRCH

    8-)

  26. @thesheep

    Devo Plus is weaker than Devo Max but more precisely defined.

    It’s a set of proposals put forward by the right of centre Reform Scotland (but with some Lib Dem and Labour MSP supporters) which would essentially mean that the Scottish Government would have the power to raise all the money it spends (inc income tax and a geographical share of oil revenue) but without any significant change in terms of devolved powers. Westminster retains control of VAT and NI. More here :

    http://www.devoplus.com/what-is-devo-plus/

    Devo Max is not fully defined but is more like a federal solution with the SG paying a grant to the UK Govt fro any residual shared powers services ( eg defence).

    Hope that helps!

  27. Good Morning all.
    PAUL CROFT.

    I agree. Nick Clegg was furious yesterday; my instincts are that he is temperamentally close to Conservatives. This would also seem to apply to Danny Alexander and David Lawes.

  28. CLAD.
    Good morning to you.
    You also agree that the YG figures are very high when it comes to the Lib Dems. Nice to have a comrade agreeing with my analysis.

  29. PAUL CROFT

    @”Watching Clegg jabbing his finger at the Labour front banch and shaking his head in disgust, at pmq’s, adds to the feeling that he [if not his party] has moved to a permanent right of centre position from which it would be hard to envisage any working relationship with the labour party in future.”

    Do you need to “move to the centre right”-or anywhere else-to become angered at Opposition front bench dissembling & double standards?

  30. COLIN.
    Good Morning to you.
    I think it is the feeling of deep hostility to Labour people and an instinctive sympathy with Tories, which Nick Clegg shows in his PMQ performancs, about which Paul was commenting.

  31. Seems like a bit of a wasted parliamentary vote from Labour today – although every third party (except the LibDems) is backing Labour, the coalition will still win the vote by a large margin.
    It seems like the press are completely behind the coalition on this also – taking Osborne’s ‘Labour are guilty’ line and running with it.

    The Army cuts will probably dominate today, which is probably bad news for the Tories in polling terms [1], but I suspect that ‘Labour are guilty’ will be the longer-running story so more damaging to Labour.

    [1] This, like the NHS, is another sacred cow of British politics – no matter the case for the restructuring (I agree largely with the government’s military restructuring), it’ll always be bad news for the government when they try.

  32. TINGED FRINGE.
    Sadly, having read Andrew Rawnsley’s second book on New Labour I would have to say that Labour is vulnerable on the Bankers and the City of London issue.

    He starts off one of his chapters by quoting, vervbatim, the panoply of praise from Gordon Brown to the Financial Oligarchs.

  33. Statgeek,

    Great idea, hope to see updates.

    No idea what you are plotting though. Clearly not MAD, because deviations wouldn’t be that big, or that interesting either. Could you expand the explanations?

    The “trends” graphs look very strange – you seem to have plotted the data backwards!

  34. @Tingedfringe – “Seems like a bit of a wasted parliamentary vote from Labour today – although every third party (except the LibDems) is backing Labour, the coalition will still win the vote by a large margin.”

    Don’t agree. I see this as a very smart move which will keep Labour looking and sounding positive on the banking front.

    Likewise @Chrislane1945 – their opponents can quote G. Brown on banks all they like, but Milliband will simply agree that they made mistakes and say that this is why we want a full public inquiry.

    We are in the land of speculation, as we don’t have all the evidence, my feel very strongly that Labour’s positioning will give them the edge on the banking issue, which is potentially going to be a long running scandal akin to the NI affair.

    Osborne by contrast has gone for the 48hr news agenda angle – not untypical, but it is reported as causing disquiet within No 10. If he cannot find smoking gun evidence against Labour ministers, he will have shot the governments bolt as far as the independence of his preferred process goes, and will leave Ed looking more like a PM in waiting as each day passes.

  35. @chrislane1945 – ” …hostility to Labour people”

    I think Clegg found it deeply humiliating to be swatted away by Gordon Brown at PMQs. He struggled to be heard or make any impression as LD leader prior to “cleggmania”… the press descibed him as a bag carrier for Vince Cable.

    The focus of his election campaign was to bring down Brown… within the LDs he had been instrumental in the agitation against both Kennedy and Campbell.

    The big break into politics (working for EU commissioner Leon Brittan) came though an intervention from his father’s friend Lord Carrington.

    From there he was taken under the wing of Paddy Asdown. He joined an imformal Tory lunching club for MEPs, and persuaded one of them to defect to the LDs.

  36. ALEC.
    I agree that ED Miliband can now distance himself from New Labour, which he tried to do in his second Leader’s Speech.

    BILLY BOB.
    Thank you for the clear explanation; I think in 1214 he will go back to EU as a Commissioner.

  37. Perhaps more pertinent to how people feel and vote, the monthly household spending figures today from Visa indicate weak consumer spending, falling by 3.8% year on year. Online and telephone sales were actually down by significantly more, with Visa saying this scotches ideas that the bad weather was to blame. They also don’t think the jubilee had much to do with it, as declines in some areas were offset by a big increase (+5.5%) in the hotel and leisure sector.

    I think the Q2 economic numbers look like they will remain poor, and with the recent numbers on the service and manufacturing sectors, we are beginning to see a chance that a continued decline into Q3 could mean a year long recession looms.

  38. Is it possible that Nick Clegg will try to forge a semi-permanent coalition with the Tories until at least 2020 ?

    If he does, I think the Lib Dems would split into two parties, as I can’t see people like Vince Cable accepting this.

    It is interesting what is happening to the Lib Dems in the HOC, as is looking like a tribal red against the blue team game. The psychology of the Lib Dems appears to be that they need to stick with the Tories position and not show any sense of disunity, as that would not benefit the Lib Dems at the next GE.

    I can see the logic in this, as being the largest third party who could make up the next coalition from 2015 onwards, they will want to show that they are loyal and trustworthy. I think they can perform the same role with Labour and act in the same way. But perhaps not with Nick Clegg as their leader.

    The only problem with this strategy, is that the Lib Dems may not be the third largest party in the HOC after the next GE. It is possible that the SNP may overtake the Lib Dems in terms of number of seats won and they may form a coalition, if required. This is if they don’t win the referendum on independence, but still perform well in a 2015 Westminster GE. The SNP may want further powers to be devolved to Edinburgh and I think that this will be on offer, if they help form a coalition.

  39. I’m quite tickled today with the news from the MoD of 20,000 troop cuts. I recall some time ago pre election, recounting on UKPR an assessment from RUSI that analysed Tory spending proposals and calculated that 25,000 front line serving personnel would have to be lost and that their promises that cuts would only affect backroom staff were bogus.

    At the time I got savaged by the then @Roland, who very forcibly put me in my place, saying that the idea of a Tory government sacking tens of thousands of our brave boys was left wing nonsense.

    Perhaps this helps explain why he no longer appears to be posting here?

  40. @ ALEC

    Perhaps Roland is now Nick P ! :)

  41. R Huckle,

    Hung parliaments do not happen very often. There’s no reason to suppose the next government will be a coalition; just because this one is does not alter the odds for the next one. It is much more likely that the next parliament will be a majority government by a single party.

    Any political strategy that supposes a coalition after 2015 really is clutching at straws.

  42. A big concern for the Cons and DC is that Lab VI appears to be increasingly firm.

    I don’t see that using the LIBOR scandal to attack Lab is goinf to have any impact at all on VI. For me, GO’s attackes on Lab and inparticular EB is wholly designed to deflect and divert attention from the cuts to the military.

  43. CHRISLANE

    I think it was a feeling of deep cynicism & anger at the regulatory mess he is having to clear up, whilst being criticised by those who left it.

    You didn’t need to be a lip reader-the jabbing finger told the story.

  44. @HAL

    “No idea what you are plotting though. Clearly not MAD, because deviations wouldn’t be that big, or that interesting either. Could you expand the explanations?”

    Certainly. First, see these links to see if my sources are wrong:

    h ttp://www.examiner.com/article/statistical-outliers-detection-microsoft-excel-worksheet

    h ttp://www.graphpad.com/faq/viewfaq.cfm?faq=1299

    Note that I don’t use the exact formulae in the first link, as I setup my own, but have since checked against the formulae on the link, and they tally 100%.

    Let’s take the Labour MAD for Scotland (plenty of deviations) versus Labour MAD for the UK (more consistent. I prepared a couple of screenshots to explain.

    Please bear in mind that the point is to detect and omit the outliers and to try to get a better idea of the underlying VI by averaging the ‘valid’ values. This is the objective. There’s no guarantee of success; only an idea of what’s going on.

    All MAD data is calculated on 30 polls of data, so can also be considered semi-obsolete, depending on one’s demands for up to date accuracy. Sudden legitimate changes in VI will not show up immediately in many cases.

    h ttp://tinypic.com/r/25piwsk/6 – Examples of MAD calcs

    h ttp://tinypic.com/r/4lmo/6 – Notes and graphs

    Suggest you open both at once, and flip back and forth. Feel free to comment. If I’m doing it wrongly, I want to know.

    RE: Trends – Well noted!!

    A side-effect of the problem with the date format issue (note that the ‘x’ axis is full of 40xxx numbers, which is Excel’s fault (i.e. it’s my fault I didn’t anticipate Excel being a pain in the rear).

    I have my normal spreadsheet, plus a new one with all the graphs for the publish to PDF bit. If I open the latter without the former being open, and save as PDF, all sorts of weird things happen (as you can see). Solution is to have the original SS open, and save it. You can get the latest version here:

    h ttp://www.freefilehosting.net/ygpublished_2

  45. Labour will lose today’s vote.

    But that isn’t the key issue.

    Tyrie says he won’t chair a Joint Committee unless it has the cross party approval.

    If Labour vote against the Government proposal-or even abstain-that isn’t cross party approval.

    Hollande’s response to his auditors’ news that he needs fiscal tightening of £34bn over two years is some eye watering tax increases-Business, Oil companies , high earners, and housowners.

    That little place down in the Dordoigne has just got a whole lot more expensive.

    The French Civil Service Minister said that civil servants were heading for a “great moment of rigour” -sounds painful-but is it better , or worse than “austerity” ? :-)

  46. @Colin – “I think it was a feeling of deep cynicism & anger at the regulatory mess he is having to clear up, whilst being criticised by those who left it.”

    Being totally non partisan (I’m not Labour anyway, but do feel the need to remind people of this now and again) I can greatly sympathize with @Colin’s statement. There is no question that Labour bear a hefty part of the responsibility for rejecting the calls for better control of both the finance sector but also for better control of credit as a whole.

    In a logical world, the Tories would also not be able to claim this issue for themselves, for they too were highly flawed in their approach to the city, both when in power but also throughout the Labour years. Only St Vince of Twickenham is really able to maintain any real credibility on this issue, as he was miles ahead of all other politicians in pinpointing the issue and calling for action well before the proverbial hit the fan.

    So, next step, what does this mean for polling? There are dangers for both main parties, but my suspicion is that with a poorly performing economy (for whatever reason) Labour will find their position a little easier than the Tories.

    Although Ed was in the government and close to Brown, he was largely backroom with little voter recognition. By electing him and not David, Labour gave themselves a little breathing space. Ed has helped this by his vaguely disarming honesty about Labour’s mistakes – which some in his party were very nervous about over the last two years. However, Ed’s approach is sound – criticising Labour’s record on the banks is now a bit like trying to nail a jelly to the wall – Ed will simply agree they made mistakes and call for an independent inquiry.

    For the Tories, they have a problem maintaining this line all the way through a 2015 election. They are effectively campaigning more like an opposition still than the government. They promised to fix ‘Labour’s mess’, but unless they can get positive economic news to make their case for them, they will struggle to keep voters minds focused onto Labour weaknesses.

    If this recession does end up stretching across 4 quarters, which is beginning to look distinctly possible, the cards really are beginning to be stacked well in Labour’s favour.

  47. @Colin – Lucy Manning has tweeted that the government has not denied it is looking at alternatives for the inquiry.

    You are quite correct in that a Labour no vote will scupper the governments preferred option. Once again, UKPR is ahead of most of the political pack, who have variously been saying Labour will lose the vote so that’s a win for Cameron.

    Why aren’t we paid thousands to write for the papers?

  48. ALEC

    Thanks.

    I think the LIBOR thing has two prongs to it politically :-

    1) Tucker before TSC-next week as I understand it.

    Dan Hodges says he thinks “Whitehall” is Shriti Vadera. Diamond did say yesterday that she was very much involved with the recapitalisation of Banks in 2008. If it turns out to be her who effectively signalled that Barclays should pull its LIBOR numbers into line with others, then I think there will be some mileage for Cons -if only because she has said she didn’t talk to Tucker.
    But I agree also with Hodges that GO has shot “too high too early”. Vadera will not be on most people’s radar-and as I said yesterday, I think there is a perfectly good defence for Labour given the state of UK banks at the time ( as distinct of course from individual Barclays traders influencing LIBOR for gain)

    GO needs to be careful-much better to stick with the “we are having to clear it all up” narrative, than taking pot shots at Labour Ministers.

    2) The vote on the Joint Committee today-or more specifically Tyrie’s decision in the light of it.

    If Tyrie says-this is now partisan-I’m not doing it-and DC appoints Peter Lilly as has been suggested, I think DC will begin to lose the edge.

    I don’t know what the outcome-or public perception will be , but I kind of feal Labour has most upside .

  49. @COLIN
    That is a very balanced post which I agree with almost entirely.
    The one glitch is Labour has some powerful enemies in the media who would be keen to exploit any wrongdoing whatever the circumstances were at the time.Clearly Balls would be the target but Vadera or anyone to do anything with Labour would do.

    Despite Bob Diamond going out of his way not to implicate Labour ministers,some news stories today don`t actually reflect that but journalists` suspicions without accompanying evidence.

  50. @ COLIN

    Of course Vadera would have had conversations with many people at the time of the banking crisis. I suspect that all aspects were discussed, maybe even LIBOR. But I doubt that in any conversations, there was talk of Banks lowering LIBOR.

    Ministers tend to have their meetings recorded and any inquiry will be given access to any minutes. Therefore at some point the whole issue should be clarified. Any politician who tries to find others guilty before all the evidence has been gathered may be made to look a bit silly.

    Osborne and other Tories have allowed Ed Balls to get under their skins and is never a good idea for politics to become personal, rather than be about the issues.

    @ HAL

    Many people believe that a coalition is the most likely outcome at the 2015 GE, given the reduced number of seats and possible state of the economy. People may not wish to give any party a majority, if they are not persuaded that they can deliver an economy that is better for their families.

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