Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%. For what it’s worth the 35% is the Conservative’s highest level of support from YouGov since the start of May. That said, it is well within the margin of error of recent YouGov polls, so nothing to get excited about. Sure – it could be the start of a narrowing of the polls, but more likely it’s a blip and we’ll be back to a more typical ten point lead tomorrow.


284 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 42, LD 10, UKIP 7”

1 2 3 6
  1. 1st

    Non-partisan

    Outlier?

  2. Outlier?

    EU referendum bounce? :evil:

  3. STATGEEK

    “Non-partisan”

    So what, in particular, do you have against Tito’s resistance movement against the Nazi invasion?

  4. Take a look at the sun front page, if it turns out to be true and it gets reported all over the news its going to wipe Labour’s poll leads away in an instant. Wonder if Red Ed will call for an inquiry and resignations from his own bench including him self?

  5. It’s hard to tell, but if the front pages are anything to go by, and more evidence comes out of the LIBOR scandal, we might see Labour plummet if they really are to get dragged into the scandal. And Balls was looking very uncomfortable today.

    We’ll see.

  6. Only 7%?

    I’m off to drown some kittens!

  7. I’m not sure exactly how the BoE memo is being spun to make Libor Fixing all Labour’s fault… It’s rather like saying “But the council marked the street as no-parking, so obviously they were giving me the nod to steal cars.”

    Pressure on trying to maintain low interest lending from the banks is actually something that the *current government is doing as well*. Project Merlin ring any bells?

  8. if it were a EU referendum bounce, then wouldn’t the UKIP VI go down? 7% seems normal for them. Either outlier or the recent retreat from 12-14% Labour leads is continuing.

    I wonder if it is just banking naughtiness and resignations pushing government problems from headlines.

  9. @Jayblanc. The memo came from baroness Varena, Brown’s inner circle BoE go between aparently. I’m sure it will become more clear after Bob Diamond gives evidence and more clarity is brought to the situation with scrutiny.

  10. Irrespective of what may have been said or misunderstood in late 2008, that hardly excuses the rate fixing that had been going on since 2005.

    And the note of the phone conversation with Turner, even if accurate, does nothing more than show that ‘Whitehall’ was (legitimately) concerned about the high LIBOR.

    @Jayblanc
    “But the council marked the street as no-parking, so obviously they were giving me the nod to steal cars.”

    Exactly. Saying ‘Please do what you can to keep this road free of parked cars’ would not normally be interpreted as a green light for illegal behaviour. Only those who are predisposed to such behaviour who might take it that way.

  11. @ Keith HP

    It may not be the EU referendum thing. UKIP have been 8 & as high as 9. So a couple of points from UKIP would’ve got the Tories to around 34. They’re on 35. But of course, the return of a couple of % from UKIP could be less about the EU & more about the Tories not finding a new way to embarrass themselves since Friday last.

    Labour at 42 are not hitting their highest point; I’m attributing that to the uptick to 10 of the LDs. Maybe that’s thanks to Cable taking a fairly strong line on the banks. He’s in much more comfortable territory for banker bashing than Labour; although Ed Miliband does it anyway & skates over the discomfort of some in our Party. And of course, let’s not forget that some LDs actually get excited about Lords reform. So they’ll be happy with Clegg & not so happy with Ed.
    8-)

  12. @ Richard

    Take a look at the sun front page
    ————–
    The internet version must not be what you are referring to because it’s got nothing about politics on it. I’m guessing you’re referring to the print edition, which I haven’t seen.

    I’m thinking not many Labour or potential Labour supporters read the print edition of the Sun now.
    8-)

  13. I think it’s interesting to note that in this poll – and quite a few other recent polls – the combined Conservative and UKIP share is about the same as it was in the 2010 election (for Great Britain excl. Northern Ireland).

  14. @ Astroreaper

    The memo came from baroness Varena [sic], Brown’s inner circle BoE go between aparently. I’m sure it will become more clear after Bob Diamond gives evidence and more clarity is brought to the situation with scrutiny.
    ———————
    The memo from Baroness Vadera will be available for scrutiny & discussion.

    Documents seen by the BBC on Monday indicate that ministers in the last Labour government held discussions with banks about policies which would allow the Libor rate to fall. Provided none of the policies were ‘have the banks submit false returns to the BBA’ then Labour need only worry about the general stickiness of mud.

    There are hopes that Diamond will heat up the scandal when he appears before MPs (which was scheduled for later today). I think it may well be a damp squib after all the build up but you never know…
    8-)

  15. Well, they could just throw Ed Balls under the bus…

    I’d be very happy if I were Vince Cable though.

  16. Nothing doing here- normal variation around what was a slightly smaller Labour lead over recent weeks.

    EU chit chat likely to – in the main- shift the deck chairs around between Con and UKIP.

    It is too early for a LIBOR impact. IF however Diamonds ‘2 barrels’ finger senior Labour figures as well as BOE (in a way that has proof rather than hearsay) then we could see a decline in Labours numbers. IMHO we won’t hear anything from him for labour to worry about- I think he would have used it already prior to resigning. But I have been known to be wrong on here over the last 3 and a half years :-)

  17. @ Amber

    “I’m thinking not many Labour or potential Labour supporters read the print edition of the Sun now.”

    I don’t thiink that is true but would be nice to see some recent figures. One of the problems for Labour with the Sun is that it influences what should be core Labour support.

    I did a web search and found 2005 figures from Mori split by newspaper readership. They had Labour at 41% among Sun readers. More amazingly it shows the Mail with 21% Labour voters!!!!

    I can’t see the Libor scandal working through badly for Labour my gut feeling up to now is the Tories have done worse out of it because of their close association with the finance industry and their previous calls for less regulation. This is maybe a bit of an unfair outcome given it happened under Labour’s watch. However I can’t see any Labour skeletons here if they are calling for a judicial enquiry. Be nice to see some polling questions on this issue.

  18. Read the latest in our series on the effect of boundary changes on existing parliamentary constituencies – today – Surrey:
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/07/south-east-boundary-changes-part-6-surrey/

  19. @Richard @Amber
    As always, it doesn’t matter what the truth of what happened is – it only matters about perception of the truth.

    This could be potentially damaging for Labour in terms of VI – but it’s not necessarily going to be great news for the Tories or LibDems (who current Labour voters are not very pleased with either).
    Where Labour voters would go is the big question – if it’s unlikely they return to the LibDems and unlikely they go with the Tories (being made up largely of people who voted Brown in 2010 and anti-Tory ex-LibDems), the potential for a Labour separatist party (ala SDP) or other centre-left third parties (Green, SNP, PCY) to sweep those voters up.

    A split-left (Labour+Green/etc) and split-right (Con+UKIP) would make politics quite interesting – especially under the creaking FPTP system.
    If the Lab vote does split in half (for example), so low-20s for Lab, low-20s for ‘New Centre Left’, and the Conservatives won on their current 31-35%, I can’t imagine the public would remain terribly happy with the result.

    Hopefully this part of my post doesn’t come off as too partisan sounding – but I do often wonder if Labour pushed Ed Miliband for the role of leader because he was the only one without potential skeletons in his closet.
    While this sort of scandal, if someone like Ed Balls is implicated (whether he did actually do anything or not), it’d be terrible for Labour in the short-term but could be good for Labour in the longer term as they’re able to ‘clear house’.

  20. The big Sun headline story is actually nothing of the kind – it’s precisely the same story as everyone had yesterday, with the word ‘Labour’ inserted instead of ‘Whitehall’. So far the story remains that Bob D wrote a memo to Barclays execs giving his notes on a conversation with the BoE, which he said previously did not suggest they should deliberately doctor Libor but that other Barclays staff thought gave them the green light.

    What’s clear is that there are large parts of the right leaning media and political scene seeking to use this to resurrect the ‘it’s all Labour’s fault’ meme, while still struggling for the killer evidence.

    That said,it’s perception, not fact that moves polls. In this, unless the whole story unravels relatively quickly, I would imagine Labour may suffer some impact, although Ed’s very rapid calls for a full and open public inquiry will give him some kind of shield to hide behind.

    I suspect we’ll end up in a slightly confused complex story which ends up making the banks look bad with a score draw on the politics of it all. Given that Barclays have been under investigation for months now, as other banks still are, if this is the best ‘evidence’ they can produce that they were just following orders, I tend to think that this story is not a big killer for Labour.

    For the Tories, by being too political about this they have probably blown their chances for a limited parliamentary inquiry, as Tyrie has already said he won’t do this unless there is cross party support. By being less party political they might have got what they wanted. If the story does flounder and drown, they may also regret trying to make it so political as well.

    Will be an interesting session this afternoon.

  21. @Americanbystander

    Of course they should throw Ed Balls under the bus. Because the Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families was responsible for Libor…

    Mr Balls stopped being Economic Secretary well before this. Even then Economic Secretary is described as the 5th most senior ministerial position in the treasury. In fact the very same post held by Chloe Smith – widely regarded as too junior to go on Newsnight.

    I’m also bemused by the new interpretation of “Whitehall” as meaning politicians. It’s actual use is as a shorthand for the civil service…

  22. @ Smukesh

    The Guardian have all the details up until 2005

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/oct/05/sun-labour-newspapers-support-elections

    A more recent update found:
    1. At the 2010 GE, Sun readers: 43% voted Tory & 28% Labour, a swing of 15.3% since 2005.
    2. The Sun’s circulation has fallen by almost 0.5M copies since it switched its support away from the Labour Party.
    8-)

  23. @ Smukesh

    :oops: typo alert: a swing of 15.3% should say 13.5%

  24. @Tinged

    Hopefully this part of my post doesn’t come off as too partisan sounding – but I do often wonder if Labour pushed Ed Miliband for the role of leader because he was the only one without potential skeletons in his closet.
    —————————-
    I agree, that’s why Ed M got more votes than David M. The Unions, despite the myths, want a Labour leader who can win. They were quick to acknowlege that LibDems would come ‘home’ to Labour but only if the leader hadn’t been involved in the Iraq debacle.
    8-)

  25. I think that what this so far limited story does tell us is that there is still a groundswell looking to attack Labour. This holds for the media, as well as for UKPR, with a number of new look posters appearing here and looking to capitalise on perceived Labour discomfort.

    If this holds for the wider population, and I rather suspect it does, it does demonstrate that Labour’s hefty poll leads are potentially fragile to an extent, and are not necessarily borne out of a new found love for Ed.

  26. @ Old Nat

    “So what, in particular, do you have against Tito’s resistance movement against the Nazi invasion?”

    I don’t quite follow, friend.

  27. @Socal – Tito’s bunch were known as the partisans.

  28. Public inquiries are like referendums; ask the public, do they want one & they’ll answer, yes.

    So, the question will likely be framed in Party political terms – e.g. Ed Miliband wants a public inquiry; David Cameron wants a parliamentary inquiry; which do you want?
    A judge lead public inquiry
    A parliamentary inquiry
    Don’t Know [& don’t care]
    8-)

  29. @ American Bystander

    Well, they could just throw Ed Balls under the bus…
    ——————–
    Labour are not going to do that. He drives Cameron & Osborne to fury just by sledging them.

    And their comments about ‘seeing him in the dock’ were so ‘nasty’ that it undermined their claim about the parliamentary inquiry being non-partisan.

    Tyrie has agreed to chair it only if it has all Party support (effectively handing Ed M a ‘veto’). Opionistas have commented that his position resulted from Cameron & Osborne’s obvious targetting of Ed Balls.
    8-)

  30. @Amber,

    “The Sun’s circulation has fallen by almost 0.5M copies since it switched its support away from the Labour Party.

    Could be something in that. However, as I understand it, newspaper circulations (generally) have fallen in recent times with the invention of 24 hour internet news (that is often free).

  31. ROBIN

    @”rrespective of what may have been said or misunderstood in late 2008, that hardly excuses the rate fixing that had been going on since 2005.”

    Absolutely-I hope TSC give as much attention to the latter as the former.

  32. I find it very difficult to believe that ‘Whitehall’ senior figures, told the BOE to put pressure on Banks to rig LIBOR.

    It appears that there were comments made about LIBOR, but I doubt that anyone gave instructions for Banks to actually fiddle the rates. If you were a senior Banker you would know this was wrong and you would get something in writing, so it could be discussed with compliance managers. You would have to be pretty stupid to perform an illegal action instructed by others, without having some evidence in writing that could be produced later if required.

    If Barclays LIBOR rates were higher than those of other Banks, it can only have been decisions made at Barclays, that would have changed what they were reporting.

    At some point the inquiries should reveal what had happened, as other senior Bankers from the other major Banks will also provide evidence. I would presume that someone had made a note of the people in ‘Whitehall’ who was instructing Banks to fiddle LIBOR. I am guessing that if it was senior Labour politicians, they would all quickly release the information. It is not possible for the ‘Whitehall’ people to remain anonymous. They tend to have civil servants listening to phone calls/meetings and taking notes which are kept.

  33. @ Alec

    “What’s clear is that there are large parts of the right leaning media and political scene seeking to use this to resurrect the ‘it’s all Labour’s fault’ meme, while still struggling for the killer evidence.”

    I haven’t been able to follow this story that closely (all I know is someone from Barclays is getting sued or under indictment and supposedly claims that back in 2008, a Labour minister gave them a greenlight for their activities) but I get the feeling that your news media is not too friendly to Labour and seem to be be more favorable/predisposed to the Tories. And this kind of story helps make Labour look bad and unfit to hold office.

    “That said,it’s perception, not fact that moves polls. In this, unless the whole story unravels relatively quickly, I would imagine Labour may suffer some impact, although Ed’s very rapid calls for a full and open public inquiry will give him some kind of shield to hide behind.

    I suspect we’ll end up in a slightly confused complex story which ends up making the banks look bad with a score draw on the politics of it all. Given that Barclays have been under investigation for months now, as other banks still are, if this is the best ‘evidence’ they can produce that they were just following orders, I tend to think that this story is not a big killer for Labour. ”

    I agree. Perception is what moves the polls. I’m not sure about a complicated story hurts or help really.

    “If this holds for the wider population, and I rather suspect it does, it does demonstrate that Labour’s hefty poll leads are potentially fragile to an extent, and are not necessarily borne out of a new found love for Ed.”

    I think the recent poll movements in favor of Labour have been driven by dislike for the Tory government rather than out of any love for Ed. So yeah, Labour’s polling leads under Ed, IMHO, are fairly vulnerable.

  34. @ Alec

    “Tito’s bunch were known as the partisans.”

    Did not know that. Thanks. :)

  35. Question Time last week form Luton was notable for the extent to which Justine Greening was groaned at by the audience every time she resurrected the “it’s all Labour’s fault” line. The biggest applause was for a member of the audience who said she was sick and tired of it: “You’re the government now”.

    Blame Labour has become a cliche, almost the raison d’etre for the entire coalition government… they will be hoping that evidence emerges of Labour government minister committing a crime of some kind. If not a crime, then some embarrassing texts and a champagne supper in the hospitality box.

    Equally perhaps, some Labour people may hope that their own bêtes noires come off badly… but such polling evidence as there is suggests that David Miliband for instance remains well respected and popular both within the party and among the electorate as a whole – one suspects in the long run that what the brothers have in common will be very important. Differences in temperament could well be the factor that determined which one was best suited to be Labour leader.

  36. @ R Huckle

    Was I discussing music and British influenced bands with you last week? I can’t remember. Anyway, I learned some exciting news. There is going to be a new musical of Spice Girls music. It’s going to be modeled off of the all Abba music musical. I am SO EXCITED about this! I don’t know where it’s debuting (I assume London) but when it comes here, I cannot wait to go.

  37. R HUCKLE

    I have just watched some city bod being interviewed on BBC tv.

    He was saying that debates about the way LIBOR is compiled go way back. MK expressed a desire for “real transactions” to be the source-but apparently they remained essentially estimates.

    If that is true , I can’t see what the fuss is about.

    It is all very confusing-LIBOR looks like a cinderella corner of the financial markets that just got left behind.

  38. Not really 7 points yet. But this does kind of confirm the lead certianly isnt 11-12, more like 9 now.

  39. @ Billy Bob

    “Question Time last week form Luton was notable for the extent to which Justine Greening was groaned at by the audience every time she resurrected the “it’s all Labour’s fault” line. The biggest applause was for a member of the audience who said she was sick and tired of it: “You’re the government now”.

    Blame Labour has become a cliche, almost the raison d’etre for the entire coalition government… they will be hoping that evidence emerges of Labour government minister committing a crime of some kind. If not a crime, then some embarrassing texts and a champagne supper in the hospitality box.”

    Yeah, that seems to work more in British politics. But I think even in British politics, blaming your predecessors can only be done so much. Just like in American politics, completely ignoring and dismissing the legacy of predecessors can only happen so much. I think there’s an outer limit to these things.

    Ot….any of y’all ever been to Malta? Is it considered European and is it a democracy and/or an impregnable fortress?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/03/john-roberts-arrives-in-malta_n_1647506.html?1341349621&icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D175625

    (Poor little guy, looks like stress has taken its toll on him though that could just be jetlag and the after effects of a long flight).

  40. @JayBlanc
    “But the council marked the street as no-parking, so obviously they were giving me the nod to steal cars.”

    If EM and EB use this line – nice pithy phrasing, btw – it will go a long way to shielding them from Con smears and innuendo. I suspect DC and GO have shot their bolt too early. Did anyone else notice GO’s face on the news last night? He looked like he hadn’t slept in days. Ouch.

  41. @ SOCAL

    ” Spice girls musical “. I think you are having a laugh !

    My music tastes are varied but I don’t like pop that much. I like anything from Dr. John to Metallica. Proper music, performed by people who can play instruments. Though having said that, I did actually like Abba.

    One of the current best acts to come out of the States, are ‘Alabama Shakes’

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLPMAho8K-0

  42. @ Colin

    Agree with your comments about LIBOR.

    It was only a few months ago, that Labour did try to amend the finance bill I think, to deal with issues regarding LIBOR. These were rejected by the government and Mark Hoban admitted yesterday that the reasons for this was that they knew about the LIBOR investigations going on.

    Apparently those in the know, have known about this latest scandal for about 2 years, but there has not been any attempt to change the system. They have seen the fixing issue, as a past event, that is no longer a problem.

  43. R HUCKLE,

    I think a more likely explanation is that opening up the Libor affair two years ago might have tipped the banking sector over the edge and pushed up Libor when they desperately wanted to keep it low.

    If that is the case then we get close to complicity, the regulators and politicians knew it was being kept artificially low but turned a blind eye because it suited them.

    Another potential consequence of this is to create the impression that politicians of all parties are unwilling or unable to properly regulate the city. It has gone from too big to fail to too big to control.

    Peter.

  44. @Amber – “The Sun’s circulation has fallen by almost 0.5M copies since it switched its support away from the Labour Party.”

    @AMBIVALENTSUPPORTER – Could be something in that. However, as I understand it, newspaper circulations (generally) have fallen in recent times with the invention of 24 hour internet news (that is often free).

    Ambivalent – there is nothing whatsoever in it. It is partisan abuse of statistics. The Sun’s readership has indeed fallen by that amount since Sept 2009… but all newspapers readership has fallen, and in terms of percentage the Sun’s has fallen the *least*.

    The Sun’s readership since Sep 2009 has fallen by 6%, the Mail’s by 10%, Mirror 10%, Telegraph 20%, Star 9%, Times 25%, Express 17%, Guardian 7%, Independent 16%, Financial Times 30%.

    If one was to try and conclude some effect on circulation from the Sun’s switch in politics (which, personally, I think would be a complete nonsense anyway, given the huge amount of other factors) one would have to conclude it has helped their sales.

  45. @PETERCAIRNS

    Remember the Banker who came on BBC Newsnight and said that Goldman Sachs ran the country. People were amazed by what they said. But it is true that Banks in general do run the UK, as well as most countries in the world. Why do senior politicians feel the need to spend ‘quality time’ with Bankers on their Yachts moored in the Med ?

    If people were aware of how close politicians were to Bankers, it would make their relationship with media owners look like a ‘one night’ stand. There are many MP’s in parliament, who still have working connections with Banks.

  46. @ Billy Bob
    “Question Time last week was notable for the extent to which Justine Greening was groaned at by the audience every time she resurrected the “it’s all Labour’s fault” line.”

    OK. But July 2nd post from A Wells stated:

    “Populus last month [asked people] to rate five different items seperately [tut!] in terms of how much they were to blame for the present economic situation, and then taking those who rated each one at 8/10 or more. 64% of people blamed the behaviour of the banks prior to the credit crunch, 57% the crisis in the Eurozone, 49% the last Labour government’s borrowing, 47% banks not lending and 37% the current government’s cuts.”

    2 Points.
    1. Labour is not out of the woods re the crisis.
    2. The public condemns the banks’ past & current behaviour. Perhaps they will simply blame the bank bosses for the Libor crisis & not entangle themselves in debates about regulation.

  47. On the subject of woods: it’s a pity the froth about Diamond & the Libor will distract attention from today’s Independent Panel on Forestry report, recommending that state-owned forests should not be sold off & that forests/urban woodlands/street trees should be increased, given their public benefits..

    C. Spelman, chastened by last year’s sell-off debacle/U-turn, has undertaken to accept the main recommendations of the report.

  48. @Robbiealive

    Fair point, but the 64%, 57%, 49% and 47% suggest the Labour factor is one of a number, rather than far and away the most important.

    I think the actual quote was more like “You’re supposed to be the government.”
    Ministers starting every sentence with what is basically a 2010 electioneering stance just adds to the impression of an administration that is still floundering two years on.

    “Labour is not out of the woods re the crisis.”

    Agreed. Rachel Reeves is one of too few who have taken seriously the task of rebutting “Labour’s mess” narratives in the media.

  49. Billy Bob

    “Question Time last week form Luton was notable for the extent to which Justine Greening was groaned at by the audience every time she resurrected the “it’s all Labour’s fault” line. The biggest applause was for a member of the audience who said she was sick and tired of it: “You’re the government now”. ”

    As one who relies on eye of newt and toe of frog as much as the polls, that suggest to me that unless there is a change of direction, we will get to spontaneous laughter quite soon.

    Facts and arguments are one thing, disagreement by committed opponents is another, but a government that is widely regarded, by those who may be open minded and suspicious of partisan arguments, as the subject of ridicule, both at home and abroad, will not be re-elected.

    We are not there yet.

    Like Peter Kellner’s argument about the timetable of economic recovery, there comes a point when a change if it comes, is just too late. One can quibble about PK’s timetable guesses, and exactly how much of an improvement in the economy or people’s personal feel-good perception is enough, but the essential truth is that opinion does not change overnight.

    The height of the hill the Conservatives have to climb is but one factor: the time they have got left to climb it is the other, and we know that that decreases one day at a time. Conservatives may think there is plenty of time and that may be true to-day, but tomorrow? Next week?

    By election day, “all Labour’s fault” will not help the Conservatives. Nor the week before. Nor the week before that.

    In fact it will at some point become counter productive.

    That point is very close if not already passed.

    Something else is needed urgently however enjoyable “all Labour’s fault” is to tribal followers.

  50. @ Anthony

    I think you’re must be using different data. The figures I’ve seen show: From 2005 until 2009 the Sun was bucking the trend of falling circulation experienced by other papers; its sales were stable yoy to 2009! After Labour lost the 2010 election, its circulation fell faster than the circulation of the other tabloids.

    If you want to post a link to your stats, I’ll go figure out where the disconnect is.
    8-)

1 2 3 6