This week’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%. The nine point lead is very much in line with the average Labour leads of ten points or so that YouGov have been showing for the last fortnight.

Tonight we are also due a new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph using their “wisdom index” (that is, averaging people’s predictions for the shares of the vote if there was an election tomorrow, rather than asking how people would vote in an election tomorrow). I’m not online tonight and haven’t seen the figures yet, so feel free to discuss them here.

As usual, I’ll do a proper post sometime tomorrow.


54 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 43, LD 9, UKIP 6”

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  1. I read an article recently where a Scottish man was revealed to be related to the first human women that was likely to have stood on UK soil. They had a blood test and the DNA linked him back some how.

    It got me thinking, how people from Scotland are so linked to all things British, that it might be a little odd, to have a separation. As the issue is essentially about having power, why don’t the SNP think about working with other UK parties to move more powers to all regions of the UK and to stop London being at the centre of most decisions.

    This is not re-opening the debate in independence, as AW has just asked us not to do. But a question about the strategy of parties, who are interesting in de-centralising power to the regions. Are the UK public in favour of this in general or do they not care ? When there have been referendums on regional government, the results have been mixed. The reason for this, is that people did not want to create any more politicians. However, I wonder whether there is a way to use the current members of parliament in dual roles, perhaps with their newly election HOL colleagues.

  2. These are the final two paragraphs of Cameron’s Telegraph article;

    “As we get closer to the end point, we will need to consider how best to get the full-hearted support of the British people whether it is in a general election or in a referendum.

    As I have said, for me the two words “Europe” and “referendum” can go together, particularly if we really are proposing a change in how our country is governed, but let us get the people a real choice first.”

    To me, this seems pretty clear in its lack of clarity. Cameron rules out an in/out vote in Friday’s press conference. I suspect this was not what he intended to do, but I could be wrong.

    The penultimate paragraph above suggests he is lining up for the 2015 election manifesto to be the ‘real choice’ for the British people, avoiding the difficulties of a referendum but without ruling it our entirely.

    Polling wise, I’m struggling to see where this leads. The immediate reaction seems to be one of discontent on the right, and I suspect UKIP will make hay with this. I don’t think this makes Cameron look any more decisive than of late, and we are still a long way from a settled policy. Interestingly, with some observers claiming Ed needs detailed policies as an opposition leader, we could level the same critique at the PM, with the added spice that he actually needs a policy as he’s running the country right now.

    I guess much of the polling impact of this will be defined by the media reaction. Today MoS says – “A source close to the Prime Minister said: ‘It is time to open the door on this matter and consider a referendum. It could either be a standalone referendum or it could be part of the Conservative manifesto at the next Election.’ ” It’s article is generally favourable, but is rather at odds with what Cameron actually wrote in the Telegraph.

    Clearly, the Mail is hoping for the promise of an in/out or something close to that, already rejected by Cameron but an option apparently being kept alive by No 10 briefings.

    If the position unravels in the eyes of the Mail, it will look again like marching troops t the top of the hill and down again. I rather suspect Cameron will either take another hit from the right on this, or feel bounced into a policy position he isn’t fully comfortable on this.

    Once again, I get the sense that there is no clear vision here, but policy is being dictated more by headlines than core beliefs.

  3. @ Statgeek

    Objective stuff.
    ————————
    It was Saturday night; I was having fun. Anthony is kind enough to take it as it’s intended, so long as it doesn’t provoke a car crash of responses. :-)

  4. I thought I was finally out of moderation?
    Alex Salmond would make an outstanding UK prime minister ,and in my opinion could suck up quite a few of the UK electorate.He should drop the Scottish bit in the party name ,And stick UKNP out there .People are craving a left of centre party,and he has one.He may be very surprised ,and become the next major party of the UK.Seeing as the Liberals will be toast come 2015 he has an opportunity to clean up some leftish voters that just can’t vote Labour.

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