I was out last night, so missed two new polls. TNS-BMRB’s latest poll, conducted over the weekend, has topline figures of CON 32%(+2), LAB 40%(-3), LDEM 10%(nc), Others 18%(+1). Changes are from TNS’s last poll conducted straight after the local elections when Labour were enjoying the halo effect of their local election success. Meanwhile YouGov’s daily poll yesterday had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 6%.


161 Responses to “Last night’s TNS-BMRB and YouGov polls”

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  1. RAF.
    Great course that was.
    Something called: Curriculum 2,000 ruined all that.

    Modularised.
    Resits.
    AS disrupts Year 12/Lower Sixth.
    Course Work, allegedly often written by private tutors

  2. The switch at the end of the 1980s to Absolute marking from the previous system of Relative marking makes it pretty well impossible to compare present day A level and GCSE grades with those awarded in earlier years.
    The A level History – WJEC Board – I sat in the early 70s consiste of two 3 hour exam papers each of which required four essay answers.. Despite the fact that A levels were then much more elitist – being taken by a far narrower section of pupils in a given academic year, the B and C grades were seen as ‘Good’ and an A as something pretty exceptional. That is far from being the case today – and I am confident that the vast majority of those who ended up with Bs and Cs in the 60s, 70s and even 80s would not have too much difficulty managing to get an A today..
    The same applies , of course to degree classifications. A 2:2 from the 60s anf 70s is surely the equivalent of a good 2:1 nowadays.

  3. Another botched policy announcement – it doesn’t really matter if the policy is any good or not, it’s got so mired in controversy about the way it’s been leaked that it will probably die a death.

    Makes you wonder what would have happened if Clegg had done the same over the health bill (rather than supporting it, then claiming it needed to be changed, then supporting it, then claiming it needed to be changed again).

  4. @Graham;

    In your day, the A mark was fixed at 9% of pupils, whereas today about 8% of pupils get the A*. So, a very rough guide to translating grades from the 1980s is to shift everything down one, so A* to A, A to B, B to C, etc. I can distinctly reading a paper which studied grade inflation in the UK and agreed that grades now are about 1 tier below what they were before the abolishment of the relative system, although it varied by subject – Maths was the biggest victim, with 2 grade difference.

  5. It all seemed very salad days today didn’t it?

    In a few minutes we will learn if PR wins over substance.

    Meanwhile, I note that others are experiencing what I suspect many of us are. The political party that picks up what to do about EMI care has a winner on its hands, going into 2015 GE.

  6. @ Top Hat,
    I would agree that the grade inflation does vary according to subject.
    The 8% now obtaining A* grades of course does relate to a much larger pool of pupils than the 9% awarded As back in the 70s.. Back then even at my Boys Grammar School only the more academic went on from O levels into the Sixth form – wheras today A levels are taken by many who 30+ years ago would have ended up in Secondary Moderns.

  7. Labour lead on 10: Latest YouGov/The Sun results 21st June CON 33%, LAB 43%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%; APP -37 y-g.co/NYZIq0

  8. 10% gap is back.

    8% also is back for LD and UKIP

  9. new thread on the new poll

  10. HOWARD

    Thanks for your informative reply.

  11. Colin – Some years ago a pro footballer (John Arne Riise) had his payslip leaked. Those in the blogosphere to the left of us commented on the extraordinary size of his monthly gross pay, whereas those to the right of us (ahem) commented on the extraordinary size of his PAYE tax deduction.

    I remember Ruud Gullit’s negotiations being characterised by leaks of unironic demands for “netto” money (ie, the company pays the tax bill as a sort of extra accounting fillip, not a reference to the discount grocer.)

    There are plenty of arty lefties who “manage” their tax, and presumably many (Michael Caine was one of the most vocal) who supported the ideas that Laffer curved out a career on (I can’t think of any celebrity arty lefties who think income tax is as pragmatic an issue as Laffer did).

    DC really ought to address the loopholes employed by all if he’s going to pick on one. Maybe he is, but I think the delay on transparing his front-benchers’ affairs speaks volumes.

    The idea of “tax management” is a bit of a non-starter for someone who is trying to repair his appeal to the “many”. I wonder how many of his target electorate can envisage such control over their taxes that allows them to “manage”. Most pay PAYE and can’t afford to save at all, let alone “manage” the HMRC in the way that the “Few” are encouraged to do by DC.

    I’m wondering whether the Murdoch “stable” will make this tougher than they wouold have done pre-Leveson.

    I’m also rather hoping that Leveson’s next job might be to examine the culture, practices and ethics of accountants, including :

    a contacts and relationships between the big four and the HMRC, and the conduct of each

    b contacts and the relationship between big earners and politicians

    c the extent to which current policy has failed

    d the extent to which lessons from previous failings have not been learned.

    etc.

    I suspect the benighted Lord would leap into a ditch and expire if he thought such a reward awaited him!

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